New efforts at biological control of Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

New efforts at biological control of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes. Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

Datorstödda studier i hälso- och socialvård : MuPSiNet-projektet

The aim of the study was to explore why the MuPSiNet project - a computer and network supported learning environment for the field of health care and social work - did not develop as expected. To grasp the problem some hypotheses were formulated. The hypotheses regarded the teachers' skills in and attitudes towards computing and their attitudes towards constructivist study methods. An online survey containing 48 items was performed. The survey targeted all the teachers within the field of health care and social work in the country, and it produced 461 responses that were analysed against the hypotheses. The reliability of the variables was tested using the Cronbach alpha coefficient and t-tests. Poor basic computing skills among the teachers combined with a vulnerable technical solution, and inadequate project management combined with lack of administrative models for transforming economic resources into manpower were the factors that turned out to play a decisive role in the project. Other important findings were that the teachers had rather poor skills and knowledge in computing, computer safety and computer supported instruction, and that these skills were significantly poorer among female teachers who were in majority in the sample. The fraction of teachers who were familiar with software for electronic patient records (EPR) was low. The attitudes towards constructivist teaching methods were positive, and further education seemed to utterly increase the teachers' readiness to use alternative teaching methods. The most important conclusions were the following: In order to integrate EPR software as a natural tool in teaching planning and documenting health care, it is crucial that the teachers have sufficient basic skills in computing and that more teachers have personal experience of using EPR software. In order for computer supported teaching to become accepted it is necessary to arrange with extensive further education for the teachers presently working, and for that further education to succeed it should be backed up locally among other things by sufficient support in matters concerning computer supported teaching. The attitudes towards computing showed significant gender differences. Based on the findings it is suggested that basic skills in computing should also include an awareness of data safety in relation to work in different kinds of computer networks, and that projects of this kind should be built up around a proper project organisation with sufficient resources. Suggestions concerning curricular development and further education are also presented. Conclusions concerning the research method were that reminders have a better effect, and that respondents tend to answer open-ended questions more verbosely in electronically distributed online surveys compared to traditional surveys. A method of utilising randomized passwords to guarantee respondent anonymity while maintaining sample control is presented. Keywords: computer-assisted learning, computer-assisted instruction, health care, social work, vocational education, computerized patient record, online survey

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Management of plant invasions mediated by frugivore interactions

1. Some of the most damaging invasive plants are dispersed by frugivores and this is an area of emerging importance in weed management. It highlights the need for practical information on how frugivores affect weed population dynamics and spread, how frugivore populations are affected by weeds and what management recommendations are available. 2. Fruit traits influence frugivore choice. Fruit size, the presence of an inedible peel, defensive chemistry, crop size and phenology may all be useful traits for consideration in screening and eradication programmes. By considering the effect of these traits on the probability, quality and quantity of seed dispersal, it may be possible to rank invasive species by their desirability to frugivores. Fruit traits can also be manipulated with biocontrol agents. 3. Functional groups of frugivores can be assembled according to broad species groupings, and further refined according to size, gape size, pre- and post-ingestion processing techniques and movement patterns, to predict dispersal and establishment patterns for plant introductions. 4. Landscape fragmentation can increase frugivore dispersal of invasives, as many invasive plants and dispersers readily use disturbed matrix environments and fragment edges. Dispersal to particular landscape features, such as perches and edges, can be manipulated to function as seed sinks if control measures are concentrated in these areas. 5. Where invasive plants comprise part of the diet of native frugivores, there may be a conservation conflict between control of the invasive and maintaining populations of the native frugivore, especially where other threats such as habitat destruction have reduced populations of native fruit species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Development of functional groups of frugivore-dispersed invasive plants and dispersers will enable us to develop predictions for novel dispersal interactions at both population and community scales. Increasingly sophisticated mechanistic seed dispersal models combined with spatially explicit simulations show much promise for providing weed managers with the information they need to develop strategies for surveying, eradicating and managing plant invasions. Possible conservation conflicts mean that understanding the nature of the invasive plant-frugivore interaction is essential for determining appropriate management.

A systematic approach to biological control agent exploration and prioritisation for prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica)

Agent selection for prickly acacia has been largely dictated by logistics and host specificity. Given that detailed ecological information is available on this species in Australia, we propose that it is possible to select agents based on agent efficacy and desired impact on prickly acacia demography. We propose to use the 'plant genotype' and 'climatic' similarities as filters to identify areas for future agent exploration; and plant response to herbivory and field host range as 'predictive' filters for agent prioritisation. Adopting such a systematic method that incorporates knowledge from plant population ecology and plant-herbivore interactions makes agent selection decisions explicit and allow more rigorous evaluations of agent performance and better understanding of success and failure of agents in weed biological control.

