Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Process mining for clinical processes: A comparative analysis of four Australian hospitals

Business process analysis and process mining, particularly within the health care domain, remain under-utilised. Applied research that employs such techniques to routinely collected, health care data enables stakeholders to empirically investigate care as it is delivered by different health providers. However, cross-organisational mining and the comparative analysis of processes present a set of unique challenges in terms of ensuring population and activity comparability, visualising the mined models and interpreting the results. Without addressing these issues, health providers will find it difficult to use process mining insights, and the potential benefits of evidence-based process improvement within health will remain unrealised. In this paper, we present a brief introduction on the nature of health care processes; a review of the process mining in health literature; and a case study conducted to explore and learn how health care data, and cross-organisational comparisons with process mining techniques may be approached. The case study applies process mining techniques to administrative and clinical data for patients who present with chest pain symptoms at one of four public hospitals in South Australia. We demonstrate an approach that provides detailed insights into clinical (quality of patient health) and fiscal (hospital budget) pressures in health care practice. We conclude by discussing the key lessons learned from our experience in conducting business process analysis and process mining based on the data from four different hospitals.

Waves for change : the role of the South Tarawa-based women's interests program in the decolonisation process of the Gilbert Islands

This thesis has created a space for women in the history of the decolonisation of the Gilbert Islands. It traces the historical development of the national women's interests program in the Republic of Kiribati (formerly of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands Colony (GEIC)) as it was implemented through a network of women's clubs during the 1960s and 1970s. This thesis has provided the first history and interpretation of the Indigenous women's interests movement as it impacted the Gilbert Islands. It offers a narrative of the movement in terms of three overlapping waves of women leaders, based on an analysis of fieldwork, archival research and interviews conducted on South Tarawa, Kiribati.

Reported consumption of takeaway food and its contribution to socioeconomic inequalities in body mass index

The aim of this study was to examine whether takeaway food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and body mass index (BMI). A postal-survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged between 25 and 64 years in Brisbane, Australia during 2009 (response rate 63.7%, N=903). BMI was calculated using self-reported weight and height. Participants reported usual takeaway food consumption, and these takeaway items were categorised into "healthy" and "less healthy" choices. Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education, household income, and occupation. The mean BMI was 27.1kg/m(2) for men and 25.7kg/m(2) for women. Among men, none of the socioeconomic measures were associated with BMI. In contrast, women with diploma/vocational education (β=2.12) and high school only (β=2.60), and those who were white-collar (β=1.55) and blue-collar employees (β=2.83) had significantly greater BMI compared with their more advantaged counterparts. However, household income was not associated with BMI. Among women, the consumption of "less healthy" takeaway food mediated BMI differences between the least and most educated, and between those employed in blue collar occupations and their higher status counterparts. Decreasing the consumption of "less healthy" takeaway options may reduce socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity among women but not men.

An efficient proactive route maintenance process for reliable data transmissions in sensor networks

For industrial wireless sensor networks, maintaining the routing path for a high packet delivery ratio is one of the key objectives in network operations. It is important to both provide the high data delivery rate at the sink node and guarantee a timely delivery of the data packet at the sink node. Most proactive routing protocols for sensor networks are based on simple periodic updates to distribute the routing information. A faulty link causes packet loss and retransmission at the source until periodic route update packets are issued and the link has been identified as broken. We propose a new proactive route maintenance process where periodic update is backed-up with a secondary layer of local updates repeating with shorter periods for timely discovery of broken links. Proposed route maintenance scheme improves reliability of the network by decreasing the packet loss due to delayed identification of broken links. We show by simulation that proposed mechanism behaves better than the existing popular routing protocols (AODV, AOMDV and DSDV) in terms of end-to-end delay, routing overhead, packet reception ratio.

