Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Interaction of adult human neural crest-derived stem cells with a nanoporous titanium surface is sufficient to induce their osteogenic differentiation

Osteogenic differentiation of various adult stem cell populations such as neural crest-derived stem cells is of great interest in the context of bone regeneration. Ideally, exogenous differentiation should mimic an endogenous differentiation process, which is partly mediated by topological cues. To elucidate the osteoinductive potential of porous substrates with different pore diameters (30 nm, 100 nm), human neural crest-derived stem cells isolated from the inferior nasal turbinate were cultivated on the surface of nanoporous titanium covered membranes without additional chemical or biological osteoinductive cues. As controls, flat titanium without any topological features and osteogenic medium was used. Cultivation of human neural crest-derived stem cells on 30 nm pores resulted in osteogenic differentiation as demonstrated by alkaline phosphatase activity after seven days as well as by calcium deposition after 3 weeks of cultivation. In contrast, cultivation on flat titanium and on membranes equipped with 100 nm pores was not sufficient to induce osteogenic differentiation. Moreover, we demonstrate an increase of osteogenic transcripts including Osterix, Osteocalcin and up-regulation of Integrin β1 and α2 in the 30 nm pore approach only. Thus, transplantation of stem cells pre-cultivated on nanostructured implants might improve the clinical outcome by support of the graft adherence and acceleration of the regeneration process.

Precise analysis of array usage in scientific programs

The automatic transformation of sequential programs for efficient execution on parallel computers involves a number of analyses and restructurings of the input. Some of these analyses are based on computing array sections, a compact description of a range of array elements. Array sections describe the set of array elements that are either read or written by program statements. These sections can be compactly represented using shape descriptors such as regular sections, simple sections, or generalized convex regions. However, binary operations such as Union performed on these representations do not satisfy a straightforward closure property, e.g., if the operands to Union are convex, the result may be nonconvex. Approximations are resorted to in order to satisfy this closure property. These approximations introduce imprecision in the analyses and, furthermore, the imprecisions resulting from successive operations have a cumulative effect. Delayed merging is a technique suggested and used in some of the existing analyses to minimize the effects of approximation. However, this technique does not guarantee an exact solution in a general setting. This article presents a generalized technique to precisely compute Union which can overcome these imprecisions.

Typographic layout and first impressions: testing how changes in text layout influence reader's judgments of documents

This study explores how the typographic layout of information influences readers' impressions of magazine contents pages. Thirteen descriptors were used in a paired comparison procedure that assessed whether participants' rhetorical impressions of a set of six controlled documents change in relation to variations in layout. The combinations of layout attributes tested were derived from the structural attributes associated with three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate, and low) described in a previous study (see Moys, 2014). The content and the range of stylistic attributes applied to the test material were controlled in order to focus on layout attributes. Triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative data indicates that, even within the experimental confines of limited stylistic differentiation, the layout attributes associated with patterns of high, moderate, and low typographic differentiation do influence readers' rhetorical judgments. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of considering inter-relationships between clusters of typographic attributes rather than testing isolated variables.

Uniqueness of signature for simple curves

We propose a topological approach to the problem of determining a curve from its iterated integrals. In particular, we prove that a family of terms in the signature series of a two dimensional closed curve with finite p-variation, 1≤p<2, are in fact moments of its winding number. This relation allows us to prove that the signature series of a class of simple non-smooth curves uniquely determine the curves. This implies that outside a Chordal SLEκ null set, where 0<κ≤4, the signature series of curves uniquely determine the curves. Our calculations also enable us to express the Fourier transform of the n-point functions of SLE curves in terms of the expected signature of SLE curves. Although the techniques used in this article are deterministic, the results provide a platform for studying SLE curves through the signatures of their sample paths.

Intraspecific trait variation is correlated with establishment success of alien mammals

Many studies have aimed to identify common predictors of successful introductions of alien species, but the search has had limited success, particularly for animals. Past research focused primarily on mean trait values, even though genetic and phenotypic variation has been shown to play a role in establishment success in plants and some animals (mostly invertebrates). Using a global database describing 511 introduction events representing 97 mammalian species, we show that intraspecific variation in morphological traits is associated with establishment success, even when controlling for the positive effect of propagule pressure. In particular, greater establishment success is associated with more variation in adult body size but, surprisingly, less variation in neonate body size, potentially reflecting distinct trade-offs and constraints that influence population dynamics differently. We find no mean trait descriptors associated with establishment success, although species occupying wider native distribution ranges (which likely have larger niches) are more successful. Our results emphasize the importance of explicitly considering intraspecific variation to predict establishment success in animal species and generally to understand population dynamics. This understanding might improve management of alien species and increase the success of intentional releases, for example, for biocontrol or reintroductions.

