Strategic Behavior and Collusion: An Application to the Spanish Electricity Market

The paper has two major contributions to the theory of repeated games. First, we build a supergame oligopoly model where firms compete in supply functions, we show how collusion sustainability is affected by the presence of a convex cost function, the magnitude of both the slope of demand market, and the number of rivals. Then, we compare the results with those of the traditional Cournot reversion under the same structural characteristics. We find how depending on the number of firms and the slope of the linear demand, collusion sustainability is easier under supply function than under Cournot competition. The conclusions of the models are simulated with data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market to predict lower bounds of the discount factors.

Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: an empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market

Systematic liquidity shocks should affect the optimal behavior of agents in financial markets. Indeed, fluctuations in various measures of liquidity are significantly correlated across common stocks. Accordingly, this paper empirically analyzes whether Spanish average returns vary cross-sectionally with betas estimated relative to two competing liquidity risk factors. The first one, proposed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2002), is associated with the strength of volume-related return reversals. Our marketwide liquidity factor is defined as the difference between returns highly sensitive to changes in the relative bid-ask spread and returns with low sensitivities to those changes. Our empirical results show that neither of these proxies for systematic liquidity risk seems to be priced in the Spanish stock market. Further international evidence is deserved.

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Rationing in the Labor Market

Published as an article in: Topics in Macroeconomics, 2005, vol. 5, issue 1, article 17.

El componente de selección adversa de la horquilla de precios cotizada: una revisión de los modelos de estimación

[ES] Una de las principales preocupaciones en el área de la microestructura del mercado ha sido la estimación de los componentes no observables de la horquilla de precios a partir de las series de datos que proporcionan los mercados financieros, despertando quizá un mayor interés el de selección adversa por la implicaciones que supone la existencia del mismo. Esto ha provocado el desarrollo de numerosos modelos empíricos que, basándose en las propiedades estadísticas de las series de precios, proporcionan dichas estimaciones. La mayor disponibilidad de datos existentes en los mercados ha permitido el desarrollo en los últimos años de modelos basados en técnicas estadísticas más complejas como son el método generalizado de momentos o la metodología VAR y cuya base de partida es la dinámica de la formación del precio, y, en concreto, cómo la información privada de las transacciones se recoge en los nuevos precios cotizados. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar este último grupo de trabajos, es decir, aquellos modelos de estimación de los componentes de la horquilla basados en la dinámica de la formación de precios que, además de permitir la estimación del componente de selección adversa en series temporales, suponen una herramienta fundamental para analizar el proceso de incorporación de la información a los precios cotizados en los distintos mercados.

Marcas de distribuidor: análisis del espacio en el lineal por categorías y enseñas

[ES] El objetivo principal de este trabajo es confirmar si la ocupación de espacio por parte de las marcas de distribuidor en los lineales es excesivo, tal y como parecen afirmar los productores de marcas de fabricante. Para ello, se presentan los resultados de una observación del espacio ocupado por estas marcas en una muestra representativa de 40 categorías en 55 establecimientos. Con los datos obtenidos, se muestran las diferencias existentes entre categorías y entre enseñas. Además se observa si los establecimientos han llegado a un punto de lineal máximo y si el espacio ocupado por sus marcas propias es desproporcionado en relación a su cuota de mercado.

Multinacionales chinas: ¿cómo influyen los factores institucionales en sus patrones de localización?

[ES] Este artículo analiza la influencia de diversos factores institucionales del país de destino sobre los patrones de localización de 29 grandes multinacionales chinas. A partir de una muestra de 127 decisiones de inversión directa en el exterior (IDE) en 52 países, nuestros resultados indican que una mayor dificultad a la hora de hacer negocios y un elevado riesgo político no condicionan sus decisiones de entrada. No obstante, la presencia de personas de etnia china en el país de destino, un mayor tamaño absoluto del mercado y un mayor volumen de exportaciones chinas hacia ese país influyen positivamente.

Key business factors for eco-innovation: an overview of recent firm-level empirical studies

[EN] The increasing interest in eco-innovation or environmental innovation as a strategy not only to address the serious global environmental problems but also as a source of competitive advantages for companies and for the emergence of new business areas, leads us to try to identify the different factors that act as determinants of its development and adoption at the micro level.

