Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Addition of MR imaging features and genetic biomarkers strengthens glioblastoma survival prediction in TCGA patients.

PURPOSE: The purpose of our study was to assess whether a model combining clinical factors, MR imaging features, and genomics would better predict overall survival of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) than either individual data type. METHODS: The study was conducted leveraging The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) effort supported by the National Institutes of Health. Six neuroradiologists reviewed MRI images from The Cancer Imaging Archive (http://cancerimagingarchive.net) of 102 GBM patients using the VASARI scoring system. The patients' clinical and genetic data were obtained from the TCGA website (http://www.cancergenome.nih.gov/). Patient outcome was measured in terms of overall survival time. The association between different categories of biomarkers and survival was evaluated using Cox analysis. RESULTS: The features that were significantly associated with survival were: (1) clinical factors: chemotherapy; (2) imaging: proportion of tumor contrast enhancement on MRI; and (3) genomics: HRAS copy number variation. The combination of these three biomarkers resulted in an incremental increase in the strength of prediction of survival, with the model that included clinical, imaging, and genetic variables having the highest predictive accuracy (area under the curve 0.679±0.068, Akaike's information criterion 566.7, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: A combination of clinical factors, imaging features, and HRAS copy number variation best predicts survival of patients with GBM.

Professionalisation of sport federations - a multi-level framework for analysing forms, causes and consequences

Research question: International and national sport federations as well as their member organisations are key actors within the sport system and have a wide range of relationships outside the sport system (e.g. with the state, sponsors, and the media). They are currently facing major challenges such as growing competition in top-level sports, democratisation of sports with 'sports for all' and sports as the answer to social problems. In this context, professionalising sport organisations seems to be an appropriate strategy to face these challenges and current problems. We define the professionalisation of sport organisations as an organisational process of transformation leading towards organisational rationalisation, efficiency and business-like management. This has led to a profound organisational change, particularly within sport federations, characterised by the strengthening of institutional management (managerialism) and the implementation of efficiency-based management instruments and paid staff. Research methods: The goal of this article is to review the current international literature and establish a global understanding of and theoretical framework for analysing why and how sport organisations professionalise and what consequences this may have. Results and findings: Our multi-level approach based on the social theory of action integrates the current concepts for analysing professionalisation in sport federations. We specify the framework for the following research perspectives: (1) forms, (2) causes and (3) consequences, and discuss the reciprocal relations between sport federations and their member organisations in this context. Implications: Finally, we work out a research agenda and derive general methodological consequences for the investigation of professionalisation processes in sport organisations.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Impact of reclassifying noninvasive follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma on the risk of malignancy in The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology.

BACKGROUND: Recent discussions have focused on redefining noninvasive follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (NI-FVPTC) as a neoplasm rather than a carcinoma. This study assesses the potential impact of such a reclassification on the implied risk of malignancy (ROM) for the diagnostic categories of The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology (TBSRTC). METHODS: The study consisted of consecutive fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) cases collected between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2014 from 5 academic institutions. Demographic information, cytology diagnoses, and surgical pathology follow-up were recorded. The ROM was calculated with and without NI-FVPTC and was presented as a range: all cases (ie, overall risk of malignancy [OROM]) versus those with surgical follow-up only. RESULTS: The FNAB cohort consisted of 6943 thyroid nodules representing 5179 women and 1409 men with an average age of 54 years (range, 9-94 years). The combined average ROM and OROM for the diagnostic categories of TBSRTC were as follows: nondiagnostic, 4.4% to 25.3%; benign, 0.9% to 9.3%; atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), 12.1% to 31.2%; follicular neoplasm (FN), 21.8% to 33.2%; suspicious for malignancy (SM), 62.1% to 82.6%; and malignant, 75.9% to 99.1%. The impact of reclassifying NI-FVPTC on the ROM and OROM was most pronounced and statistically significant in the 3 indeterminate categories: the AUS/FLUS category had a decrease of 5.2% to 13.6%, the FN category had a decrease of 9.9% to 15.1%, and the SM category had a decrease of 17.6% to 23.4% (P < .05), whereas the benign and malignant categories had decreases of 0.3% to 3.5% and 2.5% to 3.3%, respectfully. The trend of the effect on the ROM and OROM was similar for all 5 institutions. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this multi-institutional cohort indicate that the reclassification of NI-FVPTC will have a significant impact on the ROM for the 3 indeterminate categories of TBSRTC. Cancer Cytopathol 2016;124:181-187. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Analyse de réseau piéton et gestion scolaire: sinuosité, centricité et transport optimal régularisé

