916 resultados para modeling and prediction


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One of the leading motivations behind the multilingual semantic web is to make resources accessible digitally in an online global multilingual context. Consequently, it is fundamental for knowledge bases to find a way to manage multilingualism and thus be equipped with those procedures for its conceptual modelling. In this context, the goal of this paper is to discuss how common-sense knowledge and cultural knowledge are modelled in a multilingual framework. More particularly, multilingualism and conceptual modelling are dealt with from the perspective of FunGramKB, a lexico-conceptual knowledge base for natural language understanding. This project argues for a clear division between the lexical and the conceptual dimensions of knowledge. Moreover, the conceptual layer is organized into three modules, which result from a strong commitment towards capturing semantic knowledge (Ontology), procedural knowledge (Cognicon) and episodic knowledge (Onomasticon). Cultural mismatches are discussed and formally represented at the three conceptual levels of FunGramKB.

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Abstract. The performance objectives used for the formative assessment of com- plex skills are generally set through text-based analytic rubrics[1]. Moreover, video modeling examples are a widely applied method of observational learning, providing students with context-rich modeling examples of complex skills that act as an analogy for problem solving [1]. The purpose of this theoretical paper is to synthesize the components of video modeling and rubrics to support the formative assessment of complex skills. Based on theory, we argue that application of the developed Video Enhanced Rubrics (VER) fosters learners’ development of mental models, quality of provided feedback by various actors and finally, the learners mastery of complex skills.

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BACKGROUND:
Palliative care focuses on supporting patients diagnosed with advanced, incurable disease; it is 'family centered', with the patient and their family (the unit of care) being core to all its endeavours. However, approximately 30-50% of carers experience psychological distress which is typically under recognised and consequently not addressed. Family meetings (FM) are recommended as a means whereby health professionals, together with family carers and patients discuss psychosocial issues and plan care; however there is minimal empirical research to determine the net effect of these meetings and the resources required to implement them systematically. The aims of this study were to evaluate: (1) if family carers of hospitalised patients with advanced disease (referred to a specialist palliative care in-patient setting or palliative care consultancy service) who receive a FM report significantly lower psychological distress (primary outcome), fewer unmet needs, increased quality of life and feel more prepared for the caregiving role; (2) if patients who receive the FM experience appropriate quality of end-of-life care, as demonstrated by fewer hospital admissions, fewer emergency department presentations, fewer intensive care unit hours, less chemotherapy treatment (in last 30 days of life), and higher likelihood of death in the place of their choice and access to supportive care services; (3) the optimal time point to deliver FM and; (4) to determine the cost-benefit and resource implications of implementing FM meetings into routine practice.
METHODS:
Cluster type trial design with two way randomization for aims 1-3 and health economic modeling and qualitative interviews with health for professionals for aim 4.
DISCUSSION:
The research will determine whether FMs have positive practical and psychological impacts on the family, impacts on health service usage, and financial benefits to the health care sector. This study will also provide clear guidance on appropriate timing in the disease/care trajectory to provide a family meeting.

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A modified UNIFAC–VISCO group contribution method was developed for the correlation and prediction of viscosity of ionic liquids as a function of temperature at 0.1 MPa. In this original approach, cations and anions were regarded as peculiar molecular groups. The significance of this approach comes from the ability to calculate the viscosity of mixtures of ionic liquids as well as pure ionic liquids. Binary interaction parameters for selected cations and anions were determined by fitting the experimental viscosity data available in literature for selected ionic liquids. The temperature dependence on the viscosity of the cations and anions were fitted to a Vogel–Fulcher–Tamman behavior. Binary interaction parameters and VFT type fitting parameters were then used to determine the viscosity of pure and mixtures of ionic liquids with different combinations of cations and anions to ensure the validity of the prediction method. Consequently, the viscosities of binary ionic liquid mixtures were then calculated by using this prediction method. In this work, the viscosity data of pure ionic liquids and of binary mixtures of ionic liquids are successfully calculated from 293.15 K to 363.15 K at 0.1 MPa. All calculated viscosity data showed excellent agreement with experimental data with a relative absolute average deviation lower than 1.7%.

