Local-Median Method of Forecasting for Regression Time Series under Outliers

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M20, 62-07, 62J05, 62P20.

A method of fundamental solutions for radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problems

We propose and investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problem (BHCP) in a solid or hollow cylinder. In the BHCP, the initial temperature is to be determined from the temperature measurements at a later time. This is an inverse and ill-posed problem, and we employ and generalize the MFS regularization approach [B.T. Johansson and D. Lesnic, A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction, Eng. Anal. Boundary Elements 32 (2008), pp. 697–703] for the time-dependent heat equation to obtain a stable and accurate numerical approximation with small computational cost.

A method of fundamental solutions for theaxisymmetric backward heat equation

We propose and investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problem (BHCP) in a solid or hollow cylinder. In the BHCP, the initial temperature is to be determined from the temperature measurements at a later time. This is an inverse and ill-posed problem, and we employ and generalize the MFS regularization approach [B.T. Johansson and D. Lesnic, A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction, Eng. Anal. Boundary Elements 32 (2008), pp. 697–703] for the time-dependent heat equation to obtain a stable and accurate numerical approximation with small computational cost.

Fenntarthatósági szempontok beépítése a beszállító értékelésébe a DEA/CI összetett indikátorok módszere alkalmazásával (Integrating sustainability criteria in supplier evaluation with application of the method of of DEA/CI complex indicators)

A környezeti hatások rendszerint túlmutatnak egy vállalat határain, éppen ezért az ellátási lánc kontextusban a környezeti szempontok érvényesítése során fontos szerep jut a beszerzési döntéseknek is. Számos olyan példát lehetne említeni, amikor egy adott szempont szerint egy alternatíva környezetileg előnyös, de az ellátási lánc egészét nézve már környezetterhelő. A környezeti hatások ellátási lánc szinten való mérése azonban komoly kihívásokat jelent. Ezzel jelentős kutatásokat és fejlesztéseket inspirált a téma. Az egyik olyan terület, amelyben komoly kutatási eredmények születtek, az a környezeti szempontok beszállítói értékelésbe való beépítése. A kutatások ezen irányához csatlakozva a szerzők tanulmányunkban azt keresik, hogyan lehet meghatározni az egyik legáltalánosabban használt szállítóértékelési módszerben, a súlyozott pontrendszerben egy adott szemponthoz azt a súlyt, amely mellett az adott szempont már döntésbefolyásoló tényezővé válik. Ehhez a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) összetett indikátorok (Composite Indicators, CI) módszerét alkalmazzák. A szempontok közös súlyának fontossága megállapításához a lineáris programozás elméletét használják. _____ Management decisions often have an environmental effect not just within the company, but outside as well, this is why supply chain context is highlighted in literature. Measuring environmental issues of supply decisions raise a lot of problems from methodological and practical point of view. This inspires a rapidly growing literature as a lot of studies were published focusing on how to incorporate environmental issues into supplier evaluation. This paper contributes to this stream of research as it develops a method to help weight selection. In the authors’ paper the method of Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) is used to study the extension of traditional supplier selection methods with environmental factors. The selection of the weight system can control the result of the selection process.

Az optimális ár meghatározásának módszere az értékteremtés szolgálatában (The method of determining the optimal price for the service of value creation)

A tanulmány a mikroökonómia eszközrendszerét és a hazai gépjárműpiac 2013-as adatait segítségül hívva egy új módszert mutat be az ármeghatározás területén. A kutatás központi kérdése az, hogy hol található az a pont, amikor a fogyasztó elégedett a kínált minőséggel és árral – lehetőleg megfelelő időben – és a vállalat is elégedett a megszerzett profittal. A tanulmányban tehát az ármeghatározás során központi szerepet játszik a minőség és az idő, mint értékteremtő funkció. Az elemzés egyik legfőbb következtetése, hogy a profitmaximumból levezetett optimális ár a minőség és az idő különböző paraméterei mellett meghatározható. A módszer segítségével a vállalatok közgazdasági eszközrendszer segítségével kapnak egy új szemléletet működési paramétereik és egyben versenyprioritásaik (ár, költség, minőségszint, idő) felállításához. _____ The study points to a new method for determining price with the tools of microeconomics and data of the Hungarian car market. The focus of the research is on where to find the point where the consumer is satisfied with the quality and price offered – preferably right time – and the company is satisfied with the profit achieved. In this study, therefore, in setting prices plays a central role the quality and time as a value-added feature. One of the main conclusions of the analysis is that the optimal price can be determined by various parameters of the quality and time. The method of using the economic tools help companies get a new perspective and to set up their optimal operating parameters (price, cost, quality level, time).

