A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Successful rescue and field establishment of native banana varieties severely affected by rhizome rot

Rhizome rot disease caused by Erwinia spp. is emerging as a major problem in banana nurseries and young plantations worldwide. Management of the disease is possible only in the initial stages of development. Currently no method is available for rescuing plant material already infected with this pathogen. A total of 95 Nanjanagud Rasabale and 212 Elakki Bale suckers were collected from different growing regions of Karnataka, India. During nursery maintenance of these lines, severe Erwinia infection was noticed. We present a method to rescue infected plants and establish them under field conditions. Differences were noticed in infection severity amongst the varieties and their accessions. Field data revealed good establishment and growth of most rescued plants under field conditions. The discussed rescue protocol coupled with good field management practices resulted in 89.19 and 82.59 percent field establishment of previously infected var. Nanjanagud Rasabale and var. Elakki Bale plants, respectively.

Análisis del control ciudadano de la gestión pública en el municipio de Riohacha durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2004 y 2007

Con esta investigación se busca fortalecer las relaciones entre el government y la citizenship reflejándose en una transformación de la cultura institucional a partir de la cual se hiciera posible que la sociedad civil y el gobierno confluyeran en el propósito de mejorar la governance mediante las recomendaciones de la ciudadanía y la vigilancia y fiscalización que realizan las entidades de control. Riohacha, capital del departamento de la guajira es el principal objeto de este proyecto, pues llama la atención que es una de las ciudades más antiguas de Colombia, fundada en 1545 y se encuentra en un menor grado de desarrollo frente a todas las capitales de la región Caribe. De esta forma el control social es un instrumento clave y debe ser un derecho y un deber del ciudadano y ser ejercido de manera constante y transparente a través de figuras como las Citizens" watch. así se podría tener un control a la actividad administrativa y promover una mayor transparencia y eficiencia en el cumplimiento de los planes de desarrollo en el municipio de Riohacha.

El voto programático en Colombia. Garantías para su efectividad

La idea central de este texto es que la ineficacia del voto programático (un tipo de voto que vincula a algunos gobernantes en Colombia al cumplimiento de su programa de gobierno) debe ser duramente criticada desde una comprensión participativa y deliberativa de democracia y desde el punto de vista de la obligatoriedad del Derecho, y por lo tanto resuelta a partir del desarrollo de las garantías del voto programático ya previstas en la Constitución y en la ley, así como a partir de la creación de nuevas garantías. En la primera parte del texto, correspondiente al marco teórico de la investigación, se desarrolla el tema de los posibles vínculos entre quienes están sujetos al poder político y quienes lo ostentan en una democracia (básicamente, mandato representativo y mandato imperativo). En la segunda parte, luego de la descripción normativa del voto programático, se ofrece una revisión detallada de la revocatoria del mandato en Colombia, teniendo en cuenta los últimos avances legislativos e información sobre su puesta en práctica. Así mismo, el trabajo incorpora un estudio de la correspondencia que debe existir entre los planes de desarrollo de departamentos y municipios y los programas de gobierno impuestos por la vía del voto programático a los elegidos gobernadores y alcaldes, así como un análisis del tema del control sobre la Administración a partir de la idea de accountability. Finalmente, se ha incluido un capítulo que plantea la posibilidad de considerar el cumplimiento de las promesas políticas como un derecho subjetivo.

Estrategia Internacional para los Tratados de Libre Comercio en la Empresa Software House Ltda

Establecer un marco estandarizado de referencia que permita a la empresa Software House Ltda. Conocer los aspectos fundamentales para una caracterización de la empresa, teniendo en cuenta el análisis del sector, el análisis interno de la empresa, análisis de posibles países a exportar, el mejoramiento del servicio a exportar, el análisis de precios y el planteamiento del plan de mercado. Igualmente este proyecto soporta su desarrollo en la situación actual de la empresa para proponer planes de acción y de mejoramiento que le permitan el fortalecimiento interno de la misma focalizados a la preparación para la internacionalización de sus servicios.

Constitutional judges (guarantee of the Constitution and responsibility)

My aim in this paper is to propose a reflection on the position and the importance that the constitutional judge has in the legal systems of contemporary constitutionalism. The figure of the judge responsible of protecting the Constitution is a key institution, without which we cannot understand the laws of constitutional democracies, their current lines of development, and the guarantee of rights and freedoms that constitute the normative core of these systems. Moreover, the reflection on the exercise of the powers of the judge, its scope and its justification is an important part of contemporary legal discussion, still relevant, albeit not exclusively - in the field of legal philosophy. The object of attention of my reflection is the judge who has the power of judicial review, in a scheme of defense of the Constitution, regardless the specific ways of this defense.

Human development in an evolutionary perspective

This article presents an evolutionary perspective to the study of human development. Some general assumptions for the study of development are discussed and the principal building blocks of evolutionary psychology are presented. One of them is that there is a universal human nature (which is modulate also by particular conditions of each context) and the cognitive architecture of human beings is the resulted of interactions between genes and environment. Based on those, and other assumptions, directions for the study of child development in an evolutionary stance are discussed, along with the considerations of context and development. Thus, it is assumed there is a relationship between phylogenies and ontogenetic development (the ontogenesis needs to be understood also as a product of evolution), considering the inseparability of biological, socio-cultural, cognitive emotional aspects that constitute this development. It has been concluded that the evolutionary developmental psychology has scientific relevance because it broadens our vision on human development.

