Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

Mulheres (in)visíveis: que "género" de comentadores no horário nobre da televisão?

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)

What is the european social model? an aproximation based on Spanish case

The public perception of the EU in Spain varies greatly. The most positive aspects of Spanish membership are associated with the consolidation of democracy, economic growth, the introduction of the euro, the growth in employment and structural and cohesion funds, the increase in the female participation rate, and the equal opportunities policies. The analysts are in favour of common objectives in the employment policy and multi-level government. The less positive aspects of the EU are the risks of losing social protection and loss of employment in some sectors due to mergers of multinationals and delocalization of companies towards Eastern Europe. The continuous demands for reform of the welfare state, the toughening of the conditions of access to social benefit and the reform of the labour market are also seen as problematic issues. Risks of competitive cuts and social dumping.

Welfare comparisons: sequential procedures for heterogenous populations

Some analysts use sequential dominance criteria, and others use equivalence scales in combination with non-sequential dominance tests, to make welfare comparisons of oint distributions of income and needs. In this paper we present a new sequential procedure hich copes with situations in which sequential dominance fails. We also demonstrate that there commendations deriving from the sequential approach are valid for distributions of equivalent income whatever equivalence scale the analyst might adopt. Thus the paper marries together the sequential and equivalizing approaches, seen as alternatives in much previous literature. All results are specified in forms which allow for demographic differences in the populations being compared.

Different trajectories of exosomatic energy metabolism for Brazil, Chile and Venezuela: using the MSIASM approach

Economic development goes hand in hand with an increase in the consumption of natural resources. Some analysts use material flows to describe such relationship [Eurostat 2001, Weisz et al., 2006], or exergy [Ayres et al., 2003]. Instead this paper will use a characterisation of the exosomatic energy metabolism based on expected benchmark values to describe possible constraints to economic development posed by available human time and energy. The aim of the paper is to identify types of exosomatic energy metabolism of different societies to interpret its consequences for economic development. This is done with the application of the accounting methodology called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM) to the particular case of energy metabolism for the analysis of the economies of Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

Analysing variations in health expectancy - seminar presentations

A recent report by the Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (CARDI) entitled Illustrating Ageing in Ireland, North and South found that since the 1920s the number of years males can expect to live rose by about 20 years while the number of years females can expect to live rose by about 24-25 years.  It is not clear, however, if these years of life gained are lived in good health.While there is considerable policy focus on reducing inequalities in life expectancy, much less is known about the variation in health expectancy that exists across the island of Ireland. The debate hinges on our understanding of what is driving the changes in life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and the gap between the two.IPH in association with CARDI, hosted a Health Analysts' Special Interest Group (HASIG) seminar discussing the policy implications of this debate. The seminar introduced the range of health expectancy measures and compared them to life expectancy.  Initial findings from the all-island study of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were also presented.

Structural Analysis of Networks

Network analysis naturally relies on graph theory and, more particularly, on the use of node and edge metrics to identify the salient properties in graphs. When building visual maps of networks, these metrics are turned into useful visual cues or are used interactively to filter out parts of a graph while querying it, for instance. Over the years, analysts from different application domains have designed metrics to serve specific needs. Network science is an inherently cross-disciplinary field, which leads to the publication of metrics with similar goals; different names and descriptions of their analytics often mask the similarity between two metrics that originated in different fields. Here, we study a set of graph metrics and compare their relative values and behaviors in an effort to survey their potential contributions to the spatial analysis of networks.

