U-curve: A branch-and-bound optimization algorithm for U-shaped cost functions on Boolean lattices applied to the feature selection problem

This paper presents the formulation of a combinatorial optimization problem with the following characteristics: (i) the search space is the power set of a finite set structured as a Boolean lattice; (ii) the cost function forms a U-shaped curve when applied to any lattice chain. This formulation applies for feature selection in the context of pattern recognition. The known approaches for this problem are branch-and-bound algorithms and heuristics that explore partially the search space. Branch-and-bound algorithms are equivalent to the full search, while heuristics are not. This paper presents a branch-and-bound algorithm that differs from the others known by exploring the lattice structure and the U-shaped chain curves of the search space. The main contribution of this paper is the architecture of this algorithm that is based on the representation and exploration of the search space by new lattice properties proven here. Several experiments, with well known public data, indicate the superiority of the proposed method to the sequential floating forward selection (SFFS), which is a popular heuristic that gives good results in very short computational time. In all experiments, the proposed method got better or equal results in similar or even smaller computational time. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of education and depressive symptoms on cognitive function in the elderly

Objective: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the influence that education and depression have on the performance of elderly people in neuropsychological tests. Methods: The study was conducted at the Institute of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Hospital das Clinicas. All of the individuals evaluated were aged 60 or older. The study sample consisted of 59 outpatients with depressive disorders and 51 healthy controls. We stratified the sample by level of education: low = 1-4 years of schooling; high = 5 or more years of schooling. Evaluations consisted of psychiatric assessment, cognitive assessment, laboratory tests and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. Results: We found that level of education influenced all the measures of cognitive domains investigated (intellectual efficiency, processing speed, attention, executive function and memory) except the Digit Span Forward and Fuld Object Memory Evaluation (immediate and delayed recall), whereas depressive symptoms influenced some measures of memory, attention, executive function and processing speed. Although the combination of a low level of education and depression had a significant negative influence on Stroop Test part B, Trail Making Test part B and Logical Memory (immediate recall), we found no other significant effects of the interaction between level of education and depression. Conclusion: The results of this study underscore the importance of considering the level of education in the analysis of cognitive performance in depressed elderly patients, as well as the relevance of developing new cognitive function tests in which level of education has a reduced impact on the results.

The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

CuO and CuO-ZnO catalysts supported on CeO(2) and CeO(2)-LaO(3) for low temperature water-gas shift reaction

This paper describes an investigation on CuO and CuO-ZnO catalysts supported on CeO(2) and CeO(2)-La(2)O(3) oxides, which were designed for the low temperature water-gas shift reaction (WGSR). Bulk catalysts were prepared by co-precipitation of metal nitrates and characterized by energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), surface area (by the BET method), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and in situ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES). The catalysts` activities were tested in the forward WGSR, and the CuO/CeO(2) catalyst presented the best catalytic performance. The reasons for this are twofold: (1) the presence of Zn inhibits the interaction between Cu and Ce ions, and (2) lanthanum oxide forms a solid solution with cerium oxide, which will cause a decrease in the surface area of the catalysts. Also the CuO/CeO(2) catalyst presented the highest Cu content on the surface, which could influence its catalytic behavior. Additionally, the Cu and Cu(1+) species could influence the catalytic activity via a reduction-oxidation mechanism, corroborating to the best catalytic performance of the Cu/Ce catalyst. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brytmånens utformning vid trädfällning - Jämförande studier av böjmotstånd och gångjärnseffekt : Designing felling hinge in tree felling - Comparative studies of bending resistance and hinge effect

