Risk Management or Uncertainty Governance? The Challenge of an Interdiscplinary Approach

Peer-reviewed

Improving interMediAte Risk management. MARK study

Background: Cardiovascular risk functions fail to identify more than 50% of patients who develop cardiovascular disease. This is especially evident in the intermediate-risk patients in which clinical management becomes difficult. Our purpose is to analyze if ankle-brachial index (ABI), measures of arterial stiffness, postprandial glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, self-measured blood pressure and presence of comorbidity are independently associated to incidence of vascular events and whether they can improve the predictive capacity of current risk equations in the intermediate-risk population. Methods/Design: This project involves 3 groups belonging to REDIAPP (RETICS RD06/0018) from 3 Spanish regions. We will recruit a multicenter cohort of 2688 patients at intermediate risk (coronary risk between 5 and 15% or vascular death risk between 3-5% over 10 years) and no history of atherosclerotic disease, selected at random. We will record socio-demographic data, information on diet, physical activity, comorbidity and intermittent claudication. We will measure ABI, pulse wave velocity and cardio ankle vascular index at rest and after a light intensity exercise. Blood pressure and anthropometric data will be also recorded. We will also quantify lipids, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin in a fasting blood sample and postprandial capillary glucose. Eighteen months after the recruitment, patients will be followed up to determine the incidence of vascular events (later follow-ups are planned at 5 and 10 years). We will analyze whether the new proposed risk factors contribute to improve the risk functions based on classic risk factors. Discussion: Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is a priority in public health policy of developed and developing countries. The fundamental strategy consists in identifying people in a high risk situation in which preventive measures are effective and efficient. Improvement of these predictions in our country will have an immediate, clinical and welfare impact and a short term public health effect

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Stress testing practices in risk management - Empirical evidence from the Finnish banking and insurance sectors

The main purpose of this study was to analyze how stress tests are used in risk management in the Finnish banking and insurance sectors. In order to enhance understanding of the topic, stress testing was explored in the context of corporate governance and regulato-ry implications of Basel II and Solvency II on stress testing were examined. In addition, the effects of the global financial crisis on stress testing were mapped and the differences in stress testing practices between the banking and insurance sector were discussed. The research method was qualitative case study and it was conducted by interviewing risk managers from ten institutions and a representative from FIN-FSA. Findings pointed out that stress testing practices vary significantly between different institutions. Interesting observations were made in terms of stress testing practices in the banking and insurance sectors. The increasing importance and use of stress tests were recognized as a result of the financial crisis. Stress testing was even considered more like art than science given the amount of challenges it involves. In general, improvements in stress tests were suggested, with an emphasis on stress concentration between different types of risks.

IDEAS for Strategic Technology Management: Design of an electronically mediated scenario method

The age-old adage goes that nothing in this world lasts but change, and this generation has indeed seen changes that are unprecedented. Business managers do not have the luxury of going with the flow: they have to plan ahead, to think strategies that will meet the changing conditions, however stormy the weather seems to be. This demand raises the question of whether there is something a manager or planner can do to circumvent the eye of the storm in the future? Intuitively, one can either run on the risk of something happening without preparing, or one can try to prepare oneself. Preparing by planning for each eventuality and contingency would be impractical and prohibitively expensive, so one needs to develop foreknowledge, or foresight past the horizon of the present and the immediate future. The research mission in this study is to support strategic technology management by designing an effective and efficient scenario method to induce foresight to practicing managers. The design science framework guides this study in developing and evaluating the IDEAS method. The IDEAS method is an electronically mediated scenario method that is specifically designed to be an effective and accessible. The design is based on the state-of-the-art in scenario planning, and the product is a technology-based artifact to solve the foresight problem. This study demonstrates the utility, quality and efficacy of the artifact through a multi-method empirical evaluation study, first by experimental testing and secondly through two case studies. The construction of the artifact is rigorously documented as justification knowledge as well as the principles of form and function on the general level, and later through the description and evaluation of instantiations. This design contributes both to practice and foundation of the design. The IDEAS method contributes to the state-of-the-art in scenario planning by offering a light-weight and intuitive scenario method for resource constrained applications. Additionally, the study contributes to the foundations and methods of design by forging a clear design science framework which is followed rigorously. To summarize, the IDEAS method is offered for strategic technology management, with a confident belief that it will enable gaining foresight and aid the users to choose trajectories past the gales of creative destruction and off to a brighter future.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Approaches to Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification, Analysis and Control

