On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Evaluating leaf litter beetle data sampled by Winkler extraction from Atlantic forest sites in southern Brazil

Evaluating leaf litter beetle data sampled by Winkler extraction from Atlantic forest sites in southern Brazil. To evaluate the reliability of data obtained by Winkler extraction in Atlantic forest sites in southern Brazil, we studied litter beetle assemblages in secondary forests (5 to 55 years after abandonment) and old-growth forests at two seasonally different points in time. For all regeneration stages, species density and abundance were lower in April compared to August; but, assemblage composition of the corresponding forest stages was similar in both months. We suggest that sampling of small litter inhabiting beetles at different points in time using the Winkler technique reveals identical ecological patterns, which are more likely to be influenced by sample incompleteness than by differences in their assemblage composition. A strong relationship between litter quantity and beetle occurrences indicates the importance of this variable for the temporal species density pattern. Additionally, the sampled beetle material was compared with beetle data obtained with pitfall traps in one old-growth forest. Over 60% of the focal species captured with pitfall traps were also sampled by Winkler extraction in different forest stages. Few beetles with a body size too large to be sampled by Winkler extraction were only sampled with pitfall traps. This indicates that the local litter beetle fauna is dominated by small species. Hence, being aware of the exclusion of large beetles and beetle species occurring during the wet season, the Winkler method reveals a reliable picture of the local leaf litter beetle community.

Automated quantitative pupillometry for the prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Sedation and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) delay neurological responses and might reduce the accuracy of clinical examination to predict outcome after cardiac arrest (CA). We examined the accuracy of quantitative pupillary light reactivity (PLR), using an automated infrared pupillometry, to predict outcome of post-CA coma in comparison to standard PLR, EEG, and somato-sensory evoked potentials (SSEP). METHODS: We prospectively studied over a 1-year period (June 2012-June 2013) 50 consecutive comatose CA patients treated with TH (33 °C, 24 h). Quantitative PLR (expressed as the % of pupillary response to a calibrated light stimulus) and standard PLR were measured at day 1 (TH and sedation; on average 16 h after CA) and day 2 (normothermia, off sedation: on average 46 h after CA). Neurological outcome was assessed at 90 days with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), dichotomized as good (CPC 1-2) versus poor (CPC 3-5). Predictive performance was analyzed using area under the ROC curves (AUC). RESULTS: Patients with good outcome [n = 23 (46 %)] had higher quantitative PLR than those with poor outcome [n = 27; 16 (range 9-23) vs. 10 (1-30) % at day 1, and 20 (13-39) vs. 11 (1-55) % at day 2, both p < 0.001]. Best cut-off for outcome prediction of quantitative PLR was <13 %. The AUC to predict poor outcome was higher for quantitative than for standard PLR at both time points (day 1, 0.79 vs. 0.56, p = 0.005; day 2, 0.81 vs. 0.64, p = 0.006). Prognostic accuracy of quantitative PLR was comparable to that of EEG and SSEP (0.81 vs. 0.80 and 0.73, respectively, both p > 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative PLR is more accurate than standard PLR in predicting outcome of post-anoxic coma, irrespective of temperature and sedation, and has comparable prognostic accuracy than EEG and SSEP.

Monitoramento Ambiental da Estrada São Domingos – Assomada, Ilha de Santiago, Cabo Verde, com Ênfase na Compartimentação Geomorfológica