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

El arte que traduce. 1995-2010: la traducción como mediación cultural en los procesos de transmisión y recepción de las obras de arte

El trabajo de investigación realizado durante los tres últimos años de beca se centra en las teorías críticas y en las prácticas artísticas contemporáneas que utilizan la traducción como mediación cultural en los procesos de transmisión y recepción de las obras de arte contemporáneo. En el contexto artistico contemporáneo la traducción es entendida como intercambio, adaptación, traslado o transacción. Tomando como referentes conceptuales las teorías nacidas en el marco interdisciplinar de los Estudios Visuales y de los Estudios de Traducción, dicha investigación se ha centrado en el análisis del fenómeno de la traducción en la producción artística. A partir de este análisis se han investigado las conexiones entre estas disciplinas humanísticas y la práctica artística, así como la problemática que éstas conllevan en la formulación de nuevos criterios y nuevas categorías de la Historia del Arte actual. En la práctica artística cuestiones relativas a la traducción se han podido integrar al arte visual: por un lado como práctica indispensable para la comprensión e interpretación de la obra de arte entre diferentes contextos geográficos o culturales, y por otro, como elemento “formal” indispensable para la realización de los artefactos artísticos que, a su vez, quieren interpretar diferentes realidades sociales, antropológicas o políticas. Sobretodo a partir de la serie On Translation del artista catalán Antoni Muntadas, así como de otros artistas de varios contextos geográficos y culturales, se han analizado las dinámicas prácticas y teóricas de la traducción que acompañan el proceso de la realización de los artefactos artísticos. Muchas de estas obras de arte contemporáneo asimilando los significantes propios del contexto cultural, social, político, económico, y utilizando elementos formales variados (sobretodo tecnológicos) necesitan de un análisis interdisciplinar.

Spain in Europe 2004-2008

In March of 2004, the Observatory of European Foreign Policy published a special monograph about Spain in Europe (1996-2004) in digital format. The objective of the monograph was to analyse Spain’s foreign policy agenda and strategy during the period of José María Aznar’s presidency. As the title suggests, one of the initial suppositions of the analysis is the Europeanization of Spanish foreign activities. Is that how it was? Did Aznar’s Spain see the world and relate to it through Brussels? The publication was well received, considering the number of visits received and above all the institutions which asked to link the publication to their web pages. Among these, the EUobserver published the introduction to the piece in English titled Aznar: thinking locally, acting in Europe (described by the EUobserver as a paper of utmost importance). The fact that the elections were held three days after the tragic events of the 11th of March dramatically increased interest in Spain and the implications for Europe. This publication is the second of its type, in this case analysing the period of the Zapatero government (2004-2008). Once again the starting premise (the Europeanization of the agenda and the methods employed) has been considered by the analysts. And once again the articles collected in this publication serve to “triangulate” the analysis. Spain and Europe are two vertices (more or less distant, in essence and in form) which the authors handle in their analysis of the case (third vertex).

Symptomatic in-hospital deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism following hip and knee arthroplasty among patients receiving recommended prophylaxis: a systematic review.

CONTEXT: Symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total or partial knee arthroplasty (TPKA) and after total or partial hip arthroplasty (TPHA) are proposed patient safety indicators, but its incidence prior to discharge is not defined. OBJECTIVE: To establish a literature-based estimate of symptomatic VTE event rates prior to hospital discharge in patients undergoing TPHA or TPKA. DATA SOURCES: Search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (1996 to 2011), supplemented by relevant articles. STUDY SELECTION: Reports of incidence of symptomatic postoperative pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis (DVT) before hospital discharge in patients who received VTE prophylaxis with either a low-molecular-weight heparin or a subcutaneous factor Xa inhibitor or oral direct inhibitor of factors Xa or IIa. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies that reported rates of postoperative symptomatic VTE in patients who received recommended VTE prophylaxis after undergoing TPHA or TPKA. Data were independently extracted by 2 analysts, and pooled incidence rates of VTE, DVT, and pulmonary embolism were estimated using random-effects models. RESULTS: The analysis included 44,844 cases provided by 47 studies. The pooled rates of symptomatic postoperative VTE before hospital discharge were 1.09% (95% CI, 0.85%-1.33%) for patients undergoing TPKA and 0.53% (95% CI, 0.35%-0.70%) for those undergoing TPHA. The pooled rates of symptomatic DVT were 0.63% (95% CI, 0.47%-0.78%) for knee arthroplasty and 0.26% (95% CI, 0.14%-0.37%) for hip arthroplasty. The pooled rates for pulmonary embolism were 0.27% (95% CI, 0.16%-0.38%) for knee arthroplasty and 0.14% (95% CI, 0.07%-0.21%) for hip arthroplasty. There was significant heterogeneity for the pooled incidence rates of symptomatic postoperative VTE in TPKA studies but less heterogeneity for DVT and pulmonary embolism in TPKA studies and for VTE, DVT, and pulmonary embolism in TPHA studies. CONCLUSION: Using current VTE prophylaxis, approximately 1 in 100 patients undergoing TPKA and approximately 1 in 200 patients undergoing TPHA develops symptomatic VTE prior to hospital discharge.

