Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilising long-term Doppler lidar observations

Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model

Well-resolved air–sea interactions are simulated in a new ocean mixed-layer, coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML), comprising the MetUM coupled to the Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization ocean (MC-KPP). This is the first globally coupled system which provides a vertically resolved, high near-surface resolution ocean at comparable computational cost to running in atmosphere-only mode. As well as being computationally inexpensive, this modelling framework is adaptable– the independent MC-KPP columns can be applied selectively in space and time – and controllable – by using temperature and salinity corrections the model can be constrained to any ocean state. The framework provides a powerful research tool for process-based studies of the impact of air–sea interactions in the global climate system. MetUM simulations have been performed which separate the impact of introducing inter- annual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the impact of having atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. The representation of key aspects of tropical and extratropical variability are used to assess the performance of these simulations. Coupling the MetUM to MC-KPP is shown, for example, to reduce tropical precipitation biases, improve the propagation of, and spectral power associated with, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and produce closer-to-observed patterns of springtime blocking activity over the Euro-Atlantic region.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Sea-breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterization in weather and climate model biases

There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

SU(5)circle times Z(13) grand unification model

We propose an SU(5) grand unified model with an invisible axion and the unification of the three coupling constants which is in agreement with the values, at M(Z), of alpha, alpha(s), and sin(2)theta(W). A discrete, anomalous, Z(13) symmetry implies that the Peccei-Quinn symmetry is an automatic symmetry of the classical Lagrangian protecting, at the same time, the invisible axion against possible semiclassical gravity effects. Although the unification scale is of the order of the Peccei-Quinn scale the proton is stabilized by the fact that in this model the standard model fields form the SU(5) multiplets completed by new exotic fields and, also, because it is protected by the Z(13) symmetry.

Mechanical behavior in living cells consistent with the tensegrity model

Alternative models of cell mechanics depict the living cell as a simple mechanical continuum, porous filament gel, tensed cortical membrane, or tensegrity network that maintains a stabilizing prestress through incorporation of discrete structural elements that bear compression. Real-time microscopic analysis of cells containing GFP-labeled microtubules and associated mitochondria revealed that living cells behave like discrete structures composed of an interconnected network of actin microfilaments and microtubules when mechanical stresses are applied to cell surface integrin receptors. Quantitation of cell tractional forces and cellular prestress by using traction force microscopy confirmed that microtubules bear compression and are responsible for a significant portion of the cytoskeletal prestress that determines cell shape stability under conditions in which myosin light chain phosphorylation and intracellular calcium remained unchanged. Quantitative measurements of both static and dynamic mechanical behaviors in cells also were consistent with specific a priori predictions of the tensegrity model. These findings suggest that tensegrity represents a unified model of cell mechanics that may help to explain how mechanical behaviors emerge through collective interactions among different cytoskeletal filaments and extracellular adhesions in living cells.

Probabilistic resource space model for managing resources in cyber-physical society

Classification is the most basic method for organizing resources in the physical space, cyber space, socio space and mental space. To create a unified model that can effectively manage resources in different spaces is a challenge. The Resource Space Model RSM is to manage versatile resources with a multi-dimensional classification space. It supports generalization and specialization on multi-dimensional classifications. This paper introduces the basic concepts of RSM, and proposes the Probabilistic Resource Space Model, P-RSM, to deal with uncertainty in managing various resources in different spaces of the cyber-physical society. P-RSM’s normal forms, operations and integrity constraints are developed to support effective management of the resource space. Characteristics of the P-RSM are analyzed through experiments. This model also enables various services to be described, discovered and composed from multiple dimensions and abstraction levels with normal form and integrity guarantees. Some extensions and applications of the P-RSM are introduced.

Achieving superior SME performance : overarching role of marketing, innovation, and learning capabilities

While most studies examine the effect of marketing, innovation, and learning capabilities (often separately) on performance, this study develops a unified model to investigate the combined effect of these capabilities on performance. This study further examines the complementary effect of these capabilities on performance. This study draws on the resource-based view theory to examine 171 manufacturing SMEs. The findings suggest that marketing, innovation, and learning capabilities are positively related to SME performance. In addition, these capabilities interact with one another to create great synergy in achieving SME performance.

Higher-Order Nonlinearity In Accretion Disks: Quasi-Periodic Oscillations Of Black Hole And Neutron Star Sources And Their Spin

We propose a unified model to explain Quasi-Periodic Oscillation (QPO), particularly of high frequency, observed from black hole and neutron star systems globally. We consider accreting systems to be damped harmonic oscillators exhibiting epicyclic oscillations with higher-order nonlinear resonance to explain QPO. The resonance is expected to be driven by the disturbance from the compact object at its spin frequency. The model explains various properties parallelly for both types of the compact object. It describes QPOs successfully for ten different compact sources. Based on this, we predict the spin frequency of the neutron star Sco X-1 and specific angular momentum of black holes GRO J1655–40, XTE J1550–564, H1743–322, and GRS 1915+105.

