990 resultados para climate reconstruction
Resumo:
Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.
Resumo:
Modern dairy farming in Australia relies on substantial inputs of fertiliser nitrogen (N) to underpin economic production. However, N lost from dairy systems represents an opportunity cost and can pose a number of environmental risks. Nitrogen cycle inhibitors can be co-applied with N fertilisers to slow the conversion of urea to NH4+ to reduce losses via volatilisation, and slow the conversion of NH4+ to NO3- to minimize leaching of NO3- and gaseous losses via nitrification and denitrification. In a field campaign in a high input ryegrass-kikuyu pasture system we compared the soil N pools, losses and pasture production between a) urea coated with the nitrification inhibitor (3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate - DMPP) b) urea coated with the urease inhibitor (N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide - NBPT) and c) standard urea. There was no treatment effect (P>0.05) on soil mineral N, pasture yield, N2O flux nor leaching of NO3- cf. standard urea. We hypothesise that at our site, because gaseous losses were highly episodic (rainfall was erratic and displayed no seasonal rainfall nor soil wetting pattern) that there was a lack of coincidence of N application and conditions conducive to gaseous losses, thus the effectiveness of the inhibitor products was minimal and did not result in an increase in pasture yield. There remains a paucity of knowledge on N cycle inhibitors in relation to their effective use in field system to increase N use efficiency. Further research is required to define under what field conditions inhibitor products are effective in order to be able to provide accurate advice to managers of nitrogen in production systems.
Resumo:
This thesis is an examination of how organisational context variables affect the performance of new product development (NPD) teams. Specifically, the extent to how team empowerment climate and supervisory support for creativity impact NPD team performance. Moreover, this thesis is a step forward in the ongoing development of work role performance theory by examining Griffin et al.'s (2007) work role performance model in the context of NPD teams. This thesis addresses the lack of research exploring work role performance dimensions in NPD teams and the extent to which a team empowerment climate and supervisory support for creativity impact NPDs performance.
Resumo:
This book investigates the ethical values that inform the global carbon integrity system, and reflects on alternative norms that could or should do so. The global carbon integrity system comprises the emerging international architecture being built to respond to the climate change. This architecture can be understood as an 'integrity system'- an inter-related set of institutions, governance arrangements, regulations and practices that work to ensure the system performs its role faithfully and effectively. This volume investigates the ways ethical values impact on where and how the integrity system works, where it fails, and how it can be improved. With a wide array of perspectives across many disciplines, including ethicists, philosophers, lawyers, governance experts and political theorists, the chapters seek to explore the positive values driving the global climate change processes, to offer an understanding of the motivations justifying the creation of the regime and the way that social norms impact upon the operation of the integrity system. The collection focuses on the nexus between ideal ethics and real-world implementation through institutions and laws. The book will be of interest to policy makers, climate change experts, carbon taxation regulators, academics, legal practitioners and researchers.
Resumo:
This thesis details a Miocene aged sedimentary rock formation located in north island New Zealand. Mapping, stratigraphic logging and petrographic analysis of the rock formation ascertained that it was deposited in a deep-marine, tectonically active region. The work details the make-up of the sedimentary rocks using geochemistry and microscopy to define their origin. This definition was used to interpret the depositional model of the sediments detailing how they were transported and how they were emplaced.
Resumo:
In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.
