Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Role and purpose of standards in the context of national curriculum and assessment reform for accountability, improvement and equity in student learning

In this article our starting point is the current context of national curriculum change and intense speculation about the assessment, standards and reporting. It is written against a background of accountability measures and improvement imperatives, and focuses attention on standards as offering representations of quality. We understand standards to be constructs that aim to achieve public credibility and utility. Further, they can be examined for the purposes they seek to serve and also their expected functions. Fitness for purpose is therefore a useful notion in considering the nature of standards. Our interest in the discussion is the ‘fit’ between how standards are formulated and how they are used in practice, by whom and for what purposes. A related interest is in the matter of how standards can be harnessed to realise improvement.

Assessment of the suitability of public mobile data networks for aircraft telemetry and control purposes

This paper provides a review of the state of the art relevant work on the use of public mobile data networks for aircraft telemetry and control proposes. Moreover, it describes the characterisation for airborne uses of the public mobile data communication systems known broadly as 3G. The motivation for this study was the explore how this mature public communication systems could be used for aviation purposes. An experimental system was fitted to a light aircraft to record communication latency, line speed, RF level, packet loss and cell tower identifier. Communications was established using internet protocols and connection was made to a local server. The aircraft was flown in both remote and populous areas at altitudes up to 8500 ft in a region located in South East Queensland, Australia. Results show that the average airborne RF levels are better than those on the ground by 21% and in the order of - 77dbm. Latencies were in the order of 500ms (1/2 the latency of Iridium), an average download speed of 0.48Mb/s, average uplink speed of 0.85Mb/s, a packet of information loss of 6.5%. The maximum communication range was also observed to be 70km from a single cell station. The paper also describes possible limitations and utility of using such communications architecture for both manned and unmanned aircraft systems.

Transit users' route-choice modelling in transit assignment : a review

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in thecontext of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within-day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re-examined. The first group includes shortest-path heuristics in all-or-nothing assignment, random utility maximization route-choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within-day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day-to-day dynamics, and real-time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.

The nonconceptual gateway to early word learning

My research investigates why nouns are learned disproportionately more frequently than other kinds of words during early language acquisition (Gentner, 1982; Gleitman, et al., 2004). This question must be considered in the context of cognitive development in general. Infants have two major streams of environmental information to make meaningful: perceptual and linguistic. Perceptual information flows in from the senses and is processed into symbolic representations by the primitive language of thought (Fodor, 1975). These symbolic representations are then linked to linguistic input to enable language comprehension and ultimately production. Yet, how exactly does perceptual information become conceptualized? Although this question is difficult, there has been progress. One way that children might have an easier job is if they have structures that simplify the data. Thus, if particular sorts of perceptual information could be separated from the mass of input, then it would be easier for children to refer to those specific things when learning words (Spelke, 1990; Pylyshyn, 2003). It would be easier still, if linguistic input was segmented in predictable ways (Gentner, 1982; Gleitman, et al., 2004) Unfortunately the frequency of patterns in lexical or grammatical input cannot explain the cross-cultural and cross-linguistic tendency to favor nouns over verbs and predicates. There are three examples of this failure: 1) a wide variety of nouns are uttered less frequently than a smaller number of verbs and yet are learnt far more easily (Gentner, 1982); 2) word order and morphological transparency offer no insight when you contrast the sentence structures and word inflections of different languages (Slobin, 1973) and 3) particular language teaching behaviors (e.g. pointing at objects and repeating names for them) have little impact on children's tendency to prefer concrete nouns in their first fifty words (Newport, et al., 1977). Although the linguistic solution appears problematic, there has been increasing evidence that the early visual system does indeed segment perceptual information in specific ways before the conscious mind begins to intervene (Pylyshyn, 2003). I argue that nouns are easier to learn because their referents directly connect with innate features of the perceptual faculty. This hypothesis stems from work done on visual indexes by Zenon Pylyshyn (2001, 2003). Pylyshyn argues that the early visual system (the architecture of the "vision module") segments perceptual data into pre-conceptual proto-objects called FINSTs. FINSTs typically correspond to physical things such as Spelke objects (Spelke, 1990). Hence, before conceptualization, visual objects are picked out by the perceptual system demonstratively, like a finger pointing indicating ‘this’ or ‘that’. I suggest that this primitive system of demonstration elaborates on Gareth Evan's (1982) theory of nonconceptual content. Nouns are learnt first because their referents attract demonstrative visual indexes. This theory also explains why infants less often name stationary objects such as plate or table, but do name things that attract the focal attention of the early visual system, i.e., small objects that move, such as ‘dog’ or ‘ball’. This view leaves open the question how blind children learn words for visible objects and why children learn category nouns (e.g. 'dog'), rather than proper nouns (e.g. 'Fido') or higher taxonomic distinctions (e.g. 'animal').

