Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Um modelo de otimização inteira mista e heurísticas relax and fix para a programação da produção de fábricas de refrigerantes de pequeno porte

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Limit between stages I and II of a seed imbibition curve

O conhecimento das fases de absorção de água das diferentes espécies é importante em pesquisas objetivando melhorar a qualidade das sementes, utilizando tratamentos como condicionamento osmótico, pré-hidratação e uso de bioreguladores. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estabelecer uma metodologia para determinar o limite entre a primeira e a segunda fase do processo, considerando o modelo W = f(t) - (a - w0)exp(-kt), utilizando testes estatísticos. O limite entre as duas primeiras fases do processo de absorção de água pelas sementes, foi determinado utilizando-se a distribuição assintótica de uma função de estimadores. O ponto a partir do qual esta diferença (W*) deixa de ser significativa foi determinado utilizando-se o teste estatístico T de Student. Para os dados utilizados como exemplo, tem-se o modelo ou =(0,434 + 0,00162 t) - (0,434 - w o)exp(-0,121 t), com r² = 0,98 e W* = (0,434 - w o) exp(-0,121 t). O valor de t encontrado (27,2 horas) é menor do que o valor determinado, considerando-se como critério para mudança de fase a diferença de 1% entre a assíntota e o valor estimado pelo modelo ajustado. Essa diferença de duas horas corresponde a 0,28% de água absorvida.

Economic design of (X)over-bar and R charts under Weibull shock models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Small-angle X-ray scattering and nitrogen adsorption study of the nanoporosity elimination in TEOS sonohydrolysis-derived xerogels

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and nitrogen adsorption techniques were used to study the temperature and time structural evolution of the nanoporosity in silica xerogels prepared from acid- and ultrasound-catalyzed hydrolysis of tetraetboxysilane (TEOS). Silica xerogels present a structure of nanopores of fully random shape, size, and distribution, which can be described by an exponential correlation function gamma(r) = exp (-r/a), where a is the correlation distance, as predicted by the Debye, Anderson, and Brumberger (DAB) model. The mean pore size was evaluated as about 1.25 nm from SAXS and about 1.9 nm from nitrogen adsorption. The nanopore elimination in TEOS sonohydrolysis-derived silica xerogels is readily accelerated at temperatures around 900 degrees C probably by the action of a viscous flow mechanism. The nanopore elimination process takes place in such a way that the pore volume fraction and the specific surface are reduced while the mean pore size remains constant. (c) 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH S Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Genetic parameters for milk yield, age at first calving and interval between first and second calving in milk buffaloes

Genetic parameters for the relation between the traits of milk yield (MY), age at first calving (AFC) and interval between first and second calving (IBFSC) were estimated in milk buffaloes of the Murrah breed. In the study, data of 1578 buffaloes at first lactation, with calvings from 1974 to 2006 were analyzed. The MTDFREML system was used in the analyses with models for the MY, IBFSC traits which included the fixed effects of herd-year-season of calving, linear and quadratic terms of calving age as covariate and the random animal effects and error. The model for AFC consisted of the herd-year-season fixed effects of calving and the random effects of animal and error. Heritability estimates MY, AFC and IBFSC traits were 0.20, 0.07 and 0.14, respectively. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between the traits were: MY and AFC = -0.12 and -0.15, MY and IBFSC = 0.07 and 0.30, AFC and IBFSC = 0.35 and 0.37, respectively. Genetic correlation between MY and AFC traits showed desirable negative association, suggesting that the daughters of the bulls with high breeding value for MY could be physiological maturity to a precocious age. Genetic correlation between MY and IBFSC showed that the selection of the animals that increased milk yield is also those that tend to intervals of bigger calving.

Genetic and phenotypic trends for growth traits of buffaloes in Brazil

The objectives this paper were to estimate genetic parameters and genetic and phenotypic trends of birth weight (BWT) and weights adjusted to 205 (WT205), 365 (WT365) and 550 (P550) days of age of beef buffaloes born from 1985 to 2003 in Brazil. For BWT and WT205 the model included direct and maternal genetic and maternal environment as random effects and contemporary and genetic groups as fixed effects. For WT365 and WT550 the same model was used except without direct maternal and maternal environmental effects. The genetic and phenotypic trends were estimated by regression of means of dependent variables on birth year of animals Regressions were obtained by using two methodologies: 1) linear regression; and 2) non-parametric splined regression. The direct heritability estimates were 0.09, 0.45, 0.46 and 0.58 for BWT, WT205, WT365 and WT550, respectively. The direct genetic trends from linear regression were 0.01, 0.23, 0.58 and 1.40 kg per year for PN, WT205, VVT365 and WT550, respectively (P<0.001 for all). Phenotypic trends were strongly positive while genetic trends were consistently positive but small. Genetic parameters indicate potential for increased rate of genetic change with full implementation of genetic improvement programs.

