An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of big data for official statistics in the Caribbean: Challenges and opportunities

The data revolution for sustainable development has triggered interest in the use of big data for official statistics such that theUnited Nations Economic and Social Council considers it to be almost an obligation for statistical organizations to explore big data. Big data has been promoted as a more timely and cheaper alternative to traditional sources of official data, and one that offers great potential for monitoring the sustainable development goals. However, privacy concerns, technology and capacity remain significant obstacles to the use of big data. This study makes a case for incorporating big data in official statitics in the Caribbean by highlight the opportunities that big data provides for the subregion, while suggesting ways to manage the challenges. It serves as a starting point for further discussions on the many facets of big data and provides an initial platform upon which a Caribbean big data strategy could be built.

Microstructural, physical, and fluid dynamic assessment of spinel-based and phosphate-bonded investments for dental applications

This work reports the experimental evaluation of physical and gas permeation parameters of four spinel-based investments developed with or without inclusion of sacrificial fillers. Data were compared with those of three commercial formulations. Airflow tests were conducted from 27 to 546°C, and permeability coefficients were fitted from Forchheimer's equation. Skeletal densities found for spinel- (ρs = 3635 ± 165 kg/m3) and phosphate-bonded (ρs = 2686 ± 11 kg/m3) samples were in agreement with the literature. The developed investments were more porous and less permeable than commercial brands, and the differences were ascribed to the different pore morphologies and hydraulic pore sizes of ceramic matrices. The inclusion of both fibers and microbeads resulted in increases of total porosity (42.6–56.6%) and of Darcian permeability coefficient k1 (0.76 × 10−14–7.03 × 10−14 m2). Air permeation was hindered by increasing flow temperatures, and the effect was related to the influence of gas viscosity on ΔP, in accordance with Darcy's law. Casting quality with molten titanium (CP Ti) was directly proportional to the permeability level of the spinel-based investments. However, the high reactivity of the silica-based investment RP and the formation of α-case during casting hindered the benefits of the highest permeability level of this commercial brand.

Assessment of antimicrobial activity of cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum) essential oil combined with EDTA and polyethylene glycol in yogurt

Essential oils (EOs) are technological options that may be employed in natural foods due to their antimicrobial activities. However, restrictions exist when high EOs concentrations are required which, in their turn, affect sensory qualities. Technological alternatives, such as combination of EOs with chelating and dispersing agents, have been proposed in the literature. Current research determined the antimicrobial activity of cinnamon EO against microbial spoilage in yogurt when added at the highest acceptable sensory EO concentration, alone or associated with ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) and/or polyethylene glycol. Cinnamon EO's chemical analysis was performed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Sensory analysis was conducted to define the highest acceptable sensory concentration of cinnamon EO in yogurt, stipulated at 0.04% cinnamon EO. Antimicrobial activity in yogurt was then evaluated for aerobic mesophiles, psychrotrophilic microorganisms, yeasts and molds counts. Treatments comprised (1) control, (2) 0.04% EO, (3) 0.04% EO + 0.01% EDTA, (4) 0.04% EO + 0.02% polyethylene glycol; (5) 0.04% EO + 0.01% EDTA + 0.2% polyethylene glycol, in triplicates. Concentration 0.04% of cinnamon EO, alone or associated with EDTA and/or polyethylene glycol, failed to show any antimicrobial activity against aerobic mesophiles, yeasts and molds.

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Broilers'toes asymmetry and walking ability assessment

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

How to Better Prepare for Assessment and Create a More Technologically Advanced Classroom

In this action research study of my classroom of 8th grade mathematics, I investigated how to better prepare these students for quizzes and how technology can be used in the classroom. I discovered that there are many different ways to challenge students and help them prepare for assessments. There are also many ways to use technology in the classroom if one has the opportunities to use some of the tools, such as Power Point and Algebra Tiles. As a result of this research, I plan to increase the scores on state standards while also allowing the students to enjoy technology during this process.