An automatic method of above-water iceberg 3-D profiling based on autonomous surface craft (ASC) using surface images and LIDAR

This thesis reports on a novel method to build a 3-D model of the above-water portion of icebergs using surface imaging. The goal is to work towards the automation of iceberg surveys, allowing an Autonomous Surface Craft (ASC) to acquire shape and size information. After collecting data and images, the core software algorithm is made up of three parts: occluding contour finding, volume intersection, and parameter estimation. A software module is designed that could be used on the ASC to perform automatic and fast processing of above-water surface image data to determine iceberg shape and size measurement and determination. The resolution of the method is calculated using data from the iceberg database of the Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD). The method was investigated using data from field trials conducted through the summer of 2014 by surveying 8 icebergs during 3 expeditions. The results were analyzed to determine iceberg characteristics. Limitations of this method are addressed including its accuracy. Surface imaging system and LIDAR system are developed to profile the above-water iceberg in 2015.

Study of the calibration method of pressure-velocity probes and its application in a field of progressive plane waves

This dissertation presents a calibration procedure for a pressure velocity probe. The dissertation is divided into four main chapters. The first chapter is divided into six main sections. In the firsts two, the wave equation in fluids and the velocity of sound in gases are calculated, the third section contains a general solution of the wave equation in the case of plane acoustic waves. Section four and five report the definition of the acoustic impedance and admittance, and the practical units the sound level is measured with, i.e. the decibel scale. Finally, the last section of the chapter is about the theory linked to the frequency analysis of a sound wave and includes the analysis of sound in bands and the discrete Fourier analysis, with the definition of some important functions. The second chapter describes different reference field calibration procedures that are used to calibrate the P-V probes, between them the progressive plane wave method, which is that has been used in this work. Finally, the last section of the chapter contains a description of the working principles of the two transducers that have been used, with a focus on the velocity one. The third chapter of the dissertation is devoted to the explanation of the calibration set up and the instruments used for the data acquisition and analysis. Since software routines were extremely important, this chapter includes a dedicated section on them and the proprietary routines most used are thoroughly explained. Finally, there is the description of the work that has been done, which is identified with three different phases, where the data acquired and the results obtained are presented. All the graphs and data reported were obtained through the Matlab® routine. As for the last chapter, it briefly presents all the work that has been done as well as an excursus on a new probe and on the way the procedure implemented in this dissertation could be applied in the case of a general field.

Dynamic method of stiffness identification in impacting systems for percussive drilling applications

Peer reviewed

Factors associated with self-cutting as a method of self-harm: findings from the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self-Harm

Background: Research suggests that patients presenting to hospital with self-cutting differ from those with intentional overdose in demographic and clinical characteristics. However, large-scale national studies comparing self-cutting patients with those using other self-harm methods are lacking. We aimed to compare hospital-treated self-cutting and intentional overdose, to examine the role of gender in moderating these differences, and examine the characteristics and outcomes of those patients presenting with combined self-cutting and overdose. Methods: Between 2003 and 2010, the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self-Harm recorded 42,585 self-harm presentations to Irish hospital emergency departments meeting the study inclusion criteria. Data were obtained on demographic and clinical characteristics by independent data registration officers. Results: Compared with overdose only, involvement of self-cutting (with or without overdose) was significantly more common in males than females, with an overrepresentation of males aged <35 years. Independent of gender, involvement of self-cutting (with or without overdose) was significantly associated with younger age, city residence, repetition within 30 days and repetition within a year (females only). Factors associated with self-cutting as the sole method were no fixed abode/living in an institution, presenting outside 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., not consuming alcohol and repetition between 31 days and 1 year (males only). Conclusion: The demographic and clinical differences between self-harm patients underline the presence of different subgroups with implications for service provision and prevention of repeated self-harm. Given the relationship between self-cutting and subsequent repetition, service providers need to ensure that adequate follow-up arrangements and supports are in place for the patient.

Iterative reconstruction as a novel method of radiation dose reduction at computed tomography in patients with Crohn's disease

