Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Gender bias in schooling : the case for Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are a primary cause of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While a number of studies have focused on the inequality of educational opportunities in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This study uses recent household expenditure data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey to evaluate the gender gap in the allocation of resources for schooling. The findings, based on cross-sectional as well as household fixed-effect approaches, suggest that girls are less likely to enrol in school but are not allocated fewer resources once they are enrolled.

Assessment bias : physical activity questionnaire assessment inadvertently influences patients’ desire to be ‘more physically active’

Evaluating physical activity is important for public health population research and evaluating lifestyle interventions among targeted groups. Self-reported questionnaires are frequently used to evaluate physical activity in a variety of contexts where resource or pragmatic limitations prohibit the use of more sophisticated approaches. However, prior research in the use of other patient reported outcomes in healthcare settings has highlighted that simply completing a questionnaire may change a patients’ behaviour or responses to subsequent questions. This methodology study aimed to examine whether completing a standard physical activity questionnaire altered patients responses to two related questions a) whether they are ‘sufficiently physically active’ and b) whether they desire ‘to be more physically active.’

A known-groups evaluation of the Response Bias Scale in a neuropsychological setting

We evaluated the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Second Edition (MMPI-2) Response Bias Scale (RBS). Archival data from 83 individuals who were referred for neuropsychological assessment with no formal diagnosis (n = 10), following a known or suspected traumatic brain injury (n = 36), with a psychiatric diagnosis (n = 20), or with a history of both trauma and a psychiatric condition (n = 17) were retrieved. The criteria for malingered neurocognitive dysfunction (MNCD) were applied, and two groups of participants were formed: poor effort (n = 15) and genuine responders (n = 68). Consistent with previous studies, the difference in scores between groups was greatest for the RBS (d = 2.44), followed by two established MMPI-2 validity scales, F (d = 0.25) and K (d = 0.23), and strong significant correlations were found between RBS and F (rs = .48) and RBS and K (r = −.41). When MNCD group membership was predicted using logistic regression, the RBS failed to add incrementally to F. In a separate regression to predict group membership, K added significantly to the RBS. Receiver-operating curve analysis revealed a nonsignificant area under the curve statistic, and at the ideal cutoff in this sample of >12, specificity was moderate (.79), sensitivity was low (.47), and positive and negative predictive power values at a 13% base rate were .25 and .91, respectively. Although the results of this study require replication because of a number of limitations, this study has made an important first attempt to report RBS classification accuracy statistics for predicting poor effort at a range of base rates.

The correlation between electric field emission phenomenon and Schottky contact reverse bias characteristics in nanostructured systems

Two different morphologies of nanotextured molybdenum oxide were deposited by thermal evaporation. By measuring their field emission (FE) properties, an enhancement factor was extracted. Subsequently, these films were coated with a thin layer of Pt to form Schottky contacts. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics showed low magnitude reverse breakdown voltages, which we attributed to the localized electric field enhancement. An enhancement factor was obtained from the I-V curves. We will show that the enhancement factor extracted from the I-V curves is in good agreement with the enhancement factor extracted from the FE measurements.

A comparison of forward and reverse bias operation in a Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode based hydrogen sensor

A hydrogen gas sensor based on Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode has been developed. Our proposed theoretical model allows for the explanation of superior dynamic performance of the reverse biased diode when compared to the forward bias operation. The sensor was evaluated with low concentration H2 gas exposures over a temperature range of 280°C to 430°C. Upon exposure to H2 gas, the effective change in free carrier concentration at the Pt/structured ZnO interface is amplified by an enhancement factor, effectively lowering the reverse barrier, producing a large voltage shift. The lowering of the reverse barrier permits a faster response in reverse bias operation, than in forward bias operation.

Bias in full effect

Interview and discussion on Robot University and AUTHENTIC IN ALL CAPS, transmedia creative works by Christy Dena.