Supply chain risk management has emerged as an increasingly important issue in logistics as disruptions in the supply chain have become critical issues for many companies. The scientific literature on the subject is developing and in many respects the understanding of it is still in its infancy. Thus, there is a need for more information in order for scholars and practitioners to understand the causalities and interrelations that characterise the phenomenon. The aim of this dissertation is to narrow this gap by exploring key aspects of supply chain risk management through two maritime supply chains in the immediate region of the Gulf of Finland. The study contributes to the field in three different ways. Firstly, it facilitates the identification of risks on different levels of the supply chain through a systematic analysis of the processes and actors, and of the cognitive barriers that limit the actors’ visibility and their understanding of the operations and the risks involved. There is a clear need to increase collaboration and information exchange in order to improve visibility in the chain. Risk management should be a collaborative effort among the individual actors, aimed at obtaining a holistic picture. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on risk analysis through the use of systemic frameworks that illustrate the causalities and linkages in the system, thereby making it easier to perceive the vulnerabilities. Thirdly, the study enhances current knowledge of risk control in identifying actor roles, risk visibility and risk controllability as being among the key factors determining risk-management effectiveness against supply-chain vulnerability. This dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part gives a general overview of the relevant literature, the research design and the conclusions of the study, and the second part comprises six research publications. Case-study methodology with systematic combining approach is used, where in-depth interviews, questionnaires and expert panel sessions are the main data collection methods. The study illustrates the current state of risk management in multimodal maritime supply chains, and develops frameworks for further analysis. The results imply that there are major differences between organizations in their ability to execute supply chain risk management. Further collaboration should be considered in order to facilitate the development of systematic and effective management processes.

Northern Landscapes : ʻʻImplementation of the European Landscape Convention In the North Calotte Area Municipalitiesʼʼ - Conference in Inari, Finland 7-9.9.2011

The conference promoting the objectives of the international European Landscape Convention (ELC) was held on 7-9 September 2011 in Inari. The primary aim of the conference was to increase awareness of the ELC and the prospects and requirements it brings to practical planning work, especially at the municipal level. The conference speakers included top experts from Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Holland and Catalonia. This report is a collection of articles written by the experts in the ELC conference. The report is available in five languages: Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian, Northern Sámi and English. The common characteristics of the North Calotte area, such as the magnificent riverside scenery and the beautiful fell landscapes formed by the Sámi culture and reindeer management are broadly reflected in the environment. Alongside the traditional forms of land use, many other livelihoods and forms of land use now need to be accommodated in the area. Tourism, energy production, mining industry and new infrastructure create new and manifold challenges to the authorities in charge of land use in these areas. Municipalities need information and support for versatile planning in the future, so that the unique and valuable characteristics of the North can be preserved. Landscape protection and management in the landscape areas is executed through areal and land use planning, mainly through town planning and the creation of landscape management plans. The municipalities in the North Calotte region have their own partly divergent methods and practices, based on the various land use processes are executed. The municipalities and inhabitants have a great interest in preserving and protecting their living environment and maintaining and increasing the appeal of the area. Landscape is viewed as one of the most significant appealing factors that cannot be lost. The increasing land use in municipalities, for example due to energy production, mining industry and increasing tourism, create a need for more multidimensional planning. The reconciliation of the wishes of different interest groups, and traditional and new livelihoods will not be easy. Conflict is inevitable. This will lead to a greater need to engage local bodies to the planning processes right from the start of the projects. Close cooperation between different administrative branches, operators, local bodies and landscape research promote the objectives of the convention. To ensure that the work continues, a landscape co-operation group is planned to be established in the North Calotte area. It´s main task is to promote and develop landscape policy in the area.

Risk management measures for REACH registered intermediate substances in pulp mill

Tämän työn tavoitteena on antaa kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä viidelle välituotekemikaalille, joita käytetään Stora Enson Imatran tehtailla. Välituotekemikaalit ovat mustalipeä, viherlipeä, valkolipeä, natriumbisulfiitti ja natriumsulfiitti. Nämä kemikaalit ovat jo rekisteröityjä ECHA:an ja rekisteröintiin liittyen ECHA:an on toimitettava myös kuvaus riskinhallintamenetelmistä. Työn alussa kuvaillaan työn kannalta olennaiset säädökset ja viranomaiset, jotka valvovat kemikaalien käyttöä ja valmistusta Euroopan Unionin alueella. Tämän jälkeen kerrotaan yleisesti välituotekemikaalien rekisteröintikriteereistä. Työn loppuosa käsittää kuvauksen riskinhallintamenetelmistä jokaiselle kemikaalille. Riskinhallintamenetelmät sisältävät eristyksen teknisin keinoin, menettelytapa- ja valvontatekniikat, johtamistavat ja henkilökunnan koulutuksen ja välituotekemikaalien kuljetuksen. Myös jokaisen kemikaalin ominaisuudet on kuvattu ja lyhyt prosessikuvaus kemikaalien valmistuksesta ja käytöstä on esitetty helpottamaan ymmärtämistä.

