Nonlinear dynamics in discretionary accruals: An analysis of bank loan-loss provisions

Several studies have analyzed discretionary accruals to address earnings-smoothing behaviors in the banking industry. We argue that the characteristic link between accruals and earnings may be nonlinear, since both the incentives to manipulate income and the practical way to do so depend partially on the relative size of earnings. Given a sample of 15,268 US banks over the period 1996–2011, the main results in this paper suggest that, depending on the size of earnings, bank managers tend to engage in earnings-decreasing strategies when earnings are negative (“big-bath”), use earnings-increasing strategies when earnings are positive, and use provisions as a smoothing device when earnings are positive and substantial (“cookie-jar” accounting). This evidence, which cannot be explained by the earnings-smoothing hypothesis, is consistent with the compensation theory. Neglecting nonlinear patterns in the econometric modeling of these accruals may lead to misleading conclusions regarding the characteristic strategies used in earnings management.

Does All Fit One Size? An evaluation of the ECB policy response to changing economic conditions in the Euro area member states. ACES Cases No. 2008.1

This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the European Central Bank has responded to evolving economic conditions in its member states as opposed to the euro area as a whole. Based on a forward-looking Taylor rule-type policy reaction function, we conduct counterfactual exercises that compare the monetary policy behavior of the ECB with two alternative hypothetical scenarios: (1) were the euro member states to make individual policy decisions, and (2) were the ECB to respond to the economic conditions of individual members. The results reflect the extent of heterogeneity among the national economies in the monetary union and indicate that the ECB's monetary policy rates have been particularly close to the "counterfactual" interest rates of its largest euro members, as well as of countries with similar economic conditions, which includes Germany, Austria, Belgium and France.

European Central Bank quantitative easing: the detailed manual. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2015/02, March 2015

• The European quantitative easing programme, the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), started on 9 March 2015 and will last at least until September 2016. Purchases will be composed of sovereign bonds and securities from European institutions and national agencies. • The European Central Bank Governing Council imposed limits to ensure that the Eurosystem will not breach the prohibition on monetary financing. However, these limits will constrain the size and duration of the programme, especially if it is sustained after September 2016. The possibility for national central banks to also buy national agency securities could alleviate this, but the small number of eligible agencies could limit their role as a back-up purchase. • The Eurosystem should find other eligible agencies, especially in countries in which public debt is small, or waive the limits for countries respecting the investment grade eligibility criteria. The same issue arises with European institutions: their number and outstanding debt securities are limited. The waiver of the limits proposed for sovereigns should be applied to institutions with high ratings. • The PSPP profits that will ultimately be repatriated to national treasuries will be small. This was to be expected, given current very low yields. Profits will also come from the major increase in reserves resulting from the implementation of QE, combined with the negative deposit rates on excess reserves at the ECB.

Micro-based evidence of EU competitiveness: The CompNet Database. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 253, March 2014

Drawing from confidential firm-level balance sheets in 11 European countries, the paper presents a novel sectoral database of comparable productivity indicators built by members of the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) using a newly developed research infrastructure. Beyond aggregate information available from industry statistics of Eurostat or EU KLEMS, the paper provides information on the distribution of firms across several dimensions related to competitiveness, e.g. productivity and size. The database comprises so far 11 countries, with information for 58 sectors over the period 1995-2011. The paper documents the development of the new research infrastructure, the construction of the database, and shows some preliminary results. Among them, it shows that there is large heterogeneity in terms of firm productivity or size within narrowly defined industries in all countries. Productivity, and above all, size distribution are very skewed across countries, with a thick left-tail of low productive firms. Moreover, firms at both ends of the distribution show very different dynamics in terms of productivity and unit labour costs. Within-sector heterogeneity and productivity dispersion are positively correlated to aggregate productivity given the possibility of reallocating resources from less to more productive firms. To this extent, we show how allocative efficiency varies across countries, and more interestingly, over different periods of time. Finally, we apply the new database to illustrate the importance of productivity dispersion to explain aggregate trade results.

Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 278, March 2015

This paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in European countries. Using a set of common simulations, we consider transitory and permanent shocks to government expenditures and different taxes. We investigate how the baseline multipliers change when monetary policy is transitorily constrained by the zero nominal interest rate bound, certain crisis-related structural features of the economy such as the share of liquidity-constrained households change, and the endogenous fiscal rule that ensures fiscal sustainability in the long run is specified in terms of labour income taxes instead of lump-sum taxes.

Firm size, source of finance, and growth:evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level data set from China spanning the period 1998–2005, this study investigates the relationship between firm size, financing sources, and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for the endogeneity of financing sources, we find that firm size plays an important role in the way financial structure affects the growth process. Domestic bank loans are more effective for bigger firms, while self-raised finance is more beneficial to smaller firms’ growth. We also uncover evidence that ownership mediates the relationship between firm size, finance, and growth.

