Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

Autoritarismes étatiques et régulation religieuse du politique en République démocratique du Congo : analyse discursive de la parole épiscopale catholique sur les élections (1990-2015)

Centrée essentiellement autour de la parole épiscopale congolaise, la présente recherche porte sur les articulations de la religion et du politique dans une perspective limitée au catholicisme en RDC. En prenant pour base empirique la ville de Kinshasa, elle thématise les effets des dynamiques religieuses sur les fermentations sociales et les changements politiques dans un contexte d’autoritarisme. Celui-ci est, dans ce travail, problématisé comme le fait conjoint de l’institution étatique et de l’organisation religieuse catholique. Le choix de cette approche relationnelle basée sur les interactions entre religion et politique, permet d’inscrire ce travail dans le champ d’études des sciences des religions. L’approche retenue s’appuie également sur les avancées de la sociologie politique et éclaire la régulation religieuse du politique, rarement étudiée par les sciences humaines. Cette recherche s’inscrit donc à l’intersection entre l’histoire, la sociologie, les sciences politiques, l’anthropologie, l’analyse du discours, la philosophie et la théologie. Sa thèse centrale est organisée autour d’une question principale : comment la religion participe-t-elle à la régulation du politique dans le contexte d’autoritarisme caractéristique de la RDC ? La réponse à cette question croise l’approche fonctionnelle de la religion et l’analyse des déclarations institutionnelles de l’épiscopat congolais. Elle esquisse les relations entre, d’une part, contextes et événements sociopolitiques et d’autre part, discours et pratiques religieuses. Elle construit la scène religieuse à partir de la trajectoire sociopolitique, économique et culturelle de la RDC entre 1990 et 2015, sous les Présidents J.-D. Mobutu, L.-D. Kabila et J. Kabila. Elle étudie l'offre normative de sens de leurs éminences J.-A. Malula, F. Etsou et L. Monsengwo. L’analyse de la rhétorique de l’épiscopat sur les élections vérifie la plausibilité sociale et l’efficience politique de la parole épiscopale congolaise. Elle se ressource dans la pragmatique de la communication telle que mise en œuvre dans l’analyse argumentative du discours de R. Amossy et dans celle du discours politique de P. Charaudeau. En mettant la focale sur l’objet linguistique « vérité des urnes », la recherche pose au niveau normatif, juridique et éthique, le problème de l’institutionnalisation d’un État de droit en RDC. Les élaborations sur ce dernier niveau s’articulent autour de l’inscription de l’éthique dans l’agir politique. L’examen des modes conventionnels d’action des chrétiens (élections de 2006 et 2011) et non conventionnels (marche des chrétiens de 1992 et 2012) conduit à éclairer les modes de reproduction ou de contestation de l’autoritarisme étatique par l’organisation religieuse. Il permet de promouvoir une démocratie des valeurs et d’action adossée à la parrhêsia. L’introduction de l’aléthique dans la vie publique donne à voir la parole épiscopale congolaise comme un discours ethopoïétique. C’est sur ce point précis que les élaborations de M. Foucault sur la parrhêsia aident à thématiser la capacité de la religion à informer et à influencer la démocratisation de la RDC. De là, la requête formulée pour un nouveau système d’action institutionnelle de l’organisation religieuse, susceptible de promouvoir le courage de la vérité en situation autoritaire. Cette innovation permet de tenir ensemble les valeurs démocratiques et les valeurs de l’Évangile, en les corrélant à la cohérence axiologique, à la probité morale et à l’intégrité existentielle des protagonistes de la démocratisation de la RDC.