Vid trädfällning med motorsåg sparar man en så kallad brytmån som skall fungera som ett gång¬järn när trädet fälls. Om brytmånen går av tidigt finns en risk att trädet faller okontrolle¬rat. De rekommendationer som finns säger att brytmånens bredd skall göras proportionell mot trädets diameter. Genom att teoretiskt och praktiskt undersöka vilka krafter brytmånen utsätts för och vad den håller för har det varit möjligt att dra vissa slutsatser om hur en bra brytmån skall se ut. Ett viktigt resultat är att en bred brytmån (över 30-40 mm) är mycket trög att böja och inte fungerar i det avseendet att den går av redan vid små böjningar. Teoretiska be¬räkningar och praktiska försök visar att en relativt smal brytmån håller för belastningen vid rakt motlut även på stora träd. Som ny rekommendationen föreslås att brytmånens bredd inte bör vara mer än 30 mm. Av försöken kan man också dra slutsatsen att frusen ved är stel och brister tidigt, varför svår¬fällda träd inte bör fällas när veden är fryst.A felling hinge is used when felling trees by help of chain saw. If the hinge breaks early in the fall of the tree there is a great risk that the tree will fall without control. Present recommenda¬tions in Sweden say that the thickness of the felling hinge shall be made in proportion to the stem diameter. By use of theoretical and practical examinations of the forces stressing the felling hinge, and the strength of the wood itself, it has been possible to draw conclusions regarding the correct design of a felling hinge. One important result is that a thick felling hinge (over 30-40 mm) is very hard to bend and does not work well as it looses most of its strength already at a small forward bending angel. Theoretical calculations and practical tests show that a relatively narrow felling hinge will manage very well the forces when felling trees with lean opposite to the felling direction even for large trees. Our new recommendation is that the thickness of the felling hinge in normal Swedish conditions should not exceed 30 mm. Through the studies it can also be seen that frozen, brittle wood breaks at small bending angels. For that reason particularly difficult trees not should be felled when the wood is frozen.

Evaluating And Optimizing Sustainable Drainage Design To Maximize Multiple Benefits: Case Studies In China

In the past, the focus of drainage design was on sizing pipes and storages in order to provide sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach, together with computer software and technical guidance, had been successful for many years. However, due to rapid population growth and urbanisation, the requirements of a “good” drainage design have also changed significantly. In addition to water management, other aspects such as environmental impacts, amenity values and carbon footprint have to be considered during the design process. Going forward, we need to address the key sustainability issues carefully and practically. The key challenge of moving from simple objectives (e.g. capacity and costs) to complicated objectives (e.g. capacity, flood risk, environment, amenity etc) is the difficulty to strike a balance between various objectives and to justify potential benefits and compromises. In order to assist decision makers, we developed a new decision support system for drainage design. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. The evaluation framework is used for the quantification of performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems. The optimisation tool can search for feasible combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will discuss real-world application of the decision support system. A number of case studies have been developed based on recent drainage projects in China. We will use the case studies to illustrate how the evaluation framework highlights and compares the pros and cons of various design options. We will also discuss how the design parameters can be optimised based on the preferences of decision makers. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur

A América Latina tem uma longa história de tentativas de alcançar uma integração regional, embora seu sucesso tenha sido modesto. Este trabalho procura mostrar que isso essencialmente ocorre não tanto pelas práticas protecionistas nos vários países, mas devido à falta de uma moeda comum, ou, pelo menos, de uma taxa de câmbio rigorosamente administrada. Os autores analisaram o critério da área ótima de moeda que mostra ser prudente aumentar a integração econômica antes de tentar implementar a coordenação das taxas de câmbio. Entretanto, nós mostramos que no Mercosul já existem as condições mínimas para começar a trabalhar nessa direção. A diminuição da instabilidade cambial pode encorajar a entrada de investimentos e o comércio nas economias latino-americanas. Os autores também desenvolveram um exercício simplificado para entender como poderia ser viável alcançar estabilidade da taxa de câmbio em nos dois maiores países da região (Brasil e Argentina) e avançar na adoção de uma moeda comum.

Can a habit formation model really explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?