Construal level and ingroup bias

The causal relationship between mental construal level and ingroup bias remains elusive. This paper uncovers a boundary condition and a mechanism underlying the relationship. We predict and find support for our hypotheses in four experiments conducted in East Asian and Western cultures. Data showed that a high- (vs. low-) level construal activated state belongingness, but had no effect on state rejection, state self-esteem, positive emotion, or negative emotion in participants from Korea (Experiment 1) and Australia (Experiment 3). Moreover, a high- (vs. low-) level construal triggered greater ingroup bias for Koreans (Experiment 2) and Australians (Experiment 3) primed with a relational self, but not for those primed with an independent self. This construal level effect on ingroup bias was eliminated when belongingness was primed at both a high- and a low-level construal; instead, relationals under a low-level construal were more ingroup-biased when they were primed with a belongingness (vs. baseline) condition (Experiment 4). These findings highlight that the relational self is a boundary condition for the construal level-ingroup bias link; belongingness explains the relationship.

The effect of varied test instructions on neuropsychological performance following mild traumatic brain injury : an investigation of ‘diagnosis threat’

Diagnosis threat is a psychosocial factor that has been proposed to contribute to poor outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). This threat is thought to impair the cognitive test performance of individuals with mTBI because of negative injury stereotypes. University students (N= 45, 62.2% female) with a history of mTBI were randomly allocated to a diagnosis threat (DT, n=15), reduced threat (DT-reduced, n=15) or neutral (n=15) group. The reduced threat condition invoked a positive stereotype (i.e., that people with mTBI can perform well on cognitive tests). All participants were given neutral instructions before they completed baseline tests of: a) objective cognitive function across a number of domains; b) psychological symptoms; and, c) PCS symptoms, including self-reported cognitive and emotional difficulties. Participants then received either neutral, DT or DT-reduced instructions, before repeating the tests. Results were analyzed using separate mixed model ANOVAs; one for each dependent measure. The only significant result was for the 2 X 3 ANOVA on an objective test of attention/working memory, Digit Span, p<.05, such that the DT-reduced group performed better than the other groups, which were not different from each other. Although not consistent with predictions or earlier DT studies, the absence of group differences on most tests fits with several recent DT findings. The results of this study suggest that it is timely to reconsider the role of DT as a unique contributor to poor mTBI outcome.

Understanding player threat responses in FPS games

This paper describes the results of a study designed to understand the components contributing to a participant's assessment of threatening situations in a competitive First Person Shooter (FPS) game Quake III: Arena. The analysis process described compares theoretical, questionnaire based data with that of actual game play footage and identifies how skill and experience can affect a player's ability to accurately assess threat. This research also identifies relationships between variables contributing to a participant's threat assessment process which are not usually acknowledged in game AI design. A suggestion for integrating player-like threat based decision making processes is proposed.

The threat of CHikungunya in Oceanea

The Oceania region, which includes Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and the islands of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has historically been free from chikungunya. However, the 2011 outbreak in New Caledonia and the ongoing outbreak in Papua New Guinea have highlighted the risk to other communities in Oceania where there are competent mosquito vectors and permissive social factors and environmental conditions. In this article we discuss the threat to this region that is posed by the recent evolution of the E1:A226V mutant strains of chikungunya virus (CHIKV).

Non-response bias in randomized control experiments in criminology : putting the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET) under a microscope

Objectives The goal of this article is to examine whether or not the results of the Queensland Community Engagement Trial (QCET)-a randomized controlled trial that tested the impact of procedural justice policing on citizen attitudes toward police-were affected by different types of nonresponse bias. Method We use two methods (Cochrane and Elffers methods) to explore nonresponse bias: First, we assess the impact of the low response rate by examining the effects of nonresponse group differences between the experimental and control conditions and pooled variance under different scenarios. Second, we assess the degree to which item response rates are influenced by the control and experimental conditions. Results Our analysis of the QCET data suggests that our substantive findings are not influenced by the low response rate in the trial. The results are robust even under extreme conditions, and statistical significance of the results would only be compromised in cases where the pooled variance was much larger for the nonresponse group and the difference between experimental and control conditions was greatly diminished. We also find that there were no biases in the item response rates across the experimental and control conditions. Conclusion RCTs that involve field survey responses-like QCET-are potentially compromised by low response rates and how item response rates might be influenced by the control or experimental conditions. Our results show that the QCET results were not sensitive to the overall low response rate across the experimental and control conditions and the item response rates were not significantly different across the experimental and control groups. Overall, our analysis suggests that the results of QCET are robust and any biases in the survey responses do not significantly influence the main experimental findings.