Modelos autorregressivos com valores inteiros não negativos : aplicação em séries económicas de Cabo Verde

No estudo de séries temporais, os processos estocásticos usuais assumem que as distribuições marginais são contínuas e, em geral, não são adequados para modelar séries de contagem, pois as suas características não lineares colocam alguns problemas estatísticos, principalmente na estimação dos parâmetros. Assim, investigou-se metodologias apropriadas de análise e modelação de séries com distribuições marginais discretas. Neste contexto, Al-Osh and Alzaid (1987) e McKenzie (1988) introduziram na literatura a classe dos modelos autorregressivos com valores inteiros não negativos, os processos INAR. Estes modelos têm sido frequentemente tratados em artigos científicos ao longo das últimas décadas, pois a sua importância nas aplicações em diversas áreas do conhecimento tem despertado um grande interesse no seu estudo. Neste trabalho, após uma breve revisão sobre séries temporais e os métodos clássicos para a sua análise, apresentamos os modelos autorregressivos de valores inteiros não negativos de primeira ordem INAR (1) e a sua extensão para uma ordem p, as suas propriedades e alguns métodos de estimação dos parâmetros nomeadamente, o método de Yule-Walker, o método de Mínimos Quadrados Condicionais (MQC), o método de Máxima Verosimilhança Condicional (MVC) e o método de Quase Máxima Verosimilhança (QMV). Apresentamos também um critério automático de seleção de ordem para modelos INAR, baseado no Critério de Informação de Akaike Corrigido, AICC, um dos critérios usados para determinar a ordem em modelos autorregressivos, AR. Finalmente, apresenta-se uma aplicação da metodologia dos modelos INAR em dados reais de contagem relativos aos setores dos transportes marítimos e atividades de seguros de Cabo Verde.

Simulação da dinâmica operacional de um processo industrial de abate de aves

Este trabalho foi conduzido com o objetivo de implementar um modelo computacional empregando a linguagem de simulação EXTEND TM para: a) simular a dinâmica de atividades de um matadouro-frigorífico de aves; e b) conduzir experimentos de análise de sensibilidade. Para tanto, foi implementado um modelo dinâmico, estocástico e discreto. O sistema real modelado está localizado na região sudoeste do Paraná, onde são abatidas cerca de 500000 aves por dia, empregando três linhas de processamento operando em três turnos diários. Na validação do modelo foram coletados dados relativos a três turnos e comparadas as variáveis de saída obtidas a partir do sistema real e as geradas pelo modelo, as quais foram: i) tempo de processamento; ii) peso vivo total; iii) peso vivo aproveitado; iv) peso de subproduto; v) peso da produção total; vi) peso do frango inteiro; e vii) peso total dos cortes. O modelo implementado demonstrou ser aplicável, uma vez que os erros médios percentuais foram inferiores a 1,13%. O experimento de análise de sensibilidade conduzido, mediante as alterações das velocidades de processamento das linhas em 7000, 8000 e 9000 frangos h-1, apresentou os seguintes valores médios para a variável tempo de processamento: 8,69; 7,86 e 7,86 horas, respectivamente. Além disso, o experimento demonstrou que a velocidade de processamento de 9000 frangos h-1 não implica na direta redução do tempo de processamento, pois a cadência de chegada das cargas pode ter ocasionado períodos de ociosidade do matadouro-frigorífico.

Modelo Estocástico para bloqueio de poros e redução de permeabilidade

Modeling transport of particulate suspensions in porous media is essential for understanding various processes of industrial and scientific interest. During these processes, particles are retained due to mechanisms like size exclusion (straining), adsorption, sedimentation and diffusion. In this thesis, a mathematical model is proposed and analytical solutions are obtained. The obtained analytic solutions for the proposed model, which takes pore and particle size distributions into account, were applied to predict the particle retention, pore blocking and permeability reduction during dead-end microfiltration in membranes. Various scenarios, considering different particle and pore size distributions were studied. The obtained results showed that pore blocking and permeability reduction are highly influenced by the initial pore and particle size distributions. This feature was observed even when different initial pore and particle size distributions with the same average pore size and injected particle size were considered. Finally, a mathematical model for predicting equivalent permeability in porous media during particle retention (and pore blocking) is proposed and the obtained solutions were applied to study permeability decline in different scenarios

Estudo das propriedades críticas do processo epidêmico por par com difusão de pares