Que ce soit d'un point de vue, urbanistique, social, ou encore de la gouvernance, l'évolution des villes est un défi majeur de nos sociétés contemporaines. En offrant la possibilité d'analyser des configurations spatiales et sociales existantes ou en tentant de simuler celles à venir, les systèmes d'information géographique sont devenus incontournables dans la gestion et dans la planification urbaine. En cinq ans la population de la ville de Lausanne est passée de 134'700 à 140'570 habitants, alors que les effectifs de l'école publique ont crû de 12'200 à 13'500 élèves. Cet accroissement démographique associé à un vaste processus d'harmonisation de la scolarité obligatoire en Suisse ont amené le Service des écoles à mettre en place et à développer en collaboration avec l'université de Lausanne des solutions SIG à même de répondre à différentes problématiques spatiales. Établies en 1989, les limites des établissements scolaires (bassins de recrutement) ont dû être redéfinies afin de les réadapter aux réalités d'un paysage urbain et politique en pleine mutation. Dans un contexte de mobilité et de durabilité, un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics basé sur la distance domicile-école et sur l'âge des écoliers, a été conçu. La réalisation de ces projets a nécessité la construction de bases de données géographiques ainsi que l'élaboration de nouvelles méthodes d'analyses exposées dans ce travail. Cette thèse s'est ainsi faite selon une dialectique permanente entre recherches théoriques et nécessités pratiques. La première partie de ce travail porte sur l'analyse du réseau piéton de la ville. La morphologie du réseau est investiguée au travers d'approches multi-échelles du concept de centralité. La première conception, nommée sinuo-centralité ("straightness centrality"), stipule qu'être central c'est être relié aux autres en ligne droite. La deuxième, sans doute plus intuitive, est intitulée centricité ("closeness centrality") et exprime le fait qu'être central c'est être proche des autres (fig. 1, II). Les méthodes développées ont pour but d'évaluer la connectivité et la marchabilité du réseau, tout en suggérant de possibles améliorations (création de raccourcis piétons). Le troisième et dernier volet théorique expose et développe un algorithme de transport optimal régularisé. En minimisant la distance domicile-école et en respectant la taille des écoles, l'algorithme permet de réaliser des scénarios d'enclassement. L'implémentation des multiplicateurs de Lagrange offre une visualisation du "coût spatial" des infrastructures scolaires et des lieux de résidence des écoliers. La deuxième partie de cette thèse retrace les aspects principaux de trois projets réalisés dans le cadre de la gestion scolaire. À savoir : la conception d'un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics, la redéfinition de la carte scolaire, ou encore la simulation des flux d'élèves se rendant à l'école à pied. *** May it be from an urbanistic, a social or from a governance point of view, the evolution of cities is a major challenge in our contemporary societies. By giving the opportunity to analyse spatial and social configurations or attempting to simulate future ones, geographic information systems cannot be overlooked in urban planning and management. In five years, the population of the city of Lausanne has grown from 134'700 to 140'570 inhabitants while the numbers in public schools have increased from 12'200 to 13'500 students. Associated to a considerable harmonisation process of compulsory schooling in Switzerland, this demographic rise has driven schooling services, in collaboration with the University of Lausanne, to set up and develop GIS capable of tackling various spatial issues. Established in 1989, the school districts had to be altered so that they might fit the reality of a continuously changing urban and political landscape. In a context of mobility and durability, an attribution system for public transport subventions based on the distance between residence and school and on the age of the students was designed. The implementation of these projects required the built of geographical databases as well as the elaboration of new analysis methods exposed in this thesis. The first part of this work focuses on the analysis of the city's pedestrian network. Its morphology is investigated through multi-scale approaches of the concept of centrality. The first conception, named the straightness centrality, stipulates that being central is being connected to the others in a straight line. The second, undoubtedly more intuitive, is called closeness centrality and expresses the fact that being central is being close to the others. The goal of the methods developed is to evaluate the connectivity and walkability of the network along with suggesting possible improvements (creation of pedestrian shortcuts).The third and final theoretical section exposes and develops an algorithm of regularised optimal transport. By minimising home to school distances and by respecting school capacity, the algorithm enables the production of student allocation scheme. The implementation of the Lagrange multipliers offers a visualisation of the spatial cost associated to the schooling infrastructures and to the student home locations. The second part of this thesis recounts the principal aspects of three projects fulfilled in the context of school management. It focuses namely on the built of an attribution system for public transport subventions, a school redistricting process and on simulating student pedestrian flows.