La synthèse philosophico-juridique de V.S. Soloviev : élaboration et mise en œuvre d’un cadre théorique

Vladimir S. Soloviev (1853-1900) était un philosophe russe, poète et dissident de la période prérévolutionnaire. Comme celle de beaucoup de ses contemporains prérévolutionnaires russes, la pensée de Soloviev fut constamment sollicitée par la réfection imminente de l’État russe dans un futur très proche. Dans le contexte de cette époque, un examen des fondements théoriques du système juridique était peut-être inévitable. Néanmoins, dans la pensée russe, c’est seulement avec Soloviev que le droit cessa d’être un sujet spécialisé dans le domaine de l’administration, ne concernant guère les grands enjeux de société, et devint intimement lié au développement même de la philosophie morale et sociale. Au sein du projet philosophique systématique que propose Soloviev, le concept de l’unitotalité est envahissant, en termes épistémologique et social. Une pierre d’assise également fondamentale est le concept philosophico-religieux de la divino-humanité, à travers lequel la source de la dignité humaine est ultimement exprimée. La philosophie juridique de Soloviev, contenue pour l’essentiel dans un traité intitulé La Justification du bien : essai de philosophie morale (1897), a pour principal objet l’interaction entre le droit et la morale. Alors que l’objet et la portée du droit peuvent être directement déduits de principes moraux, le droit ne peut pas coïncider exactement avec la morale, compte tenu de son caractère plus limité, fini et coercitif. Pour Soloviev, le droit doit imposer un niveau minimum du bien en fournissant les conditions de base (par ex. la primauté du droit, le droit à une existence digne, la liberté de conscience) pour le libre développement des facultés humaines sans transposer directement en lui la plénitude complète du bien. La principale motivation de Soloviev réside dans la prémisse théologique sous-jacente que le bien ne peut jamais être complètement subsumé sauf par un acte conscient de liberté personnelle. En tandem, Soloviev souligne le rôle progressiste de l’État pour favoriser le libre perfectionnement humain. En tant que tel, Soloviev nous fournit certaines voies innovatrices dans le façonnement de la relation tant théorique que pratique entre le droit et la religion. À l’encontre d’un compromis entre objets, c’est-à-dire un arrangement de type interculturel situé entre fragmentation culturelle (multiculturalisme idéologique) et assimilation antireligieuse (laïcité militante), l’analyse de Soloviev présente la nécessité d’une conciliation temporelle, dans une perspective historique beaucoup plus large, où la laïcité est considérée non pas comme une finalité ontologique en soi, figée dans le temps, mais comme un moyen au service d’une destinée humaine en cours d’actualisation. Le cadre philosophico-juridique de Soloviev peut être utilement mis en dialogue avec des auteurs contemporains comme Stephen L. Carter, Charles Taylor, John Witte Jr, Ronald Dworkin et Jürgen Habermas. La contribution potentielle de Soloviev sur la place de la religion dans la société russe contemporaine est également mentionnée, avec un accent particulier sur le réexamen critique de l’héritage durable de la notion byzantine de la symphonie entre l’Église et l’État. Enfin, une théorie du fédéralisme inspirée par Soloviev est développée en appliquant, sur une base comparative, des avancées théoriques dans le domaine de l’histoire juridique global à l’évolution constitutionnelle du Canada et d’Israël.

Three Essays on Taxation, Growth and Consumption

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine three distributional issues in macroeconomics. First I explore the effects fiscal federalism on economic growth across regions in China. Using the comprehensive official data set of China for 31 regions from 1952 until 1999, I investigate a number of indicators used by the literature to measure federalism and find robust support for only one such measure: the ratio of local total revenue to local tax revenue. Using a difference-in-difference approach and exploiting the two-year gap in the implementation of a tax reform across different regions of China, I also identify a positive relationship between fiscal federalism and regional economic growth. The second paper hypothesizes that an inequitable distribution of income negatively affects the rule of law in resource-rich economies and provides robust evidence in support of this hypothesis. By investigating a data set that contains 193 countries and using econometric methodologies such as the fixed effects estimator and the generalized method of moments estimator, I find that resource-abundance improves the quality of institutions, as long as income and wealth disparity remains below a certain threshold. When inequality moves beyond this threshold, the positive effects of the resource-abundance level on institutions diminish quickly and turn negative eventually. This paper, thus, provides robust evidence about the endogeneity of institutions and the role income and wealth inequality plays in the determination of long-run growth rates. The third paper sets up a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to investigate the causal channels which run from a concern for international status to long-run economic growth. The simulation results show that the initial distribution of income and wealth play an important role in whether agents gain or lose from globalization.

