Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Morphological Notes on the Worker and Queen Larvae of the Thief Ant Solenopsis helena (Hymenoptera, Formicidae, Myrmicinae) from Brazil

Young and mature larvae of queen and workers of the thief ant, Solenopsis helena, are herein described for the first time. Specimens were treated and described by usual methods of light and scanning electron microscopy. Many of the observed characteristics confirmed traits of the thief ant larva, reinforcing the assumption that they are a distinct group from fire ants. The larva of S. helena can be recognized from other close species by details of the mouthparts, but seem extensively similar to Solenopsis molesta. These findings are useful for taxonomic studies and phylogenetic inferences.

O parto dos caminhos: Formação dos Sindicatos Rurais no Rio Grande do Norte (1960 - 1964)

The present work treats the movements dedicated to reinvidication per land and social rights for the field works, among 1960 and 1964. Trying to understand this question in the Rio Grande do Norte it is necessary to consider the connection between the catholic church and the rural syndicates besides the influence of the Brazilian communist party, and still other social movements and the state. The structures politics local, national and international, had considerable importance to the organization rural potiguares workers. The rural potiguares syndicate appear in 1961 - after a hard organization work starting of the Service of Rural Assistance - and expand itself through state until the middle of 1962. Soon the first big conflicts an important manifestation are perceive, indirectly referring to a increasing movement's performance. The Favoring Progresses chains co quested a biggest influence in the politics destiny of the Rio Grande do Norte, in front of integration among syndicates, educational projects, and favoring progress's politics. But the military coup hired that the hope overflow the field

Evangelizar e politizar :O sentido da atuação da Igreja Católica com os sindicatos dos trabalhadores rurais no Seridó potiguar (1964-1979)

The purpose of this work is to analyze the influence of the Catholic Church on rural worker s union in the Seridó potiguar region between 1964 to 1979. To the work developed by the Church is connected the beginning of worker s union in the Seridó region. In this way, this research tries to understand what is also the politic direction of the labor s union by means of the Cathólic Church that througt a process of creating Leagues have been looking for reinforcing and protecting catholicism as a way of maintaining its believers and distancing them from others movements such as Peasant League and the influence of Brazilian Communist Party. We use as sources oral narratives and newspaper A Folha , wich was published by the Parish Church of Caicó (RN) between 1954 to 1967. Some wrintten documents produced by worker s union from the Seridó region were also used

Movement of Spodoptera frugiperda Adults (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Maize in Brazil

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), is one of the most important maize pests in the Americas and particularly in South America. With the adoption of genetically modified plants expressing Bacillus thuringiensis toxins for lepidopterous pest control, there is a need for establishing strategies to delay the development of insect resistance (e.g. refuge areas). Thus, information on target insects' dispersal is essential to improve pest management techniques. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dispersal capacity of S. frugiperda adults using mark-release-recapture techniques. Insects were marked using red oil-soluble dye in the larval artificial diet. Marked adults were released twice in each growing season (dry and wet) in southeastern Brazil in 2006 and 2007. Recapture of marked insects was performed using light and pheromone traps. Males are more attracted to light traps than females and the recapture rate was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of recaptured insects is y = a(2)/ (1+ (2a(1.8)+ bx))((2.6)), where y is the distance and x is the number captured. The maximum recapture distances were 806 m for males and 608 m for females. Therefore, strategies for establishment of refuges should take such distances into consideration.

PLANFOR: política compensatória para a inclusão na informalidade?

