Wykorzystanie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych w naukach społecznych. Wybrane problemy

Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

Criminalidade, Insegurança e Controlo Social Formal

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa, como parte dos requisitos necessários para a obtenção do grau Mestre em Criminologia

A new world a new American foreign policy: the Carter administration, Nicaragua, and the legacy of the Vietnam War, 1977-1981

The impact of the Vietnam War conditioned the Carter administration’s response to the Nicaraguan revolution in ways that reduced US engagement with both sides of the conflict. It made the countries of Latin America counter the US approach and find their own solution to the crisis, and allowed Cuba to play a greater role in guiding the overthrow of Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle. This thesis re-evaluates Carter’s policy through the legacy of the Vietnam War, because US executive anxieties about military intervention, Congress’s increasing influence, and US public concerns about the nation’s global responsibilities, shaped the Carter approach to Nicaragua. Following a background chapter, the Carter administration’s policy towards Nicaragua is evaluated, before and after the fall of Somoza in July 1979. The extent of the Vietnam influence on US-Nicaraguan relations is developed by researching government documents on the formation of US policy, including material from the Jimmy Carter Library, the Library of Congress, the National Security Archive, the National Archives and Records Administration, and other government and media sources from the United Nations Archives, New York University, the New York Public Library, the Hoover Institution Archives, Tulane University and the Organization of American States. The thesis establishes that the Vietnam legacy played a key role in the Carter administration’s approach to Nicaragua. Before the overthrow of Somoza, the Carter administration limited their influence in Nicaragua because they felt there was no immediate threat from communism. The US feared that an active role in Nicaragua, without an established threat from Cuba or the Soviet Union, could jeopardise congressional support for other foreign policy goals deemed more important. The Carter administration, as a result, pursued a policy of non-intervention towards the Central American country. After the fall of Somoza, and the establishment of a new government with a left wing element represented by the Sandinistas, the Carter administration emphasised non-intervention in a military sense, but actively engaged with the new Nicaraguan leadership to contain the potential communist influence that could spread across Central America in the wake of the Nicaraguan revolution.

Hazard and early warning analysis based on domain specific modeling technologies

An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.

The emerging strategic partnership between the European Union and the African Union

Many among the emerging generation of political elites in Africa see the role the European Union (EU) plays in the maintenance of an unprecedented period of peace in Western Europe as an inspirational example of the manner in which the African Union (AU) can contribute to peace and stability in Africa. This doctoral thesis examines security cooperation between the EU and the AU, with a particular focus on the nature and substance of that cooperation. It suggests that despite the establishment of various EU–AU institutions and ties with a role in security policy and cooperation, such security cooperation is limited in substance. This study argues that EU–AU security cooperation is especially constrained by the emergence of alternative partners, most notably China, and by failures of implementation and follow-through. Two case studies, the first dealing with EU–AU cooperation in peacekeeping, and the second addressing the silent water crisis along with the link between water and security, have been analysed in detail to determine the effectiveness and sustainability of the EU–AU partnership. A number of important lessons for regionalism, interregionalism and multilateralism are drawn from the bond between the EU and the AU. This doctoral thesis will prove that, despite an emphasis on the problematic term ‘strategic’ by both EU and AU policymakers, EU–AU cooperation is limited and somewhat lacking in strategic direction. The cooperation between the EU and the AU focuses mainly on EU financial support for AU peacekeeping and specific projects in Africa (e.g. in the water sector), as well as on a limited political dialogue. Nonetheless, the EU–AU link represents the most comprehensive partnership the AU has with any non-African actor. This study will furthermore demonstrate that the United Nations (UN) is an indispensable third-party to their relationship and it is therefore more appropriate to speak of the AU–EU–UN nexus. This doctoral thesis concludes that the AU–EU–UN nexus is an important example of interregionalism in a global context and that such interregionalism is an important emerging part of global governance.

