Strategic manipulation of empirical tests

Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.

Modificações introduzidas pelos treinamentos cardiopulmonar e neuromuscular nos níveis séricos basais de fatores de crescimento insulina símile i (igf-1), cortisol, autonomia funcional e qualidade de vida de mulheres idosas

Changes introduced by cardiopulmonar and neuromuscular training on basal serum insulin-like grow factor-1 (IGF-1) and cortisol levels, functional autonomy and quality of life in elderly women The aim of this study was to compare the effects of strength and aerobic training on basal serum IGF-1 and Cortisol levels, functional autonomy (FA) and quality of life (QoL) in elderly women after 12 weeks of training. The subjects were submitted the strength training (75-85% 1-RM) with weight exercises (SG; n=12; age=66.08 ± 3,37 years; BMI=26,77 ± 3,72 kg/m2), aerobic training with aquatic exercises (AG; n=13; age=68,69 ± 4,70 years; BMI=29,19 ± 2,96 kg/m2) and control group (CG; n=10; age=68,80 ± 5,41 years; BMI=29,70 ± 2,82 kg/m2). Fasting blood was analyzed to measure basal IGF-1 and cortisol levels by chemiluminescence method. The t-Student test showed increased IGF-1 in the SG (p<0.05) for intragroup comparison. The Repeated-measure ANOVA presented increased IGF-1 (p<0.05) in the SG compared to the other two groups. There were no differences in cortisol levels. All the FA tests (GDLAM autonomy protocol) presented decreased significant in the time marked in seconds to the SG. The same results were found in the AG, except in the rise from a sitting position test. The autonomy index presented significant improvements (p<0.05) in the SG related to the AG and CG and in the AG to the CG. The SG showed increased QoL (p<0.05) (by WHOQOL-Old questionnaire) in the facet 1 (sensorial functioning) and facet 5 (death and dying). Thus, the SG obtained positive changes on IGF-1 and FA levels when compared to the AG. This suggests that strength training can indicated to decrease the effects of ageing.

Avaliação de técnicas de defumação para mexilhão Perna perna: análise sensorial e rendimento

The objective of the present work was evaluate two techniques of smoking, the hot traditional and with use of smoke natural aroma or "liquid smoke", having as control Perna perna mussels vapor cooked. Sensorial characteristics were appraised (appearance, color, aroma, texture, flavor and salt tenor) and yield processing. The experimental design was completely randomized with three treatments (T1 = smoked with liquid smoke; T2 = traditional smoked and T3 = just cooked, control), with nine repetitions. For sensorial analysis 30 people were used, where each one was considered a block. There was significant difference for processing performance among treatments (P<0.05), however there was not significant difference independent of smoked technique applied. Nevertheless, smoking technique using smoke natural aroma was more attractive, presenting better results with relationship to sensorial characteristics and final product packaged for commercialization.

Minimizing inter-genotypic competition effects to predict genetic values and selection in forestry genetic tests

The effect of competition is an important source of variation in breeding experiments. This study aimed to compare the selection of plants of open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus with and without the use of competition covariables. Genetic values were determined for each family and tree and for the traits height, diameter at breast height and timber volume in a randomized block design, resulting in the variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective size and selection coincidence, with and without the use of covariables. Intergenotypic competition is an important factor of environmental variation. The use of competition covariables generally reduces the estimates of variance components and influences genetic gains in the studied traits. Intergenotypic competition biases the selection of open-pollinated eucalypt progenies, and can result in an erroneous choice of superior genotypes; the inclusion of covariables in the model reduces this influence.

The intravenous glucose tolerance and postprandial glucose tests may present different responses in the evaluation of obese dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Característica físico-química e sensorial de geleia elaborada com polpa e suco de acerola

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo da topologia de redes de conexão funcional no córtex sensorial primário e hipocampo durante o sono de ondas lentas

Complex network analysis is a powerful tool into research of complex systems like brain networks. This work aims to describe the topological changes in neural functional connectivity networks of neocortex and hippocampus during slow-wave sleep (SWS) in animals submited to a novel experience exposure. Slow-wave sleep is an important sleep stage where occurs reverberations of electrical activities patterns of wakeness, playing a fundamental role in memory consolidation. Although its importance there s a lack of studies that characterize the topological dynamical of functional connectivity networks during that sleep stage. There s no studies that describe the topological modifications that novel exposure leads to this networks. We have observed that several topological properties have been modified after novel exposure and this modification remains for a long time. Major part of this changes in topological properties by novel exposure are related to fault tolerance

Estudo da desidratação de tomates em pedaços com pré-tratamento osmótico

Vegetables drying plays an important role in the field of food dehydration, being a very old practice that was originated from sun drying items of food in order to preserve them to be consumed during the periods of scarcity. One of these vegetables is the tomato, that was originally grown in South America. Tomatoes are easily perishable after being picked up from the tree and this makes the process of tomato dehydration a challenge due to the high amount of water (95%) contained in them. The present research work was mainly intended to develop alternative processes for tomato conservation, by drying slices of skinned and unskinned tomatoes in the in natura form or in the osmotically pre-dehydrated form. Firstly, the best conditions of the osmotic pre-dehydration process were defined including temperature, immersion time and concentration of the osmotic solution, based on the results of water loss, solids gain and weigh reduction of the pre-dehydration tomatoes at different processing conditions. The osmotic solution used was made up of NaCl (5 and 10%) and sucrose (25 and 35%) at different combinations. For a fixed conditions of osmotic pre-dehydration, the drying tests of the pre-processed and in natura tomatoes were carried out in a stove with air circulation and a convective dryer with trays, at two levels of temperature. The sensorial analysis of the osmotically pre-treated and unskinned dehydrated tomatoes was carried out as well as a study on the their shelf-live. The results obtained showed that the drying of the tomatoes took place as a result of the internal control of the water transport, and did not show a constant rate, while two distinct periods of the decreasing phase were observed. The osmotic pre treatment substancially reduced the initial amount of humidity in the tomatoes, thus reducing the necessary time for the product to attain levels of intermediate humidity. The impermeability of the tomato skin was identified as well as the unfavorable influence of the pre-treatment on the unskinned tomatoes, whose solid gain brought about a decrease in the water activity with subsequent reduction of the drying rate. Despite the various simplifications carried out during the development of this study, the proposed diffusive model adjusted to the experimental data satisfactorily, thus making it possible to determine the effective coefficients of diffusion, whose results were consistent and compatible with those found in the current literature. Concerning the higher rates of evaporation and the lowest processing time, the best results were obtained in the drying of the unskinned, in natura tomatoes and of the skinned, pre-dehydrated tomatoes, at 60ºC, both processed in the convective drier. The results of the sensorial analysis of the unskinned and pre-treated product did not prove to be satisfactory. Regarding the shelf-live of the tomatoes, for a period of 45 days, no physicochemical or microbiological alteration of the product was noted