Study about the national politics on the professional education, under responsibility of the brazilian Work Department in 1990 years. Purposes to apprehend the results of the actions of the professional education in a basic level, offered by the National Plan of the worker qualification ( PLANFOR ), as well as the effects on the assisted exits, starting from the experience appreciated on the Plan of Qualification developed in the state of Maranhão between 1996 to 2000. It adopts a theoretical-methodological conception by an ontological nature, if being worth of categories as the one of totality and of mediation that together, makes possible the apprehension of a dialectical movement that happens among the analysis object, the professional education politics in a basic level, performed by PLANFOR and your context, the underdevelop and heterogeneous Brazilian capitalism and the consequent job market generalized precarious and informal, making possible that the reality investigated become to understood rationally. This paper uses the indirect documentation technique, instruments of the bibliographical research and documental research. This study is based on those that aren´t part of PLANFOR, qualified by professional education courses in basic level,they didn't get to be inserts at the formal job market, just occupying precarious occupations in the informal job market. Aims to presents and discusses the productive process and your restructuring globally in progress. It focuses at the impacts on the workers, the precariousness of the work that appears like a new phenomenon calls new informality. Talks about the particularity process of productive restructuring assumed in Brazil highlights, showing that the informality, was always a structural phenomenon in the country. Discusses about the professional qualification in the contemporary capitalism, specifying some of your theses. Shows in a historical view the process of appearance of the employment notions and competence, and the influence that it exercised on the reforms of the basic and professional education, as well as the implications of both in the politics of professional education in the country. Rescues the process of creation of PLANFOR, your official formulations and your organized bases, starting from the second half of the 1990 decade. Shows yet the continuos changes in the job market of Maranhão state, for after, starting from the reports expresses at the Plans of Qualification from the state, elaborated by the Group of Evaluation and Studies of the Poverty and the Politics addressed to the poverty from the Master degree Program in Public Politics, from the Federal University of Maranhão, analyzing the acting of PLANFOR in the State, your probable deficiencies, as results the changes verified in the conditions of occupation and the gains of the exits from the professional education courses in basic level

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Behavioural responses of workers towards worker-produced male larvae and queen-produced worker larvae in Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus Forel, 1911 (Hym., Formicidae)

Leaf-cutting ant workers care for larvae with an elaborate behavioural repertoire to satisfy the needs of the offspring. In order to investigate worker discrimination ability in the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus, we compared the behavioural responses of workers towards worker-produced male larvae and queen-produced worker larvae, including the following behavioural acts: licking the larval body, transporting larvae, feeding larvae with hyphae, scraping larval mouth parts, ingesting faecal fluid excreted by the larva, and inserting hyphae of the symbiontic fungus on the larval body. We verified that workers behaved differently depending on larval origin, i.e. licking the larval body, transporting larvae and inserting hyphae of the symbiontic fungus on the larval body. Observed differences denote the ability of workers in discriminating among larvae, probably because of their different individual needs.

Worker laying in leafcutter ant Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus (Formicidae, Attini)

We studied the process of offspring production in queenless colonies of Acromyrmex subterraneus brunneus, and particularly evaluated the ovary development of workers as a function of their age. For this, subcolonies were set up and evaluated at different periods of isolation from the queen (2, 4 and 6 months), besides individually labeled age groups. The subcolonies were assessed according to offspring production and ovaries containing oocytes or not. The evaluations showed worker oviposition and development of males originating from worker-laid eggs. At 2 months'absence of the queen, eggs and larvae were found, with eggs in a higher proportion than larvae. After 4 months, the proportion of eggs had reduced while larvae had increased, and a pupa was found in one subcolony. At 6 months, besides a higher share of larvae, one pupa and one adult male were found. Dissection of workers revealed ovaries containing oocytes during the periods of evaluation. Only a group of medium-sized and large workers, 23.3%, 20.9% and 37.5% of the population from each period assessed in queenless subcolonies respectively, presented developed oocytes in the ovary. The same was observed in colonies with a queen, with 17.6%, 19.6% and 7.8% of the group of dissected workers from each time period, respectively. With respect to worker age, we observed by dissection of the ovary, that the greatest percentage of individuals with ovarioles containing oocytes occurred at 45 days (6 weeks) up to 90 days (12 weeks). These results probably are associated with the workers reproduction and the laying of trophic and reproductive eggs in colonies with and without a queen; these eggs have distinct functions in each situation.

About the Use of the HdHr Algorithm Group in Integrating the Movement Equation with Nonlinear Terms

This work summarizes the HdHr group of Hermitian integration algorithms for dynamic structural analysis applications. It proposes a procedure for their use when nonlinear terms are present in the equilibrium equation. The simple pendulum problem is solved as a first example and the numerical results are discussed. Directions to be pursued in future research are also mentioned. Copyright (C) 2009 H.M. Bottura and A. C. Rigitano.

