Racionális és intuitív döntéshozók Kaliforniában és Magyarországon (Analysis or Intuition – Strategic decision making in California and Hungary)

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felső vezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében a szerző negyven felső vezetőt kérdezett meg két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felső vezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján 2) Mennyiben különböznek – ha egyáltalán különböznek – a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsmentképességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsmentkultúrákban? ______ Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

Vezetői döntéshozatal és versenyképesség (The managerial decision making and the competitiveness)

A tanulmány a vezetői döntéshozatal három lényeges aspektusát tárja fel. A Versenyben a világgal c. kutatási program eredményei alapján arra lehet következtetni, hogy a menedzserek döntéshozatali képességei és megközelítései, a vállalati teljesítménymérés és menedzsment döntéseket támogató szerepe, valamint a vállalatok érintettekhez fűződő viszonya meghatározó lehet a hatékony vezetői döntéshozatal során. A vállalati döntéshozatal jellemzőinek bemutatása után megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy a különböző teljesítményű cégek döntéseit mennyire támogatja a menedzserek felkészültsége, a teljesítménymérési gyakorlat és az érintettek elvárásai. A szerzők úgy találták, hogy a fenti tényezők mindegyike hozzájárul a hazai cégek versenyképességéhez, általánosságban ugyanis elmondható, hogy a döntéseket támogató vállalati környezet jobb üzleti teljesítményhez és gyorsabb reagálóképességhez vezethet. Az eredmények összegzése mellett ajánlásokkal is éltek a vállalatok számára, amelyek alkalmazásával hatékonyabb döntéseket hozhatnak. _______ This study presents three main aspects of the managerial decision making. Based on the results of the research program In competition with the World it points to the fact that decision making abilities and approaches of the managers, the corporate performance appraisal and the management decision support role, and the corporate relations to the stakeholders will be determinant in the process of the efficient managerial decision making. After presentation of characteristics of the corporate decision making the authors examine that how the decisions of enterprises with different performances are supported by the preparedness of the managers, the performance appraisal practice and the stakeholders expectations. The authors have thought that every factor contributes to the competitiveness of the domestic enterprises, and generally the decision supporting corporate environment can lead to better business performance and faster responsive abilities. Besides the results summary the authors give useful recommendations to the corporations with which they can make more efficient decisions.

Analysis and intuition in strategic decision making. The case of California

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made notably are absent. (Fredrickson, 1985) This paper reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision making circumstances focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decision making procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright Research Scholarship Grant.

Ethical decision making

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontological, goal-achievement and stakeholder values. The ethical decision-maker can be characterized as having the ability to take multiple perspectives and make appropriate balance across diverse value dimensions. Modern organizations should develop a critical sensitivity to and empathy toward human and non-human beings with which they share a common environment.

Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztás példáján (Adaptive decision-making on example of the supplier selection)

Ez a tanulmány a projektvezetési szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem előtt tartva (noha tételesen nem hivatkozva arra) tárja fel azt a sajátos és tipikusnak nevezhető kontextust, amelyben a projektalapú szervezetek projektmarketing tevékenysége megnyilvánul. A tanulmány célja tehát nem magának a projektmarketingnek a kérdéskörére irányul, hanem elsősorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusára. Jellegét illetően a tanulmány spekulatív jellegű, vagyis lényegét tekintve nem empirikus kutatási eredményekből levont következtetésekre épül. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism – the metastructure and the attitude set –, the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.

Individual decision-making by top executives as a valuable resource for strategic management – A resource-based view and dynamic capability approach

Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in today’s business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.

Effects of inconsistencies in eyewitness testimony on mock-juror decision-making

In attempting to impeach eyewitnesses, attorneys often highlight inconsistencies in the eyewitness's recall. This study examined the differential impact of types of inconsistent testimony on mock-juror decisions. Each of 100 community members and 200 undergraduates viewed one of four versions of a videotaped trial in which the primary evidence against the defendant was the testimony of the eyewitness. I manipulated the types of inconsistent statements given by the eyewitness in the four versions: (1) consistent testimony, (2) information given on-the-stand but not given during the pre-trial investigation, (3) contradictions between on-the-stand and pre-trial statements, and (4) contradictions made on the witness stand. Subjects exposed to any form of inconsistent testimony were less likely to convict and found the defendant less culpable and the eyewitness less effective. These effects were larger for contradictions than for information given on the stand but not during pre-trial investigations. ^

The role of exploration and critical decision making and problem solving in making life choices

Although the literature on the types of abilities and processes that contribute to identity formation has been growing, the research has been mainly descriptive/correlational. This dissertation conducted an experimental investigation of the role of two theoretically distinct processes (exploration and critical problem solving) in identity formation, one of the first to be reported. The experimental training design (pre-post, training versus control) used in this study was intended to promote identity development by fostering an increase in the use of exploration and critical problem solving with respect to making life choices. Participants included 53 psychology students from a large urban university randomly assigned to each group. The most theoretically significant finding was that the intervention was successful in inducing change in the ability to use critical skills in resolving life decisions, as well as effecting a positive change in identity status. ^

The National Institute of Justice guide for eyewitness identification evidence: Can it improve juror decision-making?

