An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory -- We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) -- We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships -- The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices -- In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks

Modelo de competências no contexto da escola pública portuguesa : análise da função do diretor

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

Robustness in facility location

Facility location concerns the placement of facilities, for various objectives, by use of mathematical models and solution procedures. Almost all facility location models that can be found in literature are based on minimizing costs or maximizing cover, to cover as much demand as possible. These models are quite efficient for finding an optimal location for a new facility for a particular data set, which is considered to be constant and known in advance. In a real world situation, input data like demand and travelling costs are not fixed, nor known in advance. This uncertainty and uncontrollability can lead to unacceptable losses or even bankruptcy. A way of dealing with these factors is robustness modelling. A robust facility location model aims to locate a facility that stays within predefined limits for all expectable circumstances as good as possible. The deviation robustness concept is used as basis to develop a new competitive deviation robustness model. The competition is modelled with a Huff based model, which calculates the market share of the new facility. Robustness in this model is defined as the ability of a facility location to capture a minimum market share, despite variations in demand. A test case is developed by which algorithms can be tested on their ability to solve robust facility location models. Four stochastic optimization algorithms are considered from which Simulated Annealing turned out to be the most appropriate. The test case is slightly modified for a competitive market situation. With the Simulated Annealing algorithm, the developed competitive deviation model is solved, for three considered norms of deviation. At the end, also a grid search is performed to illustrate the landscape of the objective function of the competitive deviation model. The model appears to be multimodal and seems to be challenging for further research.

Automação da drenagem no teste de produção convencional em tanque cilíndrico

This document aims to improve the quality of the production test in vertical tanks with free water drain pipes, through a device to control the draining system. This proposal consists of an interface detector close to the tank bottle and a control valve on the pipe-drain; they are attached to a remote supervisor system, which will be minimizing the human influence in the conclusion of the test result. And for more consciousness the work shows the importance of the wells production test in the attendance and diagnosis of the productive process, informing the large number of tests executed and problems of the procedure adopted in the field today. There are many possible sources of uncertainty in this kind of test as shown in the experiments realized in the field; the object prototype of this dissertation will be made in the field, based upon the definition of parameters and characteristics of the devices proposal. For a better definition of the draining process the action results of the assessment test are shown, especially changed some for the understand ing of the real process. It shows the proposal details and the configuration that will be used in the tank of Monte Alegre s field Production Station, explaining the interface detector kind and the control system. It is the base to a pilot project now in development, named as the new project classified in the status of the new technology and production improvement of PETROBRAS in Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará. This dissertation concludes that the automation of the conventional test with the draining system will bring benefits both economically as metrologically, because it reduces the uncertainty of the test procedures with free water draining, and also decreases the number of tests with problems

Statistical properties of radiation of multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser

In the presented paper, the temporal and statistical properties of a Lyot filter based multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser with a wide flat spectrum, consisting of individual lines, were investigated. It was shown that separate spectral lines forming the laser spectrum have mostly Gaussian statistics and so represent stochastic radiation, but at the same time the entire radiation is not fully stochastic. A simple model, taking into account phenomenological correlations of the lines' initial phases was established. Radiation structure in the experiment and simulation proved to be different, demanding interactions between different lines to be described via a NLSE-based model.

Índice general de fuerza y adiposidad como medida de la condición relacionada con la salud en niños y adolescentes de Bogotá, Colombia: Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivos: El presente estudio tuvo por objetivo general (1) determinar los valores de referencia de la condición muscular mediante el índice general de fuerza (IGF) y como objetivo específico, (2) estudiar si el IGF está relacionado con indicadores de adiposidad en niños y adolescentes escolares de Bogotá, Colombia. Métodos: Del total de 7.268 niños y adolescentes (9-17.9 años) evaluados en el estudio FUPRECOL, 4.139 (57%) fueron mujeres. Se evaluó el IGF como marcador del desempeño muscular a partir de la tipificación de las pruebas de fuerza prensil (FP) y salto longitud (SL). El IGF se recodificó en cuartiles (Q), siendo el Q4 la posición con mejor valor del IGF. El índice de masa corporal (IMC), la circunferencia de cintura (CC), el índice cintura/talla (ICT) y el porcentaje de grasa corporal (%GC) por Bioimpedancia eléctrica, se midieron como marcadores de adiposidad. Resultados: La edad media de los evaluados fue 12,8±2,3 años. Se aprecia una tendencia hacia un incremento del nivel de condición física muscular en los varones conforme aumenta la edad, y hacia la estabilidad o un ligero aumento en el caso de las mujeres. El IGF se relacionó inversamente con el ICT y %GC en los varones (r= -0,280, r= -0,327 p<0,01), respectivamente. Los escolares ubicados en el Q4 del IGF, presentaron menores valores en marcadores de adiposidad IMC, CC, ICT y %GC, p<0,01 que su contraparte del Q1. Conclusión: Se presentan valores de referencia del IGF a partir de la estandarización de los resultados obtenidos en la FP y SL. La evaluación de la fuerza muscular en edades tempranas permitirá implementar programas de prevención de riesgo cardiovascular y metabólico futuro