Verdelhan (2009) mostra que desejando-se explicar o comporta- mento do prêmio de risco nos mercados de títulos estrangeiros usando- se o modelo de formação externa de hábitos proposto por Campbell e Cochrane (1999) será necessário especi car o retorno livre de risco de equilíbrio de maneira pró-cíclica. Mostramos que esta especi cação só é possível sobre parâmetros de calibração implausíveis. Ainda no processo de calibração, para a maioria dos parâmetros razoáveis, a razão preço-consumo diverge. Entretanto, adotando a sugestão pro- posta por Verdelhan (2009) - de xar a função sensibilidade (st) no seu valor de steady-state durante a calibração e liberá-la apenas du- rante a simulação dos dados para se garantir taxas livre de risco pró- cíclicas - conseguimos encontrar um valor nito e bem comportado para a razão preço-consumo de equilíbrio e replicar o foward premium anom- aly. Desconsiderando possíveis inconsistências deste procedimento, so- bre retornos livres de risco pró-cíclicos, conforme sugerido por Wachter (2006), o modelo utilizado gera curvas de yields reais decrescentes na maturidade, independentemente do estado da economia - resultado que se opõe à literatura subjacente e aos dados reais sobre yields.

Can a habit formation model really explain the forward premium anomaly?

Verdelhan (2009) shows that if one is to explain the foreign exchange forward premium behavior using Campbell and Cochrane (1999)’s habit formation model one must specify it in such a way to generate pro-cyclical short term risk free rates. At the calibration procedure, we show that this is only possible in Campbell and Cochrane’s framework under implausible parameters specifications given that the price-consumption ratio diverges in almost all parameters sets. We, then, adopt Verdelhan’s shortcut of fixing the sensivity function λ(st) at its steady state level to attain a finite value for the price-consumption ratio and release it in the simulation stage to ensure pro-cyclical risk free rates. Beyond the potential inconsistencies that such procedure may generate, as suggested by Wachter (2006), with procyclical risk free rates the model generates a downward sloped real yield curve, which is at odds with the data.

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Do equity and foreign currency risk premiums display common patterns?

In da Costa et al. (2006) we have shown how a same pricing kernel can account for the excess returns of the S&:P500 over the US short term bond and of the uncovered over the covered trading of foreign government bonds. In this paper we estimate and test the overidentifying restrictiom; of Euler equations associated with "ix different versions of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing I\Iodel. Our main finding is that the same (however often unreasonable) values for the parameters are estimated for ali models in both nmrkets. In most cases, the rejections or otherwise of overidentifying restrictions occurs for the two markets, suggesting that success and failure stories for the equity premium repeat themselves in foreign exchange markets. Our results corroborate the findings in da Costa et al. (2006) that indicate a strong similarity between the behavior of excess returns in the two markets when modeled as risk premiums, providing empirical grounds to believe that the proposed preference-based solutions to puzzles in domestic financiaI markets can certainly shed light on the Forward Premium Puzzle.

Information asymmetry and transaction costs in a cross-cultural business transaction

The intent of this paper is to provide a practitioners insight into the present and foreseeable future of problem of transaction cost economics related to culture and business etiquette that may increase the of complexity of business communication. We will also explore whether it impacts participant's mindsets regarding opportunistic or passive aggressive behavior. We will study the role of culture, ethics, information asymmetry, and legal systems regarding their importance towards the business contracts and lack of knowledge in local environments. We will make connections to contract theory strategies and objectives and recommend business practices. Furthermore, economic theory explores the role of the impossibility of the perfect contract. Historical and present day operational factors are examined for the determination of forward-looking contract law indications worldwide. This paper is intended provide a practitioners view with a global perspective of a multinational, mid-sized and small corporations giving consideration in a non-partisan and non-nationalistic view, yet examines the individual characteristics of the operational necessities and obligations of any corporation. The study will be general, yet cite specific articles to each argument and give adequate consideration to the intricacies of the global asymmetry of information. This paper defends that corporations of any kind and size should be aware of the risk of international business etiquette and cultural barriers that might jeopardize the savings you could obtain from engaging international suppliers.