Interpersonal understanding and theory of mind

En populär idé inom dagens filosofiska och psykologiska forskning om interpersonlig förståelse, är idén att vi använder en kognitiv funktion (eller metod) för att förstå andra människor, en så kallad ”theory of mind” funktion. Denna idé förekommer inom ett brett vetenskapligt fält så som inom evolutionspsykologi, inom teorier om barns utveckling, inom teorier om autism, samt inom emotionsfilosofi och moralfilosofi. Avsikten i denna studie är att se närmare på vissa inflytelserika filosofiska och psykologiska teorier om interpersonlig förståelse, teorier som också har en stark koppling till empirisk forskning. I arbetet hävdar Gustafsson att teorierna ifråga avspeglar vissa klassiska, filosofiskt problematiska, antaganden. Dessa antaganden präglar teorierna ifråga samt påverkar hur de empiriska undersökningarna byggs upp och hur resultat tolkas.

Conflicting genomes, the demic theory & biodiversity

Organismic-centered Darwinism, in order to use direct phenotypes to measure natural selection's effect, necessitates genome's harmony and uniform coherence plus large population sizes. However, modern gene-centered Darwinism has found new interpretations to data that speak of genomic incoherence and disharmony. As a result of these two conflicting positions a conceptual crisis in Biology has arisen. My position is that the presence of small, even pocket-size, demes is instrumental in generating divergence and phenotypic crisis. Moreover, the presence of parasitic genomes as in acanthocephalan worms, which even manipulate suicidal behavior in their hosts; segregation distorters that change meiosis and Mendelian ratios; selfish genes and selfish whole chromosomes, such as the case of B-chromosomes in grasshoppers; P-elements in Drosophila; driving Y-chromosomes that manipulate sex ratios making males more frequent, as in Hamilton's X-linked drive; male strategists and outlaw genes, are eloquent examples of the presence of real conflicting genomes and of a non-uniform phenotypic coherence and genome harmony. Thus, we are proposing that overall incoherence and disharmony generate disorder but also more biodiversity and creativeness. Finally, if genes can manipulate natural selection, they can multiply mutations or undesirable characteristics and even lethal or detrimental ones, hence the accumulation of genetic loads. Outlaw genes can change what is adaptively convenient even in the direction of the trait that is away from the optimum. The optimum can be "negotiated" among the variants, not only because pleiotropic effects demand it, but also, in some cases, because selfish, outlaw, P-elements or extended phenotypic manipulation require it. With organismic Darwinism the genome in the population and in the individual was thought to act harmoniously without conflicts, and genotypes were thought to march towards greater adaptability. Modern Darwinism has a gene-centered vision in which genes, as natural selection's objects can move in dissonance in the direction which benefits their multiplication. Thus, we have greater opportunities for genomes in permanent conflict.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Selection of patients for myocardial perfusion scintigraphy based on fuzzy sets theory applied to clinical-epidemiological data and treadmill test results

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a worldwide leading cause of death. The standard method for evaluating critical partial occlusions is coronary arteriography, a catheterization technique which is invasive, time consuming, and costly. There are noninvasive approaches for the early detection of CAD. The basis for the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD has been laid in a sequential analysis of the risk factors, and the results of the treadmill test and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS). Many investigators have demonstrated that the diagnostic applications of MPS are appropriate for patients who have an intermediate likelihood of disease. Although this information is useful, it is only partially utilized in clinical practice due to the difficulty to properly classify the patients. Since the seminal work of Lotfi Zadeh, fuzzy logic has been applied in numerous areas. In the present study, we proposed and tested a model to select patients for MPS based on fuzzy sets theory. A group of 1053 patients was used to develop the model and another group of 1045 patients was used to test it. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the performance of the fuzzy model against expert physician opinions, and showed that the performance of the fuzzy model was equal or superior to that of the physicians. Therefore, we conclude that the fuzzy model could be a useful tool to assist the general practitioner in the selection of patients for MPS.

