A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

The influence of cultural selection on strategic communication

Strategic communication is held to be a key process by which organisations respond to environmental uncertainty. In the received view articulated in the literatures of organisational communication and public relations, strategic communication results from collaborative efforts by organisational members to create shared understanding about environmental uncertainty and, as a result of this collective understanding, formulate appropriate communication responses. In this study, I explore how such collaborative efforts towards the development of strategic communication are derived from, and bounded by, culturally shared values and assumptions. Study of the influences of an organisation‟s culture on the formulation of strategic communication is a fundamental conceptual challenge for public relations and, to date, a largely unaddressed area of research. This thesis responds to this challenge by describing a key property of organisational culture – the action of cultural selection (Durham, 1992). I integrate this property of cultural selection to extend and refine the descriptive range of Weick‟s (1969, 1979) classic sociocultural model of organizing. From this integration I propose a new model, the Cultural Selection of Strategic Communication (CSSC). Underpinning the CSSC model is the central proposition that because of the action of cultural selection during organizing processes, the inherently conservative properties of an organisation‟s culture constrain development of effective strategic communication in ways that may be unrelated to the outcomes of “environmental scanning” and other monitoring functions heralded by the public relations literature as central to organisational adaptation. Thus, by examining the development of strategic communication, I describe a central conservative influence on the social ecology of organisations. This research also responds to Butschi and Steyn‟s (2006) call for the development of theory focusing on strategic communication as well as Grunig (2006) and Sriramesh‟s (2007) call for research to further understand the role of culture in public relations practice. In keeping with the explorative and descriptive goals of this study, I employ organisational ethnography to examine the influence of cultural selection on the development of strategic communication. In this methodological approach, I use the technique of progressive contextualisation to compare data from two related but distinct cultural settings. This approach provides a range of descriptive opportunities to permit a deeper understanding of the work of cultural selection. Findings of this study propose that culture, operating as a system of shared and socially transmitted social knowledge, acts through the property of cultural selection to influence decision making, and decrease conceptual variation within a group. The findings support the view that strategic communication, as a cultural product derived from the influence of cultural selection, is an essential feature to understand the social ecology of an organisation.

Gait energy volumes and frontal gait recognition using depth images

Gait energy images (GEIs) and its variants form the basis of many recent appearance-based gait recognition systems. The GEI combines good recognition performance with a simple implementation, though it suffers problems inherent to appearance-based approaches, such as being highly view dependent. In this paper, we extend the concept of the GEI to 3D, to create what we call the gait energy volume, or GEV. A basic GEV implementation is tested on the CMU MoBo database, showing improvements over both the GEI baseline and a fused multi-view GEI approach. We also demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on partial volume reconstructions created from frontal depth images, which can be more practically acquired, for example, in biometric portals implemented with stereo cameras, or other depth acquisition systems. Experiments on frontal depth images are evaluated on an in-house developed database captured using the Microsoft Kinect, and demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

Quality delivery of mobile video : in-depth understanding of user requirements

The increase of powerful mobile devices has accelerated the demand for mobile videos. Previous studies in mobile video have focused on understanding of mobile video usage, improvement of video quality, and user interface design in video browsing. However, research focusing on a deep understanding of users’ needs for a pleasing quality delivery of mobile video is lacking. In particular, what quality-delivery mode users prefer and what information relevant to video quality they need requires attention. This paper presents a qualitative interview study with 38 participants to gain an insight into three aspects: influencing factors of user-desired video quality, user-preferred quality-delivery modes, and user-required interaction information of mobile video. The results show that user requirements for video quality are related to personal preference, technology background and video viewing experience, and the preferred quality-delivery mode and interactive mode are diverse. These complex user requirements call for flexible and personalised quality delivery and interaction of mobile video.

National Cultural Policy submission

This was my submission to the Australian Federal Government’s call for submissions in response to the National Cultural Policy Discussion Paper.

Toward automated power line corridor monitoring using advanced aircraft control and multisource feature fusion

The conventional manual power line corridor inspection processes that are used by most energy utilities are labor-intensive, time consuming and expensive. Remote sensing technologies represent an attractive and cost-effective alternative approach to these monitoring activities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into automated remote sensing based power line corridor monitoring, focusing on recent innovations in the area of increased automation of fixed-wing platforms for aerial data collection, and automated data processing for object recognition using a feature fusion process. Airborne automation is achieved by using a novel approach that provides improved lateral control for tracking corridors and automatic real-time dynamic turning for flying between corridor segments, we call this approach PTAGS. Improved object recognition is achieved by fusing information from multi-sensor (LiDAR and imagery) data and multiple visual feature descriptors (color and texture). The results from our experiments and field survey illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed aircraft control and feature fusion approaches.

Extending client-centered support : counselors’ proposals to shift from email to telephone counseling

The availability and use of online counseling approaches has increased rapidly over the last decade. While research has suggested a range of potential affordances and limitations of online counseling modalities, very few studies have offered detailed examinations of how counselors and clients manage asynchronous email counseling exchanges. In this paper we examine email exchanges involving clients and counselors through Kids Helpline, a national Australian counseling service that offers free online, email and telephone counseling for young people up to the age of 25. We employ tools from the traditions of ethnomethodology and conversation analysis to analyze the ways in which counselors from Kids Helpline request that their clients call them, and hence change the modality of their counseling relationship, from email to telephone counseling. This paper shows the counselors’ three multi-layered approaches in these emails as they negotiate the potentially delicate task of requesting and persuading a client to change the trajectory of their counseling relationship from text to talk without placing that relationship in jeopardy.