British torture in the 'war on terror'

Despite longstanding allegations of UK involvement in prisoner abuse during counterterrorism operations as part of the US-led ‘war on terror’, a consistent narrative emanating from British government officials is that Britain neither uses, condones nor facilitates torture or other cruel, inhuman, degrading treatment and punishment. We argue that such denials are untenable. We have established beyond reasonable doubt that Britain has been deeply involved in post-9/11 prisoner abuse, and we can now provide the most detailed account to date of the depth of this involvement. We argue that it is possible to identify a peculiarly British approach to torture in the ‘war on terror’, which is particularly well-suited to sustaining a narrative of denial. To explain the nature of UK involvement, we argue that it can be best understood within the context of how law and sovereign power have come to operate during the ‘war on terror’. We turn here to the work of Judith Butler, and explore the role of Britain as a ‘petty sovereign’, operating under the state of exception established by the US Executive. UK authorities have not themselves suspended the rule of law so overtly, and indeed have repeatedly insisted on their commitment to it. They have nevertheless been able to construct a rhetorical, legal and policy ‘scaffold’ that has enabled them to demonstrate at least procedural adherence to human rights norms, while at the same time allowing UK officials to acquiesce in the arbitrary exercise of sovereignty over individuals who are denied any access to appropriate representation or redress in compliance with the rule of law.

La loi applicable aux transferts de biens virtuels

Thèse réalisée en cotutelle avec l'université Paris1-Sorbonne

Living with Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look at Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting

This paper examines assumptions about future prices used in real estate applications of DCF models. We confirm both the widespread reliance on an ad hoc rule of increasing period-zero capitalization rates by 50 to 100 basis points to obtain terminal capitalization rates and the inability of the rule to project future real estate pricing. To understand how investors form expectations about future prices, we model the spread between the contemporaneously period-zero going-in and terminal capitalization rates and the spread between terminal rates assigned in period zero and going-in rates assigned in period N. Our regression results confirm statistical relationships between the terminal and next holding period going-in capitalization rate spread and the period-zero discount rate, although other economically significant variables are statistically insignificant. Linking terminal capitalization rates by assumption to going-in capitalization rates implies investors view future real estate pricing with myopic expectations. We discuss alternative specifications devoid of such linkage that align more with a rational expectations view of future real estate pricing.

