Master Plan for Renewable Energy based Electricity Generation in The Gambia

The principal objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for the formulation of a master plan for renewable energy based electricity generation in The Gambia, Africa. Such a master plan aims to develop and promote renewable sources of energy as an alternative to conventional forms of energy for generating electricity in the country. A tailor-made methodology for the preparation of a 20-year renewable energy master plan focussed on electricity generation is proposed in order to be followed and verified throughout the present dissertation, as it is applied for The Gambia. The main input data for the proposed master plan are (i) energy demand analysis and forecast over 20 years and (ii) resource assessment for different renewable energy alternatives including their related power supply options. The energy demand forecast is based on a mix between Top-Down and Bottom-Up methodologies. The results are important data for future requirements of (primary) energy sources. The electricity forecast is separated in projections at sent-out level and at end-user level. On the supply side, Solar, Wind and Biomass, as sources of energy, are investigated in terms of technical potential and economic benefits for The Gambia. Other criteria i.e. environmental and social are not considered in the evaluation. Diverse supply options are proposed and technically designed based on the assessed renewable energy potential. This process includes the evaluation of the different available conversion technologies and finalizes with the dimensioning of power supply solutions, taking into consideration technologies which are applicable and appropriate under the special conditions of The Gambia. The balance of these two input data (demand and supply) gives a quantitative indication of the substitution potential of renewable energy generation alternatives in primarily fossil-fuel-based electricity generation systems, as well as fuel savings due to the deployment of renewable resources. Afterwards, the identified renewable energy supply options are ranked according to the outcomes of an economic analysis. Based on this ranking, and other considerations, a 20-year investment plan, broken down into five-year investment periods, is prepared and consists of individual renewable energy projects for electricity generation. These projects included basically on-grid renewable energy applications. Finally, a priority project from the master plan portfolio is selected for further deeper analysis. Since solar PV is the most relevant proposed technology, a PV power plant integrated to the fossil-fuel powered main electrical system in The Gambia is considered as priority project. This project is analysed by economic competitiveness under the current conditions in addition to sensitivity analysis with regard to oil and new-technology market conditions in the future.

Core Labor Rights

The working paper’s main objective is to explore the extent to which non-compliance to international labor rights is caused by global competition. From the perspective of institutional economics, compliance with core labor rights is beneficial for sustainable development. Nonetheless, violations of these rights occur on a massive scale. The violators usually blame competitive pressures. A number of studies have come to the conclusion that non-compliance does not provide for a competitive edge, thereby denying any economic rationale for non-compliance. While we sympathize with this conclusion, we find that these studies suffer from faulty assumptions in the design of their regression analyses. The assumption of perfect markets devoid of power relations is particularly unrealistic. While workers' rights promise long-term benefits, they may incur short-term production cost increases. On the supply side, the production sites with the highest amount of labor rights violations are characterized by a near perfect competitive situation. The demand side, however, is dominated by an oligopoly of brand name companies and large retailers. Facing a large pool of suppliers, these companies enjoy more bargaining power. Developing countries, the hosts to most of these suppliers, are therefore limited in their ability to raise labor standards on their own. This competitive situation, however, is the very reason why labor rights have to be negotiated internationally. Our exploration starts with an outline of the institutionalist argument of the benefits of core labor rights. Second, we briefly examine some cross-country empirical studies on the impact of trade liberalization (as a proxy for competitive pressures). Third, we develop our own argument which differentiates the impact of trade liberalization along the axes of labor- and capital-intensive production as well as low and medium skill production. Finally, we present evidence from a study on the impact of trade liberalization in Indonesia on the garment industry as an example of a low skill, laborintensive industry on the one hand, and the automobile as an example for a medium skill, capital-intensive industry on the other hand. Because the garment industry’s workforce consists mainly of women, we also discuss the gender dimension of trade liberalization.

Caso Fondo Nacional del Ahorro: recomendaciones para la optimización del Programa de Promoción de Vivienda

El presente documento constituye un estudio de caso que se desarrolló de acuerdo a los lineamientos planteados en el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2010 – 2014 “Prosperidad para todos”, en la que el Gobierno define que se deben otorgar 1.000.000 de soluciones de vivienda a nivel nacional en este periodo presidencial, de las cuales 254.920 soluciones son responsabilidad del Fondo Nacional del Ahorro. Por lo tanto, se analizan las estrategias que ha venido desarrollando el FNA con el propósito de proponer alternativas que permitan a la alta dirección de la entidad tomar decisiones coherentes con los modelos de promoción de vivienda, los cuales han estado alineados con el cumplimiento de los objetivos definidos por el Gobierno Nacional en el eje central de vivienda.

Poor people and risky business

We try to explain why economic conflicts and illegal business often take place in poor countries. We use the concept of subsistence level of consumption (d) and assume a regular concave utility function for consumption levels higher than d. For consumption levels lower than d utility is constant and equal to zero. Under this framework poor agents are risk-lovers. This result helps to explain why economic conflicts are more likely to appear in poor economies and why poor agents are more willing to undertake illegal business.

