Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

Mainstreaming biophilic urbanism in Australian cities : a response to climate change, resource shortages and population pressures

This thesis explored how biophilic urbanism, or the integration of natural features into increasingly dense urban environments, has become mainstream in cities around the world. Fourteen factors uncovered through a case study investigation provide insight for decision makers and change agents in Australia to use biophilic urbanism to address impacts of population growth, climate change and resource shortages. The thesis uses an inductive research approach to explore how barriers to the integration of multi-functional vegetated and water design elements into the built environment, such that these become and standard inclusions in urban design and development processes.

Decline in perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoate serum concentrations in an Australian population from 2002 to 2011

Some perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have become widespread pollutants detected in human and wildlife samples worldwide. The main objective of this study was to assess temporal trends of PFAS concentrations in human blood in Australia over the last decade (2002–2011), taking into consideration age and sex trends. Pooled human sera from 2002/03 (n=26); 2008/09 (n=24) and 2010/11 (n=24) from South East Queensland, Australia were obtained from de-identified surplus pathology samples and compared with samples collected previously from 2006/07 (n=84). A total of 9775 samples in 158 pools were available for assessment of PFASs. Stratification criteria included sex and age: <16 years (2002/03 only); 0–4 (2006/07, 2008/09, 2010/11); 5–15 (2006/07, 2008/09, 2010/11); 16–30; 31–45; 46–60; and >60 years (all collection periods). Sera were analyzed using on-line solid-phase extraction coupled to high-performance liquid chromatography-isotope dilution-tandem mass spectrometry. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was detected in the highest concentrations ranging from 5.3–19.2 ng/ml (2008/09) to 4.4–17.4 ng/ml (2010/11). Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) was detected in the next highest concentration ranging from 2.8–7.3 ng/ml (2008/09) to 3.1–6.5 ng/ml (2010/11). All other measured PFASs were detected at concentrations <1 ng/ml with the exception of perfluorohexane sulfonate which ranged from 1.2–5.7 ng/ml (08/09) and 1.4–5.4 ng/ml (10/11). The mean concentrations of both PFOS and PFOA in the 2010/11 period compared to 2002/03 were lower for all adult age groups by 56%. For 5-15 year olds, the decrease was 66% (PFOS) and 63% (PFOA) from 2002/03 to 2010/11. For 0-4 year olds the decrease from 2006/07 (when data were first available for this age group) was 50% (PFOS) and 22% (PFOA). This study provides strong evidence for decreasing serum PFOS and PFOA concentrations in an Australian population from 2002 through 2011. Age trends were variable and concentrations were higher in males than females. Global use has been in decline since around 2002 and hence primary exposure levels are expected to be decreasing. Further biomonitoring will allow assessment of PFAS exposures to confirm trends in exposure as primary and eventually secondary sources are depleted.

A prospective study of natural recovery from cannabis use in early psychosis

Background and Objectives: Cannabis use is common in early psychosis and has been linked to adverse outcomes. However, factors that influence and maintain change in cannabis use in this population are poorly understood. An existing prospective dataset was used to predict abstinence from cannabis use over the 6 months following inpatient admission for early psychosis. Methods: Participants were 67 inpatients with early psychosis who had used cannabis in the 6 weeks prior to admission. Current diagnoses of psychotic and substance use disorders were confirmed using a clinical checklist and structured diagnostic interview. Measures of clinical, substance use and social and occupational functioning were administered at baseline and at least fortnightly over the 6-month follow up. Results: No substance use or clinical variables were associated with 6-months’ of cannabis abstinence. Only Caucasian ethnicity, living in private accommodation and receiving an income before the admission were predictive. Only private accommodation and receiving an income were significant predictors of abstinence when these variables were entered into a multivariate analysis. Conclusions: While the observed relationships do not necessarily imply causation, they suggest that more optimal substance use outcomes could be achieved by addressing the accommodation and employment needs of patients.

The biology of an isolated population of American Flamingo Phoenicopterus ruber in the Galapagos Islands

A genetically and morphologically divergent population of c.500 American Flamingos, isolated from the parental Caribbean stock of Phoenicopterus ruber, occurs in the Galapagos archipelago. Based primarily on data from a 3-year study, we provide the first description of the feeding and breeding biology of this population. Galapagos provides a suitable habitat comprising lagoons on a number of islands, among which the flamingos travel in response to food and nest site availability. The occurrence and qualnity of some food species was associated with the chlorosity of lagoon water, as was the distribution of flamingos. They bred opportunistically at five lagoons on four islands, sometimes simultaneously on more than one island. Group display usually involved approx 20 birds and colonies contained as few as three nests. Laying occurred during nine months of the year... We review potential dangers to this unique population and suggest conservation measures.

Prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility: a cross-sectional prevalence study

Background Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities face significant challenges from the ageing population and the increasing burden of chronic disease. Foot disease complications are a negative consequence of many chronic diseases. With the rapid expansion of subacute rehabilitation inpatient services, it seems imperative to investigate the prevalence of foot disease and foot disease risk factors in this population. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility. Methods Eligible participants were all adults admitted at least overnight into a large Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility over two different four week periods. Consenting participants underwent a short non-invasive foot examination by a podiatrist utilising the validated Queensland Health High Risk Foot Form to collect data on age, sex, medical co-morbidity history, foot disease risk factor history and clinically diagnosed foot disease complications and foot disease risk factors. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the prevalence of clinically diagnosed foot disease complications, foot disease risk factors and groups of foot disease risk factors. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate any associations between defined explanatory variables and appropriate foot disease outcome variables. Results Overall, 85 (88%) of 97 people admitted to the facility during the study periods consented; mean age 80 (±9) years and 71% were female. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of participants with active foot disease was 11.8% (6.3 – 20.5), 32.9% (23.9 – 43.5) had multiple foot disease risk factors, and overall, 56.5% (45.9 – 66.5) had at least one foot disease risk factor. A self-reported history of peripheral neuropathy diagnosis was independently associated with having multiple foot disease risk factors (OR 13.504, p = 0.001). Conclusion This study highlights the potential significance of the burden of foot disease in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. One in eight subacute inpatients were admitted with active foot disease and one in two with at least one foot disease risk factor in this study. It is recommended that further multi-site studies and management guidelines are required to address the foot disease burden in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Keywords: Subacute; Inpatient; Foot; Complication; Prevalence