A phonological and tonal analysis of Samue using Optimality Theory

The topic of the present doctoral dissertation is the analysis of the phonological and tonal structures of a previously largely undescribed language, namely Samue. It is a Gur language belonging to the Niger-Congo language phulym, which is spoken in Burkina Faso. The data were collected during the fieldwork period in a Sama village; the data include 1800 lexical items, thousands of elicited sentences and 30 oral texts. The data were first transcribed phonetically and then the phonological and tonal analyses were conducted. The results show that the phonological system of Samue with the phoneme inventory and phonological processes has the same characteristics as other related Gur languages, although some particularities were found, such as the voicing and lenition of stop consonants in medial positions. Tonal analysis revealed three level tones, which have both lexical and grammatical functions. A particularity of the tonal system is the regressive Mid tone spreading in the verb phrase. The theoretical framework used in the study is Optimality theory. Optimality theory is rarely used in the analysis of an entire language system, and thus an objective was to see whether the theory was applicable to this type of work. Within the tonal analysis especially, some language specific constraints had to be created, although the basic Optimality Theory principle is the universal nature of the constraints. These constraints define the well-formedness of the language structures and they are differently ranked in different languages. This study gives new insights about typological phenomena in Gur languages. It is also a fundamental starting point for the Samue language in relation to the establishment of an orthography. From the theoretical point of view, the study proves that Optimality theory is largely applicable in the analysis of an entire sound system.

Determination of potential value drivers by identifying customer expectations and perceived value

The purpose of this exploratory research is to identify the potential value drivers regarding a new service offering. More specifically, the aim is to build understanding of customer expectations and perceived value of energy efficiency solutions in the building’s sector. The knowledge is then used in defining potential value drivers. The research is conducted from the customer’s perspective in a business-to-business context. The theory part of the master’s thesis focuses on discussing the antecedents of customer expectations and customer value. The theory gives implications how to determine value drivers and develop value propositions as well as conduct value assessment. The empirical part is based on the qualitative research method. The research was conducted as a single-case study, and the primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews with potential customers. The results of the research revealed that the customer expectations are connected to being able to define value drivers. In addition, the research revealed generic themes relating to the offering and customer-supplier relationship, which help in the process of identifying potential value drivers. The results were discussed in terms of product-, service-, price- and relationship-related value drivers for the new service. Based on the data analysis the dominant value drivers are elaborated in terms of identified customer benefits and customer sacrifices (costs). Finally, some implications of value proposition and value assessment to support the value delivery were given.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Extreme Observables and Optimal Measurements in Quantum Theory

Optimization of quantum measurement processes has a pivotal role in carrying out better, more accurate or less disrupting, measurements and experiments on a quantum system. Especially, convex optimization, i.e., identifying the extreme points of the convex sets and subsets of quantum measuring devices plays an important part in quantum optimization since the typical figures of merit for measuring processes are affine functionals. In this thesis, we discuss results determining the extreme quantum devices and their relevance, e.g., in quantum-compatibility-related questions. Especially, we see that a compatible device pair where one device is extreme can be joined into a single apparatus essentially in a unique way. Moreover, we show that the question whether a pair of quantum observables can be measured jointly can often be formulated in a weaker form when some of the observables involved are extreme. Another major line of research treated in this thesis deals with convex analysis of special restricted quantum device sets, covariance structures or, in particular, generalized imprimitivity systems. Some results on the structure ofcovariant observables and instruments are listed as well as results identifying the extreme points of covariance structures in quantum theory. As a special case study, not published anywhere before, we study the structure of Euclidean-covariant localization observables for spin-0-particles. We also discuss the general form of Weyl-covariant phase-space instruments. Finally, certain optimality measures originating from convex geometry are introduced for quantum devices, namely, boundariness measuring how ‘close’ to the algebraic boundary of the device set a quantum apparatus is and the robustness of incompatibility quantifying the level of incompatibility for a quantum device pair by measuring the highest amount of noise the pair tolerates without becoming compatible. Boundariness is further associated to minimum-error discrimination of quantum devices, and robustness of incompatibility is shown to behave monotonically under certain compatibility-non-decreasing operations. Moreover, the value of robustness of incompatibility is given for a few special device pairs.

Explaining the intention to play and behavior of playing sports betting games of young Finnish adults : an application of the theory of planned behavior

The aim of this Master’s Thesis was to examine the determinants of intention and behavior of playing sports betting games in order to explain the intention to play in a more precise way and to be able to understand the behavior of playing. The theory of planned behavior was applied in explaining the intention of young Finnish adults aged 18 to 34. A quantitative research method was applied and an online survey was sent to the students of Lappeenranta University of Technology and to the subscribers of Urheilulehti in order to reach a sample that present the young population of Finland. The theory of the study focused on the theory of planned behavior and its antecedents, attitude towards behavior, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control as well as motivation. By analyzing the data, causal relationships were found through which the explanation of intention was possible. The results showed that attitude towards playing, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and motivation impact the formation of intention significantly. The results also indicated that intention impacts significantly to the playing frequency.