Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Value creation and capital market valuation in the forest product industry

Tämä työ tähtää löytämään mahdollisia poikkeamia metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina-arvoissa ja tunnistaa tekijöitä jotka ovat vaikuttaneet pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yritysten tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä sekä yrityksen markkina-arvoon. Tämän työn päätavoitteena on kehittää diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuva arvonmääritysmalli jolla mitataan metsäteollisuusyritysten tosiasiallista arvoa yritysten suorituskyvyn ja arvoajureiden perusteella. Lisäksi tavoitteena on löytää selittäviä tekijöitä havaituille eroille yritysten tosiasiallisesten arvojen ja markkinaperusteisten arvojen välisillä. Teoreettisessa osassa esitellään rahoitusteorian pääpiirteet arvonmäärityksen kannalta, aikasempia tutkimuksia sekä metsäteollisuuden toimialakohtaisia tekijöitä. Empiirisessä osassa kehittetään diskontattuihin kassavirtoihin perustuvaa arvonmääritymalli. Otos koostuu 32 suurimmasta Pohjoismaisesta ja Pohjoisamerikkalaisesta metsäteollisuusyrityksestä vuonna 2000. Tutkimuksen aikavälien 1991 -2000. Tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia jonka mukaan kasvuinvestoinnit eivät luo positiivisia odotuksia yrityksen tulevaisuuden kassavirroista. Tarkemmat löydöt ovat, että arvon luominen tutkimusajanjakson aikana ei vaikuttanut yhtä merkittävästi pääomamarkkinoiden odotuksiin yrityksen tulevaisuuden suorituskyvystä kuin mitatut tosiasialliset arvot. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että metsäteollisuusyritysten markkina- arvot olivat keskimäärin riippuvaisempia itse yrityksestä, kuin sen toiminnasta.

In search of information systems value : a case study of the EHR benefits realisation efforts of three Swedish hospitals.

The Swedish public health care organisation could very well be undergoing its most significant change since its specialisation during the late 19th and early 20th century. At the heart of this change is a move from using manual patient journals to electronic health records (EHR). EHR are complex integrated organisational wide information systems (IS) that promise great benefits and value as well as presenting great challenges to the organisation. The Swedish public health care is not the first organisation to implement integrated IS, and by no means alone in their quest for realising the potential benefits and value that it has to offer. As organisations invest in IS they embark on a journey of value-creation and capture. A journey where a costbased approach towards their IS-investments is replaced with a value-centric focus, and where the main challenges lie in the practical day-to-day task of finding ways to intertwine technology, people and business processes. This has however proven to be a problematic task. The problematic situation arises from a shift of perspective regarding how to manage IS in order to gain value. This is a shift from technology delivery to benefits delivery; from an ISimplementation plan to a change management plan. The shift gives rise to challenges related to the inability of IS and the elusiveness of value. As a response to these challenges the field of IS-benefits management has emerged offering a framework and a process in order to better understand and formalise benefits realisation activities. In this thesis the benefits realisation efforts of three Swedish hospitals within the same county council are studied. The thesis focuses on the participants of benefits analysis projects; their perceptions, judgments, negotiations and descriptions of potential benefits. The purpose is to address the process where organisations seek to identify which potential IS-benefits to pursue and realise, this in order to better understand what affects the process, so that realisation actions of potential IS-benefits could be supported. A qualitative case study research design is adopted and provides a framework for sample selection, data collection, and data analysis. It also provides a framework for discussions of validity, reliability and generalizability. Findings displayed a benefits fluctuation, which showed that participants’ perception of what constituted potential benefits and value changed throughout the formal benefits management process. Issues like structure, knowledge, expectation and experience affected perception differently, and this in the end changed the amount and composition of potential benefits and value. Five dimensions of benefits judgment were identified and used by participants when finding accommodations of potential benefits and value to pursue. Identified dimensions affected participants’ perceptions, which in turn affected the amount and composition of potential benefits. During the formal benefits management process participants shifted between judgment dimensions. These movements emerged through debates and interactions between participants. Judgments based on what was perceived as expected due to one’s role and perceived best for the organisation as a whole were the two dominant benefits judgment dimensions. A benefits negotiation was identified. Negotiations were divided into two main categories, rational and irrational, depending on participants’ drive when initiating and participating in negotiations. In each category three different types of negotiations were identified having different characteristics and generating different outcomes. There was also a benefits negotiation process identified that displayed management challenges corresponding to its five phases. A discrepancy was also found between how IS-benefits are spoken of and how actions of IS benefits realisation are understood. This was a discrepancy between an evaluation and a realisation focus towards IS value creation. An evaluation focus described IS-benefits as well-defined and measurable effects and a realisation focus spoke of establishing and managing an on-going place of value creation. The notion of valuescape was introduced in order to describe and support the understanding of IS value creation. Valuescape corresponded to a realisation focus and outlined a value configuration consisting of activities, logic, structure, drivers and role of IS.

