Ajuste fiscal no Brasil: algumas considerações de caráter pós-keynesian

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.

Democracia e eficiência: a difícil relação entre política e economia no debate contemporâneo

Democracy and efficiency: hard relations between politics and economy. Many economists see politics as an irrational activity. They also think state action usually generates market inefficiencies and democratic institutions, such as elections, often work as obstacles to sound economic measures. Showing that vision has been embedded into the main currents of economic thought since the last century, we also argue those ideas are exported to great part of contemporary political science, including the area of public policies. Examining the literature, we show that rational choice political scientists, as the economists, claim governability and effective decisions will be guaranteed mainly through concentrated arenas or through insulated arrangements able to protect policy makers from political interference. In other words, governability depends on the reduction of the political arenas. On the contrary, we reject this technocratic solution of splitting politics from economy. With the support of classical pluralist thinkers, we stand another conception, arguing politics is the privileged social space for building interests and values in an institutionalized way. The difficulties to surpass current international crises since 2008 reveal this is a crucial problem: reducing politics would prevent societies from improving institutional solutions which are the only ones able to give space to emerging conflicts and, then, reach eventual consensus around them.

The grab of the world's land and water resources

In this paper, I review recent developments in global political economy and political economy of development that have captured inter alia the attention of agrarian political economists. I do so through the periscope of two recent publications by Fred pearce, Great Britain's leading eco journalist and an edited volume by Tony Allann, Martin Keulertz, Suvi Sojamo and Jeroen Warner, scholars trained in different disciplines and based at various universities in the UK, the netherlands, and Finland. The account of the pace, places, and perpetrators, procedures, and problems of this particular agrarian model provides fodder for the further development of a locus classicus on what is happening to the land question in this current moment under the capitalist order, a shorthand for which is 'water and land grab'.

A regional arrangement proposal for the UNASUR

The article analyses the current process of economic integration in South America. Thus, concentrating our attention on the UNASUR regional integration process, two questions arise: First, is UNASUR the most viable institution to achieve a consistent economic integration process in South America? Second, what model of economic integration should be adopted in the case of UNASUR, which would ensure macroeconomic stability and avoid financial and exchange rate crises in the South America? To answer these questions, the article proposes, based on the Keynes (1944/1980)'s revolutionary analysis presented in his International Clearing Union, during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, a regional arrangement to UNASUR.

A plausibilidade da pós-história no sentido estético

A ideia do "fim da história", subentendida no capítulo final da Fenomenologia do espírito, serviu de base para o início de uma discussão, feita a partir das posições assumidas por Alexandre Kojève nos seus cursos sobre Hegel em Paris, na década de 1930, e em sua publicação no final dos anos 1940 (com reedição em 1968), voltou à baila com o artigo de Francis Fukuyama, de 1989, sobre o "fim da história", no qual ele comemorava o fim do "socialismo real" e a hegemonia mundial completa dos Estados Unidos da América. Passada a euforia sobre a "nova ordem mundial", inclusive em virtude de sucessivas crises econômicas, é interessante recolocar a questão sobre as condições sob as quais são aceitáveis conceitos associados a esse tema, especialmente o substantivo "pós-história" e o adjetivo "pós-histórico". A tese a ser defendida nesse artigo é a de que o campo da estética é um âmbito em que esses conceitos são defensáveis. Como exemplos de reflexões estéticas frutíferas que deles se valem, são consideradas a noção de "arte pós-histórica", de Arthur Danto, e os desdobramentos estéticos do conceito de "pós-história", tal como sustentado por Vilém Flusser.

Heidegger and Blumenberg on modernity

The debate surrounding the way in which Heidegger and Blumenberg understand the modern age is an opportunity to discuss two different approaches to history. On one hand, from Heidegger's perspective, history should be understood as starting from how Western thought related to Being, which, in metaphysical thinking, took the form of the forgetfulness of Being. Thus, the modern age represents the last stage in the process of forgetfulness of Being, which announces the moment of the rethinking of the relationship with Being by appealing to the authentic disclosure of Being. On the other hand, Blumenberg understands history as the result of the reoccupation process, which means replacing old theories with other new ones. Thus, to the historical approach it is not important to identify epochs as periods of time between two events, but to think about the discontinuities occurring throughout history. Starting from here, the modern age will be thought of not as an expression of the radicalization of the forgetfulness of Being, but as a response to the crises of medieval conceptions. For the same reason, the interpretation of history as a history of the forgetfulness of Being is considered by Blumenberg to subordinate history to an absolute principle, without taking into account its protagonists' needs and necessities.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