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The notion of sediment-transport capacity has been engrained in geomorphological and related literature for over 50 years, although its earliest roots date back explicitly to Gilbert in fluvial geomorphology in the 1870s and implicitly to eighteenth to nineteenth century developments in engineering. Despite cross fertilization between different process domains, there seem to have been independent inventions of the idea in aeolian geomorphology by Bagnold in the 1930s and in hillslope studies by Ellison in the 1940s. Here we review the invention and development of the idea of transport capacity in the fluvial, aeolian, coastal, hillslope, débris flow, and glacial process domains. As these various developments have occurred, different definitions have been used, which makes it both a difficult concept to test, and one that may lead to poor communications between those working in different domains of geomorphology. We argue that the original relation between the power of a flow and its ability to transport sediment can be challenged for three reasons. First, as sediment becomes entrained in a flow, the nature of the flow changes and so it is unreasonable to link the capacity of the water or wind only to the ability of the fluid to move sediment. Secondly, environmental sediment transport is complicated, and the range of processes involved in most movements means that simple relationships are unlikely to hold, not least because the movement of sediment often changes the substrate, which in turn affects the flow conditions. Thirdly, the inherently stochastic nature of sediment transport means that any capacity relationships do not scale either in time or in space. Consequently, new theories of sediment transport are needed to improve understanding and prediction and to guide measurement and management of all geomorphic systems.

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Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

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Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

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The aerosols in the atmosphere play major role in the radiation balance of the Earthatmosphere system. Direct and indirect impact of aerosols on the weather and climate still remains as a topic to be investigated in detail. The effect of aerosols on the radiation budget and thereby circulation pattern is important and requires further study. A detailed analysis of the aerosol properties, their variability and meteorological processes that affect the aerosol properties and distribution over the Indian region is performed in the thesis. The doctoral thesis entitled “Characteristics of aerosols over the Indian region and their variability associated with atmospheric conditions” contains 7 chapters. This thesis presents results on the analysis on the distribution (spatial and temporal) and characteristics of the aerosols over the Indian region and adjoining seas. Regional and stationwise data were analysed and methods such as modeling and statistical analysis are implemented to understand the aerosol properties, classification and transportation. Chapter-1 presents a brief introduction on the aerosols, their measurement techniques, impact of aerosols on the atmospheric radiation budget, climatic and geographic features of the study area and the literature review on the previous studies. It provides a basic understanding in the field of study and objective of the thesis. Definition of the aerosols, their sources/sinks and classification of the particles according to optical and microphysical properties are described. Different measurement techniques such as sampling and remote sensing methods are explained in detail. Physical parameters used to describe aerosol properties and effect of aerosols on the radiation distribution are also discussed. The chapter also explains the objectives of the thesis and description of climatic features of the study area.

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Current research shows a relationship between healthcare architecture and patient-related Outcomes. The planning and designing of new healthcare environments is a complex process; the needs of the various end-users of the environment must be considered, including the patients, the patients’ significant others, and the staff. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of healthcare professionals participating in group modelling utilizing system dynamics in the pre-design phase of new healthcare environments. We engaged healthcare professionals in a series of workshops using system dynamics to discuss the planning of healthcare environments in the beginning of a construction, and then interviewed them about their experience. An explorative and qualitative design was used to describe participants’ experiences of participating in the group modelling projects. Participants (n=20) were recruited from a larger intervention study using group modeling and system dynamics in planning and designing projects. The interviews were analysed by qualitative content analysis. Two themes were formed, representing the experiences in the group modeling process: ‘Partaking in the G-M created knowledge and empowerment’and ‘Partaking in the G-M was different from what was expected and required time and skills’. The method can support participants in design teams to focus more on their healthcare organization, their care activities and their aims rather than focusing on detailed layout solutions. This clarification is important when decisions about the design are discussed and prepared and will most likely lead to greater readiness for future building process.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of “cultural adaptation” from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08