Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matrix Method for Acoustic Levitation Simulation

A matrix method is presented for simulating acoustic levitators. A typical acoustic levitator consists of an ultrasonic transducer and a reflector. The matrix method is used to determine the potential for acoustic radiation force that acts on a small sphere in the standing wave field produced by the levitator. The method is based on the Rayleigh integral and it takes into account the multiple reflections that occur between the transducer and the reflector. The potential for acoustic radiation force obtained by the matrix method is validated by comparing the matrix method results with those obtained by the finite element method when using an axisymmetric model of a single-axis acoustic levitator. After validation, the method is applied in the simulation of a noncontact manipulation system consisting of two 37.9-kHz Langevin-type transducers and a plane reflector. The manipulation system allows control of the horizontal position of a small levitated sphere from -6 mm to 6 mm, which is done by changing the phase difference between the two transducers. The horizontal position of the sphere predicted by the matrix method agrees with the horizontal positions measured experimentally with a charge-coupled device camera. The main advantage of the matrix method is that it allows simulation of non-symmetric acoustic levitators without requiring much computational effort.

DEVELOPMENT OF A MICRO-HEAT EXCHANGER WITH STACKED PLATES USING LTCC TECHNOLOGY

A green ceramic tape micro-heat exchanger was developed using Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramics technology (LTCC). The device was designed by using Computational Aided Design software and simulations were made using a Computational Fluid Dynamics package (COMSOL Multiphysics) to evaluate the homogeneity of fluid distribution in the microchannels. Four geometries were proposed and simulated in two and three dimensions to show that geometric details directly affect the distribution of velocity in the micro-heat exchanger channels. The simulation results were quite useful for the design of the microfluidic device. The micro-heat exchanger was then constructed using the LTCC technology and is composed of five thermal exchange plates in cross-flow arrangement and two connecting plates, with all plates stacked to form a device with external dimensions of 26 x 26 x 6 mm(3).

DEVELOPMENT OF STATIC MIXERS FOR MISCIBLE FLUIDS IN LAMINAR FLOW WITH THE USE OF COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS (CFD)

Static mixers with improved performance were developed from CFD simulations in a stepwise approach. The relevant geometric features of simple mixer designs and the corresponding mixing mechanisms-laminar shear, elongational flow, and distributive mixing-were identified first. This information was used to formulate guidelines for the development of new geometries. The solid elements of the static mixer should: (a) provide restrictions to the flow; (b) deflect the flow; (c) be sequentially rotated around the flow direction to provide symmetry; (d) extend from the center of the pipe to the vicinity of the walls to avoid short-circuiting; and (e) distribute and remix the flow. Based on these guidelines, two improved mixer designs were developed: the DS A-I mixer has a good mixing efficiency and an acceptable pressure drop; the Fins 35 degrees mixer is more efficient and compact, but requires a larger pressure drop. Their performance indicates that their use is possible on industrial applications.

The effect of flow arrangement on the pressure drop of plate heat exchangers

For the optimal design of plate heat exchangers (PHEs), an accurate thermal-hydraulic model that takes into account the effect of the flow arrangement on the heat load and pressure drop is necessary. In the present study, the effect of the flow arrangement on the pressure drop of a PHE is investigated. Thirty two different arrangements were experimentally tested using a laboratory scale PHE with flat plates. The experimental data was used for (a) determination of an empirical correlation for the effect of the number of passes and number of flow channels per pass on the pressure drop; (b) validation of a friction factor model through parameter estimation; and (c) comparison with the simulation results obtained with a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model of the PHE. All three approaches resulted in a good agreement between experimental and predicted values of pressure drop. Moreover, the CFD model is used for evaluating the flow maldistribution in a PHE with two channels Per Pass. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed power control algorithm for multiple access systems based on Verhulst model

In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Phase-Locked Loop design applied to frequency-modulated atomic force microscope

The atomic force microscope (AFM) introduced the surface investigation with true atomic resolution. In the frequency modulation technique (FM-AFM) both the amplitude and the frequency of oscillation of the micro-cantilever must be kept constant even in the presence of tip-surface interaction forces. For that reason, the proper design of the Phase-Locked Loop (PLL) used in FM-AFM is vital to system performance. Here, the mathematical model of the FM-AFM control system is derived considering high order PLL In addition a method to design stable third-order Phase-Locked Loops is presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using bifurcations in the determination of lock-in ranges for third-order phase-locked loops

Transmission and switching in digital telecommunication networks require distribution of precise time signals among the nodes. Commercial systems usually adopt a master-slave (MS) clock distribution strategy building slave nodes with phase-locked loop (PLL) circuits. PLLs are responsible for synchronizing their local oscillations with signals from master nodes, providing reliable clocks in all nodes. The dynamics of a PLL is described by an ordinary nonlinear differential equation, with order one plus the order of its internal linear low-pass filter. Second-order loops are commonly used because their synchronous state is asymptotically stable and the lock-in range and design parameters are expressed by a linear equivalent system [Gardner FM. Phaselock techniques. New York: John Wiley & Sons: 1979]. In spite of being simple and robust, second-order PLLs frequently present double-frequency terms in PD output and it is very difficult to adapt a first-order filter in order to cut off these components [Piqueira JRC, Monteiro LHA. Considering second-harmonic terms in the operation of the phase detector for second order phase-locked loop. IEEE Trans Circuits Syst [2003;50(6):805-9; Piqueira JRC, Monteiro LHA. All-pole phase-locked loops: calculating lock-in range by using Evan`s root-locus. Int J Control 2006;79(7):822-9]. Consequently, higher-order filters are used, resulting in nonlinear loops with order greater than 2. Such systems, due to high order and nonlinear terms, depending on parameters combinations, can present some undesirable behaviors, resulting from bifurcations, as error oscillation and chaos, decreasing synchronization ranges. In this work, we consider a second-order Sallen-Key loop filter [van Valkenburg ME. Analog filter design. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston; 1982] implying a third order PLL The resulting lock-in range of the third-order PLL is determined by two bifurcation conditions: a saddle-node and a Hopf. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-linear modal analysis for beams subjected to axial loads: Analytical and finite-element solutions