Multitemporal assessment of the geomorphologic evolution of the Restinga of Marambaia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Restinga of Marambaia is an emerged sand bar located between the Sepetiba Bay and the South Atlantic Ocean, on the south-east coast of Brazil. The objective of this study was to observe the geomorphologic evolution of the coastal zone of the Restinga of Marambaia using multitemporal satellite images acquired by multisensors from 1975 to 2004. The images were digitally segmented by a region growth algorithm and submitted to an unsupervised classification procedure (ISOSEG) followed by a raster edit based on visual interpretation. The image time-series showed a general trend of decrease in the total sand bar area with values varying from 80.61km(2) in 1975 to 78.15km(2) in 2004. The total area calculation based on the 1975 and 1978 Landsat MSS data was shown to be super-estimated in relation to the Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+, and CBERS-2 CCD data. These differences can also be associated to the relatively poorer spatial resolution of the MSS data, nominally 79m, against the 20m of the CCD data and 30m of the TM and ETM+ data. For the estimates of the width in the central portion of the sand bar the variation was from 158m (1975) to 100m (2004). The formation of a spit in the northern region of the study area was visually observed. The area of the spit was estimated, with values varying from 0.82km(2) (1975) to 0.55km(2) (2004).

Assessment of Stent Strut Endothelialization in Iliac Arteries of Rabbits

Background: Fast post-implantation stent endothelialization is desirable for theoretically reducing the possibility of stent thrombosis. Objective: To evaluate the extent of sirolimus-eluting stent strut endothelialization (delivered from the luminal and abluminal aspects or abluminal aspect only) in the iliac arteries of rabbits. Methods: The iliac arteries of 10 rabbits were implanted with four sirolimus-eluting stents in the luminal and abluminal aspects, three sirolimus-eluting stents in the abluminal aspect, six polymer-coated stents, and four uncoated stents. After four weeks, the rabbits were euthanized and scanning electron microscopy was performed to quantify the area of exposed stent strut as well as the percentage of endothelialization. Results: The area (mean +/- SD) (mm(2)) of exposed uncoated stent struts, polymer-coated stents, sirulimus-eluting stent in the abluminal and luminal aspects and sirolimus-eluting stent in the abluminal aspect was 0.12 +/- 0.08, 0.09 +/- 0.12, 0.60 +/- 0.67 and 0.05 +/- 0.04, respectively (p = 0.120). The percentage of endothelialization (mean +/- SD) (%) of uncoated stents, polymer-coated stents, sirolimus-eluting stents in the luminal and abluminal aspects and sirolimus-eluting stents in the abluminal aspect was 99 +/- 01, 99 +/- 0. 97 +/- 03 and 99 +/- 0, respectively (p = 0.133). Conclusion: After four weeks of implantation in the iliac arteries of rabbits, both the sirolimus-eluting stents in the luminal plus abluminal aspects and those in the abluminal aspect only showed stent strut endothelialization rates similar to those of the other types of non-drug eluting stents. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(6):1123-1128)

Water Quality Assessment in Piracicamirim Creek Upstream and Downstream a Sugar and Ethanol Industry Through Toxicity Tests With Cladocerans

An environmental impact study was conducted to determine the Piracicamirim's creek water quality in order to assess the influence of effluents from a sugar industry in this water body. For this, toxicity tests were performed with a water sample upstream and downstream the industry using the microcrustaceans Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii as test organisms, as well as physical and chemical analysis of water. Results showed that physical and chemical parameters did not change during the sampling period, except for the dissolved oxygen. No toxicity was observed for D. magna and reproduction of C. dubia and C. silvestrii in both sampling points. Thus, the industry was not negatively impacting the quality of this water body.

Microbiological quality assessment of sand and water from three selected beaches of South Coast, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This study aimed to assess the sanitary quality of water, and wet and dry sand from three beaches located in the South Coast region of Sao Paulo State, Brazil, selected taking into account the frequency of tourists and the water quality (good, fair and poor). Thirty-six water samples each of wet and dry sand and seawater were collected monthly over a period of one year and analyzed for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB: thermotolerant coliforms, Escherichia coli, and enterococci), presumptive Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans and dermatophytes. The results revealed FIB concentrations more elevated in dry sand followed by wet sand and water. P. aeruginosa and presumptive S. aureus were detected with a similar frequency in water and sand samples, but maximum concentrations and geometric means were higher in dry sand. C. albicans was detected only in water samples whereas the dermatophyte Microsporum sp. was isolated exclusively from dry and wet sand samples. This evaluation showed also that the environment had a significant influence on P. aeruginosa but not on presumptive S. aureus concentrations. According to threshold values proposed in the literature for E. coli and enterococci dry sand densities, none of the beaches would be considered of sufficient quality for recreational activities.

