Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Applied to the Design of an Innovative Drying Process for Sewage Sludge

Most adverse environmental impacts result from design decisions made long before manufacturing or usage. In order to prevent this situation, several authors have proposed the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) at the very first phases of the design of a process, a product or a service. The study in this paper presents an innovative thermal drying process for sewage sludge called fry-drying, in which dewatered sludge is directly contacted in the dryer with hot recycled cooking oils (RCO) as the heat medium. Considering the practical difficulties for the disposal of these two wastes, fry-drying presents a potentially convenient method for their combined elimination by incineration of the final fry-dried sludge. An analytical comparison between a conventional drying process and the new proposed fry-drying process is reported, with reference to some environmental impact categories. The results of this study, applied at the earliest stages of the design of the process, assist evaluation of the feasibility of such system compared to a current disposal process for the drying and incineration of sewage sludge.

An Internet-based telerehabilitation system for the assessment of motor speech disorders: A pilot study

Purpose: This pilot study explored the feasibility and effectiveness of an Internet-based telerehabilitation application for the assessment of motor speech disorders in adults with acquired neurological impairment. Method: Using a counterbalanced, repeated measures research design, 2 speech-language pathologists assessed 19 speakers with dysarthria on a battery of perceptual assessments. The assessments included a 19-item version of the Frenchay Dysarthria Assessment (FDA; P. Enderby, 1983), the Assessment of Intelligibility of Dysarthric Speech (K. M. Yorkston & D. R. Beukelman, 1981), perceptual analysis of a speech sample, and an overall rating of severity of the dysarthria. One assessment was conducted in the traditional face-to-face manner, whereas the other assessment was conducted using an online, custom-built telerehabilitation application. This application enabled real-time videoconferencing at 128 kb/s and the transfer of store-and-forward audio and video data between the speaker and speech-language pathologist sites. The assessment methods were compared using the J.M.Bland and D.G.Altman (1986, 1999) limits-of-agreement method and percentage level of agreement between the 2 methods. Results: Measurements of severity of dysarthria, percentage intelligibility in sentences, and most perceptual ratings made in the telerehabilitation environment were found to fall within the clinically acceptable criteria. However, several ratings on the FDA were not comparable between the environments, and explanations for these results were explored. Conclusions: The online assessment of motor speech disorders using an Internet-based telerehabilitation system is feasible. This study suggests that with additional refinement of the technology and assessment protocols, reliable assessment of motor speech disorders over the Internet is possible. Future research methods are outlined.

Assessment of statistical change criteria used to define significant change in neuropsychological test performance following cardiac surgery

Objective: This paper compares four techniques used to assess change in neuropsychological test scores before and after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), and includes a rationale for the classification of a patient as overall impaired. Methods: A total of 55 patients were tested before and after surgery on the MicroCog neuropsychological test battery. A matched control group underwent the same testing regime to generate test–retest reliabilities and practice effects. Two techniques designed to assess statistical change were used: the Reliable Change Index (RCI), modified for practice, and the Standardised Regression-based (SRB) technique. These were compared against two fixed cutoff techniques (standard deviation and 20% change methods). Results: The incidence of decline across test scores varied markedly depending on which technique was used to describe change. The SRB method identified more patients as declined on most measures. In comparison, the two fixed cutoff techniques displayed relatively reduced sensitivity in the detection of change. Conclusions: Overall change in an individual can be described provided the investigators choose a rational cutoff based on likely spread of scores due to chance. A cutoff value of ≥20% of test scores used provided acceptable probability based on the number of tests commonly encountered. Investigators must also choose a test battery that minimises shared variance among test scores.

Fitness assessment of document model

Document classification is a supervised machine learning process, where predefined category labels are assigned to documents based on the hypothesis derived from training set of labelled documents. Documents cannot be directly interpreted by a computer system unless they have been modelled as a collection of computable features. Rogati and Yang [M. Rogati and Y. Yang, Resource selection for domain-specific cross-lingual IR, in SIGIR 2004: Proceedings of the 27th annual international conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval, ACM Press, Sheffied: United Kingdom, pp. 154-161.] pointed out that the effectiveness of document classification system may vary in different domains. This implies that the quality of document model contributes to the effectiveness of document classification. Conventionally, model evaluation is accomplished by comparing the effectiveness scores of classifiers on model candidates. However, this kind of evaluation methods may encounter either under-fitting or over-fitting problems, because the effectiveness scores are restricted by the learning capacities of classifiers. We propose a model fitness evaluation method to determine whether a model is sufficient to distinguish positive and negative instances while still competent to provide satisfactory effectiveness with a small feature subset. Our experiments demonstrated how the fitness of models are assessed. The results of our work contribute to the researches of feature selection, dimensionality reduction and document classification.

