The effects of uncertainty about the timing of deals on consumer behavior

I examine the effects of uncertainty about the timing of de aIs (i.e. temporary price cuts or sales) on consumer behavior in a dynamic inventory model of consumer choice. I derive implications for purchase behavior and test them empirically, using two years of scanner data for soft drinks. I fmd that loyal consumers' decisions, both about the allocation of their purchases over time and the quantity to be purchased in a particular deal, are affected by the uncertainty about the timing of the deal for the product. Loyal consumers buy a higher fraction of their overall purchases during de ais as the uncertainty decreases. This effect increases with an increase in the product' s share of a given consumer' s purchase in the same category or if the consumer stockpiles (i.e., is a shopper). During a particular deal, loyal shoppers increase the quantity they purchase the more time that has passed since the previous de aI, and the higher the uncertainty about the deals' timing. For the non-Ioyal consumers these effects are not significant. These results hold for products that are frequently purchased, like soft-drinks and yogurt, but do not hold for less frequentIy purchased products, such as laundry detergents. The fmdings suggest that manufacturers and retailers should incorporate the effects of deals' timing on consumers' purchase' decisions when deriving optimal pricing strategies.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

A notion of subgame perfect nash equilibrium under knightian uncertainty

We define a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium under Knightian uncertainty for two players, by means of a recursive backward induction procedure. We prove an extension of the Zermelo-von Neumann-Kuhn Theorem for games of perfect information, i. e., that the recursive procedure generates a Nash equilibrium under uncertainty (Dow and Werlang(1994)) of the whole game. We apply the notion for two well known games: the chain store and the centipede. On the one hand, we show that subgame perfection under Knightian uncertainty explains the chain store paradox in a one shot version. On the other hand, we show that subgame perfection under uncertainty does not account for the leaving behavior observed in the centipede game. This is in contrast to Dow, Orioli and Werlang(1996) where we explain by means of Nash equilibria under uncertainty (but not subgame perfect) the experiments of McKelvey and Palfrey(1992). Finally, we show that there may be nontrivial subgame perfect equilibria under uncertainty in more complex extensive form games, as in the case of the finitely repeated prisoner's dilemma, which accounts for cooperation in early stages of the game .

Uma análise crítica do papel da jurisprudência no planejamento tributário: tensões principiológicas e desafios à uniformidade

Como em países de tradição civil law, o sistema jurídico brasileiro consagra a lei como fonte primária e garantia do Estado de Direito. A hermenêutica, como teoria científica da arte de interpretar, impõe-se em nosso sistema como canal destinado a suprir as vaguezas e imprecisões da lei e resolver-lhe os conflitos normativos, pelos métodos e critérios tradicionais. A jurisprudência, entendida como um conjunto uniforme e constante de decisões sobre assuntos similares, tem um papel secundário, e as ideias de Direito e Justiça, nesse contexto, muito se aproximam da lei. Com a promulgação da Constituição democrática de 1988, e o renascimento do direito constitucional brasileiro, cujo marco filosófico é o pós-positivismo, o constituinte atribuiu normatividade aos princípios constitucionais. Mas não sistematizou as relações dos princípios entre si, e destes com regras igualmente positivadas na Constituição, fazendo emergir certas tensões principiológicas e também entre princípios e regras constitucionais. Superado o modelo positivista, que equiparava o Direito à lei, ganharam grande importância as discussões relacionadas à neutralidade do aplicador da norma, e os voluntarismos e personalismos praticados sob ideais subjetivos de justiça. Nesse novo contexto, a jurisprudência assume papel protagonista, e aproxima o modelo brasileiro das jurisdições do common law. Entretanto, a vinculação apenas extraordinária dos julgadores aos precedentes, que deita raízes no regime de livre convencimento, induz falta de uniformidade e de coerência dos julgados, acerca de questões jurídicas similares, comprometendo a estabilidade, gerando incerteza e insegurança jurídica, e por via de consequência, relevantes empecilhos ao planejamento empresarial e aos investimentos que dele dependem, o que tende a gerar prejuízos ao ambiente de negócios do País. Essa perspectiva tem o objetivo de demonstrar que o Direito, enquanto sistema harmônico de normas, requer limites claros, e que esses limites, em nosso sistema constitucional, significam precisamente a imposição de métodos que assegurem à sociedade pronunciamentos uniformes e coerentes por parte do aplicador da norma, mediante observância de precedentes adequadamente sopesados em direção à harmonia, segurança jurídica e previsibilidade.

O planejamento de negócios envolvendo tributos indiretos e os seus critérios especiais de resolução

A dissertação busca identificar a existência de critérios especiais de resolução para planejamentos tributários que envolvam tributos indiretos.

Ernst Bloch: esperança e educação em tempos de niilismo

This work aims give evidence of that The hope principle, the philosophical system devised by the German philosopher Ernst Bloch, in which hope assumes an ontological character, offers cognitive support that allows overcoming the void imposed by nihilism today, especially in the field of education. But while it offers cognitive support, it also presents a need that is fulfilled by an educational proposal based on a not-yet-conscious being. An education based on hope has four essential pillars: learning to know, learning to do, learning to be, learning to live together and, most of all, immerging into in the seas of uncertainty. In times when school is a promoter of certainties at the expense of uncertainties, education must not forsake the notion of the unpredictable and immeasurable, nor the need to find ways to enable better understanding of aspect related to the not-yet-be. The employed theoretical and methodological elements in this work paint a corpus through an interactive process in which layers of additional texts are subjected to analysis

A função social do contrato como concretização de direitos fundamentais nas relações privadas

