Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

The effects of corporate and country sustainability characteristics on the cost of debt: an international investigation

We investigate the relationship between corporate and country sustainability on the cost of bank loans. We look into 470 loan agreements signed between 2005 and 2012 with borrowers based in 28 different countries across the world and operating in all major industries. Our principal findings reveal that country sustainability, relating to both social and environmental frameworks, has a statistically and economically impactful effect on direct financing of economic activity. An increase of one unit in a country's sustainability score is associated with an average decrease in the cost of debt by 64 basis points. Our international analysis shows that the environmental dimension of a country's institutional framework is approximately twice as impactful as the social dimension, when it comes to determining the cost of corporate loans. On the other hand, we find no conclusive evidence that firm-level sustainability influences the interest rates charged to borrowing firms by banks. Our main findings survive a battery of robustness tests and additional analyses concerning subsamples, alternative sustainability metrics and the effects of financial crisis.

El Niño 2015/2016: impact analysis of past El Niños

This is a DfID (Department for International Development) commissioned report on the impact of historical El Niño events on low- and middle-income countries across Africa and elsewhere. The report identifies El Niño events in the past 35 years and highlights regions and countries vulnerable to their impacts. The impacts on rainfall and temperature are broken down by season and country as the El Niño develops, peaks and decays and are represented in at-a-glance Impact Tables. The Impact Tables also include an extensive review of literature (e.g., peer-reviewed, grey literature and media reports) to identify potential socio-economic impacts in vulnerable sectors such as water, infrastructure, energy and health. The risk of such impacts are graded as high, medium or potential depending on the meteorological signal and the robustness of evidence available.

Taxes, corruption, and entry

Tax policies and corruption are important institutional considerations which can shape entrepreneurship. We investigate how tax rates, and the interaction between corruption and tax rates, influence variations in entry across a panel of 72 countries in the period 2005–2011. We use a series of panel estimations as well as several robustness checks to test these effects, using relevant controls for economic development, the size of the state, and other regulatory and tax policy measures. We find that higher tax rates consistently discourage entry. Further, we find that although the direct influence of corruption on entry is also consistently negative, the interaction influence of corruption and tax rate is positive. This indicates that corruption can offset the negative influence of high taxes on entry. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers and future research.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Human Stem Cell Cultures from Cleft Lip/Palate Patients Show Enrichment of Transcripts Involved in Extracellular Matrix Modeling By Comparison to Controls

Nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate (NSCL/P) is a complex disease resulting from failure of fusion of facial primordia, a complex developmental process that includes the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Detection of differential gene transcription between NSCL/P patients and control individuals offers an interesting alternative for investigating pathways involved in disease manifestation. Here we compared the transcriptome of 6 dental pulp stem cell (DPSC) cultures from NSCL/P patients and 6 controls. Eighty-seven differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified. The most significant putative gene network comprised 13 out of 87 DEGs of which 8 encode extracellular proteins: ACAN, COL4A1, COL4A2, GDF15, IGF2, MMP1, MMP3 and PDGFa. Through clustering analyses we also observed that MMP3, ACAN, COL4A1 and COL4A2 exhibit co-regulated expression. Interestingly, it is known that MMP3 cleavages a wide range of extracellular proteins, including the collagens IV, V, IX, X, proteoglycans, fibronectin and laminin. It is also capable of activating other MMPs. Moreover, MMP3 had previously been associated with NSCL/P. The same general pattern was observed in a further sample, confirming involvement of synchronized gene expression patterns which differed between NSCL/P patients and controls. These results show the robustness of our methodology for the detection of differentially expressed genes using the RankProd method. In conclusion, DPSCs from NSCL/P patients exhibit gene expression signatures involving genes associated with mechanisms of extracellular matrix modeling and palate EMT processes which differ from those observed in controls. This comparative approach should lead to a more rapid identification of gene networks predisposing to this complex malformation syndrome than conventional gene mapping technologies.

Sequence-specific reconstruction from fragmentary databases using seed sequences: implementation and validation on SAGE, proteome and generic sequencing data

Motivation: DNA assembly programs classically perform an all-against-all comparison of reads to identify overlaps, followed by a multiple sequence alignment and generation of a consensus sequence. If the aim is to assemble a particular segment, instead of a whole genome or transcriptome, a target-specific assembly is a more sensible approach. GenSeed is a Perl program that implements a seed-driven recursive assembly consisting of cycles comprising a similarity search, read selection and assembly. The iterative process results in a progressive extension of the original seed sequence. GenSeed was tested and validated on many applications, including the reconstruction of nuclear genes or segments, full-length transcripts, and extrachromosomal genomes. The robustness of the method was confirmed through the use of a variety of DNA and protein seeds, including short sequences derived from SAGE and proteome projects.

Fiedler trees for multiscale surface analysis

In this work we introduce a new hierarchical surface decomposition method for multiscale analysis of surface meshes. In contrast to other multiresolution methods, our approach relies on spectral properties of the surface to build a binary hierarchical decomposition. Namely, we utilize the first nontrivial eigenfunction of the Laplace-Beltrami operator to recursively decompose the surface. For this reason we coin our surface decomposition the Fiedler tree. Using the Fiedler tree ensures a number of attractive properties, including: mesh-independent decomposition, well-formed and nearly equi-areal surface patches, and noise robustness. We show how the evenly distributed patches can be exploited for generating multiresolution high quality uniform meshes. Additionally, our decomposition permits a natural means for carrying out wavelet methods, resulting in an intuitive method for producing feature-sensitive meshes at multiple scales. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Front tracking with moving-least-squares surfaces

