Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Hysteresis modeling of Magneto-Rheological (MR) fluid damper by self tuning fuzzy control

Magneto-rheological (MR) fluid damper is a semi-active control device that has recently received more attention by the vibration control community. But inherent nonlinear hysteresis character of magneto-rheological fluid dampers is one of the challenging aspects for utilizing this device to achieve high system performance. So the development of accurate model is necessary to take the advantage their unique characteristics. Research by others [3] has shown that a system of nonlinear differential equations can successfully be used to describe the hysteresis behavior of the MR damper. The focus of this paper is to develop an alternative method for modeling a damper in the form of centre average fuzzy interference system, where back propagation learning rules are used to adjust the weight of network. The inputs for the model are used from the experimental data. The resulting fuzzy interference system is satisfactorily represents the behavior of the MR fluid damper with reduced computational requirements. Use of the neuro-fuzzy model increases the feasibility of real time simulation.

Tangible programming elements for young children

Tangible programming elements offer the dynamic and programmable properties of a computer without the complexity introduced by the keyboard, mouse and screen. This paper explores the extent to which programming skills are used by children during interactions with a set of tangible programming elements: the Electronic Blocks. An evaluation of the Electronic Blocks indicates that children become heavily engaged with the blocks, and learn simple programming with a minimum of adult support.

Validation Gating for Non-Linear Non-Gaussian Target Tracking

This paper develops a general theory of validation gating for non-linear non-Gaussian mod- els. Validation gates are used in target tracking to cull very unlikely measurement-to-track associa- tions, before remaining association ambiguities are handled by a more comprehensive (and expensive) data association scheme. The essential property of a gate is to accept a high percentage of correct associ- ations, thus maximising track accuracy, but provide a su±ciently tight bound to minimise the number of ambiguous associations. For linear Gaussian systems, the ellipsoidal vali- dation gate is standard, and possesses the statistical property whereby a given threshold will accept a cer- tain percentage of true associations. This property does not hold for non-linear non-Gaussian models. As a system departs from linear-Gaussian, the ellip- soid gate tends to reject a higher than expected pro- portion of correct associations and permit an excess of false ones. In this paper, the concept of the ellip- soidal gate is extended to permit correct statistics for the non-linear non-Gaussian case. The new gate is demonstrated by a bearing-only tracking example.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and least squares algorithm are utilized to tune the parameters of the membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed algorithm, the data sets obtained from vibration signals and current signals of the induction motors are used. The results indicate that the CART–ANFIS model has potential for fault diagnosis of induction motors.

Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.