A rigorous derivation of non-linear equations governing the dynamics of an axially loaded beam is given with a clear focus to develop robust low-dimensional models. Two important loading scenarios were considered, where a structure is subjected to a uniformly distributed axial and a thrust force. These loads are to mimic the main forces acting on an offshore riser, for which an analytical methodology has been developed and applied. In particular, non-linear normal modes (NNMs) and non-linear multi-modes (NMMs) have been constructed by using the method of multiple scales. This is to effectively analyse the transversal vibration responses by monitoring the modal responses and mode interactions. The developed analytical models have been crosschecked against the results from FEM simulation. The FEM model having 26 elements and 77 degrees-of-freedom gave similar results as the low-dimensional (one degree-of-freedom) non-linear oscillator, which was developed by constructing a so-called invariant manifold. The comparisons of the dynamical responses were made in terms of time histories, phase portraits and mode shapes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondonia, Brazil

In Rondonia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km 2 of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondonia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of natural epizootics of the fungal pathogen Neozygites floridana (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) on population dynamics of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) in tomato and nightshade

The tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) was recently introduced in Africa and Europe, where there is an increasing interest in using natural enemies to control this pest on solanaceous crops. Two promising candidates for the control of T. evansi were identified in South America, the fungal pathogen, Neozygites floridana and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus longipes. In this study, population dynamics of T. evansi and its natural enemies together with the influence of environmental conditions on these organisms were evaluated during four crop cycles in the field and in a protected environment on nightshade and tomato plants with and without application of chemical pesticides. N. floridana was the only natural enemy found associated with T. evansi in the four crop cycles under protected environment but only in the last crop cycle in the field. In the treatments where the fungus appeared, reduction of mite populations was drastic. N. floridana appeared in tomato plants even when the population density of T. evansi was relatively low (less than 10 mites/3.14 cm(2) of leaf area) and even at this low population density, the fungus maintained infection rates greater than 50%. The application of pesticides directly affected the fungus by delaying epizootic initiation and contributing to lower infection rates than unsprayed treatments. Rainfalls did not have an apparent impact on mite populations. These results indicate that the pathogenic fungus, N. floridana can play a significant role in the population dynamics of T. evansi, especially under protected environment, and has the potential to control this pest in classical biological control programs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability. The mathematical model to predict the forage yield using photothennal units was utilized with success in Elephant grass, Thanzania and Brachiaria niziziensis in the absence of water stress and nitrogen stress. The aim of this study was to propose models to estimate the forage yield of Thanzania grass under different irrigation (25, 50,75, 100 e 125% of ETc) and nitrogen level in various regions of Brazil. As such, models were developed to estimate the dry matter production of Panicum maximum Jacq. frass cv Thanzania in different irrigation and nitrogen levels, using photothermal units. The models were adjusted to doses of 0, 30, 60, 110 and 270 kg of N ha(-1), doses were divided in applications after each evaluation, with a rest cycle of 35 days. The adjusted model presented good performance in predicting dry matter production of Thanzania grass, with r(2) = 0.9999. The results made it possible to verify that the proposed model can be used to predict forage production in different regions of Brazil. It can be estimated, with good precision. The production of Thanzania grass dry matter can be accurately estimated in specific places (in function of latitude and time of year), with the maximum and minimum temperature values.

Nitrogen and Sulfur Fertilization and Dynamics in a Brazilian Entisol under Pasture

Nutrient dynamics in tropical soils sustaining forage grasses are still poorly understood. We conducted a study to evaluate the effect of combined N and S fertilizer rates on the growth of `Marandu` palisade grass [Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf], uptake of these elements from the soil by plants, soil organic matter concentration, soil pH, and the mineral and organic fractions of N and S in an Entisol. Combinations of five N rates (0, 100, 200, 300, and 400 g N m(-3)) with five S rates (0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 g S m(-3)) were evaluated in a partial 5 x 5 factorial in a pot experiment, with and without plants. Nitrogen and S were supplied as NH(4)NO(3) and CaSO(4)center dot 2H(2)O, respectively. The N addition in excess did not enhance the palisade grass production due to low plant-available Sin the soil. The supply of low rates of S with N greatly improved the overall N uptake efficiency by the forage plant. The contents of total N, NO(3)(-)-N, and NH(4)(+)-N in the soil varied with N rate and with N uptake by the plants. The association of palisade grass with S fertilization increased the ester-bonded S fraction in the soil. The results suggest that soil residual S could be a potential source of S for plants. Proper N and S fertilizer rates promoted increased grass production due to increased uptake of these nutrients and the dynamics of the organic N and S fractions and mineral fractions in this tropical soil.