A comparison of two identification and tracking methods for polar lows

In this study, we compare two different cyclone-tracking algorithms to detect North Atlantic polar lows, which are very intense mesoscale cyclones. Both approaches include spatial filtering, detection, tracking and constraints specific to polar lows. The first method uses digital bandpass-filtered mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fieldsin the spatial range of 200�600 km and is especially designed for polar lows. The second method also uses a bandpass filter but is based on the discrete cosine transforms (DCT) and can be applied to MSLP and vorticity fields. The latter was originally designed for cyclones in general and has been adapted to polar lows for this study. Both algorithms are applied to the same regional climate model output fields from October 1993 to September 1995 produced from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Comparisons between these two methods show that different filters lead to different numbers and locations of tracks. The DCT is more precise in scale separation than the digital filter and the results of this study suggest that it is more suited for the bandpass filtering of MSLP fields. The detection and tracking parts also influence the numbers of tracks although less critically. After a selection process that applies criteria to identify tracks of potential polar lows, differences between both methods are still visible though the major systems are identified in both.

Winckelmann and the invention of antiquity: history and aesthetics in the age of Altertumswissenschaft

This volume provides a new perspective on the emergence of the modern study of antiquity, Altertumswissenschaft, in eighteenth-century Germany through an exploration of debates that arose over the work of the art historian Johann Joachim Winckelmann between his death in 1768 and the end of the century. This period has long been recognised as particularly formative for the development of modern classical studies, and over the past few decades has received increased attention from historians of scholarship and of ideas. Winckelmann's eloquent articulation of the cultural and aesthetic value of studying the ancient Greeks, his adumbration of a new method for studying ancient artworks, and his provision of a model of cultural-historical development in terms of a succession of period styles, influenced both the public and intra-disciplinary self-image of classics long into the twentieth century. Yet this area of Winckelmann's Nachleben has received relatively little attention compared with the proliferation of studies concerning his importance for late eighteenth-century German art and literature, for historians of sexuality, and his traditional status as a 'founder figure' within the academic disciplines of classical archaeology and the history of art. Harloe restores the figure of Winckelmann to classicists' understanding of the history of their own discipline and uses debates between important figures, such as Christian Gottlob Heyne, Friedrich August Wolf, and Johann Gottfried Herder, to cast fresh light upon the emergence of the modern paradigm of classics as Altertumswissenschaft: the multi-disciplinary, comprehensive, and historicizing study of the ancient world.

Metaphors in complexity theory and planning

This article reviews the use of complexity theory in planning theory using the theory of metaphors for theory transfer and theory construction. The introduction to the article presents the author's positioning of planning theory. The first section thereafter provides a general background of the trajectory of development of complexity theory and discusses the rationale of using the theory of metaphors for evaluating the use of complexity theory in planning. The second section introduces the workings of metaphors in general and theory-constructing metaphors in particular, drawing out an understanding of how to proceed with an evaluative approach towards an analysis of the use of complexity theory in planning. The third section presents two case studies – reviews of two articles – to illustrate how the framework might be employed. It then discusses the implications of the evaluation for the question ‘can complexity theory contribute to planning?’ The concluding section discusses the employment of the ‘theory of metaphors’ for evaluating theory transfer and draws out normative suggestions for engaging in theory transfer using the metaphorical route.

Spectral nonlocality, absolute equilibria and Kraichnan-Leith-Batchelor phenomenology in two-dimensional turbulent energy cascades

We study the degree to which Kraichnan–Leith–Batchelor (KLB) phenomenology describes two-dimensional energy cascades in α turbulence, governed by ∂θ/∂t+J(ψ,θ)=ν∇2θ+f, where θ=(−Δ)α/2ψ is generalized vorticity, and ψ^(k)=k−αθ^(k) in Fourier space. These models differ in spectral non-locality, and include surface quasigeostrophic flow (α=1), regular two-dimensional flow (α=2) and rotating shallow flow (α=3), which is the isotropic limit of a mantle convection model. We re-examine arguments for dual inverse energy and direct enstrophy cascades, including Fjørtoft analysis, which we extend to general α, and point out their limitations. Using an α-dependent eddy-damped quasinormal Markovian (EDQNM) closure, we seek self-similar inertial range solutions and study their characteristics. Our present focus is not on coherent structures, which the EDQNM filters out, but on any self-similar and approximately Gaussian turbulent component that may exist in the flow and be described by KLB phenomenology. For this, the EDQNM is an appropriate tool. Non-local triads contribute increasingly to the energy flux as α increases. More importantly, the energy cascade is downscale in the self-similar inertial range for 2.5<α<10. At α=2.5 and α=10, the KLB spectra correspond, respectively, to enstrophy and energy equipartition, and the triad energy transfers and flux vanish identically. Eddy turnover time and strain rate arguments suggest the inverse energy cascade should obey KLB phenomenology and be self-similar for α<4. However, downscale energy flux in the EDQNM self-similar inertial range for α>2.5 leads us to predict that any inverse cascade for α≥2.5 will not exhibit KLB phenomenology, and specifically the KLB energy spectrum. Numerical simulations confirm this: the inverse cascade energy spectrum for α≥2.5 is significantly steeper than the KLB prediction, while for α<2.5 we obtain the KLB spectrum.