Este trabalho tem por objetivo a aferição dos impactos ambientais ocorridos ao longo da estrada São Domingos-Assomada, na ilha de Santiago na República de Cabo Verde, África Ocidental no período de 2003 a 2009, com ênfase sobre os compartimentos geomorfológicos e seus materiais estruturadores, bem como estabelecer medidas de minimização dos referidos impactos. O estudo ainda procurou mostrar que o monitoramento ambiental das obras da rodovia tem uma série de vantagens porque pode identificar tendências nocivas sobre as variáveis ambientais e sociais antes que seja tarde demais para minimizar ou prevenir seus impactos. Ao longo da pesquisa foram destacadas as principais atividades que originaram impactos ambientais causados pelas obras tanto na fase de reabilitação como na fase de exploração da via. Buscou-se ainda mostrar que a crescente intervenção antrópica ao longo da estrada tem repercutido cada vez mais intensamente sobre a dinâmica do relevo e nos processos de erosão do solo associados às práticas inadequadas de uso da terra. Os impactos ambientais ocorridos durante a exploração da via resultaram, sobretudo, na degradação dos compartimentos geomorfológicos, por estes se constituírem no principal suporte das demais organizações espaciais. Metodologicamente este trabalho abrangeu uma pesquisa aplicada de cunho descritivo e exploratório visando melhor identificar as alterações nos sistemas ambientais, decorrentes da implantação da estrada e das atividades antrópicas realizadas no seu entorno. A fim de estimar a repercussão das intervenções junto à população imediatamente afetada foram aplicadas entrevistas voltadas à avaliação da percepção dos riscos ambientais. A coleta de dados geomorfológicos em campo foi realizada mediante a observação in loco das condições ambientais e sua posterior cartografação em gabinete. Os resultados dessas foram cotejados com o levantamento da literatura especializada a fim de permitir o enquadramento coerente do grau dos agravos ambientais analisados. Os resultados do estudo apontaram que a degradação dos compartimentos geomorfológicos e suas formações superficiais não ocorrem unicamente em função da estrada, mas também pelas práticas tradicionais de uso da terra. Ainda foi possível constatar que no caso da estrada São Domingos – Assomada, as obras de recuperação não levam em conta à dinâmica do relevo, ou seja, não consideram os parâmetros morfogenéticos. Dessa forma, tais obras essenciais de infra-estrutura acabam, muitas vezes, durando pouco tempo, desperdiçando recursos financeiros que são escassos nos países em desenvolvimento.

Fick's law adapted to cationic diffusion in a semi-infinite solid: application to spinel megacrystals

In alkaline lavas, the chemical zoning of megacrystals of spinel is due to the cationic exchange between the latter and the host lava. The application of Fick's law to cationic diffusion profiles allows to calculate the time these crystals have stayed in the lava. Those which are in a chemical equilibrium were in contact with the lava during 20 to 30 days, whereas megacrystals lacking this equilibrium were in contact only for 3 or 4 days. The duration of the rise of an ultrabasic nodule in the volcanic chimney was calculated by applying Stokes' law.

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil. We studied seasonal foraging patterns of the queenless ant D. quadriceps (Formicidae, Ponerinae) for 24 months in a Caatinga area of northeastern Brazil, an ecosystem characterized by strong climatic changes throughout the year, in order to determine if regulation of worker activity is based on environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and/or food resources (potential prey: Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, Orthoptera, Araneae, Chilopoda and Diplopoda). Foraging activity of D. quadriceps varied over the course of both years, with the highest frequency occurring from May to August, corresponding to the late rainy season and early dry season. This foraging activity was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with the availability of potential prey, but not with total abundance of soil arthropods or with rainfall and relative humidity. Diet composition, in relation to the main taxonomic prey groups, seems to be common to the species, regardless of habitat. Our results suggest that D. quadriceps workers adjust foraging activity to the most suitable period of the year, to avoid thermal stress and increase efficiency. Thus, they present an appropriate behavioral response to seasonal fluctuations in the Caatinga.

O Sistema Semi-Presidencialista Cabo-verdiano: A Relação entre os Poderes Executivo e Legislativo

O artigo procura analisar a relação que se estabelece entre o poder executivo e legislativo no sistema de governo cabo-verdiano, onde Investigadores buscam compreendê-lo, tendo em conta a sua configuração prática, teórica e constitucional. Há que realçar a proeminência do debate e dos estudos realizados no sentido de compreender como é que a academia científica procura debelar esta problemática. Duas questões são pertinentes neste debate: a primeira refere-se à configuração teórico-constitucional do sistema de governo cabo-verdiano e a outra à prática política e legislativa.

