Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Becoming professionals : partnerships reshaping preservice teachers’ transition to full-time teaching

While strengthened partnerships between University and Schools have been proposed in recent reviews of teacher education (House of Representative Standing Committee on Education and Vocational Training, 2007; Caldwell & Sutton, 2010; Donaldson, 2010), there is a need to understand the benefits and challenges for participants of these partnerships. The Teacher Education Centre of Excellence (TECE) in this study is a preservice teacher preparation partnership between a Queensland University, Queensland Department of Education, Training and Employment (DETE) and an Education Queensland school. It was established in response to a mandated reform within the Improving Teacher Quality National Partnership Agreement (Department of Education Employment and Workplace Relations, 2011). High-achieving Bachelor of Education preservice teachers apply to be part of the 18-month program in the third year of their four-year Education degree. These preservice teachers experience mentoring in partner schools in addition to course work designed and delivered by a DETE appointed Head of Mentoring and a university academic. On completion of the program, graduates will be appointed to South West Queensland rural and remote Education Queensland schools. This paper analyses participant perspectives from the first phase of this partnership in particular identifying the benefits and challenges experienced by the preservice teachers and the leaders of the program from the participating institutions. A sociocultural theoretical perspective (Wenger, 1998) informed the analysis examining how preservice teachers experience a sense of becoming a professional teacher within a specific employment context. Data from interviews with 6 pre-service teachers and 8 program leaders were analysed inductively through coding of interview records. Findings indicate the importance of strong relationships and opportunity for reciprocal learning through ongoing professional conversations as contexts for preservice teachers to develop an identity as an emerging professional. This research has significance for the ongoing development of this partnership as well as informing the principles for the design of future similar partnerships.

Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Practical stability is established in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Real-time power line extraction from unmanned aerial system video images

In this paper a real-time vision based power line extraction solution is investigated for active UAV guidance. The line extraction algorithm starts from ridge points detected by steerable filters. A collinear line segments fitting algorithm is followed up by considering global and local information together with multiple collinear measurements. GPU boosted algorithm implementation is also investigated in the experiment. The experimental result shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two baseline line detection algorithms and is able to fitting long collinear line segments. The low computational cost of the algorithm make suitable for real-time applications.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Determining the detection capabilities of existing real time measurement techniques for different engineered nanoparticles

The application of nanotechnology products has increased significantly in recent years. With their broad range of applications, including electronics, food and agriculture, power and energy, scientific instruments, clothing, cosmetics, buildings, biomedical and health, etc (Catanzariti, 2008), nanomaterials are an indispensible part of human life.

Real-time measurement of F-Actin remodelling during exocytosis using lifeact-EGFP transgenic animals

F-actin remodelling is essential for a wide variety of cell processes. It is important in exocytosis, where F-actin coats fusing exocytic granules. The purpose of these F-actin coats is unknown. They may be important in stabilizing the fused granules, they may play a contractile role and promote expulsion of granule content and finally may be important in endocytosis. To elucidate these functions of F-actin remodelling requires a reliable method to visualize F-actin dynamics in living cells. The recent development of Lifeact-EGFP transgenic animals offers such an opportunity. Here, we studied the characteristics of exocytosis in pancreatic acinar cells obtained from the Lifeact-EGFP transgenic mice. We show that the time-course of agonist-evoked exocytic events and the kinetics of each single exocytic event are the same for wild type and Lifeact-EGFP transgenic animals. We conclude that Lifeact-EGFP animals are a good model to study of exocytosis and reveal that F-actin coating is dependent on the de novo synthesis of F-actin and that development of actin polymerization occurs simultaneously in all regions of the granule. Our insights using the Lifeact-EGFP mice demonstrate that F-actin coating occurs after granule fusion and is a granule-wide event.

Mapping the dynamics of the project management field : project management in action (part 6)

This is the sixth part of a Letter from the Editor series where the results are presented of an ongoing research undertaken in order to investigate the dynamic of the evolution of the field of project management and the key trends. Dynamics of networks is a key feature in strategic diagrams analysis. The radical change in the configuration of a network between two periods, or the change at subnetwork level reflects the dynamic of science. I present here an example of subnetwork comparison over the four periods of time considered in this study. I will develop and discuss an example of subnetwork transformation in future Letter from the Editor article..