Yhdessä ajattelu ja osallistuminen : Interventiotutkimus yhteistoiminnallisen oppimisen kehittymisestä kahdessa alakoulun pienryhmässä

Participation and social modes of thinking - An intervention study on the development of collaborative learning in two primary school small groups This study explores the thinking together -intervention programme in three primary school classes. The object of the intervention was to teach pupils to use exploratory talk in small group collaboratory learning. Exploratory talk is a type of talk in which joint reasoning is made explicit. Research has shown that exploratory talk can improve mathematics and science learning, argumentative skills and competence in reasoning tests. The object of this study was to investigate the theory of social modes of thinking which the intervention program is based on. I tried to find out how the thinking together -intervention programme suits the Finnish context. Therefore my study is part of an international research project of interventions that have been implemented for example in Great-Britain and in Mexico. One essential drawback in former research made on thinking together -approach is that the nature of participation has not been studied properly. In this study I also examine how the nature of participation develops in small groups. In addition to that I aim to develope a theoretical framework which includes both the perspectives of the social modes of thinking and the nature of participation. The perspective of this study is sociocultural. The research material consists of video recordings of collaborative learning tasks of two small groups. In groups there were pupils of age groups 9 - 11. I study the nature of participation using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative methods include for example IR-analysis method and counting of turns at talk and words. I also use qualitative content analysis to analyze both the nature of participation and social modes of thinking. As a result of my study I found out that the interaction of the other group was leadership based and in the other group the interaction was without leadership relations. In both groups the participation was quantitatively more symmetrical in the end of the intervention. In the group in which the interaction was leadership based the participation of the pupils was more symmetrical. Exploratory talk was found more in the group without leadership relations, but in both groups the amount of exploratory talk was increased during the intervention. Leadership based interaction was further divided into interaction of alienating and inclusive leadership according to how symmetrical the participation was in the dialogue. Exploratory talk was found only when the leadership was inclusive or the interaction was without leadership relations. The main result of the study was that the exploratory talk was further divided into four subcategories according to the nature of participation. In open and inclusive exploratory talk all group members participated initiatively and their initiatives were responded by others. In closed and uneven exploratory talk some group members couldn't participate properly. Therefore it cannot be said that exploratory talk guarantees symmetrical participation. The nature of participation must be investigated separately.

Refining the process of agent selection through understanding plant demography and plant response to herbivory

Understanding plant demography and plant response to herbivory is critical to the selection of effective weed biological control agents. We adopt the metaphor of 'filters' to suggest how agent prioritisation may be improved to narrow our choices down to those likely to be most effective in achieving the desired weed management outcome. Models can serve to capture our level of knowledge (or ignorance) about our study system and we illustrate how one type of modelling approach (matrix models) may be useful in identifying the weak link in a plant life cycle by using a hypothetical and an actual weed example (Parkinsonia aculeata). Once the vulnerable stage has been identified we propose that studying plant response to herbivory (simulated and/or actual) can help identify the guilds of herbivores to which a plant is most likely to succumb. Taking only potentially effective agents through the filter of host specificity may improve the chances of releasing safe and effective agents. The methods we outline may not always lead us definitively to the successful agent(s), but such an empirical, data-driven approach will make the basis for agent selection explicit and serve as testable hypotheses once agents are released.

Spatial subdivision among assemblages of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson (Pisces: Scombridae) across northern Australia: implications for fisheries management

Aim: This study investigated the use of stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of narrow-barred Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, as indicators of population structure across Australia. Location: Samples were collected from 25 locations extending from the lower west coast of Western Australia (30°), across northern Australian waters, and to the east coast of Australia (18°) covering a coastline length of approximately 9500 km, including samples from Indonesia. Methods: The stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of S. commerson were analysed using standard mass spectrometric techniques. The isotope ratios across northern Australian subregions were subjected to an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to define subregions. Isotope ratios within each of the subregions were compared to assess population structure across Australia. Results: Cluster analysis separated samples into four subregions: central Western Australia, north Western Australia, northern Australia and the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastern Australia. Isotope signatures for fish from a number of sampling sites from across Australia and Indonesia were significantly different, indicating population separation. No significant differences were found in otolith isotope ratios between sampling times (no temporal variation). Main conclusions: Significant differences in the isotopic signatures of S. commerson demonstrate that there is unlikely to be any substantial movement of fish among these spatially discrete adult assemblages. The lack of temporal variation among otolith isotope ratios indicates that S. commerson populations do not undergo longshore spatial shifts in distribution during their life history. The temporal persistence of spatially explicit stable isotopic signatures indicates that, at these spatial scales, the population units sampled comprise functionally distinct management units or separate ‘stocks’ for many of the purposes of fisheries management. The spatial subdivision evident among populations of S. commerson across northern and western Australia indicates that it may be advantageous to consider S. commerson population dynamics and fisheries management from a metapopulation perspective (at least at the regional level).