Seguros de desempleo: revisión de literatura y propuesta para Colombia

En este artículo se estudia la posibilidad de introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. En una primera parte, se propone una revisión de literatura de los seguros de desempleo en la cual se exponen las ventajas generadas por una cobertura contra este riesgo, así como sus inconvenientes. En una segunda parte, se estudian varios escenarios para introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. Después de haber presentado el contexto del mercado laboral y de las normas que lo vigilan, se proponen varios diseños que abordan la gestión y la administración del riesgo de desempleo en Colombia. Igualmente se presentan algunas consideraciones teóricas para la valoración del costo del aseguramiento, las cuales incorporan los efectos del riesgo moral sobre la duración y la incidencia del desempleo.

Aseguramiento para la población pobre: una herramienta de protección financiera

La financiación de los sistemas de salud en los países en desarrollo mediante esquemas de aseguramiento, presenta el desafío estructural de la informalidad de los mercados laborales. Ni el esquema de financiamiento comunitario ni el del subsidio a la oferta, parecen ofrecer una garantía de acceso a los grupos más vulnerables. Pero la extensión de esquemas de seguro subsidiado también implica mayores presiones sobre el gasto social. Este artículo es una revisión de la literatura sobre el tema, en el cual se revisan experiencias internacionales de los tipos mencionados, y se analiza su relevancia para Colombia.

Sustainable development, rolled-out neoliberalism and sustainable communities

Recent contributions by geographers on the relationships between states and citizens have documented the rise of rolled-out neoliberalism. Development agendas are, it is argued, increasingly dominated by the principles of market-driven reforms, social inequality, and a drive towards enhancing the economic competitiveness of the supply side of the economy. However, at the same time, a parallel set of discourses has emerged in the development literature which argues that it is principles of sustainable development that have, in practice, become dominant. The emphasis is, instead, on democratic empowerment, environmental conservation, and social justice. This paper examines the relationships between these ostensibly very different interpretations of contemporary development with an assessment of one of the Labour government's most ambitious planning agendas-the publication in February 2003 of the document Sustainable Communities: Building for the Future. The proposals are promoted as a "step change" in the planning system with a new emphasis on tackling shortages of housing in the South East and reviving the economy of the Thames Gateway area. The paper assesses the different ways in which such programmes can be interpreted and argues that contemporary development practices in countries such as Britain are constituted by a hybridity of approaches and rationalities and cannot be reduced to simple characterisations of rolled-out neoliberalism or sustainable development.

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.

Why was urban overcrowding much more severe in Scotland than in the rest of the British Isles? Evidence from the first (1904) official household expenditure survey

This article presents an analysis of British urban working-class housing conditions in 1904, using a rediscovered survey. We investigate overcrowding and find major regional differences. Scottish households in the survey were more overcrowded despite being less poor. Investigating the causes of this overcrowding, we find little support for supply-side theories or for the idea that the Scottish households in our survey experienced particularly great variations in income, causing them to commit to overly modest accommodation. We present evidence that is consistent with idea that particularly tough Scottish tenancy and local tax laws caused excess overcrowding. We also provide evidence that Scottish workers had a relatively high preference for food, rather than housing, expenditure, which can be at least partly attributed to their inheritance of more communal patterns of urban living.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

A vision for attaining food security

Food is fundamental to human wellbeing and development. Increased food production remains a cornerstone strategy in the effort to alleviate global food insecurity. But despite the fact that global food production over the past half century has kept ahead of demand, today around one billion people do not have enough to eat, and a further billion lack adequate nutrition. Food insecurity is facing mounting supply-side and demand-side pressures; key among these are climate change, urbanisation, globalisation, population increases, disease, as well as a number of other factors that are changing patterns of food consumption. Many of the challenges to equitable food access are concentrated in developing countries where environmental pressures including climate change, population growth and other socio-economic issues are concentrated. Together these factors impede people's access to sufficient, nutritious food; chiefly through affecting livelihoods, income and food prices. Food security and human development go hand in hand, and their outcomes are co-determined to a significant degree. The challenge of food security is multi-scalar and cross-sector in nature. Addressing it will require the work of diverse actors to bring sustained improvements inhuman development and to reduce pressure on the environment. Unless there is investment in future food systems that are similarly cross-level, cross-scale and cross-sector, sustained improvements in human wellbeing together with reduced environmental risks and scarcities will not be achieved. This paper reviews current thinking, and outlines these challenges. It suggests that essential elements in a successfully adaptive and proactive food system include: learning through connectivity between scales to local experience and technologies high levels of interaction between diverse actors and sectors ranging from primary producers to retailers and consumers, and use of frontier technologies.

Economic growth: a panacea for child labour?

In this paper, we test whether economic growth decreases child labour by bringing together data from the National Sample Survey of India and state-level macro data to estimate a bivariate probit model of schooling and labour. Our results lead us to conclude that contrary to popular wisdom, growth actually increases rather than decreases child labour because it increases the demand for child workers. The level of state NDP, village wages and household incomes are seen as the conduits through which growth influences the supply side of the child labour market.

Structure, conduct and the stochastic volatility of food markets: theory and empirics

The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined. Atheoretic, vector auto regressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages. Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.

The Golden Dawn's 'nationalist solution': explaining the rise of the far right in Greece

The book is concerned with the rise of the Greek Golden Dawn. Although most literature focuses on demand and supply-side explanations, this book progresses beyond the state of the art by examining the Golden Dawn as an outlier and focusing on political culture as an explanation for its dramatic rise.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 degrees C above present (approximately 2.7 degrees C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (< 500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 degrees C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 degrees C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.