Epidemiology, management and outcome of facial injuries

Dental injuries are common and the incidence of maxillofacial injuries has increased over the recent decades in Finland. Accidental injuries are the global leading cause of death among children over the age of one year and among adults under the age of 40 globally. Significant resources and costs are needed for the treatment of these patients. The prevention is the most economical way to reduce trauma rates and costs. For the prevention it is crucial to know the prevalences, incidences and risk factors related to injuries. To improve the quality of treatment, it is essential to explore the causes, trauma mechanisms and management of trauma. The above mentioned was the aim of this thesis. With a large epidemiological cohort study (5737 participants) it was possible to estimate lifetime prevalence of and risk factors for dental trauma in general population (Study I). The prevalence of dental fractures was 43% and the prevalence of dental luxations and avulsions was 14%. Male gender, a history of previous non-dental injuries, mental distress, overweight and high alcohol consumption were positively associated with the occurrence of dental injuries Study II was conducted to explore the differences in type and multiplicity of mandibular fractures in three different countries (Canada, Finland and Kuwait). This retrospective study showed that the differences in mandibular fracture multiplicity and location are based on different etiologies and demographic patterns. This data can be exploited for planning of measures to prevent traumatic facial fractures. The etiology, management and outcome of 63 pediatric skull base fracture (Study III) and 20 pediatric frontobasal fracture patients (Study IV) were explored. These retrospective studies showed that, both skull base fracture and frontobasa fracture are rare injuries in childhood and although intracranial injuries and morbidity are frequent, permanent neurological or neuropsychological deficits are infrequent. A systematic algorithm (Study V) for computer tomography (CT) image review was aimed at clinicians and radiologists to improve the assessment of patients with complex upper midface and cranial base trauma. The cohort study was cross sectional and data was collected in the Turku and Oulu University Hospitals. A novel image-reviewing algorithm was created to enhance the specificity of CT for the diagnosis of frontobasal fractures. The study showed that an image-viewing algorithm standardizes the frontobasal trauma detection procedure and leads to better control and assessment. The purpose of the retrospective subcranial craniotomy study (VI) was to review the types of frontobasal fractures and their management, complications and outcome when the fracture is approached subcranially. The subcranial approach appears to be successful and have a reasonably low complication rate. It may be recommended as the technique of choice in multiple and the most complicated frontal base fractures where the endoscopic endonasal approach is not feasible.

Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Management of Soft Information in Sales and Operations Planning

With a Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process, a company aims to manage the demand and supply by planning and forecasting. The studied company uses an integrated S&OP process to improve the company's operations. The aim of this thesis is to develop this business process by finding the best possible way to manage the soft information in S&OP, whilst also understanding the importance and types (assumptions, risks and opportunities) of soft information in S&OP. The soft information in S&OP helps to refine future S&OP planning, taking into account the uncertainties that affect the balance of the long-term demand and supply (typically 12-18 months). The literature review was used to create a framework for soft information management process in S&OP. There were not found a concrete way how to manage soft information in the existing literature. In consequence of the poor literature available the Knowledge Management literature was used as the base for the framework creation, which was seen in the very same type of information management like the soft information management is. The framework created a four-stage process to manage soft information in S&OP that included also the required support systems. First phase is collecting and acquiring soft information in S&OP, which include also categorization. The categorization was the cornerstone to identify different requirements that needs to be taken into consideration when managing soft information in S&OP process. The next phase focus on storing data, which purpose is to ensure the soft information is managed in a common system (support system) in a way that the following phase makes it available to users in S&OP who need by help of sharing and applications process. The last phase target is to use the soft information to understand assumptions and thoughts of users behind the numbers in S&OP plans. With this soft management process the support system will have a key role. The support system, like S&OP tool, ensures that soft information is stored in the right places, kept up-to-date and relevancy. The soft information management process in S&OP strives to improve the relevant soft information documenting behind the S&OP plans into the S&OP support system. The process offers an opportunity to individuals to review, comment and evaluate soft information in S&OP made by their own or others. In the case company it was noticed that without a properly documented and distributed soft information in S&OP it was seen to cause mistrust towards the planning.

Value at Risk in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

This thesis examines the suitability of VaR in foreign exchange rate risk management from the perspective of a European investor. The suitability of four different VaR models is evaluated in respect to have insight if VaR is a valuable tool in managing foreign exchange rate risk. The models evaluated are historical method, historical bootstrap method, variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation. The data evaluated are divided into emerging and developed market currencies to have more intriguing analysis. The foreign exchange rate data in this thesis is from 31st January 2000 to 30th April 2014. The results show that the previously mentioned VaR models performance in foreign exchange risk management is not to be considered as a single tool in foreign exchange rate risk management. The variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation performs poorest in both currency portfolios. Both historical methods performed better but should also be considered as an additional tool along with other more sophisticated analysis tools. A comparative study of VaR estimates and forward prices is also included in the thesis. The study reveals that regardless of the expensive hedging cost of emerging market currencies the risk captured by VaR is more expensive and thus FX forward hedging is recommended