Resumo:
The terrestrial export of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is associated with climate, vegetation and land use, and thus is under the influence of climatic variability and human interference with terrestrial ecosystems, their soils and hydrological cycles. The present study provides an assessment of spatial variation of DOM concentrations and export, and interactions between DOM, catchment characteristics, land use and climatic factors in boreal catchments. The influence of catchment characteristics, land use and climatic drivers on the concentrations and export of total organic carbon (TOC), total organic nitrogen (TON) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) was estimated using stream water quality, forest inventory and climatic data from 42 Finnish pristine forested headwater catchments, and water quality monitoring, GIS land use, forest inventory and climatic data from the 36 main Finnish rivers (and their sub-catchments) flowing to the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the export of DOM in relation to land use along a European climatic gradient was studied using river water quality and land use data from four European areas. Additionally, the role of organic and minerogenic acidity in controlling pH levels in Finnish rivers and pristine streams was studied by measuring organic anion, sulphate (SO4) and base cation (Ca, Mg, K and Na) concentrations. In all study catchments, TOC was a major fraction of DOM, with much lower proportions of TON and DOP. Moreover, most of TOC and TON was in a dissolved form. The correlation between TOC and TON concentrations was strong and TOC concentrations explained 78% of the variation in TON concentrations in pristine headwater streams. In a subgroup of 20 headwater catchments with similar climatic conditions and low N deposition in eastern Finland, the proportion of peatlands in the catchment and the proportion of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karsten) of the tree stand had the strongest correlation with the TOC and TON concentrations and export. In Finnish river basins, TOC export increased with the increasing proportion of peatland in the catchment, whereas TON export increased with increasing extent of agricultural land. The highest DOP concentrations and export were recorded in river basins with a high extent of agricultural land and urban areas, reflecting the influence of human impact on DOP loads. However, the most important predictor for TOC, TON and DOP export in Finnish rivers was the proportion of upstream lakes in the catchment. The higher the upstream lake percentage, the lower the export indicating organic matter retention in lakes. Molar TOC:TON ratio decreased from headwater catchments covered by forests and peatlands to the large river basins with mixed land use, emphasising the effect of the land use gradient on the stoichiometry of rivers. This study also demonstrated that the land use of the catchments is related to both organic and minerogenic acidity in rivers and pristine headwater streams. Organic anion dominated in rivers and streams situated in northern Finland, reflecting the higher extent of peatlands in these areas, whereas SO4 dominated in southern Finland and on western coastal areas, where the extent of fertile areas, agricultural land, urban areas, acid sulphate soils, and sulphate deposition is highest. High TOC concentrations decreased pH values in the stream and river water, whereas no correlation between SO4 concentrations and pH was observed. This underlines the importance of organic acids in controlling pH levels in Finnish pristine headwater streams and main rivers. High SO4 concentrations were associated with high base cation concentrations and fertile areas, which buffered the effects of SO4 on pH.
Resumo:
The risk is obvious for soft tissue complications after operative treatment of the Achilles tendon, calcaneal bone or after ankle arthroplasty. Such complications after malleolar fractures are, however, seldom seen. The reason behind these complications is that the soft tissue in this region is tight and does not allow much tension to the wound area after surgery. Furthermore the area of operation may be damaged by swelling after the injury, or can be affected by peripheral vascular disease. While complications in this area are unavoidable, they can be diminished. This study attempts to highlight the possible predisposing factors leading to complications in these operations and on the other hand, to determine the solutions to solve soft tissue problems in this region. The study consists of five papers. The first article is a reprint on the soft tissue reconstruction of 25 patients after their complicated Achilles tendon surgeries were analysed. The second study reviews a series of 126 patients after having undergone an operative treatment of calcaneal bone fractures and analyses the complications and possible reasons behind them. The third part analyses a series of corrections of 35 soft tissue complications after calcaneal fracture operations. The fourth part reviews a series of 7 patients who had undergone complicated ankle arthroplasties. The last article presents a series of post operative lateral defects of the ankle treated with a less frequently used distally based peroneus brevis muscle flap and analyses the results. What can be conducted from these studies is that in general, the results after the correction of even severe soft tissue complications in the ankle region are good. For the small defects around the Achilles tendon, the local flaps are useful, but the larger defects are best treated with a free flap. We found that a long delay from trauma to surgery and a long operating time were predisposing factors that lead to soft tissue complications after operatively treated calcaneal bone fractures. The more severe the injury, the greater the risk for wound complication. Surprisingly, the long-term results after infected calcaneal osteosyntheses were acceptable and the calcaneal bone seems to tolerate chronic infections very well if the soft tissue is reconstructed successfully. Behind the complicated ankle arthroplasties, unexpectedly high number of cases experiencing arteriosclerosis of the lower extremity was found. These complications lead to ankle fusion but can be solved with a free flap if the vascularity is intact or can be reconstructed. For this reason a vascular examination of the lower extremity arteries of the patients going to ankle arthroplasty is strongly recommended. Moreover postoperative lateral malleolar wound infections which typically create lateral ankle defects can successfully be treated with a peroneus brevis muscle flap covered with a free skin graft.
