A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intravenous glutamine decreases lung and distal organ injury in an experimental model of abdominal sepsis

Introduction The protective effect of glutamine, as a pharmacological agent against lung injury, has been reported in experimental sepsis; however, its efficacy at improving oxygenation and lung mechanics, attenuating diaphragm and distal organ injury has to be better elucidated. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that a single early intravenous dose of glutamine was associated not only with the improvement of lung morpho-function, but also the reduction of the inflammatory process and epithelial cell apoptosis in kidney, liver, and intestine villi. Methods Seventy-two Wistar rats were randomly assigned into four groups. Sepsis was induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery (CLP), while a sham operated group was used as control (C). One hour after surgery, C and CLP groups were further randomized into subgroups receiving intravenous saline (1 ml, SAL) or glutamine (0.75 g/kg, Gln). At 48 hours, animals were anesthetized, and the following parameters were measured: arterial oxygenation, pulmonary mechanics, and diaphragm, lung, kidney, liver, and small intestine villi histology. At 18 and 48 hours, Cytokine-Induced Neutrophil Chemoattractant (CINC)-1, interleukin (IL)-6 and 10 were quantified in bronchoalveolar and peritoneal lavage fluids (BALF and PLF, respectively). Results CLP induced: a) deterioration of lung mechanics and gas exchange; b) ultrastructural changes of lung parenchyma and diaphragm; and c) lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine improved survival rate, oxygenation and lung mechanics, minimized pulmonary and diaphragmatic changes, attenuating lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine increased IL-10 in peritoneal lavage fluid at 18 hours and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid at 48 hours, but decreased CINC-1 and IL-6 in BALF and PLF only at 18 hours. Conclusions In an experimental model of abdominal sepsis, a single intravenous dose of glutamine administered after sepsis induction may modulate the inflammatory process reducing not only the risk of lung injury, but also distal organ impairment. These results suggest that intravenous glutamine may be a potentially beneficial therapy for abdominal sepsis.

A rodent model of NASH with cirrhosis, oval cell proliferation and hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a well recognized complication of advanced NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis). We sought to produce a rat model of NASH, cirrhosis and HCC. Methods: Adult Sprague-Dawley rats, weighing 250-300 g, were fed a choline-deficient, high trans-fat diet and exposed to DEN in drinking water. After 16 weeks, the animals underwent liver ultrasound (US), sacrifice and assessment by microscopy, immunohistochemistry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Results: US revealed steatosis and focal lesions in 6 of 7. All had steatohepatitis defined as inflammation, advanced fibrosis and ballooning with Mallory-Denk bodies (MDB) with frank cirrhosis in 6. Areas of more severe injury were associated with anti-CK19 positive ductular reaction. HCC, present in all, were macro-trabecullar or solid with polyhedral cells with foci of steatosis and ballooned cells. CK19 was positive in single or solid nests of oval cells and in neoplastic hepatocytes. TEM showed ballooning with small droplet fat, dilated endoplasmic reticulum and MDB in non-neoplastic hepatocytes and small droplet steatosis in some cancer cells. Conclusions: This model replicated many features of NASH including steatohepatitis with ballooning, fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Oval cell proliferation was evident and the presence anti-CK 19 positivity in the cancer suggests oval cell origin of the malignancy. (C) 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells on airway and lung parenchyma remodeling in a murine model of chronic allergic inflammation

We hypothesized that bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BMDMC) would attenuate the remodeling process in a chronic allergic inflammation model. C57BL/6 mice were assigned to two groups. In OVA, mice were sensitized and repeatedly challenged with ovalbumin. Control mice (C) received saline under the same protocol. C and OVA were further randomized to receive BMDMC (2 x 10(6)) or saline intravenously 24 h before the first challenge. BMDMC therapy reduced eosinophil infiltration, smooth muscle-specific actin expression, subepithelial fibrosis, and myocyte hypertrophy and hyperplasia, thus causing a decrease in airway hyperresponsiveness and lung mechanical parameters. BMDMC from green fluorescent protein (GFP)-transgenic mice transplanted into GFP-negative mice yielded lower engraftment in OVA. BMDMC increased insulin-like growth factor expression, but reduced interleukin-5, transforming growth factor-beta, platelet-derived growth factor, and vascular endothelial growth factor mRNA expression. In conclusion, in the present chronic allergic inflammation model, BMDMC therapy was an effective pre-treatment protocol that potentiated airway epithelial cell repair and prevented inflammatory and remodeling processes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Histologic Study of Acute Vocal Fold Wound Healing After Corticosteroid Injection in a Rabbit Model