A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the long- and short-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Australia using the bound testing and the ARDL approach. The analytical framework utilized in this paper includes both production and demand side models and a unified model comprising both production and demand side variables. The energy-GDP relationships are investigated at aggregate as well as several disaggregated energy categories, such as coal, oil, gas and electricity. The possibilities of one or more structural break(s) in the data series are examined by applying the recent advances in techniques. We find that the results of the cointegration tests could be affected by the structural break(s) in the data. It is, therefore, crucial to incorporate the information on structural break(s) in the subsequent modelling and inferences. Moreover, neither the production side nor the demand side framework alone can provide sufficient information to draw an ultimate conclusion on the cointegration and causal direction between energy and output. When alternative frameworks and structural break(s) in time series are explored properly, strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship between energy and output can be observed. The finding is true at both the aggregate and the disaggregate levels of energy consumption.

Transcriptional switching in Escherichia coli during stress and starvation by modulation of Sigma 70 activity

During active growth of Escherichia coli, majority of the transcriptional activity is carried out by the housekeeping sigma factor (Sigma 70), whose association with core RNAP is generally favoured because of its higher intracellular level and higher affinity to core RNAP. In order to facilitate transcription by alternative sigma factors during nutrient starvation, the bacterial cell uses multiple strategies by which the transcriptional ability of Sigma 70 is diminished in a reversible manner. The facilitators of shifting the balance in favour of alternative sigma factors happen to be as diverse as a small molecule (p)ppGpp (represents ppGpp or pppGpp), proteins (DksA, Rsd) and a species of RNA (6S RNA). Although 6S RNA and (p)ppGpp were known in literature for a long time, their role in transcriptional switching has been understood only in recent years. With themelucidation of function of DksA, a new dimension has been added to the phenomenon of stringent response. As the final outcome of actions of (p)ppGpp, DksA, 6S RNA and Rsd is similar, there is a need to analyse hese mechanisms in a collective manner. We review the recent trends in understanding the regulation of Sigma 70 by (p)ppGpp, DksA, Rsd and 6S RNA and present a case for evolving a unified model of RNAP redistribution during starvation by modulation of Sigma 70 activity in E. coli.

Adaptive optimal tuning of a general class of stable LTI systems with restricted inputs

The problem addressed is one of model reference adaptive control (MRAC) of asymptotically stable plants of unknown order with zeros located anywhere in the s-plane except at the origin. The reference model is also asymptotically stable and lacking zero(s) at s = 0. The control law is to be specified only in terms of the inputs to and outputs of the plant and the reference model. For inputs from a class of functions that approach a non-zero constant, the problem is formulated in an optimal control framework. By successive refinements of the sub-optimal laws proposed here, two schemes are finally design-ed. These schemes are characterized by boundedness, convergence and optimality. Simplicity and total time-domain implementation are the additional striking features. Simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of the control schemes are presented.

Invisible decays of the lightest Higgs boson in supersymmetric models

We consider supersymmetric models in which the lightest Higgs scalar can decay invisibly consistent with the constraints on the 126 GeV state discovered at the CERN LHC. We consider the invisible decay in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM), as well its extension containing an additional chiral singlet superfield, the so-called next-to-minimal or nonminimal supersymmetric standard model (NMSSM). We consider the case of MSSM with both universal as well as nonuniversal gaugino masses at the grand unified scale, and find that only an E-6 grand unified model with unnaturally large representation can give rise to sufficiently light neutralinos which can possibly lead to the invisible decay h(0) -> (chi) over tilde (0)(1)(chi) over tilde (0)(1). Following this, we consider the case of NMSSM in detail, where we also find that it is not possible to have the invisible decay of the lightest Higgs scalar with universal gaugino masses at the grand unified scale. We delineate the regions of the NMSSM parameter space where it is possible for the lightest Higgs boson to have a mass of about 126 GeV, and then concentrate on the region where this Higgs can decay into light neutralinos, with the soft gaugino masses M-1 and M-2 as two independent parameters, unconstrained by grand unification. We also consider, simultaneously, the other important invisible Higgs decay channel in the NMSSM, namely the decay into the lightest CP-odd scalars, h(1) -> a(1)a(1), which is studied in detail. With the invisible Higgs branching ratio being constrained by the present LHC results, we find that mu(eff) < 170 GeV and M-1 < 80 GeV are disfavored in NMSSM for fixed values of the other input parameters. The dependence of our results on the parameters of NMSSM is discussed in detail.