Non-classical error bounds in the central limit theorem

The classical central limit theorem states the uniform convergence of the distribution functions of the standardized sums of independent and identically distributed square integrable real-valued random variables to the standard normal distribution function. While first versions of the central limit theorem are already due to Moivre (1730) and Laplace (1812), a systematic study of this topic started at the beginning of the last century with the fundamental work of Lyapunov (1900, 1901). Meanwhile, extensions of the central limit theorem are available for a multitude of settings. This includes, e.g., Banach space valued random variables as well as substantial relaxations of the assumptions of independence and identical distributions. Furthermore, explicit error bounds are established and asymptotic expansions are employed to obtain better approximations. Classical error estimates like the famous bound of Berry and Esseen are stated in terms of absolute moments of the random summands and therefore do not reflect a potential closeness of the distributions of the single random summands to a normal distribution. Non-classical approaches take this issue into account by providing error estimates based on, e.g., pseudomoments. The latter field of investigation was initiated by work of Zolotarev in the 1960's and is still in its infancy compared to the development of the classical theory. For example, non-classical error bounds for asymptotic expansions seem not to be available up to now ...

A justiciabilidade do princípio geral da igualdade

O presente trabalho versa sobre a aplicação do princípio da igualdade pelo Poder Judiciário. Busca-se analisar de que maneira o mandamento constitucional de igualdade se concretiza no contexto jurídico-evolutivo enquanto princípio de norma de controle, que é justamente no âmbito em que ele é justificado pelo órgão jurisdicional. Saber até onde o juiz constitucional pode ir, conhecer seus limites de atuação, parcos ou largos, definíveis ou nubilosos, bem como o que vem contido nessa vertente do princípio que o distingue de um enunciado geral da igualdade, faz dessa dissertação um estudo interdisciplinar, mas que não deixa de ser voltado para o entendimento jurídico-normativo dessa função específica do princípio. A conhecida fórmula da proibição do arbítrio recebe uma leitura que não é inovadora, mas que almeja aferir a sua suficiência no exercício daquela função. Ou algo mais vem a ser exigido do princípio? Desde já uma resposta de tal envergadura não pode ser encontrada sem o retrato da jurisprudência respectiva. Por isso que, ao fim, e sem a pretensão de esgotamento, se optou por conhecer alguns dos julgados do Tribunal Constitucional português sobre o tema proposto. A indicação da disfunção ou não do perfil da referida Corte com a posição doutrinária só pode ser resultante da análise conclusiva sobre o tema. Fica o convite à leitura.

O depoimento da criança no processo civil e sua valoração probatória

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo examinar um dos meios de prova oral do processo civil, que é o depoimento da criança. Diante da existência de uma certa resistência quanto à utilização e validade deste meio de prova, foram destacados argumentos de direito probatório favoráveis à tomada do depoimento infantil, como o direito à prova no sistema da prova livre e na vertente do direito de ação e defesa, além da necessária comparação com o processo penal e o destaque aos princípios da proteção integral e do superior interesse da criança, os quais foram reforçados por outros de natureza médico-psicológica, que visaram a destacar a capacidade cognitiva da criança em recordar fatos e relatá-los. Após a desconstrução do modelo de exclusão prévia do depoimento infantil, a dissertação abordou os modelos de proteção para a audição judicial da criança, para se evitar a vitimização secundária da criança e exposição desnecessária às partes, advogados e juízes. Neste particular, foram revisados os modelos inglês do closed-circuit television - CCTV e argentino da Câmara de Gesell como paradigmas para vários outros países, inclusive o Brasil que tem incentivado o depoimento sem dano. Em derradeiro, foi examinada a valoração desse depoimento da criança, tomando-se por base a justificação lógico-racional da prova consubstanciada nos módulos de constatação, ocasião em que foi possível sublinhar que a utilização dos modelos e métodos de inquirição protetivos culminam em maior credibilidade ao depoimento da criança no processo civil e proporcionam a descoberta de falsidade voluntária ou não. Também no tópico da valoração da prova, o conteúdo do depoimento infantil vai trazer maior confiança quando conjugado com elementos intrínsecos, como a coerência do discurso e a ausência de contradições, e extrínsecos, realizado na modalidade protetiva.