Political theory and theoretical physics

This paper argues, somewhat along a Simmelian line, that political theory may produce practical and universal theories like those developed in theoretical physics. The reasoning behind this paper is to show that the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may be true by way of comparing it to Einstein’s Special Relativity – specifically concerning the parameters of symmetry, unification, simplicity, and utility. These parameters are what make a theory in physics as meeting them not only fits with current knowledge, but also produces paths towards testing (application). As the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may meet these same parameters, it could settle the debate concerning the definition of democracy. This will be argued firstly by discussing what the theory of ‘basic democracy’ is and why it differs from previous work; secondly by explaining the parameters chosen (as in why these and not others confirm or scuttle theories); and thirdly by comparing how Special Relativity and the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may match the parameters.

Applying psychological model of personality to the study of leadership

Cloninger’s psychobiological model of temperament and character is a general model of personality that has been widely used in clinical psychology, but has seldom been applied in other domains. In this research we apply Cloninger’s model to the study of leadership. Our study comprised 81 participants who took part in a diverse range of small group tasks. Participants rotated through tasks and groups and rated each other on “emergent leadership.” As hypothesized, leader emergence tended to be consistent regardless of the specific tasks and groups. It was found that personality factors from Cloninger, Svrakic, and Przybeck’s (1993) model could explain trait-based variance in emergent leadership. Results also highlight the role of “cooperativeness” in the prediction of leadership emergence. Implications are discussed in terms of our theoretical understanding of trait-based leadership, and more generally in terms of the utility of Cloninger’s model in leadership research.

Benchmarking clinical indicators of quality for Australian residential aged care facilities

To undertake exploratory benchmarking of a set of clinical indicators of quality care in residential care in Australia, data were collected from 107 residents within four medium-sized facilities (40–80 beds) in Brisbane, Australia. The proportion of residents in each sample facility with a particular clinical problem was compared with US Minimum Data Set quality indicator thresholds. Results demonstrated variability within and between clinical indicators, suggesting breadth of assessment using various clinical indicators of quality is an important factor when monitoring quality of care. More comprehensive and objective measures of quality of care would be of great assistance in determining and monitoring the effectiveness of residential aged care provision in Australia, particularly as demands for accountability by consumers and their families increase. What is known about the topic? The key to quality improvement is effective quality assessment, and one means of evaluating quality of care is through clinical outcomes. The Minimum Data Set quality indicators have been credited with improving quality in United States nursing homes. What does this paper add? The Clinical Care Indicators Tool was used to collect data on clinical outcomes, enabling comparison of data from a small Australian sample with American quality benchmarks to illustrate the utility of providing guidelines for interpretation. What are the implications for practitioners? Collecting and comparing clinical outcome data would enable practitioners to better understand the quality of care being provided and whether practices required review. The Clinical Care Indicator Tool could provide a comprehensive and systematic means of doing this, thus filling a gap in quality monitoring within Australian residential aged care.

Fashion as consumer entrepreneurship : emergent risk culture, social network markets, and the launch of Vogue in China

China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

Attractiveness of venture idea amongst expert entrepreneurs : a conjoint analysis

Principal Topic Venture ideas are at the heart of entrepreneurship (Davidsson, 2004). However, we are yet to learn what factors drive entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the attractiveness of venture ideas, and what the relative importance of these factors are for their decision to pursue an idea. The expected financial gain is one factor that will obviously influence the perceived attractiveness of a venture idea (Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005). In addition, the degree of novelty of venture ideas along one or more dimensions such as new products/services, new method of production, enter into new markets/customer and new method of promotion may affect their attractiveness (Schumpeter, 1934). Further, according to the notion of an individual-opportunity nexus venture ideas are closely associated with certain individual characteristics (relatedness). Shane (2000) empirically identified that individual’s prior knowledge is closely associated with the recognition of venture ideas. Sarasvathy’s (2001; 2008) Effectuation theory proposes a high degree of relatedness between venture ideas and the resource position of the individual. This study examines how entrepreneurs weigh considerations of different forms of novelty and relatedness as well as potential financial gain in assessing the attractiveness of venture ideas. Method I use conjoint analysis to determine how expert entrepreneurs develop preferences for venture ideas which involved with different degrees of novelty, relatedness and potential gain. The conjoint analysis estimates respondents’ preferences in terms of utilities (or part-worth) for each level of novelty, relatedness and potential gain of venture ideas. A sample of 32 expert entrepreneurs who were awarded young entrepreneurship awards were selected for the study. Each respondent was interviewed providing with 32 scenarios which explicate different combinations of possible profiles open them into consideration. Results and Implications Results indicate that while the respondents do not prefer mere imitation they receive higher utility for low to medium degree of newness suggesting that high degrees of newness are fraught with greater risk and/or greater resource needs. Respondents pay considerable weight on alignment with the knowledge and skills they already posses in choosing particular venture idea. The initial resource position of entrepreneurs is not equally important. Even though expected potential financial gain gives substantial utility, result indicate that it is not a dominant factor for the attractiveness of venture idea.