Classifier combination for in vivo magnetic resonance spectra of brain tumours

In this paper we present a multi-stage classifier for magnetic resonance spectra of human brain tumours which is being developed as part of a decision support system for radiologists. The basic idea is to decompose a complex classification scheme into a sequence of classifiers, each specialising in different classes of tumours and trying to reproducepart of the WHO classification hierarchy. Each stage uses a particular set of classification features, which are selected using a combination of classical statistical analysis, splitting performance and previous knowledge.Classifiers with different behaviour are combined using a simple voting scheme in order to extract different error patterns: LDA, decision trees and the k-NN classifier. A special label named "unknown¿ is used when the outcomes of the different classifiers disagree. Cascading is alsoused to incorporate class distances computed using LDA into decision trees. Both cascading and voting are effective tools to improve classification accuracy. Experiments also show that it is possible to extract useful information from the classification process itself in order to helpusers (clinicians and radiologists) to make more accurate predictions and reduce the number of possible classification mistakes.

Towards the Construction of a Multi-agent Approach for Discovering the Meaning of Natural Language Collaborative Conversations

Peer-reviewed

Determinações multi-elementares de metais, Sulfato e Cloreto em amostras de águas por espectrometria de massas com fonte de plasma (ICP-MS)

The multi-element determination of Al, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Ba, Pb, SO4= and Cl- in riverine water samples was accomplished by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The sample passed through a column containing the anionic resin AG1-X8 and the metals were determined directly. The retained anionic species were eluted and SO4= and Cl- were determined at m/z 48 and 35 correspondent to the ions SO+ and Cl+ formed at the plasma. Accuracy for metals was assessed by analysing the certified reference TM-26 (National Water Research Institute of Canada). Results for SO4= and Cl- were in agreement with those obtained by turbidimetry and spectrophotometry. LOD's of 0.1 µg l-1 for Cd, Ba and Pb; 0.2 µg l-1 for Al, Mn and Cu; 0.5 µg l-1 for Cr; 0.9 for Zn; 2.0 µg l-1for Ni , 60 µg l-1 for S and 200 µg l-1 Cl were attained.

Public and Private Production in a Mixed Delivery System: Regulation, Competition and Costs

Academics and policy makers are increasingly shifting the debate concerning the best form of public service provision beyond the traditional dilemma between pure public and pure private delivery modes, because, among other reasons, there is a growing body of evidence that casts doubt on the existence of systematic cost savings from privatization, while any competition seems to be eroded over time. In this paper we compare the relative merits of public and private delivery within a mixed delivery system. We study the role played by ownership, transaction costs, and competition on local public service delivery within the same jurisdiction. Using a stochastic cost frontier, we analyze the public-private urban bus system in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. Our results suggest that private firms tendering the service have higher delivery costs than those incurred by the public firm, especially when transaction costs are taken into account. Tenders, therefore, do not help to reduce delivery costs. Our results suggest that under a mixed delivery scheme, which permits the co-existence of public and private production, the metropolitan government and the regulator can use private delivery to contain costs in the public firm and, at the same time, benefit from the greater flexibility of private firms for dealing with events not provided for under contract.

Design and Comparison оf Mixed Hinf/H2 Controller fоr АMB System

This master’s thesis is focused on the active magnetic bearings control, specifically the robust control. As carrying out of such kind of control used mixed H2/Hinf controller. So the goal of this work is to design it using Robust Control Toolbox™ in MATLAB and compare it performance and robustness with Hinf robust controller characteristics. But only one degree-of-freedom controller considered.

Percepción de la intensidad al esfuerzo: un estudio multi-method en actividad física.