A survey on six sigma implementation in Singapore service industries

The concept of Six Sigma was initiated in the 1980s by Motorola. Since then it has been implemented in several manufacturing and service organizations. In case of services, health care and finance were major beneficiaries till now. The application of Six Sigma is gradually picking up in other services like; call centers, utilities and public services. This paper provides empirical evidence on Six Sigma implementation in service industries in Singapore. By using a sample size of 50 service organizations (10 responses are from organizations which have implemented Six Sigma), the paper helps in understanding the status of Six Sigma in service organizations in Singapore. The findings confirm the inclusion of critical success factors, critical to quality characteristics, tools and key performance indicators as observed from the literature. The revelation of “not relevant” as a reason for not implementing Six Sigma shows the need for understanding specific requirements of service organizations before its application.

Problems with a great idea : referral by prehospital emergency services to a community-based falls-prevention service

Background and aim Falls are the leading cause of injury in older adults. Identifying people at risk before they experience a serious fall requiring hospitalisation allows an opportunity to intervene earlier and potentially reduce further falls and subsequent healthcare costs. The purpose of this project was to develop a referral pathway to a community falls-prevention team for older people who had experienced a fall attended by a paramedic service and who were not transported to hospital. It was also hypothesised that providing intervention to this group of clients would reduce future falls-related ambulance call-outs, emergency department presentations and hospital admissions. Methods An education package, referral pathway and follow-up procedures were developed. Both services had regular meetings, and work shadowing with the paramedics was also trialled to encourage more referrals. A range of demographic and other outcome measures were collected to compare people referred through the paramedic pathway and through traditional pathways. Results Internal data from the Queensland Ambulance Service indicated that there were approximately six falls per week by community-dwelling older persons in the eligible service catchment area (south west Brisbane metropolitan area) who were attended to by Queensland Ambulance Service paramedics, but not transported to hospital during the 2-year study period (2008–2009). Of the potential 638 eligible patients, only 17 (2.6%) were referred for a falls assessment. Conclusion Although this pilot programme had support from all levels of management as well as from the service providers, it did not translate into actual referrals. Several explanations are provided for these preliminary findings.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Data flow analysis of embedded program expressions

Data flow analysis techniques can be used to help assess threats to data confidentiality and integrity in security critical program code. However, a fundamental weakness of static analysis techniques is that they overestimate the ways in which data may propagate at run time. Discounting large numbers of these false-positive data flow paths wastes an information security evaluator's time and effort. Here we show how to automatically eliminate some false-positive data flow paths by precisely modelling how classified data is blocked by certain expressions in embedded C code. We present a library of detailed data flow models of individual expression elements and an algorithm for introducing these components into conventional data flow graphs. The resulting models can be used to accurately trace byte-level or even bit-level data flow through expressions that are normally treated as atomic. This allows us to identify expressions that safely downgrade their classified inputs and thereby eliminate false-positive data flow paths from the security evaluation process. To validate the approach we have implemented and tested it in an existing data flow analysis toolkit.

Mathematics and complex learning

There is unprecedented worldwide demand for mathematical solutions to complex problems. That demand has generated a further call to update mathematics education in a way that develops students’ abilities to deal with complex systems.

Evolutionary morphing for music composition

From one view of composition—let us call it the inspired or “Mozartian” view—musical compositions arrive fully formed in the mind of the composer and simply require transcription. In reality, however, it seems that very few people are so inspired, and composition is often more akin to a gradual clarification and refinement of partially formed ideas on the musical landscape. Particular landmarks in the compositional landscape tend to become clear before others, such that the incomplete piece is a patchwork of disconnected musical islands. An interactive evolutionary morphing system may provide some assistance for composers, to help build bridges between musical islands by generating hybrid musical transitions.

Adherence, adaptation and acceptance of elderly chronic heart failure patients to receiving healthcare via telephone-monitoring

Background: Although the potential to reduce hospitalisation and mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF) is well reported, the feasibility of receiving healthcare by structured telephone support or telemonitoring is not. Aims: To determine; adherence, adaptation and acceptability to a national nurse-coordinated telephone-monitoring CHF management strategy. The Chronic Heart Failure Assistance by Telephone Study (CHAT). Methods: Triangulation of descriptive statistics, feedback surveys and qualitative analysis of clinical notes. Cohort comprised of standard care plus intervention (SC + I) participants who completed the first year of the study. Results: 30 GPs (70% rural) randomised to SC + I recruited 79 eligible participants, of whom 60 (76%) completed the full 12 month follow-up period. During this time 3619 calls were made into the CHAT system (mean 45.81 SD ± 79.26, range 0-369), Overall there was an adherence to the study protocol of 65.8% (95% CI 0.54-0.75; p = 0.001) however, of the 60 participants who completed the 12 month follow-up period the adherence was significantly higher at 92.3% (95% CI 0.82-0.97, p ≤ 0.001). Only 3% of this elderly group (mean age 74.7 ±9.3 years) were unable to learn or competently use the technology. Participants rated CHAT with a total acceptability rate of 76.45%. Conclusion: This study shows that elderly CHF patients can adapt quickly, find telephone-monitoring an acceptable part of their healthcare routine, and are able to maintain good adherence for a least 12 months. © 2007.