Determination of potential value drivers by identifying customer expectations and perceived value

The purpose of this exploratory research is to identify the potential value drivers regarding a new service offering. More specifically, the aim is to build understanding of customer expectations and perceived value of energy efficiency solutions in the building’s sector. The knowledge is then used in defining potential value drivers. The research is conducted from the customer’s perspective in a business-to-business context. The theory part of the master’s thesis focuses on discussing the antecedents of customer expectations and customer value. The theory gives implications how to determine value drivers and develop value propositions as well as conduct value assessment. The empirical part is based on the qualitative research method. The research was conducted as a single-case study, and the primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews with potential customers. The results of the research revealed that the customer expectations are connected to being able to define value drivers. In addition, the research revealed generic themes relating to the offering and customer-supplier relationship, which help in the process of identifying potential value drivers. The results were discussed in terms of product-, service-, price- and relationship-related value drivers for the new service. Based on the data analysis the dominant value drivers are elaborated in terms of identified customer benefits and customer sacrifices (costs). Finally, some implications of value proposition and value assessment to support the value delivery were given.

Adapted customer relationship management implementation framework:facilitating value creation in nursing homes

This paper proposes a framework to support Customer Relationship Management (CRM) implementation in nursing homes. The work extends research by Cheng et al. (2005) who conducted in-depth questionnaires to identify critical features (termed value-characteristics), which are areas identified as adding the most value if implemented. Although Cheng et al. did proposed an implementation framework, summary of, and inconsistent inclusion of value-characteristics, limits the practical use of this contribution during implementation. In this paper we adapt the original framework to correct perceived deficiencies. We link the value characteristics to operational, analytical, strategic and/or collaborative CRM solution types, to allow consideration in context of practical implementation solutions. The outcome of this paper shows that, practically, a 'one solution meets all characteristic' approach to CRM implementation within nursing homes is inappropriate. Our framework, however, supports implementers in identifying how value can be gained when implementing a specific CRM solution within nursing homes; which subsequently support project management and expectation management.

An asymptotic test for the Conditional Value-at-Risk

Conditional Value-at-Risk (equivalent to the Expected Shortfall, Tail Value-at-Risk and Tail Conditional Expectation in the case of continuous probability distributions) is an increasingly popular risk measure in the fields of actuarial science, banking and finance, and arguably a more suitable alternative to the currently widespread Value-at-Risk. In my paper, I present a brief literature survey, and propose a statistical test of the location of the CVaR, which may be applied by practising actuaries to test whether CVaR-based capital levels are in line with observed data. Finally, I conclude with numerical experiments and some questions for future research.

Expectation Modulates Episodic Memory Formation via Dopaminergic Circuitry

Episodic memory formation is shaped by expectation. Events that generate expectations have the capacity to influence memory. Additionally, whether subsequent events meet or violate expectations has consequences for memory. However, clarification is still required to illuminate the circumstances and direction of memory modulation. In the brain, the mechanisms by which expectation modulates memory formation also require consideration. The dopamine system has been implicated in signaling events associated with different states of expectancy; it has also been shown to modulate episodic memory formation in the hippocampus. Thus, the studies included in this dissertation utilized both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral testing to examine when and how the dopaminergic system supports the modulation of memory by expectation. The work aimed to characterize the activation of dopaminergic circuitry in response to cues that generate expectancy, during periods of anticipation, and in response to outcomes that resolve expectancy. The studies also examined how each of these event types influenced episodic memory formation. The present findings demonstrated that novelty and expectancy violation both drive dopaminergic circuitry capable of contributing to memory formation. Consistent with elevated dopaminergic midbrain and hippocampus activation for each, expected versus expectancy violating novelty did not differentially affect memory success. We also showed that high curiosity expectancy states drive memory formation. This was supported by activation in dopaminergic circuitry that was greater for subsequently remembered information only in the high curiosity state. Finally, we showed that cues that generate high expected reward value versus high reward uncertainty differentially modulate memory formation during reward anticipation. This behavioral result was consistent with distinct temporal profiles of dopaminergic action having differential downstream effects on episodic memory formation. Integrating the present studies with previous research suggests that dopaminergic circuitry signals events that are unpredicted, whether cuing or resolving expectations. It also suggests that contextual differences change the contribution of the dopaminergic system during anticipation, depending on the nature of the expectation. And finally, this work is consistent with a model in which dopamine elevation in response to expectancy events positively modulates episodic memory formation.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Prognostic Value Of Dna And Mrna E6/e7 Of Human Papillomavirus In The Evolution Of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2.

This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.

Predictive Value Of Phase I Trials For Safety In Later Trials And Final Approved Dose: Analysis Of 61 Approved Cancer Drugs.

Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

Value Of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy In Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

The objectives of the study were to evaluate the performance of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in detecting occult metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and to correlate their presence to tumor and patient characteristics. Twenty-three clinically node-negative PTC patients (21 females, mean age 48.4 years) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were submitted to sentinel lymph node (SLN) lymphoscintigraphy prior to total thyroidectomy. Ultrasound-guided peritumoral injections of (99m)Tc-phytate (7.4 MBq) were performed. Cervical single-photon emission computed tomography and computed tomography (SPECT/CT) images were acquired 15 min after radiotracer injection and 2 h prior to surgery. Intra-operatively, SLNs were located with a gamma probe and removed along with non-SLNs located in the same neck compartment. Papillary thyroid carcinoma, SLNs and non-SLNs were submitted to histopathology analysis. Sentinel lymph nodes were located in levels: II in 34.7 % of patients; III in 26 %; IV in 30.4 %; V in 4.3 %; VI in 82.6 % and VII in 4.3 %. Metastases in the SLN were noted in seven patients (30.4 %), in non-SLN in three patients (13.1 %), and in the lateral compartments in 20 % of patients. There were significant associations between lymph node (LN) metastases and the presence of angio-lymphatic invasion (p = 0.04), extra-thyroid extension (p = 0.03) and tumor size (p = 0.003). No correlations were noted among LN metastases and patient age, gender, stimulated thyroglobulin levels, positive surgical margins, aggressive histology and multifocal lesions. Sentinel lymph node biopsy can detect occult metastases in PTC. The risk of a metastatic SLN was associated with extra-thyroid extension, larger tumors and angio-lymphatic invasion. This may help guide future neck dissection, patient surveillance and radioiodine therapy doses.

The Value Of Audiovisual Archives.

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Taxonomic value of foliar characters in Dahlstedtia Malme: Leguminosae, Papilionoideae, Millettieae

Dahlstedtia Malme (Leguminosae) is a neotropical genus, native to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and comprises two species, D. pinnata (Benth.) Malme and D. pentaphylla (Taub.) Burk., although it has been considered a monotypic genus by some authors. Leaf anatomy was compared to verify the presence of anatomical characters to help delimit species. Foliar primordium, leaflet, petiolule, petiole and pulvinus were collected from cultivated plants (Campinas, SP, Brazil) and from natural populations (Picinguaba, Ubatuba and Caraguatatuba, SP, Brazil - D. pinnata; Antonina, PR, Brazil - D. pentaphylla). Studies on leaflet surface assessment (Scanning Electron Microscopy), as well as histology and venation analyses were carried out of dehydrated, fresh and fixed material from two species. Leaflet material was macerated for stomatal counts. Histological sections, obtained by free-hand cut or microtome, were stained with Toluidine Blue, Safranin/Alcian Blue, Ferric Chloride, Acid Phloroglucin. Secretory cavities are present in the lamina, petiolule, petiole, pulvinus and leaf primordium in D. pentaphylla, but not in D. pinnata, and can be considered an important character for species diagnosis. Other leaf characters were uninformative in delimiting Dahlstedtia species. There is cambial activity in the petiolule, petiole and pulvinus. This study, associated with other available data, supports the recognition of two species in Dahlstedtia.

Adding value to the meat of spent laying hens manufacturing sausages with a healthy appeal

The aim of this study was to evaluate the viability of the use of spent laying hens' meat in the manufacturing of mortadella-type sausages with healthy appeal by using vegetable oil instead of animal fat. 120 Hy-line® layer hens were distributed in a completely randomized design into two treatments of six replicates with ten birds each. The treatments were birds from light Hy-line® W36 and semi-heavy Hy-line® Brown lines. Cold carcass, wing, breast and leg fillets yields were determined. Dry matter, protein, and lipid contents were determined in breast and leg fillets. The breast and legg fillets of three replicates per treatment were used to manufacture mortadella. After processing, sausages were evaluated for proximal composition, objective color, microbiological parameters, fatty acid profile and sensory acceptance. The meat of light and semi-heavy spent hens presented good yield and composition, allowing it to be used as raw material for the manufacture of processed products. Mortadellas were safe from microbiological point of view, and those made with semi-heavy hens fillets were redder and better accepted by consumers. Values for all sensory attributes were evaluated over score 5 (neither liked nor disliked). Both products presented high polyunsaturated fatty acid contents and good polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio. The excellent potential for the use of meat from spent layer hens of both varieties in the manufacturing of healthier mortadella-type sausage was demonstrated.

Combining Legendre's Polynomials and Genetic Algorithm in the Solution of Nonlinear Initial-Value Problems

This work develops a method for solving ordinary differential equations, that is, initial-value problems, with solutions approximated by using Legendre's polynomials. An iterative procedure for the adjustment of the polynomial coefficients is developed, based on the genetic algorithm. This procedure is applied to several examples providing comparisons between its results and the best polynomial fitting when numerical solutions by the traditional Runge-Kutta or Adams methods are available. The resulting algorithm provides reliable solutions even if the numerical solutions are not available, that is, when the mass matrix is singular or the equation produces unstable running processes.