Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

Integration of Torrefaction with Steam Power Plant

Torrefaction is one of the pretreatment technologies to enhance the fuel characteristics of biomass. The efficient and continuous operation of a torrefaction reactor, in the commercial scale, demands a secure biomass supply, in addition to adequate source of heat. Biorefinery plants or biomass-fuelled steam power plants have the potential to integrate with the torrefaction reactor to exchange heat and mass, using available infrastructure and energy sources. The technical feasibility of this integration is examined in this study. A new model for the torrefaction process is introduced and verified by the available experimental data. The torrefaction model is then integrated in different steam power plants to simulate possible mass and energy exchange between the reactor and the plants. The performance of the integrated plant is investigated for different configurations and the results are compared.

Design of a 1 kW 150 rpm permanent-magnet synchronous generator for stand-alone wind-power applications

A program for calculating low-speed low-power synchronous machine is presented. A permanent-magnet synchronous generator for 1 kW 150 rpm is designed. Optimization of magnet’s and coil’s dimensions was made.

Optimization of a dynamic district heating power plant

The purpose of this Thesis is to find the most optimal heat recovery solution for Wärtsilä’s dynamic district heating power plant considering Germany energy markets as in Germany government pays subsidies for CHP plants in order to increase its share of domestic power production to 25 % by 2020. Different heat recovery connections have been simulated dozens to be able to determine the most efficient heat recovery connections. The purpose is also to study feasibility of different heat recovery connections in the dynamic district heating power plant in the Germany markets thus taking into consideration the day ahead electricity prices, district heating network temperatures and CHP subsidies accordingly. The auxiliary cooling, dynamical operation and cost efficiency of the power plant is also investigated.

Developing construction site operations for EPC power plant projects

The purpose of this thesis is to find development areas for site operations in power plant construction projects delivered by Wärtsilä. The inspected operations are subcontractor management, site material management and work scheduling. The contractor's role in EPC project is to respond for engineering, procurement, and construction supervision. Geographical and cultural differences brings challenges for finding development areas as Wärtsilä delivers projects world-wide. Searching for development area is mainly made with survey, which answers were collected from the target company's site personnel. Based on the results, with good planning and preparation various problems would be avoided. An external view for the thesis was collected by an expert interview, which was held to three expe-rienced construction operating executives. Interviewees believed that with the se-lection of right site personnel and clearly defined areas of responsibility will great-ly affect the outcome of the project. Some of the theory has been collected from areas, which have helped to under-stand the inspected operations on site. Improving competence knowledge has been important due to the broad scope of work and the author’s inexperience of the topic. Also generally effective practices from construction projects has been col-lected to the theory part. Functionality of general practices have been reflected together with the results of empirically collected data for Wärtsilä's projects. As a result, a model was generated where development proposals and the benefits from new procedures were presented.

Large scale solar power plant flat roof and carport installation in Finland

This work focuses on the 159.5 kW solar photovoltaic power plant project installed at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in 2013 as an example of what a solar plant project could be in Finland. The project consists of a two row carport and a flat roof installation on the roof of the university laboratories. The purpose of this project is not only its obvious energy savings potential but also to serve as research and teaching laboratory tool. By 2013, there were not many large scale solar power plants in Finland. For this reason, the installation and data experience from the solar power plant at LUT has brought valuable information for similar projects in northern countries. This work includes a first part for the design and acquisition of the project to continue explaining about the components and their installation. At the end, energy produced by this solar power plant is studied and calculated to find out some relevant economical results. For this, the radiation arriving to southern Finland, the losses of the system in cold weather and the impact of snow among other aspects are taken into account.

Optimal processing chain for waste power plant

This study is done to examine waste power plant’s optimal processing chain and it is important to consider from several points of view on why one option is better than the other. This is to insure that the right decision is made. Incineration of waste has devel-oped to be one decent option for waste disposal. There are several legislation matters and technical options to consider when starting up a waste power plant. From the tech-niques pretreatment, burner and flue gas cleaning are the biggest ones to consider. The treatment of incineration residues is important since it can be very harmful for the envi-ronment. The actual energy production from waste is not highly efficient and there are several harmful compounds emitted. Recycling of waste before incineration is not very typical and there are not many recycling options for materials that cannot be easily re-cycled to same product. Life cycle assessment is a good option for studying the envi-ronmental effect of the system. It has four phases that are part of the iterative study process. In this study the case environment is a waste power plant. The modeling of the plant is done with GaBi 6 software and the scope is from gate-to-grave. There are three different scenarios, from which the first and second are compared to each other to reach conclusions. Zero scenario is part of the study to demonstrate situation without the power plant. The power plant in this study is recycling some materials in scenario one and in scenario two even more materials and utilize the bottom ash more ways than one. The model has the substitutive processes for the materials when they are not recycled in the plant. The global warming potential results show that scenario one is the best option. The variable costs that have been considered tell the same result. The conclusion is that the waste power plant should not recycle more and utilize bottom ash in a number of ways. The area is not ready for that kind of utilization and production from recycled materials.

Effect of Material Recycling on the Feasibility of Solid Recovered Fuel Fired Power Plant

This master’s thesis examines the effects of increased material recycling on different waste-to-energy concepts. With background study and a developed techno-economic computational method the feasibility of chosen scenarios with different combinations of mechanical treatment and waste firing technologies can be evaluated. The background study covers the waste scene of Finland, and potential market areas Poland and France. Calculated cases concentrate on municipal solid waste treatment in the Finnish operational environment. The chosen methodology to approach the objectives is techno-economic feasibility assessment. It combines calculation methods of literature and practical engineering to define the material and energy balances in chosen scenarios. The calculation results together with other operational and financial data can be concluded to net present values compared between the scenarios. For the comparison, four scenarios, most vital and alternative between each other, are established. The baseline scenario is grate firing of source separated mixed municipal solid waste. Second scenario is fluidized bed combustion of solid recovered fuel produced in mechanical treatment process with metal separation. Third scenario combines a biomaterial separation process to the solid recovered fuels preparation and in the last scenario plastics are separated in addition to the previous operations. The results indicated that the mechanical treatment scenarios still need to overcome some problems to become feasible. Problems are related to profitability, residue disposal and technical reliability. Many uncertainties are also related to the data gathered over waste characteristics, technical performance and markets. With legislative support and development of further processing technologies and markets of the recycled materials the scenarios with biomaterial and plastic separation may operate feasibly in the future.

The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: a case study over the UK

Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.

An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain.

The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

WIND POWER SUITABILITY ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MAINE

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WIND POWER IN MAINE: BALANCING CONSERVATION AND ENERGY PRODUCTION

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