Dealing with the problem of cybercrime

Lack of a universally accepted and comprehensive taxonomy of cybercrime seriously impedes international efforts to accurately identify, report and monitor cybercrime trends. There is, not surprisingly, a corresponding disconnect internationally on the cybercrime legislation front, a much more serious problem and one which the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) says requires „the urgent attention of all nations‟. Yet, and despite the existence of the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime, a proposal for a global cybercrime treaty was rejected by the United Nations (UN) as recently as April 2010. This paper presents a refined and comprehensive taxonomy of cybercrime and demonstrates its utility for widespread use. It analyses how the USA, the UK, Australia and the UAE align with the CoE Convention and finds that more needs to be done to achieve conformance. We conclude with an analysis of the approaches used in Australia, in Queensland, and in the UAE, in Abu Dhabi, to fight cybercrime and identify a number of shared problems.

Anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide with picric acid and 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid: 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2,4,6-trinitrophenolate and two polymorphs of 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2-carboxy-4,6-dinitrophenolate

The structures of the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide (4-carbamoylpiperidine) with picric acid and 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid, namely 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2,4,6-trinitrophenolate, C6H13N2O8+ C6H2N3O7- (I) and 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2-carboxy-4,6-dinitrophenolate, C6H13N2O8+ C7H3N2O7-: two forms, the monoclinic alpha-polymorph (II) and the triclinic beta-polymorph (III) have been determined at 200 K. All compounds form hydrogen-bonded structures, one-dimensional in (II), two-dimensional in (I) and three-dimensional in (III). In (I), the cations form centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-tail hydrogen-bonded homodimers [graph set R2/2(14)] through lateral duplex piperidinium N---H...O(amide) interactions. These dimers are extended into a two-dimensional network structure through further interactions with anion phenolate-O and nitro-O acceptors, including a direct symmetric piperidinium N-H...O(phenol),O(nitro) cation--anion association [graph set R2/1(6)]. The monoclinic polymorph (II) has a similar R2/1(6) cation-anion hydrogen-bonding interaction to (I) but with an additional conjoint symmetrical R1/2(4) interaction as well as head-to-tail piperidinium N-H...O(amide) O hydrogen bonds and amide N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds, give a network structure which include large R3/4(20) rings. The hydrogen bonding in the triclinic polymorph (III) is markedly different from that of monoclinic (II). The asymmetric unit contains two independent cation-anion pairs which associate through cyclic piperidinium N-H...O,O'(carboxyl) interactions [graph set R2/1(4)]. The cations also show the zig-zag head-to-tail piperidinium N-H...O(amide) hydrogen-bonded chain substructures found in (II) but in addition feature amide N-H...O(nitro) and O(phenolate) and amide N-H...O(nitro) associations. As well there is a centrosymmetric double-amide N-H...O(carboxyl) bridged bis(cation-anion) ring system [graph set R2/4(8)] in the three-dimensional framework. The structures reported here demonstrate the utility of the isonipecotamide cation as a synthon with previously unrecognized potential for structure assembly applications. Furthermore, the structures of the two polymorphic 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid salts show an unusual dissimilarity in hydrogen-bonding characteristics, considering that both were obtained from identical solvent systems.