Human capital in export-based internationalisation. "Managerial determinants and their influence upon the export behaviour of the firm: four case-studies of catalan exporting SMEs"

Export activities are a major source of economic growth and are considered important both at the national level and for individual businesses. Moreover, in the case of SMEs, they gain particular relevance, exporting being the most common foreign market entry mode for these firms. The decision maker’s role in the export activity is crucial, particularly in the case of SMEs. However, the extant literature on internationalization is characterized by a lack of consensus among scholars as to what constitutes the managerial factor in determining exporting. Therefore, this study focuses on the following issue: Which are the decision maker’s characteristics and perceptions that may influence the export behaviour of Catalan SMEs? To address this question a multiple case study method is applied across four Catalan exporting SMEs. The methodology chosen for analysing the empirical data is relying on the proposition testing approach while the investigation is conducted including both within and cross-case analysis. The findings show that high educational level, language skills, high risk tolerance, innovativeness as well as strongly perceived export stimuli as compared to low and easy to overcome export barriers positively influence the export involvement and development of SMEs. The study provides further insights into the research topic by jointly studying managerial characteristics and perceptions. Additionally, the majority of research on exporting topics has been carried out in the USA, so there is a clear need of investigation in the field in other countries, moreover in Spain where the exporting activities have not been as widely studied.

El Real Conservatorio de Artes (1824-1850): Orígenes y gestación de la ingeniería industrial moderna

El "Conservatorio de Artes" tuvo un origen Ilustrado, emulando a su homónimo parisino, pero nació durante el absolutismo (1824), tras un frustrado intento afrancesado (1810). Absorbió al "Gabinete de Máquinas" y tuvo como primer director a López de Peñalver. Supuso un puente entre la Ilustración y la Ingeniería Industrial decimonónica, sobre todo, a partir de la institucionalización del envío de pensionados a la "École Centrale des Arts et Manufactures" parisina, con cuyo retorno consigue transformarse en "Real Instituto Industrial" (1850). Aparte destaca su proyección social, tanto en su papel de oficina de patentes como en la promoción de exposiciones industriales.

Policy legitimation in sport: pivotal role of implementation

Paper presented at the 2000 seminar of the International Chair in Olympism. The main topic includes references to how the demand of public investment must be legitimized in terms of public benefits that can be vindicated. The author tries to review the values of this legitimation individually and closely.

Els criteris de legitimació en l'esport: el paper fonamental de la implementació

Ponència presentada al seminari de la Càtedra Internacional d'Olimpisme l'any 2000. El tema principal fa referència a com la demanda d'inversió pública ha d'estar legitimada en termes de beneficis públics que es poden reivindicar. L’autor tracta de revisar individualment i de prop els valors d’aquesta legitimació.

Violence: les femmes font confiance au milieu médical [Partner violence: women trust health professionals]

In 2008, the department of gynaecology and obstetrics of a university hospital centre implemented a program addressing interpersonal partner violence (screening, prevention and care of the patient victims). A qualitative survey was conducted to identify the needs and feelings of patients. The results show that patients are in favour of being actively and directly questioned about violence during the consultation and that they trust medical doctors and nurses to help and support them.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2008 Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to January 2009), and EMBASE (1980 to January 2009). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included eleven trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that CO measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other seven trials. One trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62). One trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77; 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers. Five trials failed to detect evidence of a significant effect. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO + genetic susceptibility as two different intervention; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. Three others used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings, and one tested for a genetic marker. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analysis.

Sommes-nous prêts à prescrire une polypill à nos patients [Are we ready to prescribe a polypill to our patients?].

The all-in-one pill combination (Polypill) of several active components used in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease was a decade ago purposed to reduce the cardiovascular burden by more than 80%. This Polypill could be approved before 2013 in United States. Although controversed, it could answer to the worried situation even observed in Switzerland: the adherence to secondary prevention treatments is clearly insufficient and the cardiovascular events remain in the first row of death's causes. This abstract summarize the results from interventional studies who tried to valid this concept as well as the main stakes to be assessed on the medical side before to consider such a similar approach in Switzerland.