A assistência técnica e extensão rural no assentamento modelo: proposição e realidade

This discourse analyzes the technical assistance concerning the rural settlement, which is seen as a demand of the social movement that claims for agrarian reformation, and is a goal of II PNRA, launched in may 2004, as a essential national public politics on process of building and consolidation of settlement and familiar agriculture, proposing the return of technical assistance service and rural extension in Brazil, which were started in the and of 1940 s. We analyze, in particular, the technical assistance program, social and environmental agrarian reformation, on model settlement, a program created, especially, to the rural settlements, coordinated by INCRA. Based on the documental analyze and local study, it is noticed that the experience of technical assistance implemented on model settlement shows the non continuation and fragility on technical assistance actions to rural workers. This context goes against the lately technical assistance governmental apparatus, which ensures to make settlements stronger, to support and to get important the familiar agriculture system. This way, technical assistance execution, trough the tertiary service, follows the neoliberal strategy and, the State, besides decreases the estimate to public politics, takes its actions control from the State to the shared control through partnership and transferring of responsibility, expressing its historic lack of attention to the worker class demands. In spite of workers resistance, expectative and hope, the lack of these services, as well as the other politics deficiencies, which are necessary to the settlements, are endangering its activities and threatening its survival in the settlement

Ofensiva do Capital e Desmobilização das Forças do Trabalho: As Estratégias Gerenciais Burguesas para a Desarticulação das Classes Trabalhadoras

The problematic that gives shape to this research is the question of the historical process of demobilization of the movement of the working classes in your accented contemporary moment. Their object of study, however, and that it particularizes, it relates to a portion this problematic; it relates to set of determinations that comprise a broader set of determinations of this historical process: it is a set of determinations forged and mediated by bourgeois strategies of management for the conformation of the circumstances necessary for the domination and for the conduct of labor force on operations in work processes for the production of surplus value. What we investigated are, because, the strategies of disarticulation that the bourgeoisie utilizes, under the mantle of subsidies conceptual and interventive of its management of work processes and the sieve of class struggles, to obstruct the union of workers; hamper the movements proletarians. Managerial strategies that intentionally or unintentionally, instill in the social relations of production means to produce and reproduce, activate and reactivate conditions of incitement of individualism and competition between the workers themselves. We shall see, thus, by analyzing means, centrally, from some of the fundamentals of disarticulation in the managerial strategies bourgeois and some of the fundamental strategies of management bourgeois hegemonized with the restructuring productive of 1970, that the disarticulation, and also the demobilization, is a concrete condition, is an objective condition, that is beyond a question that can be "solved" only by enlightenment cognitive, only by formation criticism intellectual. In everyday of the work spaces permeated by managerial strategies bourgeois there elements, then, operating as a material force putting difficulties important for the articulation of the workers, the solidarity of the proletariat; elements that constitute obstacle significant to an awareness of class and belonging; elements act in favor of the atomization of the worker - even if engenders, in the same process, as a contradiction, potentiality of resistance and fight the forces of labor

As condições de trabalho na área de saúde e o processo de adoecimento da (o) assistente social

The requirements in the world of work in the contemporary impact on quality of life, health workers in their relations with users and other professionals of the healthcare team. Given this reality, this study discusses the working conditions in health and disease process of (a) having social goals as analyze the implications of working conditions in the disease (the) social workers in state hospitals Metropolitan Region Christmas (NMR); identify the main diseases affecting social workers in hospitals in the SESAP NMR and reveal the relationship between the disease processes of social and working conditions in hospitals in the state NMR. The research was guiding questions to reveal how to configure the work, conditions of work and of the disease process (the) social worker. To grasp the socioeconomic profile of (the) social workers, the characterization of the work, duties and responsibilities in the sociooccupational, factors that interfere with the disease process of (the) social workers of RMN, and actions and investments Policy on Occupational Health RN correlating to illness today is that we set for the unveiling of the movement of the object of study through the methodological approach with documentary research aimed at literature review; extensive direct observation correlated to real life observation and application of 66 (sixty-six) questionnaires. The data from the closed questions were treated using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The open questions were transcribed and then analyzed the light of theoretical work on the subject. The research reveals that social workers are subject to conditions and labor relations precarious illness causing health problems because some of these professionals, among them are: stress, allergies and skin conditions or, Read / WMSD among other diseases. Thus, we understand the need for debates about the relationship work (the) social worker and worker health before the contradictions of capital also present in public health services