Prior work of our research group, that quantified the alarming levels of radiation dose to patients with Crohn’s disease from medical imaging and the notable shift towards CT imaging making these patients an at risk group, provided context for this work. CT delivers some of the highest doses of ionising radiation in diagnostic radiology. Once a medical imaging examination is deemed justified, there is an onus on the imaging team to endeavour to produce diagnostic quality CT images at the lowest possible radiation dose to that patient. The fundamental limitation with conventional CT raw data reconstruction was the inherent coupling of administered radiation dose with observed image noise – the lower the radiation dose, the noisier the image. The renaissance, rediscovery and refinement of iterative reconstruction removes this limitation allowing either an improvement in image quality without increasing radiation dose or maintenance of image quality at a lower radiation dose compared with traditional image reconstruction. This thesis is fundamentally an exercise in optimisation in clinical CT practice with the objectives of assessment of iterative reconstruction as a method for improvement of image quality in CT, exploration of the associated potential for radiation dose reduction, and development of a new split dose CT protocol with the aim of achieving and validating diagnostic quality submillisiever t CT imaging in patients with Crohn’s disease. In this study, we investigated the interplay of user-selected parameters on radiation dose and image quality in phantoms and cadavers, comparing traditional filtered back projection (FBP) with iterative reconstruction algorithms. This resulted in the development of an optimised, refined and appropriate split dose protocol for CT of the abdomen and pelvis in clinical patients with Crohn’s disease allowing contemporaneous acquisition of both modified and conventional dose CT studies. This novel algorithm was then applied to 50 patients with a suspected acute complication of known Crohn’s disease and the raw data reconstructed with FBP, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASiR) and model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR). Conventional dose CT images with FBP reconstruction were used as the reference standard with which the modified dose CT images were compared in terms of radiation dose, diagnostic findings and image quality indices. As there are multiple possible user-selected strengths of ASiR available, these were compared in terms of image quality to determine the optimal strength for this modified dose CT protocol. Modified dose CT images with MBIR were also compared with contemporaneous abdominal radiograph, where performed, in terms of diagnostic yield and radiation dose. Finally, attenuation measurements in organs, tissues, etc. with each reconstruction algorithm were compared to assess for preservation of tissue characterisation capabilities. In the phantom and cadaveric models, both forms of iterative reconstruction examined (ASiR and MBIR) were superior to FBP across a wide variety of imaging protocols, with MBIR superior to ASiR in all areas other than reconstruction speed. We established that ASiR appears to work to a target percentage noise reduction whilst MBIR works to a target residual level of absolute noise in the image. Modified dose CT images reconstructed with both ASiR and MBIR were non-inferior to conventional dose CT with FBP in terms of diagnostic findings, despite reduced subjective and objective indices of image quality. Mean dose reductions of 72.9-73.5% were achieved with the modified dose protocol with a mean effective dose of 1.26mSv. MBIR was again demonstrated superior to ASiR in terms of image quality. The overall optimal ASiR strength for the modified dose protocol used in this work is ASiR 80%, as this provides the most favourable balance of peak subjective image quality indices with less objective image noise than the corresponding conventional dose CT images reconstructed with FBP. Despite guidelines to the contrary, abdominal radiographs are still often used in the initial imaging of patients with a suspected complication of Crohn’s disease. We confirmed the superiority of modified dose CT with MBIR over abdominal radiographs at comparable doses in detection of Crohn’s disease and non-Crohn’s disease related findings. Finally, we demonstrated (in phantoms, cadavers and in vivo) that attenuation values do not change significantly across reconstruction algorithms meaning preserved tissue characterisation capabilities with iterative reconstruction. Both adaptive statistical and model based iterative reconstruction algorithms represent feasible methods of facilitating acquisition diagnostic quality CT images of the abdomen and pelvis in patients with Crohn’s disease at markedly reduced radiation doses. Our modified dose CT protocol allows dose savings of up to 73.5% compared with conventional dose CT, meaning submillisievert imaging is possible in many of these patients.

Training proposal in the degree of Master of Early Childhood Education for working the method of historical research in the classroom

Future teachers must be competent in creating educational settings, which provide tools to their students future they can develop a conscious mind, able to interpret their experiences, to make decisions and imagine innovative solutions to help you participate autonomously and responsible in society. This requires an educational system that allows them to integrate the subjective into a broader spatial and temporal context. La patrimonializatión of “Cultural artefacts” and oral history, the basis of which, are found in the active mind and links both the personal and the group experience, don’t only serve as a catalyst to achieving this goal, but rather, they facilitate the implementation of established practice in infant education. To gain this experience we offer the opportunity for students of their degree in Infant Education in the Public University of Navarre, training within the framework of social didactics, allowing students to learn about established practice from iconic, materials and oral sources in the Archive of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Navarra. The vidences points to their effectiveness and presented in a work in progress.

A literature review to Examine the Validity and Reliability of group poster presentations as an assessment method of a module in an undergraduate nursing degree programme

The introduction of a poster presentation as a formative assessment method over a multiple choice examination after the first phase of a three phase “health and well-being” module in an undergraduate nursing degree programme was greeted with a storm of criticism from fellow lecturers stating that poster presentations are not valid or reliable and totally irrelevant to the assessment of learning in the module. This paper seeks to investigate these criticisms by investigating the literature regarding producing nurses fit for practice, nurse curriculum development and wider nurse education, the purpose of assessment, validity and reliability to critically evaluate the poster presentation as a legitimate assessment method for these aims.

A new method of current switching for linear wide-range measurement systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)