The pair contact process - PCP is a nonequilibrium stochastic model which, like the basic contact process - CP, exhibits a phase transition to an absorbing state. While the absorbing state CP corresponds to a unique configuration (empty lattice), the PCP process infinitely many. Numerical and theoretical studies, nevertheless, indicate that the PCP belongs to the same universality class as the CP (direct percolation class), but with anomalies in the critical spreading dynamics. An infinite number of absorbing configurations arise in the PCP because all process (creation and annihilation) require a nearest-neighbor pair of particles. The diffusive pair contact process - PCPD) was proposed by Grassberger in 1982. But the interest in the problem follows its rediscovery by the Langevin description. On the basis of numerical results and renormalization group arguments, Carlon, Henkel and Schollwöck (2001), suggested that certain critical exponents in the PCPD had values similar to those of the party-conserving - PC class. On the other hand, Hinrichsen (2001), reported simulation results inconsistent with the PC class, and proposed that the PCPD belongs to a new universality class. The controversy regarding the universality of the PCPD remains unresolved. In the PCPD, a nearest-neighbor pair of particles is necessary for the process of creation and annihilation, but the particles to diffuse individually. In this work we study the PCPD with diffusion of pair, in which isolated particles cannot move; a nearest-neighbor pair diffuses as a unit. Using quasistationary simulation, we determined with good precision the critical point and critical exponents for three values of the diffusive probability: D=0.5 and D=0.1. For D=0.5: PC=0.89007(3), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.573(1), =1.10(2), m=1.1758(24). For D=0.1: PC=0.9172(1), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.579(11), =1.11(4), m=1.173(4)

Propriedades críticas do processo epidêmico difusivo com interação de Lévy

The diffusive epidemic process (PED) is a nonequilibrium stochastic model which, exhibits a phase trnasition to an absorbing state. In the model, healthy (A) and sick (B) individuals diffuse on a lattice with diffusion constants DA and DB, respectively. According to a Wilson renormalization calculation, the system presents a first-order phase transition, for the case DA > DB. Several researches performed simulation works for test this is conjecture, but it was not possible to observe this first-order phase transition. The explanation given was that we needed to perform simulation to higher dimensions. In this work had the motivation to investigate the critical behavior of a diffusive epidemic propagation with Lévy interaction(PEDL), in one-dimension. The Lévy distribution has the interaction of diffusion of all sizes taking the one-dimensional system for a higher-dimensional. We try to explain this is controversy that remains unresolved, for the case DA > DB. For this work, we use the Monte Carlo Method with resuscitation. This is method is to add a sick individual in the system when the order parameter (sick density) go to zero. We apply a finite size scalling for estimates the critical point and the exponent critical =, e z, for the case DA > DB

Modelo cinético estocástico para a transcrição considerando colisões entre as moléculas de RNA polimerase

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Transcrição cooperativa de genes ribossomais em Escherichia coli usando um modelo estocástico e dependente de sequência

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelo Estocástico para bloqueio de poros e redução de permeabilidade

Modeling transport of particulate suspensions in porous media is essential for understanding various processes of industrial and scientific interest. During these processes, particles are retained due to mechanisms like size exclusion (straining), adsorption, sedimentation and diffusion. In this thesis, a mathematical model is proposed and analytical solutions are obtained. The obtained analytic solutions for the proposed model, which takes pore and particle size distributions into account, were applied to predict the particle retention, pore blocking and permeability reduction during dead-end microfiltration in membranes. Various scenarios, considering different particle and pore size distributions were studied. The obtained results showed that pore blocking and permeability reduction are highly influenced by the initial pore and particle size distributions. This feature was observed even when different initial pore and particle size distributions with the same average pore size and injected particle size were considered. Finally, a mathematical model for predicting equivalent permeability in porous media during particle retention (and pore blocking) is proposed and the obtained solutions were applied to study permeability decline in different scenarios

Estudo das propriedades críticas do processo epidêmico por par com difusão de pares

The pair contact process - PCP is a nonequilibrium stochastic model which, like the basic contact process - CP, exhibits a phase transition to an absorbing state. While the absorbing state CP corresponds to a unique configuration (empty lattice), the PCP process infinitely many. Numerical and theoretical studies, nevertheless, indicate that the PCP belongs to the same universality class as the CP (direct percolation class), but with anomalies in the critical spreading dynamics. An infinite number of absorbing configurations arise in the PCP because all process (creation and annihilation) require a nearest-neighbor pair of particles. The diffusive pair contact process - PCPD) was proposed by Grassberger in 1982. But the interest in the problem follows its rediscovery by the Langevin description. On the basis of numerical results and renormalization group arguments, Carlon, Henkel and Schollwöck (2001), suggested that certain critical exponents in the PCPD had values similar to those of the party-conserving - PC class. On the other hand, Hinrichsen (2001), reported simulation results inconsistent with the PC class, and proposed that the PCPD belongs to a new universality class. The controversy regarding the universality of the PCPD remains unresolved. In the PCPD, a nearest-neighbor pair of particles is necessary for the process of creation and annihilation, but the particles to diffuse individually. In this work we study the PCPD with diffusion of pair, in which isolated particles cannot move; a nearest-neighbor pair diffuses as a unit. Using quasistationary simulation, we determined with good precision the critical point and critical exponents for three values of the diffusive probability: D=0.5 and D=0.1. For D=0.5: PC=0.89007(3), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.573(1), =1.10(2), m=1.1758(24). For D=0.1: PC=0.9172(1), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.579(11), =1.11(4), m=1.173(4)