Objectives: Injectable corticosteroids have been used in phonosurgery to prevent scarring of the vocal fold because of their effects of wound healing, and to ensure better voice quality. We histologically evaluated the effects of dexamethasone sodium phosphate infiltration on acute vocal fold wound healing in rabbits 3 and 7 days after surgically induced injury by quantification of the inflammatory reaction and collagen deposition. Methods: A standardized surgical incision was made in the vocal folds of 12 rabbits, and 0.1 mL dexamethasone sodium phosphate (4 mg/mL) was injected into the left vocal fold. The right vocal fold was not injected and served as the control. The larynges were collected 3 and 7 days after surgery. For histologic analysis, the vocal folds were stained with hematoxylin-eosin for quantification of the inflammatory response and with picrosirius red for qunatification of collagen depostion. Results: There was no quantitative difference in the inflammatory response between vocal folds injected with the corticosteroid and control vocal folds. However, the rate of collage deposition was significantly lower in the corticosteroid-treated group at 3 and 7 days after injury (p = 0.002). Conclusions: The present results suggest that dexamethasone reduces collagen depostion during acute vocal fold wound healing.

Prognostic value of NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression in breast cancer patients

An increasing number of studies have shown altered expression of secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC) and N-myc down-regulated gene (NDRG1) in several malignancies, including breast carcinoma; however, the role of these potential biomarkers in tumor development and progression is controversial. In this study, NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays containing breast tumor specimens from patients with 10 years of follow-up. NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was determined in 596 patients along with other prognostic markers, such as ER, PR, and HER2. The status of NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression was correlated with prognostic variables and patient clinical outcome. Immunostaining revealed that 272 of the 596 cases (45.6%) were positive for NDRG1 and 431 (72.3%) were positive for SPARC. Statistically significant differences were found between the presence of SPARC and NDRG1 protein expression and standard clinicopathological variables. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that NDRG1 positivity was directly associated with shorter disease-free survival (DFS, P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001). In contrast, patients expressing low levels of SPARC protein had worse DFS (P = 0.001) and OS (P = 0.001) compared to those expressing high levels. Combined analysis of the two markers indicated that DFS (P < 0.001) and OS rates (P < 0.001) were lowest for patients with NDRG1-positive and SPARC-negative tumors. Furthermore, NDRG1 over-expression and SPARC down-regulation correlated with poor prognosis in patients with luminal A or triple-negative subtype breast cancer. On multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model, NDRG1 and SPARC protein expression were independent prognostic factors for both DFS and OS of breast cancer patients. These data indicate that NDRG1 over-expression and SPARC down-regulation could play important roles in breast cancer progression and serve as useful biomarkers to better define breast cancer prognosis.

Effect of PaCO(2) variation on standard base excess value in critically ill patients

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of acute PaCO(2) temporal variation on the standard base excess (SBE) value in critically ill patients. Methods: A total of 265 patients were prospectively observed; 158 were allocated to the modeling group, and 107 were allocated to the validation group. Two models were developed in the modeling group (one including and one excluding PaCO(2) as a variable determinant of SBE), and both were tested in the validation group. Results: In the modeling group, the mathematical model including SIDai, SIG, L-lactate, albumin, phosphate, and PaCO(2) had a predictive superiority in comparison with the model without PaCO(2) (R(2) = 0.978 and 0.916, respectively). In the validation group, the results were confirmed with significant F change statistics (R(2) change = 0.059, P < .001) between the model with and without PaCO(2). A high correlation (R = 0.99, P < .001) and agreement (bias = -0.25 mEq/L, limits of agreement 95% = -0.72 to 0.22 mEq/L) were found between the model-predicted SBE value and the SBE calculated using the Van Slyke equation. Conclusions: Acute PaCO(2), temporal variation is related to SBE changes in critically ill patients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extent of Pelvic Lymphadenectomy in Women With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: Is There Any Prognostic Value?