Mistaken eyewitness identifications of innocent lead to more false convictions in the United States than any other cause. In response to concerns about the reliability of eyewitness evidence, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) in 1999 published a Guide for the gathering and preservation of eyewitness evidence by law enforcement personnel. Previous research has shown that eyewitness identifications are more accurate when obtained using procedures recommended in the NIJ Guide. This experiment assessed whether informing jurors about the Guide can improve their ability to discriminate between eyewitness identifications likely to be accurate and those likely to be inaccurate and, if so, how to most effectively provide jurors with such information. ^ Seven hundred sixteen U.S. citizens who reported for criminal jury duty participated. Half of the participant jurors read a summary of an armed robbery trial in which the police followed the NIJ Guide when obtaining an eyewitness identification of the defendant. The other half read about an identical case in which the police did not follow the Guide. Jurors received information about the Guide from a court-appointed expert witness, one of the attorneys in the case, the trial judge, the judge in combination with one of the attorneys, or from no one (in the control groups). Jurors then rendered a verdict in the case and answered questions about the evidence in the case. ^ When an expert witness or the judge (either alone or in combination with one of the attorneys) informed jurors about the Guide, the jurors voted to convict defendants likely to be guilty and to acquit defendants likely to be innocent more often than did uninformed jurors assigned to a control group. These data suggest that informing jurors about the NIJ Guide using expert testimony or instructions from a judge will improve the quality and accuracy of jurors' verdict decisions in cases involving eyewitness identification evidence. However, more research is needed to determine whether the judge will remain an effective source of information about the Guide in a longer, more detailed trial scenario and to learn more about the underlying psychological processes governing the effects observed in this experiment. ^

Improving civil jury decision-making: Evidentiary and procedural issues

The civil jury has been under attack in recent years for being unreliable and incompetent. Considering the myriad causes for poor civil juror decision-making, the current investigation explores both procedural and evidentiary issues that impact juror's decisions. Specifically, the first phase of this dissertation examines how jurors (mis)use evidence pertaining to the litigants when determining liability and awarding damages. After investigating how jurors utilize evidence, the focus shifts to exploring the utility of procedural reforms designed to improve decision-making (specifically revising the instructions on the laws in the case and bifurcating the damage phases of the trial). Using the results from the first two phases of the research, the final study involves manipulating pieces of evidence related to the litigants while exploring the effects that revising the judicial instructions have on the utilization of evidence in particular and on decision-making in general. ^ This dissertation was run on-line, allowing participants to access the study materials at their convenience. After giving consent, participants read the scenario of a fictitious product liability case with the litigant manipulations incorporated into the summary. Participants answered several attitudinal, case-specific, and comprehension questions, and were instructed to find in favor of one side and award any damages they felt warranted. Exploratory factor analyses, Probit and linear regressions, and path analyses were used to analyze the data (M-plus and SPSS were the software packages used to conduct the analyses). Results indicated that misuse of evidence was fairly frequent, though the mock jurors also utilized evidence appropriately. Although the results did not support bifurcation as a viable procedural reform, revising the judicial instructions did significantly increase comprehension rates. Trends in the data suggested that better decision-making occurred when the revised instructions were used, thus providing empirical support for this procedural reform as a means of improving civil jury decision-making. Implications for actual trials and attorneys are discussed. ^

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Jury decision making and the Story Model: How do deliberation style and evidence order influence the story that juries create?

This study investigated the utility of the Story Model for decision making at the jury level by examining the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on story consistency and guilt. Participants were shown a video-taped trial stimulus and then provided case perceptions including a guilt judgment and a narrative about what occurred during the incident. Participants then deliberated for approximately thirty minutes using either an evidence-driven or verdict-driven deliberation style before again providing case perceptions, including a guilt determination, a narrative about what happened during the incident, and an evidence recognition test. Multi-level regression analyses revealed that evidence order, deliberation style and sample interacted to influence both story consistency measures and guilt. Among students, participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution presented their case in story-order, while participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order. Findings were the opposite among community members, with participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order, and participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution's case was presented in story-order. Additionally several story consistency measures influenced guilt decisions. Thus there is some support for the hypothesis that story consistency mediates the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on guilt decisions.

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

A fresh look at decision making in international investment choices: Firm international coherence and home-host country relatedness

Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firm’s performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are ‘close’ to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNE’s network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.