Cheaters in mutualism networks

Mutualism-network studies assume that all interacting species are mutualistic partners and consider that all links are of one kind. However, the influence of different types of links, such as cheating links, on network organization remains unexplored. We studied two flower-visitation networks (Malpighiaceae and Bignoniaceae and their flower visitors), and divide the types of link into cheaters (i.e. robbers and thieves of flower rewards) and effective pollinators. We investigated if there were topological differences among networks with and without cheaters, especially with respect to nestedness and modularity. The Malpighiaceae network was nested, but not modular, and it was dominated by pollinators and had much fewer cheater species than Bignoniaceae network (28% versus 75%). The Bignoniaceae network was mainly a plant-cheater network, being modular because of the presence of pollen robbers and showing no nestedness. In the Malpighiaceae network, removal of cheaters had no major consequences for topology. In contrast, removal of cheaters broke down the modularity of the Bignoniaceae network. As cheaters are ubiquitous in all mutualisms, the results presented here show that they have a strong impact upon network topology.

What makes a species central in a cleaning mutualism network?

Mutualisms often form networks of interacting species, characterized by the existence of a central core of species that potentially drive the ecology and the evolution of the whole community. Centrality measures allow quantification of how central or peripheral a species is within a network, thus informing about the role of each species in network organization, dynamics, and stability. In the present study we addressed the question whether the structural position of species in the network (i.e. their topological importance) relates to their ecological traits. We studied interactions between cleaner and client reef fishes to identify central and peripheral species within a mutualistic network, and investigated five ecological correlates. We used three measures to estimate the level of centrality of a species for distinct structural patterns, such as the number of interactions and the structural proximity to other species. Through the use of a principal component analysis (PCA) we observed that the centrality measures were highly correlated (92.5%) in the studied network, which indicates that the same species plays a similar role for the different structural patterns. Three cleaner and ten client species had positive values of centrality, which suggests that these species are modulating ecological and evolutionary dynamics within the network. Higher centralities were related to higher abundances and feeding habits for client fishes, but not for cleaners. The high correlation between centrality measures in the present study is likely related to the nested structure of the cleaning network. The cleaner species` set, by having central species that are not necessarily the most abundant ones, bears potentially more vulnerable points for network cohesiveness. Additionally, the present study generalizes previous findings for plant-animal mutualisms, as it shows that the structure of marine mutualisms is also related to a complex interplay between abundance and niche-related features.

Forest structure in a mosaic of rainforest sites: The effect of fragmentation and recovery after clear cut

A variety of human-induced disturbances such as forest fragmentation and recovery after deforestation for pasture or agricultural activities have resulted in a complex landscape mosaic in the Una region of northeastern Brazil. Using a set of vegetation descriptors, we investigated the main structural changes observed in forest categories that comprise the major components of the regional landscape and searched for potential key descriptors that could be used to discriminate among different forest categories. We assessed the forest structure of five habitat categories defined as (I) interiors and (2) edges of large fragments of old-growth forest (>1000 ha), (3) interiors and (4) edges of small forest fragments (<100 ha), and (5) early secondary forests. Forest descriptors used here were: frequency of herbaceous lianas and woody climbers, number of standing dead trees, number of fallen trunks, litter depth, number of pioneer plants (early secondary and shade-intolerant species), vertical foliage stratification profile and distribution Of trees in different diameter classes. Edges and interiors of forest fragments were significantly different only in the number of standing dead trees. Secondary forests and edges of fragments showed differences in litter depth, fallen trunks and number of pioneer trees, and secondary forests were significantly different from fragment interiors in the number of standing dead trees and the number of pioneer trees. Horizontal and vertical structure evaluated via ordination analysis showed that fragment interiors, compared to secondary forests, were characterized by a greater number of medium (25-35 cm) and large (35-50 cm) trees and smaller numbers of thin trees (5-10 cm). There was great heterogeneity at the edges of small and large fragments, as these sites were distributed along almost the entire gradient. Most interiors of large and small fragments presented higher values of foliage densities at higher strata ( 15-20 m and at 20-25 m height), and lower densities at 1-5 m. All secondary forests and some fragment edge sites showed an opposite tendency. A discriminant function highlighted differences among forest categories, with transects of large fragment interiors and secondary forests representing two extremes along a disturbance gradient determined by foliage structure (densities at 15-20 m and 20-25 m), with the edges of both large and small fragments and the interiors of small fragments scattered across the gradient. The major underlying processes determining patterns of forest disturbance in the study region are discussed, highlighting the importance of forest fragments, independently of its size, as forests recovery after clear cut show a greatly distinct structure, with profound implications on fauna movements. (C) 2009 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