Background and Objectives: Some authors states that the removal of lymph node would only contribute towards assessing the lymph node status and regional disease control, without any benefit for the patients` survival. The aim of this paper was to assess the influence of the number of surgically dissected pelvic lymph nodes (PLN) on disease-free Survival. Methods: Retrospective cohort study on 42 women presenting squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the uterine cervix, with metastases in PLN treated by radical surgery. The Cox model was used to identify risk factors for recurrence. The model variables were adjusted for treatment-related factors (year of treatment, surgical margins and postoperative radiotherapy). The cutoff value for classifying the lymphadenectomy as comprehensive (15 PLN or more) or non-comprehensive (<15 PLN) was determined from analysis of the ROC curve. Results: Fourteen recurrences (32.6%) were recorded: three pelvic, eight distant, two both pelvic and distant, and one at an unknown location. The following risk factors for recurrence were identified: invasion of the deep third of the cervix and number of dissected lymph nodes <15. Conclusions: Deep invasion and non-comprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy are possible risk factors for recurrence of SCC of the uterine cervix with metastases in PLN. J. Surg. Oncol. 2009;100:252-257. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Preliminary findings from a new animal model for Peyronie`s disease involving extracorporeal shock waves

To develop an experimental model in rabbits to analyse the efficiency of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) for Peyronie`s disease. We used 15 adult male rabbits divided into three equal groups. In group 1 (no penile ESWT) rabbits had three sessions of ESWT with 2000 shocks each (15 kV), but a rubber mat was placed between the shock head and rabbit to protect the penis; the rabbits were killed at 7 days after the last session of ESWT. In group 2 the rabbits had three sessions of ESWT using the same parameters, and were killed immediately after the last session to analyse the penis. In group 3 the rabbits had three sessions of ESWT as before but were killed at 7 days after the last session, and the penile tissue analysed macroscopically and histologically. The results showed clearly that the model was efficient, creating a similar situation to that when applying ESWT in the human penis. All of the rabbits in groups 2 and 3 had haematomas and diffuse petechiae after ESWT, and only four had urethral and penile bleeding. Almost all macroscopic changes disappeared after 48 h and only one rabbit in group 3 after 7 days had a haematoma on the dorsal penile surface. The histology (assessed using haematoxylin and eosin staining) of the cavernous body of the penis showed: unchanged histology in group 1; in group 2 there was a dilated and congested vascular space in the cavernous body, with interstitial extensive bleeding in the dermis; and in group 3 there was an increase in interstitial fibrous tissue in the cavernous septum, with deposition of collagen fibres and thickening of the tunica albuginea. The present model was efficient in producing tissue injury in the normal penis when treated with ESWT, suggesting that this promising model should be considered for use future studies of Peyronie`s disease.

The development of a rat model of erectile dysfunction after radical prostatectomy: preliminary findings

To develop a rat model of erectile dysfunction (ED) after cavernous nerve injury. Given the great similarity between the anatomical structure of the cavernous nerve in rats and humans, 24 rats underwent dissections and the cavernous nerves were identified with the aid of an operating microscope. Then the rats were randomized into two groups: sham-operated controls and a bilateral cavernous nerve section group. At 3 months after surgery, the rats were evaluated for their response to an apomorphine challenge. The erectile response after an apomorphine challenge was normal in all the control rats, while there were no erections in the bilateral injured group. The rat major autonomic ganglion and its cavernous nerve can be identified with the aid of a microscope. Rats are inexpensive and easy to handle, thus a good animal for developing an ED model of cavernous nerve injury. In the present study, the rats with cavernous nerve injury lost erectile capacity in a reliable and reproducible fashion. Because of the great similarity between the cavernous nerve of rats and humans, one may consider this technique as a reliable experimental model for studying ED after radical prostatectomy.

Comparative study of pressure- and volume-controlled ventilation on pulse pressure variation in a model of hypovolaemia in rabbits

Background and objective: Dynamic indices represented by systolic pressure variation and pulse pressure variation have been demonstrated to be more accurate than filling pressures in predicting fluid responsiveness. However, the literature is scarce concerning the impact of different ventilatory modes on these indices. We hypothesized that systolic pressure variation or pulse pressure variation could be affected differently by volume-controlled ventilation and pressure-controlled ventilation in an experimental model, during normovolaemia and hypovolaemia. Method: Thirty-two anaesthetized rabbits were randomly allocated into four groups according to ventilatory modality and volaemic status where G1-ConPCV was the pressure-controlled ventilation control group, G2-HemPCV was associated with haemorrhage, G3-ConVCV was the volume-controlled ventilation control group and G4-HemVCV was associated with haemorrhage. In the haemorrhage groups, blood was removed in two stages: 15% of the estimated blood volume withdrawal at M1, and, 30 min later, an additional 15% at M2. Data were submitted to analysis of variance for repeated measures; a value of P < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: At MO (baseline), no significant differences were observed among groups. At M1, dynamic parameters differed significantly among the control and hypovolaemic groups (P < 0.05) but not between ventilation modes. However, when 30% of the estimated blood volume was removed (M2), dynamic parameters became significantly higher in animals under volume-controlled ventilation when compared with those under pressure-controlled ventilation. Conclusions: Under normovolaemia and moderate haemorrhage, dynamic parameters were not influenced by either ventilatory modalities. However, in the second stage of haemorrhage (30%), animals in volume-controlled ventilation presented higher values of systolic pressure variation and pulse pressure variation when compared with those submitted to pressure-controlled ventilation.