2014 Ukraine crisis – Implications for corporate crisis management

In the late year 2013 events started to unfold in Ukraine’s capital city Kiev that would change the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia. The tension had been building for years between the two parties with Ukraine in the middle and during 2014 the tension blew up and events started to escalate into a crisis, which we now know as the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The crisis would include political, economic, and even military actions by all the parties involved with Ukraine slipping close to civil war. Both political and economic hardships followed for others as well with both the EU and Russia placing heavy political and economic sanctions on each other. Most notably in terms of this paper, the Russian federation placed total import embargo sanctions on food imports from the EU and some other countries. This meant that a Finnish dairy company, Valio, had to engage in corporate crisis management as almost a fifth of its total revenue was cut in a heartbeat. Valio had been prepared for some kind of complications with their Russian market as events started to unfold in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 but never did they suspect that a complete shutdown of the Russian market would follow. The company is still recovering after more than a year after the sanctions were posed and have not been able to supplement the lost revenue streams. This research is a qualitative research aiming to find answers to the main questions: 1) What is the 2014 Ukraine crisis and what kind of special implications does it have and 2) How did the crisis affect Valio and how did Valio fare in its crisis management efforts. The data has been collected both from secondary document sources and primary sources. The main findings of this research are that the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia has gone through a profound change during the years 2013-2015. The companies and governments should re-evaluate what kind of environment they are now facing and what kinds of risks the new situation poses. This also calls for a deep academic analysis from the academic community. In corporate crisis management of Valio the main findings are that the former literature has looked into crisis management as one-time occurrence but the new crises and global events would call for a more on-going crisis analysis and active crisis management. Thus, corporate crisis management should be viewed as a cycle. Valio specifically handled the situation surprisingly well, considering that their revenue was indeed cut by a fifth. The main aspects of crisis management, which Valio did not handle as well, concern the learning curve of crisis management. They could be doing more in order to prepare for future crises better by learning from this experience. The situation is then still on-going in the autumn 2015 both in Ukraine and within Valio.

Corporate Entrepreneurship in Healthcare Organizations: An explorative study of employees’ corporate entrepreneurial behavior, job satisfaction and turnover intention

The Finnish healthcare industry is currently facing significant challenges due to economic crises, aging population and major structural reforms, which have resulted in decreased job satisfaction and increased levels of turnover. This proposes that healthcare organizations need to come up with new, creative means to tackle these issues. Several researchers have argued that corporate entrepreneurship may be the necessary means to achieve this. As previous research has mainly focused on examining this concept from organizational perspective, this study looks at how it occurs on the level of individual employees. The purpose of this study is to examine how corporate entrepreneurship is manifested in individual behavior, and how this type of behavior is associated with the individual’s job satisfaction and turnover intention. Additionally, this study will examine the differences in corporate entrepreneurial behavior between private and public sector organizations, as previous research suggests that these two may be characterized differently. Data was collected with the help of a literature review as well as a survey study, which was sent out to a number of employees of four different healthcare organizations, out of which three were public and one was a private sector organization. Six distinct behavioral characteristics were recognized in previous research, which make up the measure for corporate entrepreneurial behavior. Principal components were formed from the different areas of the survey (corporate entrepreneurial behavior, job satisfaction, turnover intention), after which the association of these components were examined with linear regression analysis, which proved that corporate entrepreneurial behavior is positively correlated with both job satisfaction and intention to leave the organization. Differences between sectors were analyzed with analysis of variance and cross tabulation analysis, but neither of these suggested that any significant differences would occur. These results suggest that employees who behave entrepreneurially tend to be more satisfied with their jobs, but also consider leaving their current organizations more often than others. This may be due to the fact that healthcare organizations are not fertile for entrepreneurial behavior, which will drive entrepreneurial individuals looking for employers who may be more supportive of this type of behavior. With growing levels of dissatisfaction as well as little room for entrepreneurial behavior, the studied organizations may actually be in the process of losing those employees who have the ability and desire to behave in such manner, and who could very well be those who will eventually come up with solutions for the major challenges that these organizations are facing.

