A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Coal dust exposures in the longwall mines of New South Wales, Australia: a respiratory risk assessment

This paper presents an analysis of personal respirable coal dust measurements recorded by the Joint Coal Board in the underground longwall mines of New South Wales from 1985 to 1999. A description of the longwall mining process is given. In the study, 11 829 measurements from 33 mines were analysed and the results given for each occupation, for seven occupational groups, for individual de-identified mines and for each year of study. The mean respirable coal dust concentration for all jobs was 1.51 mg/m(3) (SD 1.08 mg/m(3)). Only 6.9% of the measurements exceeded the Australian exposure standard of 3 mg/m(3). Published exposure-response relationships were used to predict the prevalence of progressive massive fibrosis and the mean loss of FEV1, after a working lifetime (40 years) of exposure to the mean observed concentration of 1.5 mg/m(3). Prevalences of 1.3 and 2.9% were predicted, based on data from the UK and the USA, respectively. The mean loss of FEV1 was estimated to be 73.7 ml.

The role of melanocortin-1 receptor polymorphism in skin cancer risk phenotypes

We have examined melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variant allele frequencies in the general population and in a collection of adolescent dizygotic and monozygotic twins to determine statistical associations of pigmentation phenotypes with increased skin cancer risk. This included hair and skin color, freckling, mole count and sun exposed skin reflectance. Nine variants were studied and designated as either strong R (OR = 63; 95% CI 32-140) or weak r (OR = 5; 95% CI 3-11) red hair alleles. Penetrance of each MC1R variant allele was consistent with an allelic model where effects were multiplicative for red hair but additive for skin reflectance. To assess the interaction of the brown eye color gene BEY2/OCA2 on the phenotypic effects of variant MC1R alleles we imputed OCA2 genotype in the twin collection. A modifying effect of OCA2 on MC1R variant alleles was seen on constitutive skin color, freckling and mole count. In order to study the individual effects of these variants on pigmentation phenotype we have established a series of human primary melanocyte strains genotyped for the MC1R receptor. These include strains which are MC1R wild-type consensus, variant heterozygotes, and homozygotes for strong R alleles Arg151Cys and Arg160Trp. Ultrastructural analysis demonstrated that only consensus strains contained stage III and IV melanosomes in their terminal dendrites whereas Arg151Cys and Arg160Trp homozygous strains contained only immature stage I and II melanosomes. Such genetic association studies combined with the functional analysis of MC1R variant alleles in melanocytic cells should provide a link in understanding the association between pigmentary phototypes and skin cancer risk.

Linkage and Association Analysis of Radiation Damage Repair Genes XRCC3 and XRCC5 with Nevus Density in Adolescent Twins

Previous studies have shown that a deficiency in DNA damage repair is associated with increased cancer risk, and exposure to UV radiation is a major risk factor for the development of malignant melanoma. High density of common nevi (moles) is a major risk factor for cutaneous melanoma. A nevus may result from a mutation in a single UV-exposed melanocyte which failed to repair DNA damage in one or more critical genes. XRCC3 and XRCC5 may have an effect on nevus count through their function as components of DNA repair processes that may be involved directly or indirectly in the repair of DNA damage due to UV radiation. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the frequency of flat or raised moles is associated with polymorphism at or near these DNA repair genes, and that certain alleles are associated with less efficient DNA repair, and greater nevus density. Twins were recruited from schools in south eastern Queensland and were examined close to their 12th birthday. Nurses examined each individual and counted all moles on the entire body surface. A 10cM genome scan of 274 families (642 individuals) was performed and microsatellite polymorphisms in XRCC3 and adjacent to XRCC5 were also typed. Linkage and association of nevus count to these loci were tested simultaneously using a structural-equation modeling approach implemented in MX. There is weak evidence for linkage of XRCC5 to a QTL influencing raised mole count, and also weak association. There is also weak evidence for association between flat mole count and XRCC3. No tests were significant after correction for testing multiple alleles, nor were any of the tests for total association significant. If variation in XRCC3 or XRCC5 influences UV sensitivity, and indirectly affects nevus density, then the effects are small.

Two-locus Linkage Analysis Applied to Putative Quantitative Trait Loci for Lipoprotein(a) Levels

Plasma levels of lipoprotein(a) _ Lp(a) _ are associated with cardiovascular risk (Danesh et al., 2000) and were long believed to be influenced by the LPA locus on chromosome 6q27 only. However, a recent report of Broeckel et al. (2002) suggested the presence of a second quantitative trait locus on chromosome 1 influencing Lp(a) levels. Using a two-locus model, we found no evidence for an additional Lp(a) locus on chromosome 1 in a linkage study among 483 dizygotic twin pairs.