Source of finance, growth and firm size:evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level dataset spanning the period 1998-2005, this paper provides a thorough investigation of the relationship between firm size, total factor productivity growth and financial structure in China, controlling for the endogeneity of the latter. Generally, it finds financing source matters for firms of different size, and the extent to which financing source matters for firm growth is greater for small firms than big firms. Self-raised finance appears to be most effective in promoting small firms to grow, and bank loan seems to be more supportive to big firms. The relationship between size, finance and growth also depends on ownership. In addition, there exist strong complementarities between formal and informal finance, as well as between indigenous and foreign finance.

Loan loss provisions, bank valuations and discretion : a comparative study between conventional and Islamic banks

This study investigates the use of reported loan loss provisions (LLP) by investors in their valuations of banks within the Middle East and North Africa region between the years 2006 and 2011. We decompose LLP into discretionary and non-discretionary components to test for differential valuations in the two banking sectors. We use alternative criteria to define the components of LLP in banks: loan quality/size and earnings management/ manipulation incentives. We employ a price-level valuation model estimated using two-stage analyses. We find that LLP has positive value relevance to investors in both banking sectors. Investors in Islamic banks price the discretionary component relatively lower than their conventional counterparts. We attribute this result to differences in product and governance structures as well as to the religious perception of Islamic banking. In both banking sectors, investors construe an increase in the non-discretionary component as irrelevant valuation information. Our results are relevant to bank regulators in showing the signalling effect of LLP to bank value and stability.

Loan loss provisions, bank valuations and discretion:a comparative study between conventional and Islamic banks

This study investigates the use of reported loan loss provisions (LLP) by investors in their valuations of banks within the Middle East and North Africa region between the years 2006 and 2011. We decompose LLP into discretionary and non-discretionary components to test for differential valuations in the two banking sectors. We use alternative criteria to define the components of LLP in banks: loan quality/size and earnings management/manipulation incentives. We employ a price-level valuation model estimated using two-stage analyses. We find that LLP has positive value relevance to investors in both banking sectors. Investors in Islamic banks price the discretionary component relatively lower than their conventional counterparts. We attribute this result to differences in product and governance structures as well as to the religious perception of Islamic banking. In both banking sectors, investors construe an increase in the non-discretionary component as irrelevant valuation information. Our results are relevant to bank regulators in showing the signalling effect of LLP to bank value and stability. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

The long term preservation of an 18th century gene bank heritage

The allée is one of the oldest instruments and forms of landscape architecture, which has often been used from the Antiquity for the expression of visual and functional relationships, for the delimitation of space, or for the pictorial creation of movement. The several hundred years old allées of the late baroque age, which still live among us as the witnesses of bygone times, represent a special value throughout Europe. The longevity and the respectable size as such bestow a certain value upon the trees. However, the allées also stand for a garden art, landscape, culture historical and natural value, which in a summarized way are called cultural heritage. Furthermore, the gene pool of the proven longevous, high tolerance tree specimens is a natural and genetic heritage of scientific signification. The age of the trees and allées is finite. Even with a careful and professional care, the renewal is inevitable, which, beyond technical problems of landscape architecture might raise many scientific, nature conservation, yes, esthetical and ethical questions. This is why there is no universal methodology, but there are aspects and examination procedures of general validity with the help of which a renewal can be prepared. The renewal concept of the lime tree allée in Nagycenk aims at the protection and the transmission of the value-ensemble embodied in the allée. One part of the value-ensemble is the spiritual, cultural heritage, the extraordinary value of the landscape-scaled, landscape architectural creation planted and taken care of by the Széchenyis. On the other hand the two and a half centuries old trees represent an inestimable botanical and genetic wealth. Its transmission and preservation is a scientifically important program coming up to the Széchenyi heritage. After the registration of the originally planted old trees, the complete nursery material of the “Széchenyi limes” necessary for the replanting can be produced by vegetative propagation. The gradual replacement of the stand with its own propagation material, by the carefully raised nursery trees of the same age can be a model for the gene-authentic renewal method – a novelty even at an international level.