Suomen laskusuhdanteiden vertailu: 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin vaikutukset kuluttajille

Suomessa merkittävimpiä talouden laskusuhdanteita ja talouskriisejä ovat sotien jälkeen olleet 1990-luvun alun lama sekä vuonna 2008 alkanut finanssikriisin jälkeinen taantuma. Näillä kahdella ilmiöllä on ollut laajalti vaikutuksia koko kansantalouteemme, ja luonnollisesti suomalaisten kuluttajien taloudellinen hyvinvointi on muuttunut ilmiöiden myötä. Yksilöiden aiempaa huonompi taloudellinen hyvinvointi laskusuhdanteissa aiheutuu laskeneista tuloista, työttömyydestä ja varallisuushintojen laskusta sekä edellä mainittujen seurauksista. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on analysoida ja vertailla 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin aiheuttamia taloudellisia vaikutuksia suomalaisille kuluttajille. Lisäksi tarkoituksena on selvittää, minkä eri tekijöiden kautta laskusuhdanteet vaikuttavat kuluttajiin ja miksi. Tutkielman empiirisessä osiossa käytetään pääasiassa Tilastokeskuksen tuottamaa kvantitatiivista materiaalia sekä analyysin rikastamiseksi erilaisia kvalitatiivisia tutkimustuloksia aiheesta. Tutkielman lopputuloksena voidaan todeta 1990-luvun laman vaikuttaneen suomalaisiin kuluttajiin voimakkaammin ja pitkäkestoisemmin kuin finanssikriisin aiheuttaman taantuman. Laman vaikutukset kestivät useita vuosia, ja palautuminen oli hidasta. Erityisen suureksi ongelmaksi nousi työttömyyden voimakas kasvu. Finanssikriisin myötä työttömyys reagoi bruttokansantuotteen laskuun nähden sen sijaan maltillisesti, eivätkä esimerkiksi kotitalouksien tulot laskeneet samalla tavalla kuin laman aikana. Lisäksi merkittävässä osassa 1990-luvun lamaa oli asuntomarkkinoiden hintakupla ja sen puhkeaminen, jolla oli voimakas vaikutus reaalitalouteen. Laskukausien toisistaan poikkeavat vaikutukset johtuvat pitkälti niiden syntyyn johtaneiden syiden eroista sekä valtion talouspoliittisista toimista laskukausien helpottamiseksi. Siinä missä 1990-luvun lama johtui pääasiassa Suomen sisäisistä poliittisista päätöksistä ja pankkisektorista, oli finanssikriisi Suomen ulkopuolinen globaalin rahoitusmarkkinoiden häiriö.

National energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada in the 1970s and 1980s: are economic and/or environmental concerns responsible for change?

The thesis presents a comparison of the national energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada from 1973 until the late 1980s. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether economic and/or environmental concerns were responsible for changes in the· West-German and Canadian national energy policies. Furthermore, the feasibility of implementing a soft energy path in West-Germany and Canada is examined. For better comprehension of the policy-making process and implemented changes in the national energy policies of the two states, the West-German and Canadian parliamentary systems and the political cultures were compared. For the analysis, several events with international impact were taken as guidelines. Furthermore, based on statistical data, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption were analyzed. With reference to these results the degree of the de facto changes in the national energy policies were analyzed. In addition, the thesis discusses the possibilities which a soft energy path offers to both national governments to renounce themselves from the dependencies on a few energy resources. The thesis reveals that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies, in their energy production and consumption are correlated to various world events. In particular, governmental reponses security of energy supply by the two international oil crises of 1973 and 1979/1980 demonstrate that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies were implemented in reaction to economic concerns than environmental ones. With the policies "away from oil" and "off oil", the West-German and Canadian government implemented the i i substitution of oil through various diverse energy supply resources. However, energy savings concepts and policies were initiated through the first oil crisis in 1973. The world recessions in 1975 and 1982 had no 'profound impacts on the agenda of West-German and Canadian energy policies. As a consequence of the stagnation or the negative growth of the world economic market, changes in their energy production and consumption can be perceived. However, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption intensified with the augmentation of the world economy. During the period of study, environmental concerns were taken into account in the energy policy agendas of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada but they were not of primary concern. wi thin the decade of. the 1980s notably more environmental considerations were taken into account in the energy policies of the two states. The two nuclear reactor accidents in 1979 and 1986 sharpened to various degrees West-German and Canadian public discourse of present energy supply mix and attitude towards energy production and consumption. The statistical data reflects yet no changes in the energy policies in regard to the position of nuclear power. However, in the next several years possible changes can be observed through statistical data, because the planning, the construction and possible phase out of nuclear power requires several years. Finally, the thesis reveals that the implementation of a soft energy path requires profound changes in the consumer behaviour. As several studies indicate, a soft energy path is technological and economically feasible for the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada, its implementation remains to be a political decision.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Impact du genre et du modèle sur les mécanismes d’épileptogénèse dans le cerveau immature