History of the Continuous Plankton Recorder Database. Proceedings of 'The Colour of Ocean Data' Symposium, Brussels, 25-27 November 2002.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey has operated in the North Atlantic and North Sea since 1931, providing a unitque multi-decadal dataset of plankton abundance. Over the period since 1931 technology has advanced and the system for storing the CPR data has developed considerably. From 1969 an electronic database was developed to store the results of CPR analysis. Since that time the CPR database has undergone a number of changes due to performance related factors such as processor speed and disk capacity as well as economic factors such as the cost of software. These issues have been overcome and the system for storing and retrieving the data has become more user friendly at every development stage.

Cuestiones de escala en el ámbito de la “Huella Hídrica”.

La aplicación de la “Huella Hídrica” a la realidad española debe hacerse desde la consciencia de que hasta hace relativamente poco, el pensamiento científico dominante era el reduccionismo, cuyo enfoque considera que basta un conocimiento detallado de cada uno de los componentes de un sistema y de sus leyes fundamentales, para entenderlo globalmente. Y es que, el interés por este indicador surge de la importancia que cobran conceptos como “escasez” y “contaminación” del agua, como consecuencia directa e indirecta de la actividad humana sobre los sistemas hídricos, tanto en España como en los países de América Latina; con el fin de mejorar la gestión –desde la oferta y la demanda- de los recursos hídricos del planeta y reducir las desigualdades territoriales. De este modo, en el presente estudio se realiza una estimación de la “Huella Hídrica” de España y América Latina, así como de a la Red de Parques Nacionales Españoles, tanto a nivel económico como ambiental, describiendo los recursos hídricos utilizados, necesarios para satisfacer la demanda de bienes y servicios consumidos, en los prolegómenos del siglo XXI.

Caged birds and cloning machines: how student imagery 'speaks' to us about cultures of schooling and student participation

With the advent of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), there is an increasing requirement that schools ensure children and young people's views are voiced, listened to and taken seriously on matters of significance. Encouraging these shifts by law is one thing; changing the culture in schools is another. For a significant proportion of schools, actively engaging students' voices on how they experience education poses a significant challenge and crucial gaps may exist between the rhetoric espoused and a school's readiness for genuine student involvement. This ethnographic study illuminates tensions that persist between headteachers' espoused views of how students are valued and students' creative images of their actual post-primary schooling experience. If cultures of schooling are to nurture the true spirit of democratic pupil participation implied by changes in the law, there is a need to develop genuine processes of student engagement in which students and staff can collaborate towards greater shared understandings of a school's priorities.

Orientación al mercado y tipología de las cooperativas agroalimentarias en base a la competitividad. Caso-estudio de las citrícolas españolas

La globalización ha recrudecido más si cabe la competencia en los mercados y las empresas deben afianzar y mejorar su posición competitiva para asegurar la supervivencia. Para ello resulta vital, entre otras cuestiones, velar por los intereses de los inversores al tiempo que cuidan de sus clientes. Las cooperativas sufren una coyuntura semejante respecto a sus socios y el mercado, es decir respecto a sus clientes internos (socios) y externos (mercado). El enfoque de las actividades y la estrategia de la cooperativa frente a esta dualidad determina su grado de orientación al mercado.Los estudios relacionados con la orientación al mercado en cooperativas son escasos en comparación con otras formas empresariales y han estado normalmente centrados en la figura de las cooperativas de segundo grado y circunscritos a sectores muy específicos.El sector citrícola español es uno de los más dinámicos y desarrollados del panorama productivo agrario. Su extensa experiencia comercial tanto a nivel doméstico como internacional confiere un carácter diferenciador a las entidades que operan en este subsector. Este trabajo analiza la posición de las cooperativas citrícolas españolas en relación a la orientación al mercado así como los factores de gestión y estrategia que están relacionadoscon ella. Para ello se utiliza una escala MARKOR, validada en estudios anteriores, sobre una muestra de 45 cooperativas.Se establece además una tipología de cooperativas citrícolas en base a los factores de competitividad que permiten ahondar en el conocimiento que existe sobre esta cuestión en entidades de economía social. Los resultados ponen de manifiesto un elevado grado de relación entre la innovación, el perfil del empresario y el conocimiento del entorno en relación con el grado de orientación al mercado.