Discovering behavioural interfaces for overloaded web services

The growth of APIs and Web services on the Internet, especially through larger enterprise systems increasingly being leveraged for Cloud and software-as-a-service opportuni- ties, poses challenges to improving the efficiency of integration with these services. Interfaces of enterprise systems are typically larger, more complex and overloaded, with single operation having multiple data entities and parameter sets, supporting varying requests, and reflecting versioning across different system releases, compared to fine-grained operations of contemporary interfaces. We propose a technique to support the refactoring of service interfaces by deriving business entities and their relationships. In this paper, we focus on the behavioural aspects of service interfaces, aiming to discover the sequential dependencies of operations (otherwise known as protocol extraction) based on the entities and relationships derived. Specifically, we propose heuristics according to these relationships, and in turn, deriving permissible orders in which operations are invoked. As a result of this, service operations can be refactored on business entity CRUD lines, with explicit behavioural protocols as part of an interface definition. This supports flexible service discovery, composition and integration. A prototypical implementation and analysis of existing Web services, including those of commercial logistic systems (Fedex), are used to validate the algorithms proposed through the paper.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Efficient implementations of a pseudodynamical stochastic filtering strategy for static elastography

A computationally efficient pseudodynamical filtering setup is established for elasticity imaging (i.e., reconstruction of shear modulus distribution) in soft-tissue organs given statically recorded and partially measured displacement data. Unlike a regularized quasi-Newton method (QNM) that needs inversion of ill-conditioned matrices, the authors explore pseudodynamic extended and ensemble Kalman filters (PD-EKF and PD-EnKF) that use a parsimonious representation of states and bypass explicit regularization by recursion over pseudotime. Numerical experiments with QNM and the two filters suggest that the PD-EnKF is the most robust performer as it exhibits no sensitivity to process noise covariance and yields good reconstruction even with small ensemble sizes.

The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Frailty: A key indicator to minimize inappropriate medication in older people

Older populations are more likely to have multiple co-morbid diseases that require multiple treatments, which make them a large consumer of medications. As a person grows older, their ability to tolerate medications becomes less due to age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics often heading along a path that leads to frailty. Frail older persons often have multiple co-morbidities with signs of impairment in activities of daily living. Prescribing drugs for these vulnerable individuals is difficult and is a potentially unsafe activity. Inappropriate prescribing in older population can be detected using explicit (criterion-based) or implicit (judgment-based) criteria. Unfortunately, most current therapeutic guidelines are applicable only to healthy older adults and cannot be generalized to frail patients. These discrepancies should be addressed either by developing new criteria or by refining the existing tools for frail older people. The first and foremost step is to identify the frail patient in clinical practice by applying clinically validated tools. Once the frail patient has been identified, there is a need for specific measures or criteria to assess appropriateness of therapy that consider such factors as quality of life, functional status and remaining life expectancy and thus modified goals of care.

The Influence of Bilayer Composition on the Gel to Liquid Crystalline Transition

We report molecular dynamics simulations of bilayers using a united atom model with explicit solvent molecules. The bilayer consists of the single tail cationic surfactant behenyl trimethyl ammonium chloride (BTMAC) with stearyl alcohol (SA) as the cosurfactant. We study the gel to liquid crystalline transitions in the bilayer by varying the amount of water at fixed BTMAC to SA ratio as well as by varying the BTMAC to SA ratio at fixed water content. The bilayer is found to exist in the tilted, Lβ′ phase at low temperatures, and for the compositions investigated in this study, the Lβ′ to Lα melting transition occurred in the temperature range 330−338 K. For the highest BTMAC to SA composition (2:3 molar ratio), a diffuse headgroup−water interface is observed at lower temperatures, and an increase in the d-spacing occurs prior to the melting transition. This pretransition swelling is accompanied by a sharpening in the water density variation across the headgroup region of the bilayer. Signatures of this swelling effect which can be observed in the alkane density distributions, area per headgroup, and membrane thickness are attributed to the hydrophobic effect. At a fixed bilayer composition, the transition temperature (>338 K) from the Lβ′ to Lα transition obtained for the high water content bilayer (80 wt %) is similar to that obtained with low water content (54.3 wt %), confirming that the melting transition at these water contents is dominated by chain melting.

Out-of-plane deformation and failure of masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement

Out-of-plane behaviour of mortared and mortarless masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement, including unreinforced masonry as a base case is examined using a layered shell element based explicit finite element modelling method. Wall systems containing internal reinforcement, external surface reinforcement and intermittently laced reinforced concrete members and unreinforced masonry panels are considered. Masonry is modelled as a layer with macroscopic orthotropic properties; external reinforcing render, grout and reinforcing bars are modelled as distinct layers of the shell element. Predictions from the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. The model is used to examine the effectiveness of two retrofitting schemes for an unreinforced masonry wall.