Professionalizing Business Process Management : towards a Body of Knowledge for BPM

Business Process Management (BPM) is rapidly evolving as an established discipline. There are a number of efforts underway to formalize the various aspects of BPM practice; creating a formal Body of Knowledge (BoK) is one such effort. Bodies of knowledge are artifacts that have a proven track record for accelerating the professionalization of various disciplines. In order for this to succeed in BPM, it is vital to involve the broader business process community and derive a BoK that has essential characteristics that addresses the discipline’s needs. We argue for the necessity of a comprehensive BoK for the BPM domain, and present a core list of essential features to consider when developing a BoK based on preliminary empirical evidence. The paper identifies and critiques existing Bodies of Knowledge related to BPM, and firmly calls for an effort to develop a more accurate and sustainable BoK for BPM. An approach for this effort is presented with preliminary outcomes.

Prioritizing process improvement : an example from the Australian financial services sector

Process improvement has become a number one business priority, and more and more project requests are raised in organizations, seeking approval and resources for process-related projects. Realistically, the total of the requested funds exceeds the allocated budget, the number of projects is higher than the available bandwidth, and only some of these (very often only few) can be supported and most never see any light. Relevant resources are scarce, and correct decisions must be made to make sure that those projects that are of best value are implemented. How can decision makers make the right decision on the following: Which project(s) are to be approved and when to commence work on them? Which projects are most aligned with corporate strategy? How can the project’s value to the business be calculated and explained? How can these decisions be made in a fair, justifiable manner that brings the best results to the company and its stakeholders? This chapter describes a business value scoring (BVS) model that was built, tested, and implemented by a leading financial institution in Australia to address these very questions. The chapter discusses the background and motivations for such an initiative and describes the tool in detail. All components and underlying concepts are explained, together with details on its application. This tool has been successfully implemented in the case organization. The chapter provides practical guidelines for organizations that wish to adopt this approach.

Vascular remodeling in the internal mammary artery graft and association with in situ endothelin-1 and receptor expression

BACKGROUND: The vasoconstricting peptide endothelin-1 (ET-1) has been associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) growth stimulation, and intimal thickening. ET-1 binds 2 receptor subtypes, endothelin A and B, and the ETA receptor mediates vasoconstriction and VSMC growth. This study aims to quantitatively assess arterial remodeling variables and compare them with changes in ET-1, ETA, and ETB expression in the internal mammary artery (IMA). METHODS AND RESULTS: Specimens from 55 coronary artery disease (CAD) patients (45 men, 10 women; mean age 65 years) and 14 control IMA specimens (from 7 men and 7 women; mean age 45 years) were collected. IMA cross sections were assessed by histochemical and immunohistochemical staining methods to quantify the levels of medionecrosis, fibrosis, VSMC growth, ET-1, ETA, ETB, and macrophage infiltration. The percentage area of medionecrosis in the patients was almost double that in the controls (31.85+/-14.52% versus 17.10+/-9.96%, P=0.0006). Total and type 1 collagen was significantly increased compared with controls (65.8+/-18.3% versus 33.7+/-13.7%, P=0.07, and 14.2+/-10.0% versus 4.8+/-2.8%, P=0.01, respectively). Despite ACE and/or statin therapy, ET-1 expression and cell cycling were significantly elevated in the patient IMAs relative to the controls (46.27+/-18.46 versus 8.56+/-8.42, P=0.0001, and 37.29+/-12.88 versus 11.06+/-8.18, P=0.0001, respectively). ETA and ETB staining was elevated in the patient vessels (46.88+/-11.52% versus 18.58+/-7.65%, P=0.0001, and 42.98+/-7.08% versus 34.73+/-5.20%, P=0.0067, respectively). A mild presence of macrophages was noted in all sections. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated distribution of collagen indicative of fibrosis coupled with increased cell cycling and high levels of ET-1 and ETA expression in the absence of chronic inflammation suggests altered IMA VSMC regulation is fundamental to the remodeling process.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale : psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.