Capnography reflects ventilation/perfusion distribution in a model of acute lung injury

Background Changes in the shape of the capnogram may reflect changes in lung physiology. We studied the effect of different ventilation/perfusion ratios (V/Q) induced by positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEP) and lung recruitment on phase III slope (S(III)) of volumetric capnograms. Methods Seven lung-lavaged pigs received volume control ventilation at tidal volumes of 6 ml/kg. After a lung recruitment maneuver, open-lung PEEP (OL-PEEP) was defined at 2 cmH(2)O above the PEEP at the onset of lung collapse as identified by the maximum respiratory compliance during a decremental PEEP trial. Thereafter, six distinct PEEP levels either at OL-PEEP, 4 cmH(2)O above or below this level were applied in a random order, either with or without a prior lung recruitment maneuver. Ventilation-perfusion distribution (using multiple inert gas elimination technique), hemodynamics, blood gases and volumetric capnography data were recorded at the end of each condition (minute 40). Results S(III) showed the lowest value whenever lung recruitment and OL-PEEP were jointly applied and was associated with the lowest dispersion of ventilation and perfusion (Disp(R-E)), the lowest ratio of alveolar dead space to alveolar tidal volume (VD(alv)/VT(alv)) and the lowest difference between arterial and end-tidal pCO(2) (Pa-ETCO(2)). Spearman`s rank correlations between S(III) and Disp(R-E) showed a =0.85 with 95% CI for (Fisher`s Z-transformation) of 0.74-0.91, P < 0.0001. Conclusion In this experimental model of lung injury, changes in the phase III slope of the capnograms were directly correlated with the degree of ventilation/perfusion dispersion.

Neoskin development in the fetus with the use of a three-layer graft: an animal model for in utero closure of large skin defects

Objective: To assess the ability of a three-layer graft in the closuse of large fetal skin defects. Methods: Ovine fetuses underwent a large (4 x 3 cm) full-thickness skin defect over the lumbar region at 105 days` gestation (term = 140 days). A bilaminar artificial skin was placed over a cellulose interface to cover the defect (3-layer graft). The skin was partially reapproximated with a continuous nylon suture. Pregnancy was allowed to continue and the surgical site was submitted to histopathological analysis at different post-operative intervals. Results: Seven fetuses underwent surgery. One maternal/fetal death occurred, and the remaining 6 fetuses were analyzed. Artificial skin adherence to the wound edges was observed in cases that remained in utero for at least 15 days. Neoskin was present beneath the silicone layer of the bilaminar artificial skin. Conclusions: Our study shows that neoskin can develop in the fetus using a 3-layer graft, including epidermal growth beneath the silicone layer of the bilaminar skin graft. These findings suggest that the fetus is able to reepithelialise even large skin defects. Further experience is necessary to assess the quality of this repair.

Impact of a program for the prevention of traffic accidents in a Southern Brazilian city: a model for implementation in a developing country

Background: Traffic accidents constitute the main cause of death in the first decades of life. Traumatic brain injury is the event most responsible for the severity of these accidents. The SBN started an educational program for the prevention of traffic accidents, adapted from the American model ""Think First"" to the Brazilian environment, since 1995, with special effort devoted to the prevention of TBI by using seat belts and motorcycle helmets. The objective of the present study was to set up a traffic accident prevention program based on the adapted Think First and to evaluate its impact by comparing epidemiological variables before and after the beginning of the program. Methods: The program was executed in Maringa city, from September 2004 to August 2005, with educational actions targeting the entire population, especially teenagers and young adults. The program was implemented by building a network of information facilitators and multipliers inside the organized civil society, with widespread population dissemination. To measure the impact of the program, a specific software was developed for the storage and processing of the epidemiological variables. Results: The results showed a reduction of trauma severity due to traffic accidents after the execution of the program, mainly TBI. Conclusions: The adapted Think First was systematically implemented and its impact measured for the first time in Brazil, revealing the usefulness of the program for reducing trauma and TBI severity in traffic accidents through public education and representing a standardized model of implementation in a developing country. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.