980 resultados para real option theory


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This paper presents the development of a solar photovoltaic (PV) model based on PSCAD/EMTDC - Power System Computer Aided Design – including a mathematical model study. An additional algorithm has been implemented in MATLAB software in order to calculate several parameters required by the PSCAD developed model. All the simulation study has been performed in PSCAD/MATLAB software simulation tool. A real data base concerning irradiance, cell temperature and PV power generation was used in order to support the evaluation of the implemented PV model.

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

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Recent changes in power systems mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments has created new challenges to operation and planning. In this context, Virtual Power Players (VPP) can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Demand response market implementation has been done in recent years. Several implementation models have been considered. An important characteristic of a demand response program is the trigger criterion. A program for which the event trigger depends on the Locational Marginal Price (LMP) used by the New England Independent System operator (ISO-NE) inspired the present paper. This paper proposes a methodology to support VPP demand response programs management. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation. Results concerning the evaluation of the impact of using demand response events are also presented.

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In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

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In this paper is presented a Game Theory based methodology to allocate transmission costs, considering cooperation and competition between producers. As original contribution, it finds the degree of participation on the additional costs according to the demand behavior. A comparative study was carried out between the obtained results using Nucleolus balance and Shapley Value, with other techniques such as Averages Allocation method and the Generalized Generation Distribution Factors method (GGDF). As example, a six nodes network was used for the simulations. The results demonstrate the ability to find adequate solutions on open access environment to the networks.

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This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimization techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Players (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper details some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study based on real data.

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The idea behind creating this special issue on real world applications of intelligent tutoring systems was to bring together in a single publication some of the most important examples of success in the use of ITS technology. This will serve as a reference to all researchers working in the area. It will also be an important resource for the industry, showing the maturity of ITS technology and creating an atmosphere for funding new ITS projects. Simultaneously, it will be valuable to academic groups, motivating students for new ideas of ITS and promoting new academic research work in the area.

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Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints (MPCC) finds applica- tion in many fields. As the complementarity constraints fail the standard Linear In- dependence Constraint Qualification (LICQ) or the Mangasarian-Fromovitz constraint qualification (MFCQ), at any feasible point, the nonlinear programming theory may not be directly applied to MPCC. However, the MPCC can be reformulated as NLP problem and solved by nonlinear programming techniques. One of them, the Inexact Restoration (IR) approach, performs two independent phases in each iteration - the feasibility and the optimality phases. This work presents two versions of an IR algorithm to solve MPCC. In the feasibility phase two strategies were implemented, depending on the constraints features. One gives more importance to the complementarity constraints, while the other considers the priority of equality and inequality constraints neglecting the complementarity ones. The optimality phase uses the same approach for both algorithm versions. The algorithms were implemented in MATLAB and the test problems are from MACMPEC collection.

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Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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The population growth of a Staphylococcus aureus culture, an active colloidal system of spherical cells, was followed by rheological measurements, under steady-state and oscillatory shear flows. We observed a rich viscoelastic behavior as a consequence of the bacteria activity, namely, of their multiplication and density-dependent aggregation properties. In the early stages of growth (lag and exponential phases), the viscosity increases by about a factor of 20, presenting several drops and full recoveries. This allows us to evoke the existence of a percolation phenomenon. Remarkably, as the bacteria reach their late phase of development, in which the population stabilizes, the viscosity returns close to its initial value. Most probably, this is caused by a change in the bacteria physiological activity and in particular, by the decrease of their adhesion properties. The viscous and elastic moduli exhibit power-law behaviors compatible with the "soft glassy materials" model, whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.030701.

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Dissertação Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica no perfil de Manutenção e Produção

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Os Projectos de Investimento desempenham um importante papel no crescimento económico-social dos países, proporcionando emprego e desenvolvimento tecnológico. Na óptica dos projectos inovadores, concretamente no sector das energias renováveis, acarretam elevados investimentos, numa base temporal de longo prazo. Nestes casos as decisões estratégicas assumem um papel determinante, assim, o principal objectivo desta dissertação é a utilização das Opções Reais como métrica de avaliação dos projectos de investimento. A análise e avaliação dos projectos implica em si incerteza nas previsões, desta forma, as Opções Reais minimizam o risco associado à incerteza através da inclusão da flexibilidade no processo de avaliação. A primeira parte da dissertação consiste na contextualização energética mundial e nacional, ao nível da energia primária e das energias renováveis, com incidência na energia eólica. A segunda consiste na introdução teórica dos projectos de investimento e dos conceitos inerentes às Opções Financeiras e às Opções Reais. Por último, apresenta-se um caso de estudo de construção de três parques eólicos e as consequentes decisões de investimento concluindo que os modelos de avaliação das Opções Reais proporcionam alternativas e interdependência em investimentos futuros.

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Mestrado em Engenharia Química

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[...]. Para exemplificar o conceito de limite, vamos considerar um círculo com 15 centímetros de raio. Matematicamente, um círculo é o conjunto dos pontos do plano cuja distância ao centro é menor ou igual que um dado valor, ao qual chamamos raio. [...].