Caracterização físico-química, reológica e sensorial de iogurte obtido pela mistura dos leites bubalino e caprino

Milk from different animals can be used for dairy production. Yoghurt is a popular fermented milk product and considered to be one of the greatest importance in terms of consumer acceptance and consumption. The present research deals with the production of strawberry set-type yoghurt by mixing goat and buffalo s milk and it has the objective of taking advantage of the intrinsic characteristics of each milk to produce a final product with desirable attributes. It was conducted by analyzing five experimental groups with different proportions of goat and buffalo s milk: C 100% goat s milk; 7C3B - 70% goat s milk and 30% buffalo s milk, 5C5B - 50% goat s milk and 50% buffalo s milk, 3C7B 30% goat s milk and 70% buffalo s milk; B - 100% buffalo s milk. Each group was evaluated for total solids content and the acidification profile was monitored every 30 minutes by pH analysis. The yoghurt samples were analyzed for physical-chemical (pH, acidity, protein, fat, total and reducing sugars, ash and total solids), rheological (syneresis and viscosity) and sensory characteristics (appearance, odor, consistency and flavour). Samples with higher percentual of bubaline milk reached Vm faster, but the time necessary for pH 4.6 (Te) were similar between groups. Statistical differences (p<0.05) were observed for fat and total solids content of yoghurt, with superior values for groups higher proportions of buffalo s milk. The parameters of behavior reached by the model of Ostwald of Waale pointed yoghurt samples as non-Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluids. Yoghurt made only with goat s milk (C) had higher values (p<0.05) for syneresis, which can be explained by its fragile coagulum. Additionally, this group also had the lowest sensory scores for the attributes consistence and taste, while bubaline yoghurt (B) obtained the best acceptance indexes for all of the appraised parameters

CHARACTERIZATION of RALSTONIA SOLANACEARUM STRAINS FROM BRAZIL USING MOLECULAR METHODS and PATHOGENICITY TESTS

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aspectos tecnológicos e sensoriais do iogurte de soja enriquecido com cálcio

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a viabilidade de enriquecimento do iogurtede soja com cálcio, para que o produto apresentasse níveis deste mineral equivalentes ou superiores aos encontrados nos iogurtes tradicionais e mantivesse as propriedades tecnológicas e sensoriais adequadas. Foram testados cinco sais: carbonato, citrato, fosfato, gliconato e lactato de cálcio, na concentração de 600mg de cálcio elementar/l. Os produtos foram avaliados quanto ao tempo de fermentação, pH, acidez titulável, viscosidade, consistência, concentração de cálcio e propriedades sensoriais (testes de diferença do controle e aceitação). A adição de cálcio ao iogurte de soja na forma de citrato, fosfato, carbonato, gliconato e lactato de cálcio, apesar de provocar alterações na acidez titulável, viscosidade e consistência, não conferiu propriedades sensoriais indesejáveis ao produto e o tempo de fermentação não excedeu aos verificados nos processos industriais convencionais. Desta forma todos os sais testados se mostraram viáveis para o processo de enriquecimento do iogurte de soja com cálcio.

TEORES DE ENXOFRE E ACEITABILIDADE DE AGUARDENTES DE CANA BRASILEIRAS

Considerando-se as indesejáveis características sensoriais dos compostos sulfurados e o papel negativo que podem representar na qualidade sensorial das aguardentes, foi realizado um estudo para verificar uma possível correlação entre os teores de enxofre presentes em amostras de aguardentes de cana e sua qualidade sensorial. Nesse sentido foram determinados os teores de enxofre de sete amostras de aguardentes de cana, sendo quatro adquiridas no comércio local, e três obtidas em laboratório, utilizando-se alambiques de cobre, de aço inoxidável e de alumínio. As amostras foram então submetidas a testes de aceitabilidade quanto ao aroma, sabor e impressão global, realizados por uma equipe de 30 provadores, em cabines individuais, utilizando-se escala hedônica de nove centímetros. Os resultados assim obtidos após serem submetidos à análise de variância, ao teste de médias de Tukey e à análise de regressão, revelaram haver correlação negativa significativa (p£ 0,05) entre os teores de enxofre e a aceitabilidade das amostras de aguardentes, em relação a todas as características avaliadas, ressaltando o papel negativo representado pelos compostos sulfurados presentes nas aguardentes de cana e indicando ser o método de Ni Raney uma possível opção a ser adotada no controle de qualidade das aguardentes de cana.

ANÁLISE DESCRITIVA QUANTITATIVA da AGUARDENTE DE CANA DURANTE O ENVELHECIMENTO em TONEL DE CARVALHO (Quercus alba L.)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)