Assessing the effectiveness of non-profit forestry organisations : an ultimate goal approach

Summary

State of Iowa Long-Term Economic Recovery Strategy Prepared for the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2010

The Rebuild Iowa Office (RIO) continues to coordinate the state‘s recovery effort from the storms, tornadoes and floods of 2008. Much has been accomplished since the Office‘s last quarterly report was issued in July 2010. State funding has been disbursed to help Iowans with unmet needs and housing. Local governments and entities are utilizing millions of federal dollars so thousands of disaster-impacted homeowners can be offered a buyout. More infrastructure projects are under construction and new neighborhoods are being built with mitigation efforts in mind. However, as Iowa continues to celebrate many successes along the road to recovery, it must also address the numerous challenges that are encountered along the path. Recovering from the state‘s largest disaster must be looked at as a marathon, not a sprint. Over the past three months, the RIO has especially remained focused on helping small business owners impacted by the 2008 disasters. Many disaster-affected businesses have reopened their doors, however their debt load continues to be overwhelming and many still struggle with the timeliness of the disbursement of funds. This report describes how programs and recent modifications are working to assist recovering businesses. This report contains updates on housing progress while outlining the complexities behind certain programs and the bottlenecks communities are facing due to strict federal guidelines for implementation. This following pages also describe how Iowa is implementing Smart Planning principles, publicizing flood awareness through outreach efforts and preparing a blueprint for the state to follow when future disasters occur. As always, the RIO recognizes and thanks the countless leaders and front-line workers from local, regional, state and federal government, businesses, non-profit organizations and private citizens that have provided input, support and leadership. Their dedication to Iowa‘s disaster recovery has made the plans and projects on the following pages possible.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, A Lesson in For-Profit Colleges, May 2012

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: A Lesson in For-Profit Colleges

CJJP Forecasts Increase in Special Sentence Sex Offenders Caseloads, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, December 2011

The Iowa Sex Offender Research Council recently released a report to the Iowa General Assembly focusing on sex offender registration and the special sentence for sex offenders. Regarding the latter, the Council (staffed by the state’s Division of Criminal & Juvenile Justice Planning) projected a steady increase in community-based corrections’ special sentence caseloads from 619 offenders in 2011 to 2,651 offenders in 2021:

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Invasores: bon profit!

Per fer front a l’expansió d’espècies invasores, i tenint en compte que en molts casos es tracta d’espècies comestibles a llurs països d’origen, ha sorgit la nova iniciativa “Eat the Invaders”: simplement, mengem-nos-les!

Sentence de la Prevôté de l'Hôtel... et grande prévôté de France, qui déclare la saisie d'un carosse et de deux chevaux, faite sur le nommé Graille-loueur... à Paris, bonne et valable, ordonne la confiscation des choses saisies, au profit des Fermiers des voitures de la cour...

[Acte. 1778-09-02. Paris]

Sentence de la prévôté de l'Hôtel du roi, et grande prévôté de France, rendue au profit de Mr de la Roche, garde de la porte de Mgr le comte d'Artois, contre les curé et marguillers de Séve (Sèvres) près Saint-Cloud...

[Acte. 1778-09-30. Paris]

Arrêt notable de la cour de parlement donné au profit des curés, portant règlement pour le paiement des dîmes sur les blés et vins qui se recueillent és vignes et enclos situés dans leur paroisse, avec injonction de vendanger selon l'usage des pays, et défenses de jeter et renverser par terre le dit droit de dîmes. Contre les seigneurs desdites paroisses. (1er juin 1676)

[Acte. 1676-06-01]

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Applying the principles of life cycle assessment and costing in process modeling to examine profit-making capability

Static process simulation has traditionally been used to model complex processes for various purposes. However, the use of static processsimulators for the preparation of holistic examinations aiming at improving profit-making capability requires a lot of work because the production of results requires the assessment of the applicability of detailed data which may be irrelevant to the objective. The relevant data for the total assessment gets buried byirrelevant data. Furthermore, the models do not include an examination of the maintenance or risk management, and economic examination is often an extra property added to them which can be performed with a spreadsheet program. A process model applicable to holistic economic examinations has been developed in this work. The model is based on the life cycle profit philosophy developed by Hagberg and Henriksson in 1996. The construction of the model has utilized life cycle assessment and life cycle costing methodologies with a view to developing, above all, a model which would be applicable to the economic examinations of complete wholes and which would require the need for information focusing on aspects essential to the objectives. Life cycle assessment and costing differ from each other in terms of the modeling principles, but the features of bothmethodologies can be used in the development of economic process modeling. Methods applicable to the modeling of complex processes can be examined from the viewpoint of life cycle methodologies, because they involve the collection and management of large corpuses of information and the production of information for the needs of decision-makers as well. The results of the study shows that on the basis of the principles of life cycle modeling, a process model can be created which may be used to produce holistic efficiency examinations on the profit-making capability of the production line, with fewer resources thanwith traditional methods. The calculations of the model are based to the maximum extent on the information system of the factory, which means that the accuracyof the results can be improved by developing information systems so that they can provide the best information for this kind of examinations.