Bayesian nonparametric latent variable models

L’un des problèmes importants en apprentissage automatique est de déterminer la complexité du modèle à apprendre. Une trop grande complexité mène au surapprentissage, ce qui correspond à trouver des structures qui n’existent pas réellement dans les données, tandis qu’une trop faible complexité mène au sous-apprentissage, c’est-à-dire que l’expressivité du modèle est insuffisante pour capturer l’ensemble des structures présentes dans les données. Pour certains modèles probabilistes, la complexité du modèle se traduit par l’introduction d’une ou plusieurs variables cachées dont le rôle est d’expliquer le processus génératif des données. Il existe diverses approches permettant d’identifier le nombre approprié de variables cachées d’un modèle. Cette thèse s’intéresse aux méthodes Bayésiennes nonparamétriques permettant de déterminer le nombre de variables cachées à utiliser ainsi que leur dimensionnalité. La popularisation des statistiques Bayésiennes nonparamétriques au sein de la communauté de l’apprentissage automatique est assez récente. Leur principal attrait vient du fait qu’elles offrent des modèles hautement flexibles et dont la complexité s’ajuste proportionnellement à la quantité de données disponibles. Au cours des dernières années, la recherche sur les méthodes d’apprentissage Bayésiennes nonparamétriques a porté sur trois aspects principaux : la construction de nouveaux modèles, le développement d’algorithmes d’inférence et les applications. Cette thèse présente nos contributions à ces trois sujets de recherches dans le contexte d’apprentissage de modèles à variables cachées. Dans un premier temps, nous introduisons le Pitman-Yor process mixture of Gaussians, un modèle permettant l’apprentissage de mélanges infinis de Gaussiennes. Nous présentons aussi un algorithme d’inférence permettant de découvrir les composantes cachées du modèle que nous évaluons sur deux applications concrètes de robotique. Nos résultats démontrent que l’approche proposée surpasse en performance et en flexibilité les approches classiques d’apprentissage. Dans un deuxième temps, nous proposons l’extended cascading Indian buffet process, un modèle servant de distribution de probabilité a priori sur l’espace des graphes dirigés acycliques. Dans le contexte de réseaux Bayésien, ce prior permet d’identifier à la fois la présence de variables cachées et la structure du réseau parmi celles-ci. Un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov est utilisé pour l’évaluation sur des problèmes d’identification de structures et d’estimation de densités. Dans un dernier temps, nous proposons le Indian chefs process, un modèle plus général que l’extended cascading Indian buffet process servant à l’apprentissage de graphes et d’ordres. L’avantage du nouveau modèle est qu’il admet les connections entres les variables observables et qu’il prend en compte l’ordre des variables. Nous présentons un algorithme d’inférence Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov avec saut réversible permettant l’apprentissage conjoint de graphes et d’ordres. L’évaluation est faite sur des problèmes d’estimations de densité et de test d’indépendance. Ce modèle est le premier modèle Bayésien nonparamétrique permettant d’apprendre des réseaux Bayésiens disposant d’une structure complètement arbitraire.

A ampla defesa e o contraditório aplicados ao inquérito policial

Trata-se de um estudo sistêmico e metódico dos institutos da ampla defesa e do contraditório aplicados no bojo de um inquérito policial à luz dos demais princípios constitucionais fundamentais. Far-se-á um olhar comparativo entre as normas e demais fatores jurídicos, políticos, econômicos e sociais do Brasil e de Portugal, bem como referências subsidiárias de outros países da Europa e do mundo. O tema gira em torno do sistema processual penal brasileiro no que tange às investigações preliminares da polícia judiciária. Estabelece como ponto de partida a efetivação do Estado Democrático de Direito no processo de construção de uma sociedade comprometida no senso de igualdade e justiça. Para tanto, avaliaremos a conveniência de se instituir aqueles princípios no texto constitucional e respectivas leis como forma de dar concretude à formação da culpa do acusado ainda na fase policial; ou, pelo menos, para promover uma investigação criminal livres de quaisquer vícios. Também será necessário refletir sobre a evolução da persecução penal no mundo e no Brasil para que possamos, a partir de uma análise comparativa, avaliar os aspectos positivos e negativos que devem ser repetidos ou rechaçados. Proporemos uma mudança de paradigma de investigação criminal, elegendo o órgão ministerial como condutor das investigações, em contraponto ao atual modelo brasileiro que deposita essa prerrogativa exclusivamente nas mãos da polícia judiciária, para então concluirmos se vale a pena uma alteração normativa lastreada na otimização dos resultados no combate à criminalidade tendo o inquérito policial como instrumento de controle. Nesta esteira, feito o breve estudo da evolução histórica dos institutos, passaremos por uma reflexão mais moderna do Estado Garantidor pautado no senso democrático atual, para, então, esmiuçar a merecida atenção dos princípios fundamentais constitucionais e finalmente mergulhar nos principais aspectos do inquérito policial, sempre propondo a eventual aplicabilidade da ampla defesa e do contraditório como forma de compatibilizar de vez com a noção de democracia plena dos institutos penais. Em seguida, iremos colacionar os resultados da pesquisa empírica feita por meio de entrevistas com profissionais de alta envergadura jurídica, os quais apresentarão suas perspectivas quanto ao tema e terão suas manifestações analisadas de forma qualiquantitativa. Concluiremos o trabalho com as reflexões finais.