Percentiles de la prueba de carrera de ida y vuelta 4x10 m en escolares de 9 a 17 años de Bogotá, Colombia: Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivo: Este estudio describe los percentiles de la prueba de carrera de ida y vuelta 4 x 10 m en escolares de 9 a 17 años, de Bogotá, Colombia, pertenecientes al estudio Asociación de la fuerza prensil con manifestaciones tempranas de riesgo cardiovascular en niños colombianos. “FUPRECOL” Métodos: Estudio descriptivo transversal, en 2502 varones (42.7%) y 3349 mujeres (57,2%), de edades entre 9 y 17 años, pertenecientes a 24 instituciones educativas del sector oficial, en Bogotá, Colombia. La velocidad/agilidad se evaluó con la prueba de carrera de ida y vuelta 4 x 10 m (componente motor de la batería Fuprecol). Se calcularon los percentiles (P3, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90 y P97) y curvas centiles por el método LMS, según el sexo y la edad; y se realizó una comparación entre los valores de la velocidad-agilidad observados con estudios internacionales. Resultados: La edad promedio de los participantes fue 12,7 (DE 2,4) años. Al comparar por sexos, los varones presentan un mejor rendimiento en la prueba de carrera 4 x 10 m que las mujeres. En varones, el P50 osciló entre 11,9 segundos y 13,1 segundos, mientras que en mujeres el P50 osciló entre 14,3 segundos y 15,0 segundos. Al comparar los resultados de este estudio por grupos de edades y sexos, con trabajos internacionales, el P50 fue mayor al reportado en los trabajos de España, Portugal y el estudio HELENA realizado en 9 países europeos. Esta misma tendencia fue observada al comparar la media y la desviación estándar con escolares de Argentina, Francia y el mismo estudio HELENA. Conclusiones: Se registran percentiles de la prueba de carrera de ida y vuelta 4 x 10 m en función de las edades y el sexo. Estos valores pueden ser utilizados tanto para evaluar los niveles de aptitud de los estudiantes como para detectar a estudiantes cuyos niveles de condición física están por debajo de un mínimo saludable.

Au1to-reporte de la condición física relacionada con la salud en una muestra de escolares del distrito Bogotá: estudio FUPRECOL

Introducción y objetivo: La escala de auto-reporte de la condición física (IFIS) “The International FItness Scale”, fue creada como parte del proyecto financiado por la unión europea HELENA Study “Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence”. A la fecha, no se conoce ningún estudio que haya examinado el auto-reporte de la condición física en un contexto distinto al Europeo. Este trabajo evalúa por auto-reporte la condición física relacionada con la salud (CFRS) en una muestra de niños y adolescentes del distrito de Bogotá pertenecientes al grupo FUPRECOL. Materiales y Método: Estudio transversal en 1.922 escolares (54.3% mujeres). Se aplicó de manera auto-administrada la escala “IFIS”. Se midió el peso, talla, circunferencia de cintura y se calculó el índice de masa corporal (IMC) en kg/m2. La capacidad aeróbica, el índice general de fuerza (z-score fuerza prensil + z-score salto de longitud), la velocidad/agilidad y la flexibilidad fueron como indicadores objetivos de la CFRS objetiva y directa. Resultados: La muestra estuvo conformada por 1.922 escolares, de los cuales 1.045 fueron mujeres (54.3%) y 877 hombres (45.6%). El análisis ANOVA mostró que los varones tenían mayores valores de peso (p<0.003), estatura (p<0.001), CC (p<0.001), capacidad aeróbica (p<0.001), velocidad/agilidad (p<0.001) e índice general de fuerza (p<0.001), mientras que las mujeres presentaron exceso de peso por IMC (sobrepeso y obesidad). En el componente de condición física general, las puntuaciones más altas en la escala “IFIS” se encontraron en la categoría buena (40%), seguido de aceptable (34%), mientras que la puntuación más baja se encontró en la categoría muy mala/mala (6%). En población general, relaciones lineales fueron observadas entre el auto-reporte de la CFRS por la escala “IFIS” y la mayoría de los indicadores del fitness evaluado objetivamente. El análisis post-hoc ajustado por sexo, edad y etapa de maduración reveló que los escolares que acusaron mejores valores en la auto-percepción de los dominios del “IFIS”, presentaron mejor desempeño en los indicadores de CFRS objetivos. Conclusión: Este trabajo describe por primera vez en población Latina, que el auto-reporte con la escala “IFIS”, es un instrumento válido para evaluar la CFRS, y además posee una adecuada capacidad para clasificar la aptitud física en población escolar de Bogotá, Colombia. Esta escala se encuentra disponible para otros investigadores interesados en evaluar la condición física muscular en América Latina.