Carbonate preservation of sediment cores from the Great Bahama Bank

The oceanic carbon cycle mainly comprises the production and dissolution/ preservation of carbonate particles in the water column or within the sediment. Carbon dioxide is one of the major controlling factors for the production and dissolution of carbonate. There is a steady exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in order to achieve an equilibrium of CO2; an anthropogenic rise of CO2 in the atmosphere would therefore also increase the amount of CO2 in the ocean. The increased amount of CO2 in the ocean, due to increasing CO2-emissions into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, has been interpreted as "ocean acidification" (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003). Its alarming effects, such as dissolution and reduced CaCO3 formation, on reefs and other carbonate shell producing organisms form the topic of current discussions (Kolbert, 2006). Decreasing temperatures and increasing pressure and CO2 enhance the dissolution of carbonate particles at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea. Moreover, dissolution processes are dependent of the saturation state of the surrounding water with respect to calcite or aragonite. Significantly increased dissolution has been observed below the aragonite or calcite chemical lysocline; below the aragonite compensation depth (ACD), or calcite compensation depth (CCD), all aragonite or calcite particles, respectively, are dissolved. Aragonite, which is more prone to dissolution than calcite, features a shallower lysocline and compensation depth than calcite. In the 1980's it was suggested that significant dissolution also occurs in the water column or at the sediment-water interface above the lysocline. Unknown quantities of carbonate produced at the sea surface, would be dissolved due to this process. This would affect the calculation of the carbonate production and the entire carbonate budget of the world's ocean. Following this assumption, a number of studies have been carried out to monitor supralysoclinal dissolution at various locations: at Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic (Martin and Sayles, 1996), in the Arabian Sea (Milliman et al., 1999), in the equatorial Indian Ocean (Peterson and Prell, 1985; Schulte and Bard, 2003), and in the equatorial Pacific (Kimoto et al., 2003). Despite the evidence for supralysoclinal dissolution in some areas of the world's ocean, the question still exists whether dissolution occurs above the lysocline in the entire ocean. The first part of this thesis seeks answers to this question, based on the global budget model of Milliman et al. (1999). As study area the Bahamas and Florida Straits are most suitable because of the high production of carbonate, and because there the depth of the lysocline is the deepest worldwide. To monitor the occurrence of supralysoclinal dissolution, the preservation of aragonitic pteropod shells was determined, using the Limacina inflata Dissolution Index (LDX; Gerhardt and Henrich, 2001). Analyses of the grain-size distribution, the mineralogy, and the foraminifera assemblage revealed further aspects concerning the preservation state of the sediment. All samples located at the Bahamian platform are well preserved. In contrast, the samples from the Florida Straits show dissolution in 800 to 1000 m and below 1500 m water depth. Degradation of organic material and the subsequent release of CO2 probably causes supralysoclinal dissolution. A northward extension of the corrosive Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows through the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico and might enhance dissolution processes at around 1000 m water depth. The second part of this study deals with the preservation of Pliocene to Holocene carbonate sediments from both the windward and leeward basins adjacent to Great Bahama Bank (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 632, 633, and 1006). Detailed census counts of the sand fraction (250-500 µm) show the general composition of the coarse grained sediment. Further methods used to examine the preservation state of carbonates include the amount of organic carbon and various dissolution indices, such as the LDX and the Fragmentation Index. Carbonate concretions (nodules) have been observed in the sand fraction. They are similar to the concretions or aggregates previously mentioned by Mullins et al. (1980a) and Droxler et al. (1988a), respectively. Nonetheless, a detailed study of such grains has not been made to date, although they form an important part of periplatform sediments. Stable isotopemeasurements of the nodules' matrix confirm previous suggestions that the nodules have formed in situ as a result of early diagenetic processes (Mullins et al., 1980a). The two cores, which are located in Exuma Sound (Sites 632 and 633), at the eastern margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB), show an increasing amount of nodules with increasing core depth. In Pliocene sediments, the amount of nodules might rise up to 100%. In contrast, nodules only occur within glacial stages in the deeper part of the studied core interval (between 30 and 70 mbsf) at Site 1006 on the western margin of GBB. Above this level the sediment is constantly being flushed by bottom water, that might also contain corrosive AAIW, which would hinder cementation. Fine carbonate particles (<63 µm) form the matrix of the nodules and do therefore not contribute to the fine fraction. At the same time, the amount of the coarse fraction (>63 µm) increases due to the nodule formation. The formation of nodules might therefore significantly alter the grain-size distribution of the sediment. A direct comparison of the amount of nodules with the grain-size distribution shows that core intervals with high amounts of nodules are indeed coarser than the intervals with low amounts of nodules. On the other hand, an initially coarser sediment might facilitate the formation of nodules, as a high porosity and permeability enhances early diagenetic processes (Westphal et al., 1999). This suggestion was also confirmed: the glacial intervals at Site 1006 are interpreted to have already been rather coarse prior to the formation of nodules. This assumption is based on the grain-size distribution in the upper part of the core, which is not yet affected by diagenesis, but also shows coarser sediment during the glacial stages. As expected, the coarser, glacial deposits in the lower part of the core show the highest amounts of nodules. The same effect was observed at Site 632, where turbidites cause distinct coarse layers and reveal higher amounts of nodules than non-turbiditic sequences. Site 633 shows a different pattern: both the amount of nodules and the coarseness of the sediment steadily increase with increasing core depth. Based on these sedimentological findings, the following model has been developed: a grain-size pattern characterised by prominent coarse peaks (as observed at Sites 632 and 1006) is barely altered. The greatest coarsening effect due to the nodule formation will occur in those layers, which have initially been coarser than the adjacent sediment intervals. In this case, the overall trend of the grain-size pattern before and after formation of the nodules is similar to each other. Although the sediment is altered due to diagenetic processes, grain size could be used as a proxy for e.g. changes in the bottom-water current. The other case described in the model is based on a consistent initial grain-size distribution, as observed at Site 633. In this case, the nodule reflects the increasing diagenetic alteration with increasing core depth rather than the initial grain-size pattern. In the latter scenario, the overall grain-size trend is significantly changed which makes grain size unreliable as a proxy for any palaeoenvironmental changes. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of general sedimentation processes in the periplatform realm: the preservation state of surface samples shows the influence of supralysoclinal dissolution due to the degradation of organic matter and due to the presence of corrosive water masses; the composition of the sand fraction shows the alteration of the carbonate sediment due to early diagenetic processes. However, open questions are how and when the alteration processes occur and how geochemical parameters, such as the rise in alkalinity or the amount of strontium, are linked to them. These geochemical parameters might reveal more information about the depth in the sediment column, where dissolution and cementation processes occur.