Compositional Data in Biomedical Research

Modern methods of compositional data analysis are not well known in biomedical research.Moreover, there appear to be few mathematical and statistical researchersworking on compositional biomedical problems. Like the earth and environmental sciences,biomedicine has many problems in which the relevant scienti c information isencoded in the relative abundance of key species or categories. I introduce three problemsin cancer research in which analysis of compositions plays an important role. Theproblems involve 1) the classi cation of serum proteomic pro les for early detection oflung cancer, 2) inference of the relative amounts of di erent tissue types in a diagnostictumor biopsy, and 3) the subcellular localization of the BRCA1 protein, and it'srole in breast cancer patient prognosis. For each of these problems I outline a partialsolution. However, none of these problems is \solved". I attempt to identify areas inwhich additional statistical development is needed with the hope of encouraging morecompositional data analysts to become involved in biomedical research

Proving the performance of a new revenue management system

Revenue management (RM) is a complicated business process that can best be described ascontrol of sales (using prices, restrictions, or capacity), usually using software as a tool to aiddecisions. RM software can play a mere informative role, supplying analysts with formatted andsummarized data who use it to make control decisions (setting a price or allocating capacity fora price point), or, play a deeper role, automating the decisions process completely, at the otherextreme. The RM models and algorithms in the academic literature by and large concentrateon the latter, completely automated, level of functionality.A firm considering using a new RM model or RM system needs to evaluate its performance.Academic papers justify the performance of their models using simulations, where customerbooking requests are simulated according to some process and model, and the revenue perfor-mance of the algorithm compared to an alternate set of algorithms. Such simulations, whilean accepted part of the academic literature, and indeed providing research insight, often lackcredibility with management. Even methodologically, they are usually awed, as the simula-tions only test \within-model" performance, and say nothing as to the appropriateness of themodel in the first place. Even simulations that test against alternate models or competition arelimited by their inherent necessity on fixing some model as the universe for their testing. Theseproblems are exacerbated with RM models that attempt to model customer purchase behav-ior or competition, as the right models for competitive actions or customer purchases remainsomewhat of a mystery, or at least with no consensus on their validity.How then to validate a model? Putting it another way, we want to show that a particularmodel or algorithm is the cause of a certain improvement to the RM process compared to theexisting process. We take care to emphasize that we want to prove the said model as the causeof performance, and to compare against a (incumbent) process rather than against an alternatemodel.In this paper we describe a \live" testing experiment that we conducted at Iberia Airlineson a set of flights. A set of competing algorithms control a set of flights during adjacentweeks, and their behavior and results are observed over a relatively long period of time (9months). In parallel, a group of control flights were managed using the traditional mix of manualand algorithmic control (incumbent system). Such \sandbox" testing, while common at manylarge internet search and e-commerce companies is relatively rare in the revenue managementarea. Sandbox testing has an undisputable model of customer behavior but the experimentaldesign and analysis of results is less clear. In this paper we describe the philosophy behind theexperiment, the organizational challenges, the design and setup of the experiment, and outlinethe analysis of the results. This paper is a complement to a (more technical) related paper thatdescribes the econometrics and statistical analysis of the results.