Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Synthesis of biodegradable polyhydroxyalcanoate copolymer from a renewable source by alternate feeding

Polyhydroxyalcanoates copolymers with 3-hydroxybutirate (3HB) and 3-hydroxyvalerate (3HV) co-monomers, P3(HB-co-x%HV), were produced in fed-batch culture by Ralstonia eutropha DSM428 using fructose as a single carbon source in the first step and adding propionic acid in the second step by alternating feeding. Polymer yield was 0.18 g/L with a content of 24 mol% of the 3HV fraction determined by H-1 NMR. NMR measurements indicated that the polymer obtained is isotactic. The copolymer attained 35% of crystallinity according to X-ray diffraction measurements, and two (020) planes were observed. Thermal behavior presented melting temperature at 154 degrees C and the crystallization temperature was 65 degrees C. A glass transition temperature was observed at -10 degrees C. Average molecular weight measured by GPC was 4.9 x 10(5) Dalton. Isothermal radial growth rates of spherulites of P3(HB-co-24%HV) were studied. All experimental facts and the analysis of the sequence distribution of diads and triads of 3HB and 3HV units led to the conclusion that it is not a completely statistical random copolymer once it contains different types of segments. POLYM.

Disruption of the 2-methylcitric acid cycle and evaluation of poly-3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate biosynthesis suggest alternate catabolic pathways of propionate in Burkholderia sacchari

The objective of the present work was to evaluate the relevance of the 2-methylcitric acid cycle (2MCC) to the catabolism of propionate in Burkholderia sacchari. Two B. sacchari mutants unable to grow on propionate were obtained: one disrupted in acnM, and the other in acnM and prpC deleted. An operative 2MCC significantly reduces the bacterial ability to incorporate 3-hydroxyvalerate (3HV) into a biodegradable copolyester accumulated from carbohydrates plus propionate. The efficiency of the mutants in converting propionate to 3HV units (Y(3HV/prp)) increased from 0.09 g.g(-1) to 0.81-0.96 g.g(-1), indicating that acnM and prpC are both essential for growth on propionate. None of the mutations resulted in achievement of the maximum theoretical Y(3HV/prp) (1.35 g.g(-1)). When increasing concentrations of propionate were supplied, decreasing values of Y(3HV/prp) were observed. The results obtained corroborate the hypothesis of the presence of other propionate catabolic pathways in B. sacchari. The 2MCC would be the more operative pathway, but a second pathway, which remains to be elucidated, would assume more importance under propionate concentrations of 1 g.L(-1) or higher. The efficiency in converting propionate to 3HV units can be improved by decreasing the propionate concentrations, owing to the role of the 2MCC.

The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A game theoretical approach to the evolution of structured communication codes

Structured meaning-signal mappings, i.e., mappings that preserve neighborhood relationships by associating similar signals with similar meanings, are advantageous in an environment where signals are corrupted by noise and sub-optimal meaning inferences are rewarded as well. The evolution of these mappings, however, cannot be explained within a traditional language evolutionary game scenario in which individuals meet randomly because the evolutionary dynamics is trapped in local maxima that do not reflect the structure of the meaning and signal spaces. Here we use a simple game theoretical model to show analytically that when individuals adopting the same communication code meet more frequently than individuals using different codes-a result of the spatial organization of the population-then advantageous linguistic innovations can spread and take over the population. In addition, we report results of simulations in which an individual can communicate only with its K nearest neighbors and show that the probability that the lineage of a mutant that uses a more efficient communication code becomes fixed decreases exponentially with increasing K. These findings support the mother tongue hypothesis that human language evolved as a communication system used among kin, especially between mothers and offspring.

Game-based Learning (Interactive Demo)

What does the lesson “Finding Citations,” the game “Trivial Pursuit,” and the mechanic “Bluffing” all have in common? In this bootcamp brainstorm facilitated by a CUNY professor, attendees are broken up into design teams whose job it is to enhance a traditional lesson with the mechanics of popular board games in only 20 minutes. Whether you have to teach the rules of citation or the rules of interviewing, there is usually a game plan that can help. This game teaches you how to integrate educational games into your classroom, while providing a fun introduction to the principles of game-based learning.

Interactive Lightning Session: Game-based Learning in Higher Education

Games are known for leveraging enthusiasm, engagement, energy, knowledge, and passion on gamers; areas that are fundamentally important in higher education. Our panelists will share their perspectives on how Higher Education can take advantage of the potential of game based learning to create a more engaging student learning experien

Textual Differences in Game Reviews Written by Men and Women

The aim of this essay is to examine the differences in language use between the genders in game reviews, to find whether there are differences in the use of the language depending on gender. Both sexist language and technical aspects are examined, the technical aspects of writing have been chosen from previous research about gendered differences in writing. The reviews are randomly chosen but the games are selected. There is an equal amount of games with male and female main characters, and the number of reviews is chosen according to the number of reviews written by females, as there are fewer of them, and thus easier to find a matching number of reviews written by males rather than vice versa. The reviews are then examined to find sexist language and differences. This essay finds that there is sexist language in the writing of both genders, such as marked language, but only when the main character of the game is female. Both genders tend to focus on the appearance of female characters and the characteristics of male characters, but there is no known previous research about male and female game characters to compare these results to. However, the technical differences remain consistent with previous research on the same subject, such as female reviewers using more pronouns than male reviewers, and male reviewers using fewer verbs than female reviewers.

Game Audio in Audio Games : Towards a Theory on the Roles and Functions of Sound in Audio Games

For the past few decades, researchers have increased our understanding of how sound functions within various audio–visual media formats. With a different focus in mind, this study aims to identify the roles and functions of sound in relation to the game form Audio Games, in order to explore the potential of sound when acting as an autonomous narrative form. Because this is still a relatively unexplored research field, the main purpose of this study is to help establish a theoretical ground and stimulate further research within the field of audio games. By adopting an interdisciplinary approach to the topic, this research relies on theoretical studies, examinations of audio games and contact with the audio game community. In order to reveal the roles of sound, the gathered data is analyzed according to both a contextual and a functional perspective. The research shows that a distinction between the terms ‘function’ and ‘role’ is important when analyzing sound in digital games. The analysis therefore results in the identification of two analytical levels that help define the functions and roles of an entity within a social context, named the Functional and the Interfunctional levels. In addition to successfully identifying three main roles of sound within audio games—each describing the relationship between sound and the entities game system, player and virtual environment—many other issues are also addressed. Consequently, and in accordance with its purpose, this study provides a broad foundation for further research of sound in both audio games and video games.

Euroland - The effect of Euro on international trade : Are there winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''?

This paper examines whether European Monetary Union (EMU) countries share fairly the effect of their membership in Eurozone (EZ) or whether are winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''. By using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) Member States for the period 2001-2012 in the context of a gravity model, we focus on estimating the Euro’s effect on bilateral trade and we detect whether this effect differs across the Member States of EZ. Two estimation methods are applied: Pooled OLS estimator and Fixed Effects estimator. The empirical results come to the conclusion that the individual country effects differ and are statistically significant, indicating that EMU’s effect on trade differs across the Member States of EZ. The overall effect of the Euro is statistically insignificant, regardless the estimation method, demonstrating that the common European currency may have no effect on bilateral trade.