Mapping the dynamics of the project management field : project management in action (part 5)

This is the fifth part of a Letter From the Editor series where the results are presented of an ongoing research undertaken in order to investigate the dynamic of the evolution of the field of project management and the key trends. I present some general findings and the strategic diagrams generated for each of the time periods introduced herein and discuss what we can learn from them on a general standpoint. I will develop and discuss some detailed findings in future Letter From the Editor articles...

Prevalence and trends of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. South Asians are known to have an increased predisposition for diabetes which has become an important health concern in the region. We discuss the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in South Asia and explore the differential risk factors reported. Methods Prevalence data were obtained by searching the Medline® database with; ‘prediabetes’ and ‘diabetes mellitus’ (MeSH major topic) and ‘Epidemology/EP’ (MeSH subheading). Search limits were articles in English, between 01/01/1980–31/12/2011, on human adults (≥19 years). The conjunction of the above results was narrowed down with country names. Results The most recent reported prevalence of pre-diabetes:diabetes in regional countries were; Bangladesh–4.7%:8.5% (2004–2005;Rural), India–4.6%:12.5% (2007;Rural); Maldives–3.0%:3.7% (2004;National), Nepal–19.5%:9.5% (2007;Urban), Pakistan–3.0%:7.2% (2002;Rural), Sri Lanka–11.5%:10.3% (2005–2006;National). Urban populations demonstrated a higher prevalence of diabetes. An increasing trend in prevalence of diabetes was observed in urban/rural India and rural Sri Lanka. The diabetes epidemicity index decreased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes in respective countries. A high epidemicity index was seen in Sri Lanka (2005/2006–52.8%), while for other countries, the epidemicity index was comparatively low (rural India 2007–26.9%; urban India 2002/2005–31.3%, and urban Bangladesh–33.1%). Family history, urban residency, age, higher BMI, sedentary lifestyle, hypertension and waist-hip ratio were associated with an increased risks of diabetes. Conclusion A significant epidemic of diabetes is present in the South Asian region with a rapid increase in prevalence over the last two decades. Hence there is a need for urgent preventive and curative strategies .

Exercise for health : a randomized, controlled trial evaluating impact of a pragmatic, translational exercise intervention on quality of life, function and treatment-related side effects following breast cancer

Purpose Exercise for Health was a randomized, controlled trial designed to evaluate two modes of delivering (face-to-face [FtF] and over-the-telephone [Tel]) an 8-month translational exercise intervention, commencing 6-weeks post-breast cancer surgery (PS). Methods Outcomes included quality of life (QoL), function (fitness and upper-body) and treatment-related side effects (fatigue, lymphoedema, body mass index, menopausal symptoms, anxiety, depression and pain). Generalised estimating equation modelling determined time (baseline [5-weeks PS], mid-intervention [6-months PS], post-intervention [12-months PS]), group (FtF, Tel, Usual Care [UC]) and time-by-group effects. 194 women representative of the breast cancer population were randomised to the FtF (n=67), Tel (n=67) and UC (n=60) groups. Results: There were significant (p<0.05) interaction effects on QoL, fitness and fatigue, with differences being observed between the treatment groups and the UC group. Trends observed for the treatment groups were similar. The treatment groups reported improved QoL, fitness and fatigue over time and changes observed between baseline and post-intervention were clinically relevant. In contrast, the UC group experienced no change, or worsening QoL, fitness and fatigue, mid-intervention. Although improvements in the UC group occurred by 12-months post-surgery, the change did not meet the clinically relevant threshold. There were no differences in other treatment-related side-effects between groups. Conclusion This translational intervention trial, delivered either face-to-face or over-the-telephone, supports exercise as a form of adjuvant breast cancer therapy that can prevent declines in fitness and function during treatment and optimise recovery post-treatment.

Health complaint commissions in Australia : time for a national approach to data collection

Health complaint statistics are important for identifying problems and bringing about improvements to health care provided by health service providers and to the wider health care system. This paper overviews complaints handling by the eight Australian state and territory health complaint entities, based on an analysis of data from their annual reports. The analysis shows considerable variation between jurisdictions in the ways complaint data are defined, collected and recorded. Complaints from the public are an important accountability mechanism and open a window on service quality. The lack of a national approach leads to fragmentation of complaint data and a lost opportunity to use national data to assist policy development and identify the main areas causing consumers to complain. We need a national approach to complaints data collection in order to better respond to patients’ concerns.