From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring the influence of similarity on category-specific effects

There is evidence for both advantages and disadvantages in normal recognition of living over nonliving things. This paradox has been attributed to high levels of perceptual similarity within living categories having a different effect on performance in different contexts. However, since living things are intrinsically more similar to each other, previous studies could not determine whether the various category effects were due to perceptual similarity, or to other characteristics of living things. We used novel animal and vehicle stimuli that were matched for similarity to measure the influence of perceptual similarity in different contexts. We found that displaying highly similar objects in blocked sets reduced their perceived similarity, eliminating the detrimental effect on naming performance. Experiment 1 demonstrated a disadvantage for highly similar objects in name learning and name verification using mixed groups of similar and dissimilar animals and vehicles. Experiment 2 demonstrated no disadvantage for the same highly similar objects when they were blocked, e.g., similar animals presented alone. Thus, perceptual similarity, rather than other characteristics particular to living things, is affected by context, and could create apparent category effects under certain testing conditions.

Transformational leadership and moral reasoning

Terms such as moral and ethical leadership are used widely in theory, yet little systematic research has related a sociomoral dimension to leadership in organizations. This study investigated whether managers' moral reasoning (n=132) was associated with the transformational and transactional leadership behaviors they exhibited as perceived by their subordinates (n=407). Managers completed the Defining Issues Test (J. R. Rest, 1990), whereas their subordinates completed the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (B. M. Bass & B. J. Avolio, 1995). Analysis of covariance indicated that managers scoring in the highest group of the moral-reasoning distribution exhibited more transformational leadership behaviors than leaders scoring in the lowest group. As expected, there was no relationship between moral-reasoning group and transactional leadership behaviors. Implications for leadership development are discussed.

Applying qualitative reasoning to finance

Qualitative reasoning has traditionally been applied in the domain of physical systems, where there are well established and understood laws governing the behaviour of each `component' in the system. Such application has shown that it is possible to produce models which can be used for explaining and predicting the behaviour of physical phenomena and also trouble-shooting. The principles underlying the theory ensure that the models are robust and exhibit consistent behaviour under all conditions. This research examines the validity of applying the theory in the financial domain where such laws may not exist or if they do, may not be universally applicable. In particular, it investigates how far these principles and techniques may be applied in the construction of financial analysis models. Because of the inherent differences in the nature of these two domains, it is argued that a different qualitative value system ought to be employed. The dissertation enlarges on the constraints this places on model descriptions and the effect it may have on the power and usefulness of the resulting models. It also describes the implementation of a system that investigates the implications of applying this theory by way of testing it on situations drawn from both text-books and published financial information.

Hierarchical case-based reasoning to support knitwear design

Knitwear design is a creative activity that is hard to automate using the computer. The production of the associated knitting pattern, however, is repetitive, time-consuming and error-prone, calling for automation. Our objectives are two-fold: to facilitate the design and to ease the burden of calculations and checks in pattern production. We conduct a feasibility study for applying case-based reasoning in knitwear design: we describe appropriate methods and show their application.

The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Evidence of a transition from perceptual to category induction in 3- to 9-year-old children

We examined whether inductive reasoning development is better characterized by accounts assuming an early category bias versus an early perceptual bias. We trained 264 children aged 3 to 9 years to categorize novel insects using a rule that directly pitted category membership against appearance. This was followed by an induction task with perceptual distractors at different levels of featural similarity. An additional 52 children were given the same training followed by an induction task with alternative stimuli. Categorization performance was consistently high, however we found a gradual transition from a perceptual bias in our youngest children to a category bias around age 6-7. In addition, children of all ages were equally distracted by higher levels of featural similarity. The transition is unlikely to be due to an increased ability to inhibit perceptual distractors. Instead, we argue that the transition is driven by a fundamental change in children’s understanding of category membership.

Development of reasoning:Behavioral evidence to support reinforcement over cognitive control accounts

Speed's theory makes two predictions for the development of analogical reasoning. Firstly, young children should not be able to reason analogically due to an undeveloped PFC neural network. Secondly, category knowledge enables the reinforcement of structural features over surface features, and thus the development of sophisticated, analogical, reasoning. We outline existing studies that support these predictions and highlight some critical remaining issues. Specifically, we argue that the development of inhibition must be directly compared alongside the development of reasoning strategies in order to support Speed's account. © 2010 Psychology Press.

Contradiction in universal and particular reasoning

A wide range of essential reasoning tasks rely on contradiction identification, a cornerstone of human rationality, communication and debate founded on the inversion of the logical operators "Every" and "Some." A high-density electroencephalographic (EEG) study was performed in 11 normal young adults. The cerebral network involved in the identification of contradiction included the orbito-frontal and anterior-cingulate cortices and the temporo-polar cortices. The event-related dynamic of this network showed an early negative deflection lasting 500 ms after sentence presentation. This was followed by a positive deflection lasting 1.5 s, which was different for the two logical operators. A lesser degree of network activation (either in neuron number or their level of phase locking or both) occurred while processing statements with "Some," suggesting that this was a relatively simpler scenario with one example to be figured out, instead of the many examples or the absence of a counterexample searched for while processing statements with "Every." A self-generated reward system seemed to resonate the recruited circuitry when the contradictory task is successfully completed.

Similarity between class A and class B G-protein-coupled receptors exemplified through calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor modelling and mutagenesis studies

Modelling class B G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) using class A GPCR structural templates is difficult due to lack of homology. The plant GPCR, GCR1, has homology to both class A and class B GPCRs. We have used this to generate a class A-class B alignment, and by incorporating maximum lagged correlation of entropy and hydrophobicity into a consensus score, we have been able to align receptor transmembrane regions. We have applied this analysis to generate active and inactive homology models of the class B calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor, and have supported it with site-directed mutagenesis data using 122 CGRP receptor residues and 144 published mutagenesis results on other class B GPCRs. The variation of sequence variability with structure, the analysis of polarity violations, the alignment of group-conserved residues and the mutagenesis results at 27 key positions were particularly informative in distinguishing between the proposed and plausible alternative alignments. Furthermore, we have been able to associate the key molecular features of the class B GPCR signalling machinery with their class A counterparts for the first time. These include the [K/R]KLH motif in intracellular loop 1, [I/L]xxxL and KxxK at the intracellular end of TM5 and TM6, the NPXXY/VAVLY motif on TM7 and small group-conserved residues in TM1, TM2, TM3 and TM7. The equivalent of the class A DRY motif is proposed to involve Arg(2.39), His(2.43) and Glu(3.46), which makes a polar lock with T(6.37). These alignments and models provide useful tools for understanding class B GPCR function.

Exploring the effectiveness of similarity-based visualisations for colour-based image retrieval

In April 2009, Google Images added a filter for narrowing search results by colour. Several other systems for searching image databases by colour were also released around this time. These colour-based image retrieval systems enable users to search image databases either by selecting colours from a graphical palette (i.e., query-by-colour), by drawing a representation of the colour layout sought (i.e., query-by-sketch), or both. It was comments left by readers of online articles describing these colour-based image retrieval systems that provided us with the inspiration for this research. We were surprised to learn that the underlying query-based technology used in colour-based image retrieval systems today remains remarkably similar to that of systems developed nearly two decades ago. Discovering this ageing retrieval approach, as well as uncovering a large user demographic requiring image search by colour, made us eager to research more effective approaches for colour-based image retrieval. In this thesis, we detail two user studies designed to compare the effectiveness of systems adopting similarity-based visualisations, query-based approaches, or a combination of both, for colour-based image retrieval. In contrast to query-based approaches, similarity-based visualisations display and arrange database images so that images with similar content are located closer together on screen than images with dissimilar content. This removes the need for queries, as users can instead visually explore the database using interactive navigation tools to retrieve images from the database. As we found existing evaluation approaches to be unreliable, we describe how we assessed and compared systems adopting similarity-based visualisations, query-based approaches, or both, meaningfully and systematically using our Mosaic Test - a user-based evaluation approach in which evaluation study participants complete an image mosaic of a predetermined target image using the colour-based image retrieval system under evaluation.