The nested assembly of individual-resource networks

P>1. Much of the current understanding of ecological systems is based on theory that does not explicitly take into account individual variation within natural populations. However, individuals may show substantial variation in resource use. This variation in turn may be translated into topological properties of networks that depict interactions among individuals and the food resources they consume (individual-resource networks). 2. Different models derived from optimal diet theory (ODT) predict highly distinct patterns of trophic interactions at the individual level that should translate into distinct network topologies. As a consequence, individual-resource networks can be useful tools in revealing the incidence of different patterns of resource use by individuals and suggesting their mechanistic basis. 3. In the present study, using data from several dietary studies, we assembled individual-resource networks of 10 vertebrate species, previously reported to show interindividual diet variation, and used a network-based approach to investigate their structure. 4. We found significant nestedness, but no modularity, in all empirical networks, indicating that (i) these populations are composed of both opportunistic and selective individuals and (ii) the diets of the latter are ordered as predictable subsets of the diets of the more opportunistic individuals. 5. Nested patterns are a common feature of species networks, and our results extend its generality to trophic interactions at the individual level. This pattern is consistent with a recently proposed ODT model, in which individuals show similar rank preferences but differ in their acceptance rate for alternative resources. Our findings therefore suggest a common mechanism underlying interindividual variation in resource use in disparate taxa.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Passive Restoration in Biodiversity Hotspots: Consequences for an Atlantic Rainforest Lizard Taxocene

Long-term conservation in biodiversity hotspots depends on the recovery of communities in secondary forest fragments. In most cases, however, recovery strategies for these areas are based only on passive restoration. It is therefore necessary to determine the efficiency of such strategies. In this study, we assess the efficiency of passive restoration on a 567-ha 28-yr-old fragment of Atlantic Rainforest in Northeastern Brazil. We measured richness, composition, abundance and biomass of a lizard taxocene and also vegetation structure and availability of several microhabitat descriptors in 18 plots of this secondary forest. We then compared them with measures in 29 plots from two neighboring reference sites. Species richness, abundance, biomass and microhabitat descriptors availability inside the secondary fragment did not differ from reference sites. However, composition and vegetation structure showed small differences. Some forest specialist lizards, which should be a focus of conservation efforts in fragmented landscapes of the Atlantic Rainforest, were not found in the fragment and data indicate that this was not due to sampling or a lack of suitable habitat or microhabitat. In the presence of preserved source sites, passive restoration may be a cheap and effective way to recover lizard taxocenes of the Atlantic Rainforest. Some of the species may need to be re-introduced to accelerate the full recovery of original composition of lizard taxocenes in secondary Atlantic Rainforests.

The analytic torsion of a cone over an odd dimensional manifold

We study the analytic torsion of a cone over an orientable odd dimensional compact connected Riemannian manifold W. We prove that the logarithm of the analytic torsion of the cone decomposes as the sum of the logarithm of the root of the analytic torsion of the boundary of the cone, plus a topological term, plus a further term that is a rational linear combination of local Riemannian invariants of the boundary. We show that this last term coincides with the anomaly boundary term appearing in the Cheeger Muller theorem [3, 2] for a manifold with boundary, according to Bruning and Ma (2006) [5]. We also prove Poincare duality for the analytic torsion of a cone. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ROOT PROBLEM FOR CONVENIENT MAPS

In this paper we study when the minimal number of roots of the so-called convenient maps horn two-dimensional CW complexes into closed surfaces is zero We present several necessary and sufficient conditions for such a map to be root free Among these conditions we have the existence of specific fittings for the homomorphism induced by the map on the fundamental groups, existence of the so-called mutation of a specific homomorphism also induced by the map, and existence of particular solutions of specific systems of equations on free groups over specific subgroups

ON NONSYMMETRIC THEOREMS FOR (H, G)-COINCIDENCES

Let X be a compact Hausdorff space, phi: X -> S(n) a continuous map into the n-sphere S(n) that induces a nonzero homomorphism phi*: H(n)(S(n); Z(p)) -> H(n)(X; Z(p)), Y a k-dimensional CW-complex and f: X -> a continuous map. Let G a finite group which acts freely on S`. Suppose that H subset of G is a normal cyclic subgroup of a prime order. In this paper, we define and we estimate the cohomological dimension of the set A(phi)(f, H, G) of (H, G)-coincidence points of f relative to phi.