Handgrip strength cut-off for cardiometabolic risk index among Colombian children and adolescents : the FUPRECOL study

Abstract Objective: Evidence shows an association between muscular strength (MS) and health among youth, however low muscular strength cut-points for the detection of high metabolic risk in Latin-American populations are scarce. The aim of this study was two-fold: to explore potential age- and sex-specific thresholds of MS, for optimal cardiometabolic risk categorization among Colombian children and adolescents; and to investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by MS group by applying the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) cut point. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study (the FUPRECOL study), published elsewhere. The FUPRECOL study assessments were conducted during the 2014– 2015 school year. MS was estimated by a handle dynamometer on 1,950 children and adolescents from Colombia, using the MS relative to weight (handgrip strength/body mass). A metabolic risk score was computed from the following components: waist circumference, triglycerides, HDL-c, glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ROC analysis showed a significant discriminatory accuracy of MS in identifying the low/high metabolic risk in children and adolescents and both gender. Results: In children, handgrip strength/body mass level for a low metabolic risk were 0.359 and 0.376 in girls and boys, respectively. In adolescents, these points were 0.440 and 0.447 in girls and boys, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results suggest a hypothetical MS level relative to weight for having a low metabolic risk, which could be used to identify youths at risk.

Normative reference of standing long jump for Colombian schoolchildren aged 9-17.9 years: The FUPRECOL study

El propósito del presente estudio era generar los valores normativos de salto largo para niños de 9-17.9 años, e investigar las diferencias de sexo y grupo de edad

Application of Mixture Models to Survival Data

Survival models are being widely applied to the engineering field to model time-to-event data once censored data is here a common issue. Using parametric models or not, for the case of heterogeneous data, they may not always represent a good fit. The present study relays on critical pumps survival data where traditional parametric regression might be improved in order to obtain better approaches. Considering censored data and using an empiric method to split the data into two subgroups to give the possibility to fit separated models to our censored data, we’ve mixture two distinct distributions according a mixture-models approach. We have concluded that it is a good method to fit data that does not fit to a usual parametric distribution and achieve reliable parameters. A constant cumulative hazard rate policy was used as well to check optimum inspection times using the obtained model from the mixture-model, which could be a plus when comparing with the actual maintenance policies to check whether changes should be introduced or not.

E-Procurement and Innovation in the Portuguese Municipalities: When Change Is Mandatory

Changing the traditional pattern of public procurement for an electronic paradigm is a radical innovation involving major organizational changes, the breaking up of traditional processes and practices, obsolescence of knowledge and skills. Going beyond the European Commission's recommendations, in 2009 Portugal pioneered in making e-procurement mandatory in the pre-award phase, in a European context of multiple technical standards and lack of interoperability of electronic platforms across the EU countries. Six years later, when the creation of a European e-procurement single market is a EU mission and a major legislative amendment is underway in Portugal, this study looks at the relationship between e-procurement and innovation in the Portuguese municipalities aiming to understand the extent into which the adoption of e-procurement embraced a real organizational change or, on the other hand, if it just represented a mere adaptation of the usual procurement practices. The study draws on data from an electronic survey to all municipalities in mainland Portugal and the analysis is mainly descriptive and exploratory. The paradigm shift in public procurement involves major organizational changes but, overall, the results suggest that most municipalities do not have a clear understanding of the innovative scope (depth and diversity) implied by e-procurement. E-procurement shows advantages over the paper-based model but an unbalanced perception of the innovation dimensions has influenced the implementation of e-procurement and the degree of organizational change.

Influencia del programa filosofía para niños (FpN) en el desarrollo de la competencia comunicativa de los estudiantes de educación primaria

Recibido 10 de noviembre de 2011 • Aceptado 23 de febrero 2012 • Corregido 14 de abril de 2012    El objetivo de esta investigación fue desarrollar la competencia comunicativa de los estudiantes de educación primaria basado en el programa Filosofía para Niños (FpN) contextualizado. Se tomaron como referencia los aportes de Lipman (1998), Bruzual (2002), Prado (2004b), entre otros. La investigación fue explicativa, de campo, cuasiexperimental. La población fue de 255 alumnos mestizos y de la etnia Wayuu. La muestra fue de 35 niños de segundo grado (7, 8 y 9 años). El instrumento aplicado fue un test con respuestas dicotómicas. La confiabilidad se ubicó en rkk = 0,855 (Kuder-Richardson). Se aplicó la prueba t-student como herramienta estadística. Producto de la investigación se creó un poemario denominado “Odas a tepi’chi”, de lo cual se concluye que la aplicación del programa FpN fue adecuado en el desarrollo de la competencia comunicativa.

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (λET) and evaporation (λEE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (λE), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on λET and λEE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, λET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on λET during the wet (rainy) seasons where λET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80 % of the variances of λET. However, biophysical control on λET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65 % of the variances of λET, and indicates λET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between λET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (?ET) and evaporation (?EE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (?E), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on ?ET and ?EE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, ?ET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on ?ET during the wet (rainy) seasons where ?ET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80?% of the variances of ?ET. However, biophysical control on ?ET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65?% of the variances of ?ET, and indicates ?ET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between ?ET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.