The application of numerical modelling to the assessment of the potential for, and the detection of, spontaneous combustion in coal mines

Numerical modelling has been used to examine the relationship between the results of two commonly used methods of assessing the propensity of coal to spontaneous combustion, the R70 and Relative Ignition Temperature tests, and the likely behaviour in situ. The criticality of various parameters has been examined and a method of utilising critical self-heating parameters has been developed. This study shows that on their own, the laboratory test results do not provide a reliable guide to in situ behaviour but can be used in combination to considerably increase the ability to predict spontaneous combustion behaviour.

Project-based assessment for graduate coursework in physics

Project-based assessment, in the form of take-home exams, was trialed in an honours/masters level electromagnetic theory course. This assessment formed an integral part of the learning experience of the students, and students felt that this was effective method of learning.

Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment

This paper presents a method to analyze the first order eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to the operating parameters of a power system. The method is based on explicitly expressing the system state matrix into sub-matrices. The eigenvalue sensitivity is calculated based on the explicitly formed system state matrix. The 4th order generator model and 4th order exciter system model are used to form the system state matrix. A case study using New England 10-machine 39-bus system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. This method can be applied into large scale power system eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to operating parameters.

Optimum switching point assessment of parallel braking resistor and serial current limiter for power system stability enhancement

A new control algorithm using parallel braking resistor (BR) and serial fault current limiter (FCL) for power system transient stability enhancement is presented in this paper. The proposed control algorithm can prevent transient instability during first swing by immediately taking away the transient energy gained in faulted period. It can also reduce generator oscillation time and efficiently make system back to the post-fault equilibrium. The algorithm is based on a new system energy function based method to choose optimal switching point. The parallel BR and serial FCL resistor can be switched at the calculated optimal point to get the best control result. This method allows optimum dissipation of the transient energy caused by disturbance so to make system back to equilibrium in minimum time. Case studies are given to verify the efficiency and effectiveness of this new control algorithm.

Differential evolution based total transfer capability assessment with optimal dispatch

In this paper, a new differential evolution (DE) based power system optimal available transfer capability (ATC) assessment is presented. Power system total transfer capability (TTC) is traditionally solved by the repeated power flow (RPF) method and the continuation power flow (CPF) method. These methods are based on the assumption that the productions of the source area generators are increased in identical proportion to balance the load increment in the sink area. A new approach based on DE algorithm to generate optimal dispatch both in source area generators and sink area loads is proposed in this paper. This new method can compute ATC between two areas with significant improvement in accuracy compared with the traditional RPF and CPF based methods. A case study using a 30 bus system is given to verify the efficiency and effectiveness of this new DE based ATC optimization approach.

A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

Assessment of motor speech disorders online: A pilot study

We have conducted a preliminary validation of an Internet-based telehealth application for assessing motor speech disorders in adults with acquired neurological impairment. The videoconferencing module used NetMeeting software to provide realtime videoconferencing through a 128 kbit/s Internet link, as well as the transfer of store-and-forward video and audio data from the participant to the clinician. Ten participants with dysarthria following acquired brain injury were included in the study. An assessment of the overall severity of the speech disturbance was made for each participant face to face (FTF) and in the online environment, in addition, a 23-item version of the Frenchay Dysarthria Assessment (FDA) (which measures motor speech function) and the Assessment of Intelligibility of Dysarthric Speech (ASSIDS) (which gives the percentage word and sentence intelligibility, words per minute and a rating of communication efficiency) were administered in both environments. There was a 90% level of agreement between the two assessment environments for the rating of overall severity of dysarthria. A 70-100% level of agreement was achieved for 17 (74%) of the 23 FDA variables. On the ASSIDS there was a significant difference between the FTF and online assessments only for percentage word intelligibility. These findings suggest that Internet-based assessment has potential as a reliable method for assessing motor speech disorders.

Practical assessment of neural network applications

This paper reports the initial results of a joint research project carried out by Aston University and Lloyd's Register to develop a practical method of assessing neural network applications. A set of assessment guidelines for neural network applications were developed and tested on two applications. These case studies showed that it is practical to assess neural networks in a statistical pattern recognition framework. However there is need for more standardisation in neural network technology and a wider takeup of good development practice amongst the neural network community.

A novel, dynamic, in vivo, non-contact method of measuring oxygen depletion rate of the anterior eye

Despite the importance of oxygen measurements, techniques have been limited by their invasive nature and small corneal area of assessment. The aim of this study was to assess a non-contact way of measuring oxygen uptake of the whole anterior eye.