Performance evaluation of an adaptive travel time prediction model

This paper presents a travel time prediction model and evaluates its performance and transferability. Advanced Travelers Information Systems (ATIS) are gaining more and more importance, increasing the need for accurate, timely and useful information to the travelers. Travel time information quantifies the traffic condition in an easy to understand way for the users. The proposed travel time prediction model is based on an efficient use of nearest neighbor search. The model is calibrated for optimal performance using Genetic Algorithms. Results indicate better performance by using the proposed model than the presently used naïve model.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

QoS-oriented resource allocation and scheduling of multiple composite Web services in a hybrid cloud using a random-key genetic algorithm

In cloud computing resource allocation and scheduling of multiple composite web services is an important challenge. This is especially so in a hybrid cloud where there may be some free resources available from private clouds but some fee-paying resources from public clouds. Meeting this challenge involves two classical computational problems. One is assigning resources to each of the tasks in the composite web service. The other is scheduling the allocated resources when each resource may be used by more than one task and may be needed at different points of time. In addition, we must consider Quality-of-Service issues, such as execution time and running costs. Existing approaches to resource allocation and scheduling in public clouds and grid computing are not applicable to this new problem. This paper presents a random-key genetic algorithm that solves new resource allocation and scheduling problem. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the algorithm.

Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.