Este estudio aborda un doble objetivo: a) conocer si existe progresión signi+cativa entre tres valores correspondientes al índice de Borg elicitados por jóvenes deportistas con relación a tres actividades de intensidad creciente; b) analizar la relación existente entre el índice de masa corporal (IMC) de los participantes con los valores de frecuencia cardíaca (FC) y la percepción de intensidad del esfuerzo (RPE). Método: Treinta y cinco deportistas jóvenes con una edad media de 18 y 28 años (21±0,5), realizaron 3 actividades que exigían una intensidad creciente de ejercicio: leve, moderada y vigorosa (ACSM, 2011). Se controló la frecuencia cardíaca mediante el dispositivo telemétrico Polar Team 2 y al +nalizar las tres actividades se administró tres veces la escala de Borg para obtener la RPE para cada actividad. Se ha complementado la metodología observacional indirecta (índices de Borg) con la metodología cuasiexperimental para obtener inferencias causales mediante un diseño sincrónico de variable de asignación conocida y grupo único. Se ha realizado un análisis de regresión múltiple, considerando la FC y la RPE como variables predictoras del IMC. Resultados: la RPE es creciente, acorde a las actividades, en todos los participantes, aunque en ningún caso la tendencia es estadísticamente signi+cativa. Prácticamente la cuarta parte del IMC se puede explicar por la FC y la RPE puesto que los participantes que tienen valores más altos de FC y de índice de Borg tienen también mayores valores de IMC. Este estudio puede proporcionar una visión de evaluación integrada entre los factores IMC, FC y la RPE, que suelen investigarse de modo aislado.

Multi-component quantitation of loratadine, pseudoephedrine and paracetamol in plasma and pharmaceutical formulations with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry utilizing a monolithic column

The purpose of this study was to develop a rapid, simple and sensitive quantitation method for pseudoephedrine (PSE), paracetamol (PAR) and loratadine (LOR) in plasma and pharmaceuticals using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with a monolithic column. Separation was achieved using a gradient composition of methanol-0.1% formic acid at a flow rate of 1.0 mL min-1. Mass spectral transitions were recorded in SRM mode. System validation was evaluated for precision, specificity and linearity. Limit of detection for pseudoephedrine, paracetamol, and loratadine were determined to be 3.14, 1.86 and 1.44 ng mL-1, respectively, allowing easy determination in plasma with % recovery of 93.12 to 101.56%.

Phase voltage control and filtering in a converter-fed single-phase customer-end system of the LVDC distribution network

In recent years, the network vulnerability to natural hazards has been noticed. Moreover, operating on the limits of the network transmission capabilities have resulted in major outages during the past decade. One of the reasons for operating on these limits is that the network has become outdated. Therefore, new technical solutions are studied that could provide more reliable and more energy efficient power distributionand also a better profitability for the network owner. It is the development and price of power electronics that have made the DC distribution an attractive alternative again. In this doctoral thesis, one type of a low-voltage DC distribution system is investigated. Morespecifically, it is studied which current technological solutions, used at the customer-end, could provide better power quality for the customer when compared with the current system. To study the effect of a DC network on the customer-end power quality, a bipolar DC network model is derived. The model can also be used to identify the supply parameters when the V/kW ratio is approximately known. Although the model provides knowledge of the average behavior, it is shown that the instantaneous DC voltage ripple should be limited. The guidelines to choose an appropriate capacitance value for the capacitor located at the input DC terminals of the customer-end are given. Also the structure of the customer-end is considered. A comparison between the most common solutions is made based on their cost, energy efficiency, and reliability. In the comparison, special attention is paid to the passive filtering solutions since the filter is considered a crucial element when the lifetime expenses are determined. It is found out that the filter topology most commonly used today, namely the LC filter, does not provide economical advantage over the hybrid filter structure. Finally, some of the typical control system solutions are introduced and their shortcomings are presented. As a solution to the customer-end voltage regulation problem, an observer-based control scheme is proposed. It is shown how different control system structures affect the performance. The performance meeting the requirements is achieved by using only one output measurement, when operating in a rigid network. Similar performance can be achieved in a weak grid by DC voltage measurement. An additional improvement can be achieved when an adaptive gain scheduling-based control is introduced. As a conclusion, the final power quality is determined by a sum of various factors, and the thesis provides the guidelines for designing the system that improves the power quality experienced by the customer.