Association analyses of DNA polymorphisms in bovine SREBP-1, LXRα,FADS1 genes with fatty acid composition in Canadian commercial crossbred beef steers

Two previously reported DNA polymorphisms of sterol regulatory element binding transcription factor 1 (SREBP1) and liver X receptor alpha (LXRα) and two DNA polymorphisms of fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) were evaluated for associations with fatty acids in brisket adipose tissue of Canadian cross-bred beef steers. The polymorphism of 84 bp insert/deletion in intron 5 of SREBP1 was significantly associated with the concentration of 9c C17:1 (P=0.013). The G>A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the exon 4 of LXRα gene was associated with the concentration of 9c, 11t C18:2 (P=0.04), sum of conjugated linoleic acids (CLA) (P=0.025) and 11c C20:1(P=0.042). Two DNA polymorphisms in the promoter region of FADS1, deletion/insertion of ->GTG in rs133053720 and SNP A>G in rs42187276, were significantly associated with concentrations of C17:0 iso, C17:0 ai, total branched chain fatty acids (BFA), 12t C18:1, 13t/14t C18:1, 15t C18:1, and 13c C18:1 (P<0.05). Further studies are needed to validate the associations and to delineate the roles of the gene polymorphisms in determining the fatty acid composition in beef tissues.

Chemical Treatment Methods Pilot (CTMP) System for Treatment of Urban Runoff – Phase I. Feasibility and Design

(pdf contains 418 pages)

Feasibility Analysis of South Bay Salt Pond Restoration, San Francisco Estuary, California

228pp. (pdf contains 257 pages)

Numerical Analyses of Transonic Fluid/Structure interaction in Aircraft Engineering

Through the coupling between aerodynamic and structural governing equations, a fully implicit multiblock aeroelastic solver was developed for transonic fluid/stricture interaction. The Navier-Stokes fluid equations are solved based on LU-SGS (lower-upper symmetric Gauss-Seidel) Time-marching subiteration scheme and HLLEW (Harten-Lax-van Leer-Einfeldt-Wada) spacing discretization scheme and the same subiteration formulation is applied directly to the structural equations of motion in generalized coordinates. Transfinite interpolation (TFI) is used for the grid deformation of blocks neighboring the flexible surfaces. The infinite plate spline (IPS) and the principal of virtual work are utilized for the data transformation between fluid and structure. The developed code was fort validated through the comparison of experimental and computational results for the AGARD 445.6 standard aeroelastic wing. In the subsonic and transonic range, the calculated flutter speeds and frequencies agree well with experimental data, however, in the supersonic range, the present calculation overpredicts the experimental flutter points similar to other computations. Then the flutter character of a complete aircraft configuration is analyzed through the calculation of the change of structural stiffness. Finally, the phenomenon of aileron buzz is simulated for the weakened model of a supersonic transport wing/body model at Mach numbers of 0.98 and l.05. The calculated unsteady flow shows, on the upper surface, the shock wave becomes stronger as the aileron deflects downward, and the flow behaves just contrary on the lower surface of the wing. Corresponding to general theoretical analysis, the flow instability referred to as aileron buzz is induced by a stronger shock alternately moving on the upper and lower surfaces of wing. For the rigid structural model, the flow is stable at all calculated Mach numbers as observed in experiment

MBARI procedures for automated nutrient analyses using a modified Alpkem Series 300 Rapid Flow Analyzer

This report documents the methods used at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) for analyzing seawater nutrient samples with an Alpkem Series 300 Rapid Flow Analyzer (RFA) system. The methods have been optimized for the particular requirements of this laboratory. The RFA system has been used to analyze approximately 20,000 samples during the past two years. The methods have been optimized to run nutrient analyses in a routine manner with a detection limit of better than -±1% and a within run precision of -±1% of the full scale concentration range. The normal concentration ranges are 0-200 ~M silicate, 0-5 ~M phosphate, 0-50 ~M nitrate, 0-3 ~M nitrite, and 0-10 ~M ammonium. The memorandum is designed to be used in a loose-leaf binder format. Each page is dated and as revisions are made, they should be inserted into the binder. The revisions should be added into the binder. Retain the old versions in order to maintain a historical record of the procedures. (88 pages)

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

The Vietnamese shrimp trade: livelihoods analysis of stakeholders and market chain analysis

Aquaculture and capture fisheries in Vietnam have been increasing fast in the last decade, especially aquaculture growth rate is 12% for the 1999 – 2003 period, contributing a significant part into the hunger eradication and poverty reduction1. Vietnam is to be ranked into one of the countries potential to produce the aquatic economic in the world, and the fact is that, after 40 years of establishing, the fisheries sector has made remarkable contributions to the country. By the list, at the moment the aquatic products make up about 4 - 5% of GDP and create job opportunities for over 3 three million employees (VASEP, 2004), in which the largest contribution is from shrimp farming. [PDF contains 124 pages.]