Modelling congenital transmission of Chagas` disease

The successful elimination of vectorial and transfusional transmission of Chagas` disease from some countries is a result of the reduction of domestic density of the primary vector Triatoma infestans, of almost 100% of coverage in blood serological selection and to the fact that the basic reproductive number of Chagas` disease is very close to one (1.25). Therefore, congenital transmission is currently the only way of acquiring Chagas` Disease in such regions. In this paper we propose a model of congenital transmission of Chagas` disease. Its aim is to provide an estimation of the time period it will take to eliminate this form of transmission in regions where vetorial transmission was reduced to close to zero, like in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Lymph Node Involvement and Not the Histophatologic Subtype Is Correlated with Outcome After Resection of Adenocarcinoma of the Ampulla of Vater

Background Intestinal and pancreaticobiliary types of Vater`s ampulla adenocarcinoma have been considered as having different biologic behavior and prognosis. The aim of the present study was to determine the best immunohistochemical panel for tumor classification and to analyze the survival of patients having these histological types of adenocarcinoma. Method Ninety-seven resected ampullary adenocarcinomas were histologically classified, and the prognosis factors were analyzed. The expression of MUC1, MUC2, MUC5AC, MUC6, CK7, CK17, CK20, CD10, and CDX2 was evaluated by using immunohistochemistry. Results Forty-three Vater`s ampulla carcinomas were histologically classified as intestinal type, 47 as pancreaticobiliary, and seven as other types. The intestinal type had a significantly higher expression of MUC2 (74.4% vs. 23.4%), CK20 (76.7% vs. 29.8%), CDX2 (86% vs. 21.3%), and CD10 (81.4% vs. 51.1%), while MUC1 (53.5% vs. 82.9%) and CK7 (79.1% vs. 95.7%) were higher in pancreatobiliary adenocarcinomas. The most accurate markers for immunohistochemical classification were CDX2, MUC1, and MUC2. Survival was significantly affected by pancreaticobiliary type (p=0.021), but only lymph node metastasis, lymphatic invasion, and stage were independent risk factors for survival in a multivariate analysis. Conclusion The immunohistochemical expression of CDX2, MUC1, and MUC2 allows a reproducible classification of ampullary carcinomas. Although carcinomas of the intestinal type showed better survival in the univariate analysis, neither histological classification nor immunohistochemistry were independent predictors of poor prognosis.

Combination of Multiple Molecular Markers Can Improve Prognostication in Patients With Locally Advanced and Lymph Node Positive Bladder Cancer

Purpose: We tested whether the combination of 4 established cell cycle regulators (p53, pRB, p21 and p27) could improve the ability to predict clinical outcomes in a large multi-institutional collaboration of patients with pT3-4N0 or pTany Npositive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. We also assessed whether the combination of molecular markers is superior to any individual biomarker. Materials and Methods: The study comprised 692 patients with pT3-4N0 or pTany Npositive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder treated with radical cystectomy and bilateral lymphadenectomy (median followup 5.3 years). Scoring was performed using advanced cell imaging and color detection software. The base model incorporated patient age, gender, stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion, number of lymph nodes removed, number of positive lymph nodes, concomitant carcinoma in situ and adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Individual molecular markers did not improve the predictive accuracy for disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality. Combination of all 4 molecular markers into number of altered molecular markers resulted in significantly 1 higher predictive accuracy than any single biomarker (p < 0.001.). Moreover addition of number of altered molecular markers to the base model significantly improved the predictive accuracy for disease recurrence (3.9%, p < 0.001) and cancer specific mortality (4.3%, p < 0.001). Addition of number of altered molecular markers retained statistical significance for improving the prediction of clinical outcomes in the subgroup of patients with pT3N0 (280), pT4N0 (83) and pTany Npositive (329) disease (p < 0.001). Conclusions: While the status of individual molecular markers does not add sufficient value to outcome prediction in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma of the bladder, combinations of molecular markers may improve molecular staging, prognostication and possibly prediction of response to therapy.