Widening our knowledge concerning young looked after children: the case for research using sociological models of childhood

The Assessment and Action framework for looked after children, designed to improve outcomes for all children in public care and those at home on care orders, is now well established in the UK. This paper offers a critical evaluation of the framework by examining the model of childhood upon which it is premised and by exploring its relationship to children's rights as conceptualized in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989). It will be argued that the particular child development model which underpins the framework addresses the rights of looked after children to protection and provision but does not allow for their participation rights to be sufficiently addressed. A critical review of the research concerning the education and health of looked after children is used to illustrate these points. It will be argued that what are missing are the detailed accounts of looked after children themselves. It is concluded that there is a need for the development of additional research approaches premised upon sociological models of childhood. These would allow for a greater engagement with the participation rights of this group of children and complement the pre-existing research agenda

Agricultura urbana, condición para el desarrollo sostenible y la mejora del paisaje

Este artículo resulta de investigaciones en torno al “enverdecimiento” de las ciudades y las oportunidades de la agricultura urbana para la alimentación de una población en constante aumento que no trabaja la tierra. También es fruto de actividades de mejora de ambientes urbanos realizadas con la Escuela de Ingenieros Agrónomos de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. A través de casos de agricultura urbana, entendiendo por ella el conjunto de prácticas para la producción de alimentos y plantas ornamentales dentro de las ciudades y en sus entornos, se analizan alternativas para la recuperación de espacios construidos e incremento de la calidad de vida de la población. Todo ello se traduce, además, en creación de riqueza y mejora del paisaje urbano, siempre desde criterios de sostenibilidad que favorecen el desarrollo local desde la Cumbre de la Tierra de Río de 1992 y la Conferencia sobre Desarrollo Sostenible Río+20 de 2013.

Indicadores de sostenibilidad ambiental en el periurbano de la ciudad de Mar del Plata, Argentina

Los indicadores de sostenibilidad conforman herramientas útiles para la toma de decisiones. Las ciudades latinoamericanas, y especialmente las áreas de expansión sin planificación adecuada, enfrentan desafíos cada vez mayores para revertir problemáticas que amenazan su sostenibilidad. El presente trabajo evalúa de manera preliminar, la sostenibilidad ambiental del periurbano de Mar del Plata (Argentina) tomando como referencia algunos de los indicadores propuestos por el modelo del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo en la Iniciativa Ciudades Emergentes y Sostenibles. Se construyó un índice sintético (Índice de Sostenibilidad Ambiental, ISA) que integra trece indicadores agrupados en ocho temas. Las situaciones más críticas (ISA: 0,45-0,558) se identifican fundamentalmente en zonas en las que se desarrollan actividades rurales y en las que se localizan asentamientos de carácter precario. El estudio realizado profundiza en el conocimiento de la dimensión ambiental de la sostenibilidad, enfatizando en el análisis de los contrastes internos del periurbano marplatense.

Habitat for Humanity: Calibrating Best Practice Against the MDGs

Poverty alleviation lies at the heart of contemporary international initiatives on development. The key to development is the creation of an environment in which people can develop their potential, leading productive, creative lives in accordance with their needs, interests and faith. This entails, on the one hand, protecting the vulnerable from things that threaten their survival, such as inadequate nutrition, disease, conflict, natural disasters and the impact of climate change, thereby enhancing the poor’s capabilities to develop resilience in difficult conditions. On the other hand, it also requires a means of empowering the poor to act on their own behalf, as individuals and communities, to secure access to resources and the basic necessities of life such as water, food, shelter, sanitation, health and education. ‘Development’, from this perspective, seeks to address the sources of human insecurity, working towards ‘freedom from want, freedom from fear’ in ways that empower the vulnerable as agents of development (not passive recipients of benefaction).