Evolution of analogical reasoning in children: follow-up from six to eleven years old

The aim of this study is to establish the time and period of development of Analogical Reasoning (AR) and evaluate its independence and performance with respect to the age. We performed a longitudinal cohort study of two age groups and six annual follow-up phases from each one (2000-2005, 2001-2006) in six to eleven years-old children in the city of Huanuco (Peru) with a sample of 167 children (first stage), and N=121 (sixth stage). The Raven’s progressive matrices test, coloured version, was applied individually without time limits. Results indicate that AR development occurs in a constant and late way from seven to eleven years-old children, and also that there is independence between the ability of AR and the children age. We discuss the importance of knowledge in the relationships between analogies topics, adjusted to the age, as a mediating factor in the development of AR.

Caracterización de la gestión del mantenimiento de equipo biomédico en servicios de urgencia de clínicas y hospitales de Medellín en el período 2008-2009

La gestión de mantenimiento es una herramienta de gran impacto que apoya al personal de Ingeniería en el desarrollo, control y dirección de programas de mantenimiento para el equipo médico. Objetivo: caracterizar la gestión de mantenimiento en servicios de urgencia de clínicas y hospitales del área metropolitana de Medellín en el período 2008-2009. Materiales y métodos: se realizó una encuesta a jefes y técnicos de mantenimiento en once entidades prestadoras de servicios de salud, clasificadas en tercer nivel y pertenecientes a la red de salud del municipio de Medellín. Resultados: entre las instituciones encuestadas se encontró que la causa de falla más común en los equipos del servicio de urgencia es el mal manejo de los equipos (75%) por partede los operarios y que 70% del mantenimiento es realizado por personal con experiencia en el área (tecnólogos en mantenimiento de equipo biomédico e ingenieros biomédicos). En las once instituciones públicas y privadas encuestadas se halló que solo se contaban con cronogramas de mantenimiento y/o con información desactualizada concerniente a las hojas de vida de los equipos, planes de mantenimiento o adquisición y baja de equipos. Conclusión: el estudio muestra la existencia de debilidades en ciertos puntos de la gestión, incluyendo mala organización, poca disponibilidad de repuestos originales y falta de capacitación en el personal que maneja los equipos.

¿Son los Planes de Desarrollo un mecanismo eficaz para el fortalecimiento de las democracias participativas?

El autor se interroga acerca de si el Consejo Nacional de Planeación, al igual que los consejos territoriales, son escenarios para el ejercicio de la democracia y si su participación, en la construcción de los planes de desarrollo, constituye un instrumento eficaz para su fortalecimiento o son, por el contrario, un espejismo en la praxis de la democracia en Colombia. En la primera parte se mencionan algunas versiones de democracia desde Lincoln, pasando por las versiones de Tocqueville, Shumpeter, Dahl, Bryce, Borón y Sartori. Se identifican en cada caso los elementos fundamentales para tenerlos como referente y soporte de análisis para dar cuenta, en la segunda parte, cuál o cuáles formas de esas democracias describen el modus operandi en el seno de los consejos de planeación en los niveles nacional o territorial. Igualmente se analiza el rol de los consejos de planeación, su legitimidad, la calidad y trascendencia de las intervenciones de sus miembros, así como la capacidad de incidir en el proyecto de ley del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo, para lo cual se recurre a entrevistar a miembros y ex miembros de los consejos Nacional y Distrital de planeación. El autor, además de responder algunos interrogantes que se plantea sobre el tema objeto de esta reflexión, deja planteados otros para la consideración de los lectores.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

Unemployment insurance in the presence of an informal sector

We study the effect of UI benefits in a typical developing country where the informal sector is sizeable and persistent. In a partial equilibrium environment, ruling out the macroeconomic consequences of UI benefits, we characterize the stationary equilibrium of an economy where policyholders may be employed in the formal sector, short-run unemployed receiving UI benefits or long-run unemployed without UI benefits. We perform comparative static exercises to understand how UI benefits affect unemployed worker´s effort to secure a formal job, their labor supply in the informal sector and leisure time. Our model reveals that an increase in UI benefits generates two opposing effects for the short-run unemployed. First, since search efforts cannot be monitored it generates moral hazard behaviours that lower effort. Second, it generates an income effect as it reduces the marginal cost of searching for a formal job and increases effort.The overall effect is ambiguous and depends on the relative strength of these two effects. Additionally, we show that an increase in UI benefits increases the efforts of long-run unemployed workers. We provide a simple simulation exercise which suggests that the income effect pointed out is not necessarily of second-order importance in comparison with moral hazard strength. This result softens the widespread opinion, usually based on the microeconomic/partial equilibrium argument that the presence of dual labor markets is an obstacle to providing UI in developing countries.

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.