The semi-presidential system of Cape Verde: the relationship between the executive and the legislative powers = O sistema semi-presidencialista caboverdiano: a relação entre os poderes executivo e legislativo

e article analyses the relationship established between the executive and legislative powers in the Cape Verdean government system where researchers seek to understand it, taking into account their theoretical and constitutional setting practice. It should be noted the prominence of the debate and studies undertaken to understand how the scienti c academy seeks to eradicate this problem. Two issues are relevant in this debate: the rst reporting to the theoretical and constitutional con guration of Cape Verdean government system and the other to its policy and legislative practice. Keywords: Cape Verde. Semi-presidential System. Systems of Government. Legislative and Executive Powers.

Extraction of soil water by plants: development and validation of a model

A quantitative model of water movement within the immediate vicinity of an individual root is developed and results of an experiment to validate the model are presented. The model is based on the assumption that the amount of water transpired by a plant in a certain period is replaced by an equal volume entering its root system during the same time. The model is based on the Darcy-Buckingham equation to calculate the soil water matric potential at any distance from a plant root as a function of parameters related to crop, soil and atmospheric conditions. The model output is compared against measurements of soil water depletion by rice roots monitored using γ-beam attenuation in a greenhouse of the Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"/Universidade de São Paulo(ESALQ/USP) in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1993. The experimental results are in agreement with the output from the model. Model simulations show that a single plant root is able to withdraw water from more than 0.1 m away within a few days. We therefore can assume that root distribution is a less important factor for soil water extraction efficiency.

The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future : an international workshop report and consensus statement

Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.

Fixação do N2 em leucena (Leucaena leucocephala) em solo da região semi-árida brasileira submetido à salinização

Com a finalidade de avaliar a tolerância de rhizobium loti em Leucaena leucocephala cv K8, submetida a níveis crescentes de salinidade, realizou-se um experimento em casa de vegetação, usando-se um Podzólico Vermelho-Amarelo textura franco-arenosa, coletado em Serra Talhada (PE). O experimento obedeceu ao arranjo fatorial 5 x 4, no delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com 3 repetições. Foram usados 5 níveis de salinidade do solo (C.E. = 1,5; 6,6; 10,1; 12,8 e 14,4 dS m-1) e 2 tratamentos inoculados (NFB 494 e SEMIA 6069), fertilização nitrogenada com 200 mg kg-1 de N (NH4NO3), e o controle sem inoculação e sem adubação nitrogenada. O incremento dos níveis crescentes de salinidade reduziu a nodulação (número e massa de nódulos), o rendimento de matéria seca e a acumulação de N na parte aérea. O tratamento com fertilização nitrogenada inibiu totalmente a nodulação em leucena, em todos os níveis de salinidade; contudo, promoveu melhores rendimentos na acumulação de N e na produção de matéria seca. Observou-se resposta significativa das plantas inoculadas com a estirpe SEMIA 6069, em todas as características avaliadas, superando os resultados obtidos com o isolado NFB 494.

Simple and fast methods based on solid-phase extraction coupled to liquid chromatography with UV detection for the monitoring of caffeine in natural and waste waters as marker of anthropogenic impact

Two concentration methods for fast and routine determination of caffeine (using HPLC-UV detection) in surface, and wastewater are evaluated. Both methods are based on solid-phase extraction (SPE) concentration with octadecyl silica sorbents. A common “offline” SPE procedure shows that quantitative recovery of caffeine is obtained with 2 mL of an elution mixture solvent methanol-water containing at least 60% methanol. The method detection limit is 0.1 μg L−1 when percolating 1 L samples through the cartridge. The development of an “online” SPE method based on a mini-SPE column, containing 100 mg of the same sorbent, directly connected to the HPLC system allows the method detection limit to be decreased to 10 ng L−1 with a sample volume of 100 mL. The “offline” SPE method is applied to the analysis of caffeine in wastewater samples, whereas the “on-line” method is used for analysis in natural waters from streams receiving significant water intakes from local wastewater treatment plants