Spanish monarchy and the Portuguese Republic: two routes to democratization

From 1974 to 1986 the Iberian Peninsula was the arena of major political changes. The process then undertaken was characterized by the transition from two Iberian authoritarian regimes to two democracies, which enabled both countries to join the European Economic Community (EEC) on 1 January 1986. However, the political vicissitudes until full membership of what became the European Union (EU) was achieved were very different and were decisively, although not exclusively, influenced by the fact Portugal was a republic and Spain a monarchy. In Portugal the 1974 revolution took place with consequent shift of the head of state while in Spain the engine of change was precisely the head of state: King Juan Carlos I. It is also true that despite the dangers to democracy (terrorism in Spain and some radicalism in Portugal) both societies supported the political parties committed to the democratic process in elections, which helped avoid tensions that could have defeated the process. Likewise, it is possible to argue that in Spain a plan to achieve democracy within the rule of law (an archetypal transition) was designed by the head of state, while in Portugal there was no pre-established plan – the programme of the Armed Forces Movement (Movimento das Forças Armadas [MFA]) was a weak and precarious compromise between different visions of the road to follow, enabling an intense political struggle that almost led to civil war and a dangerous state of crisis.

Modelagem de emoções utilizando redes bayesianas

As emoções são consideradas a regra central de nossas vidas, tendo grande impacto na tomada de decisões, ações, memória, atenção, etc. Sendo assim, existe grande interesse em simulá-las em ambientes computacionais, possibilitando que situações do cotidiano humano possam ser estudadas em ambientes controlados. Embora existam modelos teóricos para o funcionamento de emoções, estes por si só são insuficientes para uma simulação precisa em meios computacionais. Tendo como base um destes modelos, o modelo OCC, essa dissertação propõe a simulação de emoções em ambientes mutiagentes através da criação de uma rede Bayesiana capaz de traduzir estímulos gerados neste ambiente em emoções. A utilização de redes Bayesianas combinadas à estrutura do modelo OCC busca a adição de imprevisibilidade ao modelo, além de fornecê-lo uma estrutura computacional. A aplicação do modelo proposto a um sistema multiagentes proporciona o estudo da influência das emoções sobre as ações e comportamento dos agentes, possibilitando um estudo de comparação entre os resultados obtidos ao se realizar uma simulação multiagentes clássica e uma simulação multiagentes contendo emoções. De forma a validar e avaliar seu funcionamento, é apresentado o estudo da aplicação da rede Bayesiana de emoções sobre um modelo multiagentes exemplo, observando as variações que as emoções provocam sobre o comportamento dos agentes.

A Better Place to Be: Republicanism as an Alternative to the Authoritarianism-Democracy Dichotomy

ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: A BETTER PLACE TO BE: REPUBLICANISM AS AN ALTENATIVE TO THE AUTHORITARIANISM-DEMOCRACY DICHOTOMY Christopher Ronald Binetti, Doctor of Philosophy, and 2016 Dissertation directed by: Dr. Charled Frederick Alford, Department of Government and Politics In this dissertation, I argue that in modern or ancient regimes, the simple dichotomy between democracies and autocracies/dictatorships is both factually wrong and problematic for policy purposes. It is factually wrong because regimes between the two opposite regime types exist and it is problematic because the either/or dichotomy leads to extreme thinking in terms of nation-building in places like Afghanistan. In planning for Afghanistan, the argument is that either we can quickly nation-build it into a liberal democracy or else we must leave it in the hands of a despotic dictator. This is a false choice created by both a faulty categorization of regime types and most importantly, a failure to understand history. History shows us that the republic is a regime type that defies the authoritarian-democracy dichotomy. A republic by my definition is a non-dominating regime, characterized by a (relative) lack of domination by any one interest group or actor, mostly non-violent competition for power among various interest groups/factions, the ability of factions/interest groups/individual actors to continue to legitimately play the political game even after electoral or issue-area defeat and some measure of effectiveness. Thus, a republic is a system of government that has institutions, laws, norms, attitudes, and beliefs that minimize the violation of the rule of law and monopolization of power by one individual or group as much as possible. These norms, laws, attitudes, and beliefs ae essential to the republican system in that they make those institutions that check and balance power work. My four cases are Assyria, Persia, Venice and Florence. Assyria and Persia are ancient regimes, the first was a republic and then became the frightening opposite of a republic, while the latter was a good republic for a long time, but had effectiveness issues towards the end. Venice is a classical example of a medieval or early modern republic, which was very inspirational to Madison and others in building republican America. Florence is the example of a medieval republic that fell to despotism, as immortalized by Machiavelli’s writings. In all of these examples, I test certain alternative hypotheses as well as my own.