Hydrogen bonding in the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide with nitro-substituted benzoic acids: the salts of the three isomeric mononitrobenzoic acids and of 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid

The structures of the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide (piperidine-4-carboxamide) with the three isomeric mononitro-substituted benzoic acids and 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid, namely 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2-nitrobenzoate (I), 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 3-nitrobenzoate (II), 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 4-nitrobenzoate (III), (C6H13N2O+ C7H4NO4-) and 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 3,5-dinitrobenzoate (IV) (C6H13N2O+ C7H5N2O6-)respectively, have been determined at 200 K. All salts form hydrogen-bonded structures: three-dimensional in (I), two-dimensional in (II) and (III) and one-dimensional in (IV). Featured in the hydrogen bonding of three of these [(I), (II) and (IV)] is the cyclic head-to-head amide--amide homodimer motif [graph set R2/2~(8)] through a duplex N---H...O association, the dimer then giving structure extension via either piperidinium or amide H-donors and carboxylate-O and in some examples [(II) and (IV)], nitro-O atom acceptors. In (I), the centrosymmetric amide-amide homodimers are expanded laterally through N-H...O hydrogen bonds via cyclic R2/4(8) interactions forming ribbons which extend along the c cell direction. These ribbons incorporate the 2-nitrobenzoate cations through centrosymmetric cyclic piperidine N-H...O(carboxyl) associations [graph set R4/4(12)], giving inter-connected sheets in the three-dimensional structure. In (II) in which no amide-amide homodimer is present, duplex piperidinium N-H...O(amide) hydrogen-bonding homomolecular associations [graph set R2/2(14)] give centrosymmetric head-to-tail dimers. Structure extension occurs through hydrogen-bonding associations between both the amide H-donors and carboxyl and nitro O-acceptors as well as a three-centre piperidinium N-H...O,O'(carboxyl) cyclic R2/1(4) association giving the two-dimensional network structure. In (III), the centrosymmetric amide-amide dimers are linked through the two carboxyl O-atom acceptors of the anions via bridging piperidinium and amide N-H...O,O'...H-N(amide) hydrogen bonds giving the two-dimensional sheet structure which features centrosymmetric cyclic R4/4(12) associations. In (IV), the amide-amide dimer is also centrosymmetric with the dimers linked to the anions through amide N-H...O(nitro) interactions. The piperidinium groups extend the structure into one-dimensional ribbons via N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds. The structures reported here further demonstrate the utility of the isonipecotamide cation in molecular assembly and highlight the efficacy of the cyclic R2/2(8) amide-amide hydrogen-bonding homodimer motif in this process and provide an additional homodimer motif type in the head-to-tail R2/2(14) association.

Examination of the latent structure of the psychological sense of school membership scale

Despite its widespread use, there has been limited examination of the underlying factor structure of the Psychological Sense of School Membership (PSSM) scale. The current study examined the psychometric properties of the PSSM to refine its utility for researchers and practitioners using a sample of 504 Australian high school students. Results from exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that the PSSM is a multidimensional instrument. Factor analysis procedures identified three factors representing related aspects of students’ perceptions of their school membership: caring relationships, acceptance, and rejection

Anthony Browne and the cultural capital of classic fairy tales

Prolific British author/illustrator Anthony Browne both participates in the classic fairy-tale tradition and appropriates its cultural capital, ultimately undertaking a process of self-canonisation alongside the dissemination of fairy tales. In reading Browne’s Hansel and Gretel (1981), The Tunnel (1989) and Into the Forest (2004), a trajectory emerges that moves from broadly intertextual to more exclusively self-referential modes of representation which reward readers of “Anthony Browne”, rather than readers of “fairy tales”. All three books depict ‘babes in the woods’ stories wherein child characters must negotiate some form of threat outside the home in order to return home safely. Thus, they represent childhood agency. However, these visions of agency are ultimately subordinated to logics of capital, which means that child readers of Browne’s fairy-tale books are overtly invited to identify with children who act, but are interpellated as privileged if they ‘know’. Bourdieu’s model of ‘cultural capital’ offers a lens for considering Browne’s production of ‘value’ for his own works within a broader cultural landscape which privileges literary fairy tales as a register of juvenile cultural competency. If cultural capital can be formulated most simply as the symbolic exchange value of approved modes of knowing and being, it is clearly helpful when trying to unpack logics of meaning within heavily intertextual or citational texts. It is also helpful thinking about what kinds of stories we as a culture choose to disseminate, choose to privilege, or choose to suppress. Zipes notes of fairy tales that, “the genre itself becomes a kind of institute that is involved in the socialization and acculturation of readers” (22). He elaborates that, “We initiate readers and expect them to learn the fairy-tale code as part of our responsibility in the civilizing process” (Zipes 29), so it is little wonder that Tatar describes fairy tales as “a vital part of our cultural capital” (xix). Although Browne is clearly interested in literary fairy tales, the most obvious strategies of self-canonisation take place in Browne’s work not in words but in pictures: hidden in plain sight, as illustration becomes self-reflexive citation.