Influence of tree species on the herbaceous understory and soil chemical characteristics in a silvopastoral system in semi-arid northeastern Brazil

Studies from some semi-arid regions of the world have shown the beneficial effect of trees in silvopastoral systems, by promoting the formation of resource islands and increasing the sustainability of the system. No data are available in this respect for tree species of common occurrence in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil. In the present study, conducted in the summer of 1996, three tree species (Zyziphus joazeiro, Spondias tuberosa and Prosopis juliflora: ) found within Cenchrus ciliaris pastures were selected to evaluate differences on herbaceous understory and soil chemical characteristics between samples taken under the tree canopy and in open grass areas. Transects extending from the tree trunk to open grass areas were established, and soil (0-15 cm) and herbaceous understory (standing live biomass in 1 m² plots) samples were taken at 0, 25, 50, 100, 150 and 200% of the average canopy radius (average radius was 6.6 ± 0.5, 4.5 ± 0.5, and 5.3 ± 0.8 m for Z. joazeiro, P. juliflora, and S. tuberosa , respectively). Higher levels of soil C, N, P, Ca, Mg, K, and Na were found under the canopies of Z. joazeiro and P. juliflora: trees, as compared to open grass areas. Only soil Mg organic P were higher under the canopies of S. tuberosa trees, as compared to open grass areas. Herbaceous understory biomass was significantly lower under the canopy of S. tuberosa and P. juliflora trees (107 and 96 g m-2, respectively) relatively to open grass areas (145 and 194 g m-2). No herbaceous biomass differences were found between Z. joazeiro canopies and open grass areas (107 and 87 g m-2, respectively). Among the three tree species studied, Z. joazeiro was the one that presented the greatest potential for use in a silvopastoral system at the study site, since it had a larger nutrient stock in the soil without negatively affecting herbaceous understory biomass, relatively to open grass areas.

Estimativa da acidez potencial pelo pH SMP em solos do semi-árido do Nordeste brasileiro

Neste estudo avaliou-se a relação entre o teor de H + Al e o pH SMP, visando estabelecer uma equação para estimar a acidez potencial de solos do Semi-Árido do Nordeste Brasileiro. As análises dos teores de H + Al e dos valores de pH SMP foram realizadas em 81 amostras de solo, variando os teores de carbono de 1,8 a 35,6 g kg-1 e os de argila de 60 a 590 g kg-1. Os resultados demonstraram que a acidez potencial dessas amostras de solo, expressa em mmol c dm-3, pode ser estimada pelo valor do pH em solução tampão SMP, por meio da equação de regressão: H + Al = 31,521 (pH SMP)² - 451,61 pH SMP + 1625,3 (R² = 0,87**).

Diet and breeding success of long-eared owls in a semi-arid environment

Only a few studies, and mostly in temperate climates in Europe, have examined the breeding and diet of long-eared owls (Asia otus) compared to studies of cavity-breeding owls, possibly because of the difficulties in reaching the nests of the former. Here we studied a population of long-eared owls, monitoring the diet of breeding owls and that of owls at a communal roost, every two to three months during 2006 -2009, in a semi-arid region in Israel. It was found that the studied owls produced more young than in most countries in Europe. Diet was not associated with breeding parameters of the owls, whereas laying date was negatively correlated with both clutch size and number of nestlings. We found that more social voles (Microtus socialis) and fewer birds and house mice (Mus musculus) made up the diet at nests than that of adults at the roosts. The diet and breeding of long-eared owls in Israel differ from that in Europe, with birds and mice comprising an important part of the diet, in addition to voles.