Public investment and the risk premium for equity

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private-sector capital markets. However, the existence of an anomalous equity premium raises important issues in the evaluation of public-sector investment projects. These issues are explored below. We begin by formalizing the argument that an equity premium may arise from uninsurable systematic risk in labour income, and show that, other things being equal, increases in public ownership of equity will improve welfare, up to the point where the equity premium is eliminated. Finally, we consider policy implications and the optimal extent of public ownership.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Physical consequences of falls in the elderly: a literature review from 1995 to 2010

In the last decade, population ageing has been registered as a global phenomenon. A relation exists between falling and ageing, since falling frequency increases significantly with age. In fact, one in three older adult falls annually. Although ageing is generically associated with decrease and degeneration of psychological and physical functions, it is still not common for the correct identification of risk factors to lead to a clinical prognosis of the elder being in risk of falling. Therefore, the goal of this review article is to identify, categorise and analyse typical ageing and fall factors mentioned in the literature as well as to quantify the number of times they were referenced. The research considered hundreds of publications, but analysis was then restricted to the 87 most pertinent articles written in English and published in journals or scientific magazines between 1995 and 2010. We concluded that falls among older adults can be characterised by the following: anatomic characteristics and physiological consequences of ageing; the pathologies that induce falls, which can be neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and other diseases; causes and risk factors of falls that can be behavioural, biological, environmental or socio-economic; type of physical consequences of falls, including fractures, bruises, injuries or other physical consequences; and strategies to prevent, mitigate or rehabilitate, which can be of a physical, environmental or behavioural nature.

Physical consequences of falls in the elderly: a literature review from 1995 to 2010

In the last decade, population ageing has been registered as a global phenomenon. A relation exists between falling and ageing, since falling frequency increases significantly with age. In fact, one in three older adult falls annually. Although ageing is generically associated with decrease and degeneration of psychological and physical functions, it is still not common for the correct identification of risk factors to lead to a clinical prognosis of the elder being in risk of falling. Therefore, the goal of this review article is to identify, categorise and analyse typical ageing and fall factors mentioned in the literature as well as to quantify the number of times they were referenced. The research considered hundreds of publications, but analysis was then restricted to the 87 most pertinent articles written in English and published in journals or scientific magazines between 1995 and 2010. We concluded that falls among older adults can be characterised by the following: anatomic characteristics and physiological consequences of ageing; the pathologies that induce falls, which can be neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and other diseases; causes and risk factors of falls that can be behavioural, biological, environmental or socio-economic; type of physical consequences of falls, including fractures, bruises, injuries or other physical consequences; and strategies to prevent, mitigate or rehabilitate, which can be of a physical, environmental or behavioural nature.

Finite element analysis of pectus carinatum surgical correction via a minimally invasive approach

Pectus carinatum (PC) is a chest deformity caused by a disproportionate growth of the costal cartilages compared to the bony thoracic skeleton, pulling the sternum towards, which leads to its protrusion. There has been a growing interest on using the ‘reversed Nuss’ technique as minimally invasive procedure for PC surgical correction. A corrective bar is introduced between the skin and the thoracic cage and positioned on top of the sternum highest protrusion area for continuous pressure. Then, it is fixed to the ribs and kept implanted for about 2–3 years. The purpose of this work was to (a) assess the stresses distribution on the thoracic cage that arise from the procedure, and (b) investigate the impact of different positioning of the corrective bar along the sternum. The higher stresses were generated on the 4th, 5th and 6th ribs backend, supporting the hypothesis of pectus deformities correction-induced scoliosis. The different bar positioning originated different stresses on the ribs’ backend. The bar position that led to lower stresses generated on the ribs backend was the one that also led to the smallest sternum displacement. However, this may be preferred, as the risk of induced scoliosis is lowered.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Integration of risk management in occupational health and safety systems

Risk management can be considered as part of the Occupational Health and Safety System (OHS) of an organization and can be used to develop and implement the OHS policy and manage the associated risks. The success of the integration of risk management in OHS depends on both technical and human aspects. Thus, this paper presents and discusses the case of a company working in the area of solid waste treatment. This company was certified in 2009 with an Integrated Management Systems for Quality, Environment, Occupational Health and Safety. The evolution of accidents before and after the implementation of the integrated system was analysed and a questionnaire was used to capture the perceptions of the technicians on the risk management system. The analysis of the findings showed that the frequency of accidents increased since 2009 but the severity has been reduced. Several interrelated causes and consequences were analysed and discussed. Furthermore, the analysis of the opinions of the company’s technicians permitted to highlight some important aspects on the integration of risk management in the OHS system of the company. In line with this discussion some hypothesis have been formulated.

Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.