Grain-size, lithic grains, foraminifera-derived and dinocyst-derived data of sediment core MD99-2281

The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic events with extrema known as Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These millennial events have been the subject of many paleoreconstructions and model experiments in the past decades, but yet the hydrological processes involved remain elusive. In the present work, high-resolution analyses were conducted on the 12-42 ka BP section of core MD99-2281 retrieved southwest of the Faeroe Islands, and combined with analyses conducted in two previous studies (Zumaque et al., 2012; Caulle et al., 2013). Such a multiproxy approach, coupling micropaleontological, geochemical and sedimentological analyses, allows us to track surface, subsurface, and deep hydrological processes occurring during these rapid climatic changes. Records indicate that the coldest episodes of the studied period (Greenland stadials and Heinrich stadials) were characterized by a strong stratification of surface waters. This surface stratification seems to have played a key role in the dynamics of subsurface and deep-water masses. Indeed, periods of high surface stratification are marked by a coupling of subsurface and deep circulations which sharply weaken at the beginning of stadials, while surface conditions progressively deteriorate throughout these cold episodes; conversely, periods of decreasing surface stratification (Greenland interstadials) are characterized by a coupling of surface and deep hydrological processes, with progressively milder surface conditions and gradual intensification of the deep circulation, while the vigor of the subsurface northward Atlantic flow remains constantly high. Our results also reveal different and atypical hydrological signatures during Heinrich stadials (HSs): while HS1 and HS4 exhibit a "usual" scheme with reduced overturning circulation, a relatively active North Atlantic circulation seems to have prevailed during HS2, and HS3 seems to have experienced a re-intensification of this circulation during the middle of the event. Our findings thus bring valuable information to better understand hydrological processes occurring in a key area during the abrupt climatic shifts of the last glacial period.

The Appendicularia and Chaetognatha from the Great Meteor Bank, Northeast Atlantic

At a longtime station near the "Grosse Meteor Bank" in the North Atlantic 41 subsequent hauls were made in April 1967 with the Helgoland larva net with changing bucket device. In addition 9 hauls were made during July 1967. The catches from the depth ranges of 900-700 m, 700-500 m, 500-300 m, 300-200 m, 200-100 m, and 100-0 m were collected in separate buckets during each catch series. Contamination, though possible on principle, does not seem to be of much consequence in appendicularia. After some comments on certain species caught it is shown that at this station in the open ocean the density of appendicularia not only varies with the season, but that clouds of plankton may pass by it within a few hours, in which the density may vary at a ratio of ten or more to one. In the composition of species as many as four species may in turn be the most abundant. For one species the composition as to size and stage of maturity may change in the same way. Regarding the depth distribution there are no species restricted to deeper layers. Below 100 m the number falls to about 1 % of the uppermost layer. Oikopkura longicauda, O. cophocerca, O.parva and Althoffia tumida as well as Fritillaria species are found between 900 and 100 m in comparatively higher numbers than Stegosoma magnum, Oikopleura albicans and O. intermedia. The Chaetognaths were collected in the depth of 900-0 m in vertical hauls with the Helgoland larva net with changing bucket device; buckets had been changed in the depth of 700, 500, 300, 200,1 00 m. In the course of the investigation it appeared that for Chaetognaths the sampling method with changing bucket device is insufficient. Many specimens remained in the net and entered the bucket at a higher level than that in which they had lived, mostly during flushing the net (sample 100-0 m); this means considerable contamination. In spite of this difficulty deep layers of higher abundance could be traced for Sagitta lyra and some other species. For some species large local variations in the number of specimens within a short time were found. Moreover notes have been made of foodorganisms, parasits and anatornic metamorphoses during maturing.