Rate and processes of river network rearrangement during incipient faulting: The case of the Cahabon river, Guatemala

Deeply incised river networks are generally regarded as robust features that are not easily modified by erosion or tectonics. Although the reorganization of deeply incised drainage systems has been documented, the corresponding importance with regard to the overall landscape evolution of mountain ranges and the factors that permit such reorganizations are poorly understood. To address this problem, we have explored the rapid drainage reorganization that affected the Cahabon River in Guatemala during the Quaternary. Sediment-provenance analysis, field mapping, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) imaging are used to reconstruct the geometry of the valley before the river was captured. Dating of the abandoned valley sediments by the Be-10-Al-26 burial method and geomagnetic polarity analysis allow us to determine the age of the capture events and then to quantify several processes, such as the rate of tectonic deformation of the paleovalley, the rate of propagation of post-capture drainage reversal, and the rate at which canyons that formed at the capture sites have propagated along the paleovalley. Transtensional faulting started 1 to 3 million years ago, produced ground tilting and ground faulting along the Cahabon River, and thus generated differential uplift rate of 0.3 +/- 0.1 up to 0.7 +/- 0.4 mm . y(-1) along the river's course. The river responded to faulting by incising the areas of relative uplift and depositing a few tens of meters of sediment above the areas of relative subsidence. Then, the river experienced two captures and one avulsion between 700 ky and 100 ky. The captures breached high-standing ridges that separate the Cahabon River from its captors. Captures occurred at specific points where ridges are made permeable by fault damage zones and/or soluble rocks. Groundwater flow from the Cahabon River down to its captors likely increased the erosive power of the captors thus promoting focused erosion of the ridges. Valley-fill formation and capture occurred in close temporal succession, suggesting a genetic link between the two. We suggest that the aquifers accumulated within the valley-fills, increased the head along the subterraneous system connecting the Cahabon River to its captors, and promoted their development. Upon capture, the breached valley experienced widespread drainage reversal toward the capture sites. We attribute the generalized reversal to combined effects of groundwater sapping in the valley-fill, axial drainage obstruction by lateral fans, and tectonic tilting. Drainage reversal increased the size of the captured areas by a factor of 4 to 6. At the capture sites, 500 m deep canyons have been incised into the bedrock and are propagating upstream at a rate of 3 to 11 mm . y(-1) deepening at a rate of 0.7 to 1 5 mm . y(-1). At this rate, 1 to 2 million years will be necessary for headward erosion to completely erase the topographic expression of the paleovalley. It is concluded that the rapid reorganization of this drainage system was made possible by the way the river adjusted to the new tectonic strain field, which involved transient sedimentation along the river's course. If the river had escaped its early reorganization and had been given the time necessary to reach a new dynamic equilibrium, then the transient conditions that promoted capture would have vanished and its vulnerability to capture would have been strongly reduced.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Microsatellite markers reveal shallow genetic differentiation between cohorts of the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck) in northwest Mediterranean

Temporal variability was studied in the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus through the analysis of the genetic composition of three yearly cohorts sampled over two consecutive springs in a locality in northwestern Mediterranean. Individuals were aged using growth ring patterns observed in tests and samples were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. No reduction of genetic diversity was observed relative to a sample of the adult population from the same location or within cohorts across years. FST and amova results indicated that the differentiation between cohorts is rather shallow and not significant, as most variability is found within cohorts and within individuals. This mild differentiation translated into estimates of effective population size of 90100 individuals. When the observed excess of homozygotes was taken into account, the estimate of the average number of breeders increased to c. 300 individuals. Given our restricted sampling area and the known small-scale heterogeneity in recruitment in this species, our results suggest that at stretches of a few kilometres of shoreline, large numbers of progenitors are likely to contribute to the larval pool at each reproduction event. Intercohort variation in our samples is six times smaller than spatial variation between adults of four localities in the western Mediterranean. Our results indicate that, notwithstanding the stochastic events that take place during the long planktonic phase and during the settlement and recruitment processes, reproductive success in this species is high enough to produce cohorts genetically diverse and with little differentiation between them. Further research is needed before the link between genetic structure and underlying physical and biological processes can be well established.

Organometallic anticancer agents that interfere with cellular energy processes: a subtle approach to inducing cancer cell death.

Two hybrid compounds comprising an antimetastatic ruthenium-arene fragment tethered to an indazole-3-carboxylic acid derivative that inhibits aerobic glycolysis in cancer cells have been prepared and evaluated in a variety of cancer cell lines, including highly relevant human glioblastoma cells, with an apparent synergistic action between the two components observed.

Stochastic resonance in noisy nondynamical systems

We have analyzed the effects of the addition of external noise to nondynamical systems displaying intrinsic noise, and established general conditions under which stochastic resonance appears. The criterion we have found may be applied to a wide class of nondynamical systems, covering situations of different nature. Some particular examples are discussed in detail.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

A comparison of the processes of institutionalisation of political economy in Spain and Italy (1860-1900)

[spa] El estudio de los procesos a través de los cuales la economía política se ha transformado en una disciplina académica es un área de creciente interés en la historia del pensamiento económico. Dicho estudio se ha abordado a través del análisis de la importancia de la economía política en un conjunto de instituciones, consideradas clave en la expansión de la economía en las sociedades occidentales en la segunda mitad del siglo XIX y primeras décadas del XX: universidades, sociedades económicas, publicaciones periódicas de contenido económico y los parlamentos nacionales. Este papel presenta una comparación entre los desarrollos del proceso de institutionalización de la economía política en España e Italia, a través del estudio de la presencia de esta disciplina en las instituciones mencionadas para el periodo 1860-1900. El objetivo es medir la posible existencia de una vía común en la institucionalización de la economía política en ambos países, como un primer paso hacia la elaboración de un modelo supranacional de institucionalización de la economía en este periodo.