Recognition of the magnitude of the problems confronted by the poor and failure of past interventions to tackle basic issues of human security led the United Nations (UN) in September 2000 to set out a range of ambitious, but clearly defined, development goals to be achieved by 2015. These are known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The intention of the UN was to mobilise multilateral international organisations, non-governmental organisations and the wider international community to focus attention on fulfilling earlier promises to combat global poverty. This international framework for development prioritises: the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development. These goals have been mapped onto specific targets (18 in total) against which outcomes of associated development initiatives can be measured and the international community held to account. If the world achieves the MDGs, more than 500 million people will be lifted out of poverty. However, the challenges the goals represent are formidable. Interim reports on the initiative indicate a need to scale-up efforts and accelerate progress.
Only MDG 7, Target 11 explicitly identifies shelter as a priority, identifying the need to secure ‘by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’. This raises a question over how Habitat for Humanity’s commitment to tackling poverty housing fits within this broader international framework designed to allievate global poverty. From an analysis of HFH case studies, this report argues that the processes by which Habitat for Humanity tackles poverty housing directly engages with the agenda set by the MDGs. This should not be regarded as a beneficial by-product of the delivery of decent, affordable shelter, but rather understood in terms of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity has translated its mission and values into a participatory model that empowers individuals and communities to address the interdependencies between inadequate shelter and other sources of human insecurity. What housing can deliver is as important as what housing itself is.

Examples of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity projects engage with the MDG framework include the incorporation of sustainable livelihoods strategies, up-grading of basic infrastructure and promotion of models of good governance. This includes housing projects that have also offered training to young people in skills used in the construction industry, microfinanced loans for women to start up their own home-based businesses, and the provision of food gardens. These play an important role in lifting families out of poverty and ensuring the sustainability of HFH projects. Studies of the impact of improved shelter and security of livelihood upon family life and the welfare of children evidence higher rates of participation in education, more time dedicated to study and greater individual achievement. Habitat for Humanity projects also typically incorporate measures to up-grade the provision of basic sanitation facilities and supplies of safe, potable drinking water. These measures not only directly help reduce mortality rates (e.g. diarrheal diseases account for around 2 million deaths annually in children under 5), but also, when delivered through HFH project-related ‘community funds’, empower the poor to mobilise community resources, develop local leadership capacities and even secure de facto security of tenure from government authorities.

In the process of translating its mission and values into practical measures, HFH has developed a range of innovative practices that deliver much more than housing alone. The organisation’s participatory model enables both direct beneficiaries and the wider community to tackle the insecurities they face, unlocking latent skills and enterprise, building sustainable livelihood capabilities. HFH plays an important role as a catalyst for change, delivering through the vehicle of housing the means to address the primary causes of poverty itself. Its contribution to wider development priorities deserves better recognition. In calibrating the success of HFH projects in terms of units completed or renovated alone, the significance of the process by which HFH realises these outcomes is often not sufficiently acknowledged, both within the organisation and externally. As the case studies developed in the report illustrate, the methodologies Habitat for Humanity employs to address the issue of poverty housing within the developing world, place the organisation at the centre of a global strategic agenda to address the root causes of poverty through community empowerment and the transformation of structures of governance.

Given this, the global network of HFH affiliates constitutes a unique organisational framework to faciliate sharing resources, ideas and practical experience across a diverse range of cultural, political and institutional environments. This said, it is apparent that work needs to be done to better to faciliate the pooling of experience and lessons learnt from across its affiliates. Much is to be gained from learning from less successful projects, sharing innovative practices, identifying strategic partnerships with donors, other NGOs and CBOs, and engaging with the international development community on how housing fits within a broader agenda to alleviate poverty and promote good governance.

The Responses of States to the Comments of the CEDAW Committee on Domestic Violence

This article examines the question of how states have responded to the comments of the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW Committee) on the issue of domestic violence, through an analysis of 11 Western European States. It is argued that the majority of the states surveyed are complying with only some of the recommendations of the Committee in relation to domestic violence. This finding serves to highlight the fact that there are certainly major difficulties regarding the implementation of human rights law. This article focuses on the Concluding Observations made by the CEDAW Committee on the reports submitted by the Member States, and problems surrounding these Concluding Observations and the work of the Committee are also examined.