Exploring socioeconomic impacts of forest based mitigation projects: Lessons from Brazil and Bolivia

This paper aims to contribute new insights globally and regionally on how carbon forest mitigation contributes to sustainable development in South America. Carbon finance has emerged as a potential policy option to tackling global climate change, degradation of forests, and social development in poor countries. This paper focuses on evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of a set of forest based mitigation pilot projects that emerged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper reviews research conducted in 2001–2002, drawing from empirical data from four pilot projects, derived from qualitative stakeholder interviews, and complemented by policy documents and literature. Of the four projects studied three are located in frontier areas, where there are considerable pressures for conversion of standing forest to agriculture. In this sense, forest mitigation projects have a substantial role to play in the region. Findings suggest however, that all four projects have experienced cumbersome implementation processes specifically, due to weak social objectives, poor communication, as well as time constraints. In three out of four cases, stakeholders highlighted limited local acceptance at the implementation stages. In the light of these findings, we discuss opportunities for implementation of future forest based mitigation projects in the land use sector.

Explicit and implicit subject bias in the ABS journal quality guide

This paper addresses issues raised in two recent papers published in this journal about the UK Association of Business Schools' Journal Quality Guide (ABS Guide). While much of the debate about journal rankings in general, and the ABS Guide in particular, has focused on the construction, power and (mis)use of these rankings, this paper differs in that it explains and provides evidence about explicit and implicit biases in the ABS Guide. In so doing, it poses potentially difficult questions that the editors of the ABS Guide need to address and urgently rectify if the ABS Guide seeks to build and retain legitimacy. In particular, the evidence in this paper shows explicit bias in the ABS Guide against several subject areas, including accounting and finance. It also shows implicit bias against accounting and finance when comparing journal rankings in sub-areas shared between accounting and finance and the broader business management subject areas.

Learning to think in a second language: effects of proficiency and length of exposure in English learners of German

The aim of the current study is to investigate motion event cognition in second language learners in a higher education learning context. Based on recent findings showing that speakers of grammatical aspect languages like English attend less to the endpoint (goal) of events than speakers of non-aspect languages like Swedish in a nonverbal categorization task involving working memory (Athanasopoulos & Bylund, 2013; Bylund & Athanasopoulos, this issue), the current study asks whether native speakers of an aspect language start paying more attention to event endpoints when learning a non-aspect language. Native English and German (a non-aspect language) speakers, and English learners of L2 German, who were pursuing studies in German language and literature at an English university, were asked to match a target scene with intermediate degree of endpoint orientation with two alternate scenes with low and high degree of endpoint orientation, respectively. Results showed that, when compared to the native English speakers, the learners of German were more prone to base their similarity judgements on endpoint saliency, rather than ongoingness, primarily as a function of increasing L2 proficiency and year of university study. Further analyses revealed a non-linear relationship between length of L2 exposure and categorization patterns, subserved by a progressive strengthening of the relationship between L2 proficiency and categorization as length of exposure increased. These findings present evidence that cognitive restructuring may occur through increasing experience with an L2, but also suggest that this relationship may be complex, and unfold over a long period of time.

Common components of risk and uncertainty attitudes across contexts and domains: Evidence from 30 countries

Attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have been indicated to be highly context-dependent, and to be sensitive to the measurement technique employed. We present data collected in controlled experiments with 2,939 subjects in 30 countries measuring risk and uncertainty attitudes through incentivized measures as well as survey questions. Our data show clearly that measures correlate not only within decision contexts or measurement methods, but also across contexts and methods. This points to the existence of one underlying “risk preference”, which influences attitudes independently of the measurement method or choice domain. We furthermore find that answers to a general and a financial survey question correlate with incentivized lottery choices in most countries. Incentivized and survey measures also correlate significantly between countries. This opens the possibility to conduct cultural comparisons on risk attitudes using survey instruments.

Capturing and sharing our collective expertise on climate data: the CHARMe project

For users of climate services, the ability to quickly determine the datasets that best fit one's needs would be invaluable. The volume, variety and complexity of climate data makes this judgment difficult. The ambition of CHARMe ("Characterization of metadata to enable high-quality climate services") is to give a wider interdisciplinary community access to a range of supporting information, such as journal articles, technical reports or feedback on previous applications of the data. The capture and discovery of this "commentary" information, often created by data users rather than data providers, and currently not linked to the data themselves, has not been significantly addressed previously. CHARMe applies the principles of Linked Data and open web standards to associate, record, search and publish user-derived annotations in a way that can be read both by users and automated systems. Tools have been developed within the CHARMe project that enable annotation capability for data delivery systems already in wide use for discovering climate data. In addition, the project has developed advanced tools for exploring data and commentary in innovative ways, including an interactive data explorer and comparator ("CHARMe Maps") and a tool for correlating climate time series with external "significant events" (e.g. instrument failures or large volcanic eruptions) that affect the data quality. Although the project focuses on climate science, the concepts are general and could be applied to other fields. All CHARMe system software is open-source, released under a liberal licence, permitting future projects to re-use the source code as they wish.