Major issues in business process management : an expert perspective

Study Approach The results presented in this report are part of a larger global study on the major issues in BPM. Only one part of the larger study is reported here, viz. interviews with BPM experts. Interviews of BPM tool vendors together with focus group studies involving user organizations were conducted in parallel and set the groundwork for the identification of BPM issues on a global scale. Through this multi-method approach, we identify four distinct sets of outcomes. First, as is the focus of this report, we identify the BPM issues as perceived by BPM experts. Second, the research design allows us to gain insight into the opinions of organizations deploying BPM solutions. Third, an understanding of organizations’ misconceptions of BPM technologies, as confronted by BPM tool vendors, is obtained. Last, we seek to gain an understanding of BPM issues on a global scale, together with knowledge of matters of concern. This final outcome is aimed to produce an industry-driven research agenda that will inform practitioners and, in particular, the research community worldwide on issues and challenges that are prevalent or emerging in BPM and related areas...

What are the secrets of successful process modelling? Insights from an Australian case study

L'intérêt suscité par la ré-ingénierie des processus et les technologies de l'information révèle l'émergence du paradigme du management par les processus. Bien que beaucoup d'études aient été publiées sur des outils et techniques alternatives de modélisation de processus, peu d'attention a été portée à l'évaluation post-hoc des activités de modélisation de processus ou à l'établissement de directives sur la façon de conduire efficacement une modélisation de processus. La présente étude a pour objectif de combler ce manque. Nous présentons les résultats d'une étude de cas détaillée, conduite dans une organisation leader australienne dans le but de construire un modèle de réussite de la modélisation des processus.

Expertise in Business Process Management

As organizations attempt to become more business process-oriented, existing role descriptions are revised and entire new business process-related roles emerge. A lot of attention is often being paid to the technological aspect of Business Process Management (BPM), but relatively little work has been done concerning the people factor of BPM and the specification of BPM expertise in particular. This study tries to close this gap by proposing a comprehensive BPM expertise model, which consolidates existing theories and related work. This model describes the key attributes characterizing “BPM expertise” and outlines their structure, dynamics, and interrelationships. Understanding BPM expertise is a predecessor to being able to develop and apply it effectively. This is the cornerstone of human capital and talent management in BPM.

Business process mining success

Process mining has developed into a popular research discipline and nowadays its associated techniques are widely applied in practice. What is currently ill-understood is how the success of a process mining project can be measured and what the antecedent factors of process mining success are. We consider an improved, grounded understanding of these aspects of value to better manage the effectiveness and efficiency of process mining projects in practice. As such, we advance a model, tailored to the characteristics of process mining projects, which identifies and relates success factors and measures. We draw inspiration from the literature from related fields for the construction of a theoretical, a priori model. That model has been validated and re-specified on the basis of a multiple case study, which involved four industrial process mining projects. The unique contribution of this paper is that it presents the first set of success factors and measures on the basis of an analysis of real process mining projects. The presented model can also serve as a basis for further extension and refinement using insights from additional analyses.

Comparing methods for modelling spreading cell fronts

Spreading cell fronts play an essential role in many physiological processes. Classically, models of this process are based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation; however, such continuum representations are not always suitable as they do not explicitly represent behaviour at the level of individual cells. Additionally, many models examine only the large time asymptotic behaviour, where a travelling wave front with a constant speed has been established. Many experiments, such as a scratch assay, never display this asymptotic behaviour, and in these cases the transient behaviour must be taken into account. We examine the transient and asymptotic behaviour of moving cell fronts using techniques that go beyond the continuum approximation via a volume-excluding birth-migration process on a regular one-dimensional lattice. We approximate the averaged discrete results using three methods: (i) mean-field, (ii) pair-wise, and (iii) one-hole approximations. We discuss the performace of these methods, in comparison to the averaged discrete results, for a range of parameter space, examining both the transient and asymptotic behaviours. The one-hole approximation, based on techniques from statistical physics, is not capable of predicting transient behaviour but provides excellent agreement with the asymptotic behaviour of the averaged discrete results, provided that cells are proliferating fast enough relative to their rate of migration. The mean-field and pair-wise approximations give indistinguishable asymptotic results, which agree with the averaged discrete results when cells are migrating much more rapidly than they are proliferating. The pair-wise approximation performs better in the transient region than does the mean-field, despite having the same asymptotic behaviour. Our results show that each approximation only works in specific situations, thus we must be careful to use a suitable approximation for a given system, otherwise inaccurate predictions could be made.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.