The representation of interfaces by means of the algebraic moving-least-squares (AMLS) technique is addressed. This technique, in which the interface is represented by an unconnected set of points, is interesting for evolving fluid interfaces since there is]to surface connectivity. The position of the surface points can thus be updated without concerns about the quality of any surface triangulation. We introduce a novel AMLS technique especially designed for evolving-interfaces applications that we denote RAMLS (for Robust AMLS). The main advantages with respect to previous AMLS techniques are: increased robustness, computational efficiency, and being free of user-tuned parameters. Further, we propose a new front-tracking method based on the Lagrangian advection of the unconnected point set that defines the RAMLS surface. We assume that a background Eulerian grid is defined with some grid spacing h. The advection of the point set makes the surface evolve in time. The point cloud can be regenerated at any time (in particular, we regenerate it each time step) by intersecting the gridlines with the evolved surface, which guarantees that the density of points on the surface is always well balanced. The intersection algorithm is essentially a ray-tracing algorithm, well-studied in computer graphics, in which a line (ray) is traced so as to detect all intersections with a surface. Also, the tracing of each gridline is independent and can thus be performed in parallel. Several tests are reported assessing first the accuracy of the proposed RAMLS technique, and then of the front-tracking method based on it. Comparison with previous Eulerian, Lagrangian and hybrid techniques encourage further development of the proposed method for fluid mechanics applications. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Schrodinger equation with chaotic, random, and nonperiodic nonlinearity

In this Letter we deal with a nonlinear Schrodinger equation with chaotic, random, and nonperiodic cubic nonlinearity. Our goal is to study the soliton evolution, with the strength of the nonlinearity perturbed in the space and time coordinates and to check its robustness under these conditions. Here we show that the chaotic perturbation is more effective in destroying the soliton behavior, when compared with random or nonperiodic perturbation. For a real system, the perturbation can be related to, e.g., impurities in crystalline structures, or coupling to a thermal reservoir which, on the average, enhances the nonlinearity. We also discuss the relevance of such random perturbations to the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates and their collective excitations and transport. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional QSAR studies on arylpiperazines as high-affinity 5-HT(1A) receptor ligands

5-HT(1A) receptor plays an important role in the delayed onset of antidepressant action of a class of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Moreover, 5-HT(1A) receptor levels have been shown to be altered in patients suffering from major depression. In this work, hologram quantitative structure-activity relationship (HQSAR) studies were performed on a series of arylpiperazine compounds presenting affinity to the 5-HT(1A) receptor. The models were constructed with a training set of 70 compounds. The most significant HQSAR model (q(2) = 0.81, r(2) = 0.96) was generated using atoms, bonds, connections, chirality, and donor and acceptor as fragment distinction, with fragment size of 6-9. Predictions for an external test set containing 20 compounds are in good agreement with experimental results showing the robustness of the model. Additionally, useful information can be obtained from the 2D contribution maps.

Comparative molecular field analysis of a series of inhibitors of HIV-1 protease

Several protease inhibitors have reached the world market in the last fifteen years, dramatically improving the quality of life and life expectancy of millions of HIV-infected patients. In spite of the tremendous research efforts in this area, resistant HIV-1 variants are constantly decreasing the ability of the drugs to efficiently inhibit the enzyme. As a consequence, inhibitors with novel frameworks are necessary to circumvent resistance to chemotherapy. In the present work, we have created 3D QSAR models for a series of 82 HIV-1 protease inhibitors employing the comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) method. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (q(2) = 0.82 and r(2) = 0.97), indicating the internal consistency of the best model, which was then used to evaluate an external test set containing 17 compounds. The predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results, showing the robustness of the model and its substantial predictive power for untested compounds. The final QSAR model and the information gathered from the CoMFA contour maps should be useful for the design of novel anti-HIV agents with improved potency.

Resilience of protein-protein interaction networks as determined by their large-scale topological features

The relationship between the structure and function of biological networks constitutes a fundamental issue in systems biology. Particularly, the structure of protein-protein interaction networks is related to important biological functions. In this work, we investigated how such a resilience is determined by the large scale features of the respective networks. Four species are taken into account, namely yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, worm Caenorhabditis elegans, fly Drosophila melanogaster and Homo sapiens. We adopted two entropy-related measurements (degree entropy and dynamic entropy) in order to quantify the overall degree of robustness of these networks. We verified that while they exhibit similar structural variations under random node removal, they differ significantly when subjected to intentional attacks (hub removal). As a matter of fact, more complex species tended to exhibit more robust networks. More specifically, we quantified how six important measurements of the networks topology (namely clustering coefficient, average degree of neighbors, average shortest path length, diameter, assortativity coefficient, and slope of the power law degree distribution) correlated with the two entropy measurements. Our results revealed that the fraction of hubs and the average neighbor degree contribute significantly for the resilience of networks. In addition, the topological analysis of the removed hubs indicated that the presence of alternative paths between the proteins connected to hubs tend to reinforce resilience. The performed analysis helps to understand how resilience is underlain in networks and can be applied to the development of protein network models.

Multiple camera people detection and tracking using support integration

This paper proposes a method to locate and track people by combining evidence from multiple cameras using the homography constraint. The proposed method use foreground pixels from simple background subtraction to compute evidence of the location of people on a reference ground plane. The algorithm computes the amount of support that basically corresponds to the ""foreground mass"" above each pixel. Therefore, pixels that correspond to ground points have more support. The support is normalized to compensate for perspective effects and accumulated on the reference plane for all camera views. The detection of people on the reference plane becomes a search for regions of local maxima in the accumulator. Many false positives are filtered by checking the visibility consistency of the detected candidates against all camera views. The remaining candidates are tracked using Kalman filters and appearance models. Experimental results using challenging data from PETS`06 show good performance of the method in the presence of severe occlusion. Ground truth data also confirms the robustness of the method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.