Modeling and simulation of cephalosporin C production in a fed-batch tower-type bioreactor

Immobilized cell utilization in tower-type bioreactor is one of the main alternatives being studied to improve the industrial bioprocess. Other alternatives for the production of beta -lactam antibiotics, such as a cephalosporin C fed-batch p recess in an aerated stirred-tank bioreactor with free cells of Cepha-losporium acremonium or a tower-type bioreactor with immobilized cells of this fungus, have proven to be more efficient than the batch profess. In the fed-batch process, it is possible to minimize the catabolite repression exerted by the rapidly utilization of carbon sources (such as glucose) in the synthesis of antibiotics by utilizing a suitable flow rate of supplementary medium. In this study, several runs for cephalosporin C production, each lasting 200 h, were conducted in a fed-batch tower-type bioreactor using different hydrolyzed sucrose concentrations, For this study's model, modifications were introduced to take into account the influence of supplementary medium flow rate. The balance equations considered the effect of oxygen limitation inside the bioparticles. In the Monod-type rate equations, eel concentrations, substrate concentrations, and dissolved oxygen were included as reactants affecting the bioreaction rate. The set of differential equations was solved by the numerical method, and the values of the parameters were estimated by the classic nonlinear regression method following Marquardt's procedure with a 95% confidence interval. The simulation results showed that the proposed model fit well with the experimental data,and based on the experimental data and the mathematical model an optimal mass flow rate to maximize the bioprocess productivity could be proposed.

Energy localization in the Peyrard-Bishop DNA model

We study energy localization on the oscillator chain proposed by Peyrard and Bishop to model DNA. We search numerically for conditions with initial energy in a small subgroup of consecutive oscillators of a finite chain and such that the oscillation amplitude is small outside this subgroup on a long time scale. We use a localization criterion based on the information entropy and verify numerically that such localized excitations exist when the nonlinear dynamics of the subgroup oscillates with a frequency inside the reactive band of the linear chain. We predict a mimium value for the Morse parameter (mu>2.25) (the only parameter of our normalized model), in agreement with the numerical calculations (an estimate for the biological value is mu=6.3). For supercritical masses, we use canonical perturbation theory to expand the frequencies of the subgroup and we calculate an energy threshold in agreement with the numerical calculations.

Friction losses in valves and fittings for viscoplastic fluids

Data on pressure drop were obtained in stainless steel, sanitary fittings and valves during laminar and turbulent flow of aqueous suspensions of sucrose and bentonite. The rheological properties of these suspensions were determined and the Bingham model provided the best fitting with the experimental data. Friction losses were measured in fully- and partially-open butterfly and plug valves, bends and union. Values of loss coefficients (k(f)) were calculated and correlated as functions of the classical Reynolds number and the Reynolds number proposed by Govier and Aziz (1972) for viscoplastic fluids. The two-k method and a new proposed model presented the best adjustments for the Govier and Aziz Reynolds number, and Hedstrom and classical Reynolds numbers, respectively.

Solution approaches for the soft drink integrated production lot sizing and scheduling problem

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determination of labile inorganic and organic species of Al and Cu in river waters using the diffusive gradients in thin films technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Scaling investigation of Fermi acceleration on a dissipative bouncer model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete plates by the boundary element method and continuum damage mechanics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Model for zinc oxide varistor

Zinc oxide varistors are very complex systems, and the dominant mechanism of voltage barrier formation in these systems has not been well established. Yet the MNDO quantum mechanical theoretical calculation was used in this work to determine the most probable defect type at the surface of a ZnO cluster. The proposed model represents well the semiconducting nature as well as the defects at the ZnO bulk and surface. The model also shows that the main adsorption species that provide stability at the ZnO surface are O-, O2 -, and O2.