Comparação da eficiência do processo de ozonização e ozonização catalítica (Mn II e Cu II) na degradação de fenol

This paper discusses the results obtained with homogeneous catalytic ozonation [Mn (II) and Cu (II)] in phenol degradation. The reduction of total phenols and total organic carbon (TOC) and the ozone consumption were evaluated. The efficiency in phenol degradation (total phenol removal) at pH 3, with the catalytic process (Mn (II)), increased from 37% to 55% while the TOC removal increased from 4 to 63% in a seven-minute treatment. The ozonation process efficiency at pH 10 was 43% and 39% for phenol and TOC removal, respectively. The presence of both metallic ions (Mn2+ and Cu+2) in the ozonation process resulted in a positive effect.

Otimização do processo de extração e isolamento do antimalárico artemisinina a partir de Artemisia annua L.

Malaria is still one of the major diseases in the world, causing physical and economic problems in tropical regions. Artemisinin (Qinghaosu), a natural compound identified in Artemisia annua L. , is an effective drug mainly against cerebral malaria. The action of this drug is immediate and parasitaemia in the treatment of drug-resistant malaria is rapidily reduced, justifying the industrial production of artemisinin. This article focuses on the industrial production of this potent antimalarial drug, including strategies for enhancing yield using inexpensive and easy steps.

Influência do processo de secagem na qualidade do cogumelo shiitake

Edible mushroom are highly perishable foods. Drying is an alternative to provide safe storage. In this work, the effects of some drying parameters on the quality of Shiitake mushroom were investigated: geometry of the raw material (whole and sliced), drying temperature (50 °C and 70 ºC) and final moisture content (5% and 15% wb). Experimental kinetics of drying was built and color and texture analyses were done in fresh and in rehydrated dried product. The effect of parameters was evaluated by analysis of variance and test of multiple comparisons. Drying kinetics showed that drying happened in falling-rate period and sliced mushroom dried at 70 ºC required lesser drying time than other treatments. Mushroom dried at 70 ºC showed less darkening. Drying time affected mushroom quality, evaluated by great hardness, gummosis and darkening.

Proposta metodológica utilizando ferramentas de qualidade na avaliação do processo de pulverização

The present work aimed to create a methodology to evaluate the pulverization process with the use of quality tools. It was listed the primary factors, secondary factors, tertiary factors and, with the check list tool support, the list was elaborated. It was evaluated the factors labor, agriculture machine, material and method of 32 pulverization process before pesticide application, in that each factor received a punctuation, having as total sum of 750 points. The medium punctuation to the factors labor, agriculture machine, material and method was 78; 211; 49; 20 and 94 points, respectively. The sum of the factors points for the 32 processes, the minimum value found was 230 and maximum was 620 points. With the proposed methodology, can be identify which common causes of the processes can affect its result.

Eficiência do processo de recobrimento de sementes de brócolos recobertas com polímero em leito de jorro

Broccoli seeds were coated in a conical-cylindrical spouted bed with an aqueous suspension of hydroxy ethyl cellulose aiming to improve the seeds coating technique using a fluid-dynamic process. An experimental design was applied to investigate the effects of the operating variables: gas temperature, atomizing air pressure and suspension flow rate on the germination of the seeds and on the process efficiency. Results indicated that the operating variables affect both the coating process efficiency and the germination ability. However, the analysis didn t identify differences between the germination potential of coated and uncoated seeds. Coated seeds absorbed up to 10 percent less moisture than the uncoated ones, when the environment temperature and humidity were controlled over a period of time.

O papel da interação no processo de ensino-aprendizagem de português para alunos surdos em uma escola inclusiva

In this article, it is discussed the role of interaction in the process of teaching and learning Portuguese of deaf students at an inclusive school. In the context where the research took place, the hearing teacher does not understand sign language, and there are, in her classroom, hearing students and four deaf students, being three of them sign language users. As the communication between the hearing teacher and the deaf students occurred in different codes - Portuguese and Brazilian sign language - and having a social-interactional approach of language (MOITA LOPES, 1986; FREIRE, 1999), we observed if the interaction among the subjects enabled the deaf students to understand what was being taught. The results showed that the fact of having four deaf students in the same classroom allowed them to work in a cooperative way. Besides, the sign language became more visible in this institution. On the other hand, the interaction between the teacher and her deaf students revealed to be of little significance to the learning process of this small group.