This dissertation deals with the social function of the contract, based on constitutional principles, especially those relating to fundamental rights. The social function of the contract (general clause) is described in the Civil Code so intentionally generic, no precise criteria to define it. Because of the fluidity of this principle, it is justified its closer study, seeking to assess its various meanings and looking away from the legal uncertainty that an unlimited conceptual vagueness can cause. The social function of the contract arises from a transformation experienced in private law from the inflows received from the Constitutional Law, the result of an evolutionary process by which it became the state structure, leaving the foundations of the classical liberal state and moving toward a vision guided by existential human values that give the keynote of the Welfare State. Arose, then the concern about the effectiveness of fundamental rights in relations between individuals, which is studied from the inapplicability of fundamental rights in private relations (U.S. doctrine of State action), passing to the analysis of the Theory of indirect horizontal effect of fundamental rights (of German creation and majority acceptance), reaching the right horizontal efficacy Theory of fundamental rights, prevailing Brazilian doctrine and jurisprudence. It has also been investigated the foundations of the social contract, pointing out that, apart from the provisions of the constitutional legislation, that base the principle on screen, there have also been noticed foundations in the Federal Constitution, in devices like the art. 1, III, the dignity of the human person is the north of the relationship between contractors. Also art. 3rd, I CF/88 bases the vision of social covenants, equipping it for the implementation of social solidarity, as one of the fundamental objectives of the Republic. Still on art. 170 of the Constitution it is seen as a locus of reasoning in the social function of the contract, the maintenance of the economic order. It is also studied the internal and external aspects of the social function of the contract, being the first part the one that considers the requirement of respect for contractual loyalty, through the objective good faith, as a result of the dignity of the hirer may not be offended by the other through the contract. On the other hand, the external facet of the social function of the contract, in line with the constitutional mandate of solidarity, indicates the need for contractors to respect the rights of society, namely the diffuse, collective and individual third party. In this external appearance, it is also pointed the notion of external credit protection, addressing the duty of society to respect the contract. There has been shown some notions of the social contract in comparative law. Then, there has been investigated the content of principle study, through their interrelationships with other provisions of private and constitutional law, namely equality, objective good faith, private autonomy and dignity of the human person. We study the application of the social contract in contractual networks as well as the guidance of conservation of contracts, especially those denominated long-term captive contracts, considering the theory of substantive due performance, concluding with an analysis of the social contract in code of Consumer Protection

Ofício, Estresse e Resiliência: desafios do Professor Universitário.

The objective of this study was to investigate the elements that contribute to the state of stress which often affects those who embrace the university teaching career, and also to learn whatever strategies professors use to cope with stressing situations in order to develop resilience and a sound exercise of their profession. To the very nature of university teaching belong a variety of attributions, demands and challenges which, together, may contribute to the development of stress. The epistemological principles which guided this research were those of Complex Thinking, which facilitate a deeper comprehension of the human and social phenomena as viewed through the lens of complexity principles: the dialogical principle, the organizational recursivity principle and the hologramatical principle. Fully acknowledging the many difficulties brought about by any attempt that would try to explain human phenomena based only on one theoretical reference, we have elected multi-referentiality as the support for this study, thus being able to dialogue with a variety of authors about the same phenomenon. This was a qualitative research in which questionnaires and interviews were used as instruments for the empirical work. The data has been articulated into categories and subcategories, allowing for a thematic analysis. Participants of the study were seventeen professors from two different colleges in the city of Natal, state of Rio Grande do Norte. Bad working conditions, demands from the institution, student s lack of commitment, long working hours, low salaries, lack of incentives to university teachers, uncertainty concerning timetable and difficulties in proper time administration are the variables that contribute to the stress of professors. Although this is a problem that affects the group as a whole, strategies to cope with it are individually sought and vary from trying to find different leisure options, opening one s heart to colleagues or relatives, individual planning, prayer, rational facing of the situation, to simply giving in to exhaustion. The study has proposed institutional as well as personal actions that may foster a development among professors which takes into account a resilience development in a collective perspective. Also, it shows some articulations that are already under way so that professors may be attended to.

O princípio da precaução e a saúde no trabalho

O princípio da precaução (PP) é uma diretriz em saúde que vem ganhando relevo nos últimos 20 anos. Seu propósito é orientar medidas nas situações em que o conhecimento científico está ainda incompleto, denotando a incerteza. As condições de economia de mercado estimulam o uso de produtos e processos inovadores, dependentes do desenvolvimento científico e das novas descobertas em curso. Suas implicações para a saúde nem sempre estão inteiramente avaliadas, expondo a população trabalhadora às incertezas. O exame da literatura mostra que o uso do PP, embora sob consenso dos órgãos reguladores em diferentes países, ainda é objeto de intenso debate na comunidade científica. em coerência com os propósitos básicos, a proteção do meio ambiente conta com milhares de citações do seu emprego, em contraste com as poucas recomendações de uso para as exposições ocupacionais. Entre estas, o PP vem sendo entendido como pouco adequado ao âmbito dos especialistas e mais indicado à proteção de populações vulneráveis. Investigações históricas mostram que a noção de precaução foi quase sempre usada em sentido inverso, fazendo-se uso da dúvida para conter as possíveis melhorias de proteção no trabalho. Conclui-se que o uso do PP depende do pressuposto da incerteza científica, caracterizada pela noção de risco, em detrimento do determinismo da causa, condição ainda não superada nas relações de trabalho.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of the LC50 of selamectin (active principle of the antiparasitic Revolution (R), Pfizer) applied on engorged female of the tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus (Latreille, 1806) (Acari: Ixodidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Weak Maximum Principle for Optimal Control Problems with Nonsmooth Mixed Constraints

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)