The regional distribution of anxiety disorders : implications for the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010

Anxiety disorders are increasingly acknowledged as a global health issue however an accurate picture of prevalence across populations is lacking. Empirical data are incomplete and inconsistent so alternate means of estimating prevalence are required to inform estimates for the new Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used a Bayesian meta-regression approach which included empirical epidemiological data, expert prior information, study covariates and population characteristics. Reported are global and regional point prevalence for anxiety disorders in 2010. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders differed by up to three-fold across world regions, ranging between 2.1% (1.8-2.5%) in East Asia and 6.1% (5.1-7.4%) in North Africa/Middle East. Anxiety was more common in Latin America; high income regions; and regions with a history of recent conflict. There was considerable uncertainty around estimates, particularly for regions where no data were available. Future research is required to examine whether variations in regional distributions of anxiety disorders are substantive differences or an artefact of cultural or methodological differences. This is a particular imperative where anxiety is consistently reported to be less common, and where it appears to be elevated, but uncertainty prevents the reporting of conclusive estimates.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Depressive disorders were a leading cause of burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990 and 2000 studies. Here, we analyze the burden of depressive disorders in GBD 2010 and present severity proportions, burden by country, region, age, sex, and year, as well as burden of depressive disorders as a risk factor for suicide and ischemic heart disease. Methods and Findings Burden was calculated for major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia. A systematic review of epidemiological data was conducted. The data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression. Disability weights from population survey data quantified the severity of health loss from depressive disorders. These weights were used to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Separate DALYs were estimated for suicide and ischemic heart disease attributable to depressive disorders.Depressive disorders were the second leading cause of YLDs in 2010. MDD accounted for 8.2% (5.9%-10.8%) of global YLDs and dysthymia for 1.4% (0.9%-2.0%). Depressive disorders were a leading cause of DALYs even though no mortality was attributed to them as the underlying cause. MDD accounted for 2.5% (1.9%-3.2%) of global DALYs and dysthymia for 0.5% (0.3%-0.6%). There was more regional variation in burden for MDD than for dysthymia; with higher estimates in females, and adults of working age. Whilst burden increased by 37.5% between 1990 and 2010, this was due to population growth and ageing. MDD explained 16 million suicide DALYs and almost 4 million ischemic heart disease DALYs. This attributable burden would increase the overall burden of depressive disorders from 3.0% (2.2%-3.8%) to 3.8% (3.0%-4.7%) of global DALYs. Conclusions GBD 2010 identified depressive disorders as a leading cause of burden. MDD was also a contributor of burden allocated to suicide and ischemic heart disease. These findings emphasize the importance of including depressive disorders as a public-health priority and implementing cost-effective interventions to reduce its burden.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority.

Ecological and Behavioral Methods for the Study of Bats [2nd. Ed.]

"First published in 1988, Ecological and Behavioral Methods for the Study of Bats is widely acknowledged as the primary reference for both amateur and professional bat researchers. Bats are the second most diverse group of mammals on the earth. They live on every continent except Antarctica, ranging from deserts to tropical forests to mountains, and their activities have a profound effect on the ecosystems in which they live. Despite their ubiquity and importance, bats are challenging to study. This volume provides researchers, conservationists, and consultants with the ecological background and specific information essential for studying bats in the wild and in captivity. Chapters detail many of the newest and most commonly used field and laboratory techniques needed to advance the study of bats, describe how these methods are applied to the study of the ecology and behavior of bats, and offer advice on how to interpret the results of research. The book includes forty-three chapters, fourteen of which are new to the second edition, with information on molecular ecology and evolution, bioacoustics, chemical communication, flight dynamics, population models, and methods for assessing postnatal growth and development. Fully illustrated and featuring contributions from the world’s leading experts in bat biology, this reference contains everything bat researchers and natural resource managers need to know for the study and conservation of this wide-ranging, ecologically vital, and diverse taxon."--Publisher website

Lung sickness in Murri kids : a cohort study in urban Indigenous children

QLD, 4Murri Health Group, Caboolture, QLD Introduction Respiratory illnesses with cough as a symptom are predominant causes of morbidity in young Australian Indigenous children. With the exception of ear disease, there are limited studies that have addressed burden and outcome. Also, there are no studies that are specific to urban Indigenous children. Aim: We aim to comprehensively investigate the incidence, aetiology, risk factors for and outcomes of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) in this population. Methods A cohort study of Indigenous children aged less than 5 years registered with an urban Indigenous primary health care service. Comprehensive baseline data are collected and children are followed monthly for 12 months to capture ARI events. ARI events are subsequently followed weekly for 4 weeks to determine cough outcomes, with review by a paediatric respiratory physician if cough has not resolved within 28 days. Results To date, 58 children (57% female) have been enrolled and 46 ARIs have been captured over 907 child weeks of observation (5.1 events per 100 child weeks, 95%CI 3.7–6.8). 13 ARIs (28.3%) have resulted in persistent cough for >28 days following onset. Conclusion Our early findings suggest an excess incidence of ARI in this population. The proportion of ARIs resulting in persistent cough for more than 4 weeks is the highest yet reported. Key Words: Indigenous, acute respiratory illness, paediatric.