Les modèles kainate et pentylènetétrazole représentent deux modèles d’épilepsie du lobe temporal dont les conséquences à long terme sont différentes. Le premier est un modèle classique d’épileptogénèse avec crises récurrentes spontanées tandis que le second se limite aux crises aigües. Nous avons d’abord caractérisé les différents changements survenant dans les circuits excitateurs et inhibiteurs de l’hippocampe adulte de rats ayant subi des crises à l’âge immature. Ensuite, ayant observé dans le modèle fébrile une différence du pronostic lié au genre, nous avons voulu savoir si cette différence était aussi présente dans des modèles utilisant des neurotoxines. L’étude électrophysiologique a démontré que les rats KA et PTZ, mâles comme femelles, présentaient une hyperactivité des récepteurs NMDA au niveau des cellules pyramidales du CA1, CA3 et DG. Les modifications anatomiques sous-tendant cette hyperexcitabilité ont été étudiées et les résultats ont montré une perte sélective des interneurones GABAergiques contenant la parvalbumine dans les couches O/A du CA1 des mâles KA et PTZ. Chez les femelles, seul le DG était légèrement affecté pour les PTZ tandis que les KA présentaient, en plus du DG, des pertes importantes au niveau de la couche O/A. Les évaluations cognitives ont démontré que seuls les rats PTZ accusaient un déficit spatial puisque les rats KA présentaient un apprentissage comparable aux rats normaux. Cependant, encore une fois, cette différence n’était présente que chez les mâles. Ainsi, nos résultats confirment qu’il y a des différences liées au genre dans les conséquences des convulsions lorsqu’elles surviennent chez l’animal immature.

Politics in extraordinary times : a study of the reaction of political parties and elites to terrorism

Cette thèse porte sur le comportement des élites politiques durant les périodes de crise nationale et plus particulièrement sur leurs réactions aux attentats terroristes. Elle démontre que les crises terroristes sont tout comme les conflits militaires ou diplomatiques propices aux unions nationales et notamment aux ralliements des partis d’opposition auprès du gouvernement. L’analyse statistique d’actes terroristes s’étant produits dans cinq états démocratiques (Allemagne, Espagne, États-Unis d’Amérique, France et Royaume-Uni) entre 1990 et 2006 révèle que l’ampleur d’un attentat en termes de pertes humaines ainsi que la répétition de ces attentats influencent dans une large mesure la réaction des élites politiques. Ainsi plus l’ampleur d’un attentat est élevée, plus la probabilité d’un ralliement est grande. En revanche, la multiplication des attentats augmente la possibilité de dissension entre l’opposition et le gouvernement. Par ailleurs, l’opposition est plus susceptible de se rallier au gouvernement lorsque l’attentat est perpétré par des terroristes provenant de l’étranger. L’analyse quantitative indique également que l’existence d’un accord formel de coopération dans la lutte antiterroriste entre le gouvernement et l’opposition favorise l’union des élites. Enfin, les données analysées suggèrent que la proportion des ralliements dans les cinq pays est plus importante depuis les attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Une analyse qualitative portant exclusivement sur la France et couvrant la période 1980-2006 confirme la validité des variables identifiées dans la partie quantitative, mais suggère que les élites réagissent au nombre total de victimes (morts mais aussi blessés) et que la répétition des actes terroristes a moins d’impact lors des vagues d’attentats. Par ailleurs, les analyses de cas confirment que les élites politiques françaises sont plus susceptibles de se rallier quand un attentat vise un haut-fonctionnaire de l’État. Il apparaît également que les rivalités et rancœurs politiques propre à la France (notamment suite à l’arrivée de la gauche au pouvoir en 1981) ont parfois empêché le ralliement des élites. Enfin, cette analyse qualitative révèle que si l’extrême gauche française soutient généralement le gouvernement, qu’il soit de gauche ou de droite, en période de crise terroriste, l’extrême droite en revanche saisit quasi systématiquement l’opportunité offerte par l’acte terroriste pour critiquer le gouvernement ainsi que les partis de l’establishment. La thèse est divisée en sept chapitres. Le premier chapitre suggère que le comportement des élites politiques en période de crises internationales graves (guerres et conflits diplomatiques) est souvent influencé par la raison d’État et non par l’intérêt électoral qui prédomine lors des périodes plus paisibles. Le second chapitre discute du phénomène terroriste et de la littérature afférente. Le troisième chapitre analyse les causes du phénomène d’union nationale, soumet un cadre pour l’analyse de la réaction des élites aux actes terroristes, et présente une série d’hypothèses. Le quatrième chapitre détaille la méthodologie utilisée au cours de cette recherche. Les chapitres cinq et six présentent respectivement les résultats des analyses quantitatives et qualitatives. Enfin, le chapitre sept conclut cette thèse en résumant la contribution de l’auteur et en suggérant des pistes de recherche.