Interface cena e tecnologia : composições cênicas mediadas

Based on the presupposition that the arts in the West always counted on resources, supports, and devices pertaining to its time context, an reflection is intended regarding the scenic compositions mediated by digital technologies do. Such technologies are inserted in the daily routine, also composing artistic experiments, thus playing a dialogical role with the art/technology intersection. Therefore, the proposal is to investigate what relationships are established in the contemporary theatrical scene from the contagion by digital technologies, aiming at establishing this parallel through a dialogue with the authors discussing the subject, and also based on the group practices having technological resources as a determinant factor in their plays. Furthermore, a reflection should be made on the scene that incorporates or is carried out in intermediatic events, analyzing how digital technologies (re)configure compositional processes of the plays by GAG Phila7, in the city of São Paulo/SP. For such, the dissertation is organized in three sections comprising four moments, to wit: brief overview of the field, contextualization, poetic analysis and synthesis. Qualitative methods are used as the methodological proposal: semi-structure interview, note and document taking (program, website, playing book, disclosure material for advertising text, photographs, and videos). Within the universe of qualitative research, it works with the epistemological perspective of the Gadamer philosophical hermeneutics. The possibilities allowed by the double virtual (Internet/web) generated a type of theater with another material basis and new forms of organization and structure, being possible to perceive that such technological advances and the arts are mutually contaminated, generating a dislocation in the logics of theatrical composition, movement beginning with the artistic vanguards, gradually intensified, thus offering new possibilities of constructions and hybridization of the of the most different possible types. Experiment ―Profanações_superfície de eventos de construção coletiva‖, idealized by Phila7 is inserted in this perspective. Object of the discussion of such research, the experiment works with possible poetics arising from the intersection with the digital technologies, aiming at identifying and problematizing the challenges from the technological evolution and expansion in a scenic context

A tributação dos residentes não habituais: o caso português

No ano de 2009, foi introduzido no ordenamento jurídico português um regime de tributação privilegiado com vista a atrair estrangeiros de elevado valor acrescentado, promovendo o investimento e aumentando a qualificação da mão-de-obra. Apesar de não se tratar de uma experiência pioneira no domínio da tributação, assume-se verdadeiramente competitivo face aos restantes regimes em vigor na União Europeia, nomeadamente quanto ao âmbito e critérios de aplicação, bem como quanto à sua duração. A inevitável interação deste regime com as Convenções para evitar a Dupla Tributação e com o princípio da não discriminação, conduz-nos numa análise transversal que permita efetuar uma avaliação global e sistematizada dos benefícios que lhe estão subjacentes. Verifica-se que os eventuais constrangimentos com as Convenções para evitar a Dupla Tributação apesar de reais e de difícil eliminação resultam, por vezes, em situações bastante favoráveis para os seus beneficiários, como acontece com a dupla isenção concedida às pensões de fonte estrangeira. Complementarmente, consideramos que o facto de configurar um verdadeiro benefício fiscal, promovendo uma derrogação do regime regra da tributação em IRS, não compromete o princípio constitucional da não discriminação.