Parasitological risk assessment from wastewater reuse for disposal in soil in developing countries

The purpose of this work is to analyze the parasitological risks of treated wastewater reuse from a stabilization pond in the city of Piracicaba, in the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil), and the level of treatment required to protect public health. Samples were taken from raw and treated wastewater in stabilization ponds and submitted to a parasitological, microbiological and physicochemical analysis. The study revealed on treated wastewater the presence of Ascaris sp. and Entamoeba coli with an average density of 1 cysts L-1 and 6 eggs L-1, respectively. For Ascaris, the annual risks of infection due to the accidental ingestion of wastewater irrigation were 7.5 x 10(-2) in 208 days and 8.7 x 10(-2) in 240 days. For Total Coliforms and Escherichia coli in treated wastewater, the average density was 1.0 x 10(5) MPN/100 ml and 2.7 x 10(4) MPN/100 ml respectively, representing 99% and 94% removal efficiency, respectively. For BOD, COD, TS and TSS removal efficiency was 69, 80, 50 and 71%, respectively. The removal efficiency for nitrogen; ammonia nitrogen and total phosphate was 24, 19 and 68%, respectively. The average density of helminths eggs in treated wastewater is higher compared to the density of the limit value of <= 1 egg L-1 and tolerable risk is above the level recommended by the World Health Organization. Multiple barriers are necessary for the reduction of organic matter, chemical contaminants and parasites from treated wastewater. Standards for the sanitary control of treated wastewater to be reused in agricultural irrigation areas should be compiled for developing countries in order to minimize public health risks.

Multi-criteria analysis in the strategic environmental assessment of the sugar and alcohol sector

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the sugar and alcohol sector guides a territorial and sectoral planning that benefits most of the local society and supports this economic activity in all its stages. In this way, the present work aims to determine an index of aggregation of the indicators generated in the baseline of the SEA process, called Index of Sustainability of Expansion of the Sugar and Alcohol Sector (IScana). For this, it was used the normalization of the indicators of each city by the fuzzy logic and attribution of weights by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Then, the IScana values had been spatialized in the region of 'Grande Dourados'-Mato Grosso do Sul State. The northern portion concentrated the highest values of IScana, 0.48 and 0.55, referring to the cities of Nova Alvorada do Sul and Rio Brilhante, while, in the central portion, the city of Dourados presented the lowest value, 0.10. The selection of the set of indicators forming the IScana, and their relative importance, was satisfactory for the application of fuzzy logic and AHP techniques. The IScana index supplies objective information regarding the diagnosis of the region for the application of SEA.

Assessment of SNPs for linkage mapping in Eucalyptus: construction of a consensus SNP/microsatellite map from two unrelated pedigrees

Financial support. Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology (CNPq Grant 577047-2008-6), FAP-DF NEXTREE Grant 193.000.570/2009 and EMBRAPA Macroprogram 2 project grant 02.07.01.004.

Water quality assessment in piracicamirim creek upstream and downstream a sugar and ethanol industry through toxicity tests with cladocerans

An environmental impact study was conducted to determine the Piracicamirim's creek water quality in order to assess the influence of effluents from a sugar industry in this water body. For this, toxicity tests were performed with a water sample upstream and downstream the industry using the microcrustaceans Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia and Ceriodaphnia silvestrii as test organisms, as well as physical and chemical analysis of water. Results showed that physical and chemical parameters did not change during the sampling period, except for the dissolved oxygen. No toxicity was observed for D. magna and reproduction of C. dubia and C. silvestrii in both sampling points. Thus, the industry was not negatively impacting the quality of this water body.