Individual-based modelling of bacterial cultures to study the lag ohase

Els bacteris són la forma dominant de vida del planeta: poden sobreviure en medis molt adversos, i en alguns casos poden generar substàncies que quan les ingerim ens són tòxiques. La seva presència en els aliments fa que la microbiologia predictiva sigui un camp imprescindible en la microbiologia dels aliments per garantir la seguretat alimentària. Un cultiu bacterià pot passar per quatre fases de creixement: latència, exponencial, estacionària i de mort. En aquest treball s’ha avançat en la comprensió dels fenòmens intrínsecs a la fase de latència, que és de gran interès en l’àmbit de la microbiologia predictiva. Aquest estudi, realitzat al llarg de quatre anys, s’ha abordat des de la metodologia Individual-based Modelling (IbM) amb el simulador INDISIM (INDividual DIScrete SIMulation), que ha estat millorat per poder fer-ho. INDISIM ha permès estudiar dues causes de la fase de latència de forma separada, i abordar l’estudi del comportament del cultiu des d’una perspectiva mesoscòpica. S’ha vist que la fase de latència ha de ser estudiada com un procés dinàmic, i no definida per un paràmetre. L’estudi de l’evolució de variables com la distribució de propietats individuals entre la població (per exemple, la distribució de masses) o la velocitat de creixement, han permès distingir dues etapes en la fase de latència, inicial i de transició, i aprofundir en la comprensió del que passa a nivell cel•lular. S’han observat experimentalment amb citometria de flux diversos resultats previstos per les simulacions. La coincidència entre simulacions i experiments no és trivial ni casual: el sistema estudiat és un sistema complex, i per tant la coincidència del comportament al llarg del temps de diversos paràmetres interrelacionats és un aval a la metodologia emprada en les simulacions. Es pot afirmar, doncs, que s’ha verificat experimentalment la bondat de la metodologia INDISIM.

Integració de tècniques per a la comprovació eficient de restriccions d'integritat en la generació de programari per entorns web

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Politecnico de Milano, Itàlia, entre gener i juny del 2006. Un dels principals objectius de l’Enginyeria del Programari és automatitzar el màxim possible el procés de desenvolupament del programari, reduint costos mitjançant la generació automàtica del programari a partir de la seva especificació. Per assolir-ho, entre altres, cal resoldre el problema de la comprovació eficient de restriccions, que són una part fonamental de l’especificació del programari. Aquest és precisament l’àmbit en què s’està desenvolupant una tesi que presentarà un mètode que poden integrar totes les eines generadores de codi per tal d’assolir una implementació eficient de les restriccions d’integritat. En l’actual fase del projecte s’ha treballat per validar el mètode de la tesi, optimitzant-lo pel cas específic de les aplicacions web i estendre’l per poder tractar també aplicacions basades en workflows. Pel que fa a l’optimització del mètode per aplicacions web, s’han definit una sèrie de paràmetres que permeten configurar la implementació del mètode tenint en compte les necessitats específiques de rendiment de cada aplicació web en particular. Respecte als workflows (cada cop més populars i que s’usen com a definició d’alt nivell per a les aplicacions a desenvolupar) s’ha estudiat quins són els tipus de restriccions que impliquen i com després es pot aplicar el mètode de la tesi sobre aquestes restriccions per tal de generar de forma eficient també les aplicacions basades en workflows.

Comparing impact and cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for lipid-lowering.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering therapy is costly but effective at reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines and compare with a range of risk- and age-based alternative strategies. DESIGN: The CHD Policy Model, a Markov-type cost-effectiveness model. DATA SOURCES: National surveys (1999 to 2004), vital statistics (2000), the Framingham Heart Study (1948 to 2000), other published data, and a direct survey of statin costs (2008). TARGET POPULATION: U.S. population age 35 to 85 years. Time Horizon: 2010 to 2040. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Full adherence to ATP III primary prevention guidelines would require starting (9.7 million) or intensifying (1.4 million) statin therapy for 11.1 million adults and would prevent 20,000 myocardial infarctions and 10,000 CHD deaths per year at an annual net cost of $3.6 billion ($42,000/QALY) if low-intensity statins cost $2.11 per pill. The ATP III guidelines would be preferred over alternative strategies if society is willing to pay $50,000/QALY and statins cost $1.54 to $2.21 per pill. At higher statin costs, ATP III is not cost-effective; at lower costs, more liberal statin-prescribing strategies would be preferred; and at costs less than $0.10 per pill, treating all persons with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels greater than 3.4 mmol/L (>130 mg/dL) would yield net cost savings. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are sensitive to the assumptions that LDL cholesterol becomes less important as a risk factor with increasing age and that little disutility results from taking a pill every day. LIMITATION: Randomized trial evidence for statin effectiveness is not available for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: The ATP III guidelines are relatively cost-effective and would have a large public health impact if implemented fully in the United States. Alternate strategies may be preferred, however, depending on the cost of statins and how much society is willing to pay for better health outcomes. FUNDING: Flight Attendants' Medical Research Institute and the Swanson Family Fund. The Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study are conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.