Resumo:
Breast reconstruction is performed for 10-15 % of women operated on for breast cancer. A popular method is the TRAM (transverse rectus abdominis musculocutaneous) flap formed of the patient’s own abdominal tissue, a part of one of the rectus abdominis muscles and a transverse skin-subcutis area over it. The flap can be raised as a pedicled or a free flap. The pedicled TRAM flap, based on its nondominant pedicle superior epigastric artery (SEA), is rotated to the chest so that blood flow through SEA continues. The free TRAM flap, based on its dominant pedicle deep inferior epigastric artery (DIEA), is detached from the abdomen, transferred to the chest, and DIEA and vein are anastomosed to vessels on the chest. Cutaneous necrosis is seen in 5–60 % of pedicled TRAM flaps and in 0–15 % of free TRAM flaps. This study was the first one to show with blood flow measurements that the cutaneous blood flow is more generous in free than in pedicled TRAM flaps. After this study the free TRAM flap has exceeded the pedicled flap in popularity as a breast reconstruction method, although the free flap it is technically a more demanding procedure than the pedicled TRAM flap. In pedicled flaps, a decrease in cutaneous blood flow was observed when DIEA was ligated. It seems that SEA cannot provide sufficient blood flow on the first postoperative days. The postoperative cutaneous blood flow in free TRAM flaps was more stable than in pedicled flaps. Development of cutaneous necrosis of pedicled TRAM flaps could be predicted based on intraoperative laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) measurements. The LDF value on the contralateral skin of the flap decreased to 43 ± 7 % of the initial value after ligation of the DIEA in flaps developing cutaneous necrosis during the next week. Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a powerful vasoconstrictory peptide secreted by vascular endothelial cells. A correlation was found between plasma ET-1 concentrations and peripheral vasoconstriction developing during and after breast reconstructions with a pedicled TRAM flap. ET-1 was not associated with the development of cutaneous necrosis. Felodipine, a vasodilating calcium channel antagonist, had no effect on plasma ET-1 concentrations, peripheral vasoconstriction or development of cutaneous necrosis in free TRAM flaps. Body mass index and thickness of abdominal were not associated with cutaneous necrosis in pedicled TRAM flaps.
Resumo:
This chapter discusses the effect on vision of a large group of pathological conditions, known as ocular surface disorders (OSDs), and presents the therapeutic strategies to reconstruct the abnormal ocular surface. If left untreated, most of the OSDs will lead to partial or total loss of eyesight, especially when limbal stem cell deficiency is involved. An overview of various treatment strategies is presented, with the emphasis on the development of the ex vivo expansion of corneal limbal epithelial cells (presumed to be progenitor or stem cells) and the creation of transplantable epithelial constructs. The use of naturally derived biomaterials (collagen, fibrin, amnion, etc.) or synthetic polymers (polylactides, thermoresponsive polymers, etc.) as substrata in these constructs is critically analyzed. Emphasis is placed on the templates from silk proteins, which are being developed by the authors.
Resumo:
We address the issue of noise robustness of reconstruction techniques for frequency-domain optical-coherence tomography (FDOCT). We consider three reconstruction techniques: Fourier, iterative phase recovery, and cepstral techniques. We characterize the reconstructions in terms of their statistical bias and variance and obtain approximate analytical expressions under the assumption of small noise. We also perform Monte Carlo analyses and show that the experimental results are in agreement with the theoretical predictions. It turns out that the iterative and cepstral techniques yield reconstructions with a smaller bias than the Fourier method. The three techniques, however, have identical variance profiles, and their consistency increases linearly as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio.